There aren’t supposed to be this many unknowns this late in July. That’s not how the NBA offseason usually operates.
But in Denver specifically, three roster spots remain vacant, and the specter of the second apron looms over the 12 spots that are occupied. Around the league, too, at least one major variable hasn’t been sorted out yet. Even commissioner Adam Silver joked about it during an event Thursday, acknowledging that “where LeBron plays will affect the schedule. I’d like him to make his announcement already so we can finish the schedule.”
And NBA beat writers around the country would like the teams they cover to get their business done already so everyone can leave on pre-planned vacations without needing to sweat.
This Nuggets beat writer will be doing just that, starting this weekend. So it seemed like a fun time to pretend the offseason is over, power-rank both conferences based on what’s happened so far, and then possibly return to this and laugh at it later. Where will James sign? Will the Nuggets make a trade? Will the Kawhi Leonard trade between the Clippers and Raptors go through or be revoked? Will restricted free agents like Jalen Duren, Peyton Watson, and Bennedict Mathurin reach agreements with their teams?
The idea of this list is to predict the final regular-season standings for the 2026-27 season — not to evaluate playoff or championship capability. Included in parentheses will be each team’s place last season.
Western Conference
This exercise should pretty quickly illuminate that, for the first time in years, the West is the weaker overall conference. That’s despite the fact that five of the top seven or eight players in the world reside on this side of the country. It certainly remains the top-heavy conference, carried by the two championship favorites. But after those two? A weird landscape, with strong potential for the same six playoff locks as last year.
1. San Antonio Spurs (2nd): Wemby has tasted the Finals, and they left behind a sour flavor. His first career MVP trophy feels imminent if he can play the requisite games. Tobias Harris was a solid free-agency addition, addressing a clear need. The West champs just got a little deeper.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder (1st): And the runners-up just got a little shallower. OKC’s summer has been highlighted by a pair of salary dumps from the back end of the roster. Without Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe, Sam Presti is leaning on his draft acumen to fill the gaps. He added Aday Mara to a loaded center depth chart and Bennett Stirtz to a formidable ball-handling hierarchy that already features SGA, Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell.
3. Minnesota Timberwolves (6th): Tim Connelly wasted no time breaking up the Julius Randle-Rudy Gobert frontcourt once he decided it had reached its ceiling. Trading for LaMelo Ball was the risk of the offseason in the West, but the carnivalesque point guard does raise that ceiling. Analytically (ducks), he’s one of the league’s best at elevating entire lineups. He and Ant-Man will be must-see TV.
4. Denver Nuggets (3rd): The Nuggets haven’t earned any benefit of the doubt against Minnesota specifically, so they’re sliding to fourth on this list via a forecasted head-to-head tiebreaker going against them. Their offseason may or may not have a few plot twists yet to come. Whatever happens, a healthy Nikola Jokic gives Denver one of the highest regular-season floors in the NBA.
5. Houston Rockets (5th): Their 2025-26 season was sort of a disaster, but the Rockets never really got a chance to see the team they had envisioned when they traded for Kevin Durant. Season-ending injuries to point guard Fred VanVleet and center Steven Adams took away massive parts of their identity. This is a sensible run-it-back team, especially if Reed Sheppard keeps developing and Ime Udoka learns to trust him more.
6. Los Angeles Lakers (4th): The only team you can definitively say will not be getting LeBron James. Nobody attempted a more dramatic supporting cast makeover this offseason. And the Lakers might not be better for it — even if they’re theoretically better designed in Luka Doncic’s image.
7. Portland Trail Blazers (7th): Damian Lillard and Ja Morant would’ve been the most fun backcourt in the league in 2023. In 2026, their partnership is the most questionable aspect of Portland’s starting lineup. Still, this is a deep roster with several enviable contracts and a few different guard combinations to try if Dame and Ja cause too many defensive headaches.
8. Utah Jazz (15th): Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Walker Kessler were going to form one of the most fascinating frontcourts to watch in the entire league. Alas, Utah made a disciplined business decision to trade Kessler to Los Angeles. It was never meant to be. Jusuf Nurkic slots in as the starting center now. Not as fun. But the Jazz won’t be a walkover anymore. All eyes are on No. 2 pick Darryn Peterson.
9. Dallas Mavericks (12th): Cooper Flagg will have Dallas back in the playoff picture by the end of his rookie contract.
10. Golden State Warriors (10th): For those 24 glorious hours when everyone thought they were getting Anthony Davis and LeBron, the Warriors were maybe on the verge of top-six status.
11. Memphis Grizzlies (13th): The post-Ja era begins with an exciting trio of young talents in Cam Boozer, Zach Edey and Cedric Coward.
12. Phoenix Suns (8th): One of the pleasant surprises of last season is due for a step back. Who doesn’t want to watch Jalen Green and Miles Bridges trade shots?
13. Los Angeles Clippers (9th): The NBA’s longest active streak of consecutive winning seasons (15) should finally come to an end as the Clippers enter rebuild mode with a core of Darius Garland, rookie Keaton Wagler, Rui Hachimura and Brandon Ingram (pending that pesky Kawhi probe).
14. New Orleans Pelicans (11th): Maybe someday, the Pelicans will actually pull the trigger on a Trey Murphy III trade. He would be fun to watch on a relevant team.
15. Sacramento Kings (14th): Not much to say here, except that Darius Acuff Jr. might be a lot of fun.
Eastern Conference
Now, to the good stuff. The 2026-27 Eastern Conference has a chance to be one of the most fun regular-season playoff races in NBA history. Almost everyone is trying to win. Quite a few teams with high hopes will end up bitterly disappointed. First place and last place are the only two spots on this list that feel somewhat certain. The rest is a complete mess, in the best possible way.
1. New York Knicks (3rd): Mitchell Robinson’s departure sort of resembles Denver’s loss of Bruce Brown after winning the title. But when your championship tax is a bench player, your window is still wide open. The Knicks return a starting five that just posted a 12.5 playoff net rating.
2. Cleveland Cavaliers (2nd): This is without knowing if they’ll acquire a certain someone in free agency. Cleveland still has a strong infrastructure, even after that Eastern Conference Finals embarrassment. If Evan Mobley has another offensive leap in him, that could level the playing field with New York as much as LeBron could.
3. Philadelphia 76ers (7th): Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe and Jaylen Brown should provide enough firepower to carry the Sixers to a strong regular season even when Joel Embiid’s frequent injury absences are accounted for — even if there might not be enough collective durability to survive a two-month playoff run.
4. Indiana Pacers (14th): Maybe it’s unfair to Tyrese Haliburton to expect him to instantly relaunch this team to home-court advantage in the first round, when he’s fresh off not only a torn Achilles tendon but also a debilitating case of shingles. But whatever. The Pacers should be legit. Ivica Zubac and Kelly Oubre Jr. are interesting wrinkles from the 2025 Finals team.
5. Toronto Raptors (5th): That’s assuming that Kawhi Leonard is allowed to be a Toronto Raptor. With the blockbuster trade delayed as the NBA finishes its investigation of the Clippers for possible cap circumvention, Toronto is a contender in a holding pattern.
6. Boston Celtics (2nd): There’s a fair argument that even after the controversial Jaylen Brown trade, Boston’s 2026-27 rotation is better on paper than the 2025-26 roster that upended all expectations by earning the No. 2 seed. That Jayson Tatum, fully recovered now, is a better player than Brown, filling Brown’s shoes. That center Mitchell Robinson, when healthy, is an upgrade from Neemias Queta, who simply slides down the depth chart. That Paul George, for all the criticism his contract takes, is a vast improvement from starting Sam Hauser or Jordan Walsh. Nonetheless, the Celtics messed with their karmic balance by trading Brown for so little.
7. Detroit Pistons (1st): It wouldn’t be all that surprising if the Pistons have a late-summer move up their sleeve. Without one, their idleness sure looks like complacency. Detroit played hard enough to overcome its roster flaws and become an elite regular-season team last year. The East won’t be so forgiving this time around.
8. Orlando Magic (8th): The biggest change Orlando has made? Firing Jamahl Mosley and hiring Sean Sweeney. Maybe the cultural reset can yield results more on par with last year’s expectations, when the Magic entered the season as a top-three contender in the East. Or maybe its problems run a little deeper. This will be a consequential season in Orlando.
9. Miami Heat (9th): But Giannis! The Heat will have one of the most physically imposing front lines in the NBA with Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo and Andrew Wiggins. Maybe this placement is disrespectful toward Antetokounmpo, who’s more than capable of carrying a team to unexpected heights. But Miami’s roster still has a lot of question marks.
10. Atlanta Hawks (6th): In the absence of a significant move to upgrade their roster, the Hawks seem like they could be a victim of the conference getting better around them. They were an admirable No. 6 seed last season, taking a 2-1 series lead on the eventual champs in the first round. The roster’s ceiling just isn’t high enough with CJ McCollum, Jalen Johnson and Nickeil Alexander-Walker as the primary scoring threats.
11. Charlotte Hornets (9th): Pre-LaMelo trade, the Hornets would’ve been a trendy top-six pick. Now, they seem willing to dawdle around the back end of the Play-In Tournament for a little bit longer. Another team with a lot of like about it, but ultimately not enough shot creation.
12. Washington Wizards (15th): If Anthony Davis and Trae Young are healthy and bought in, there’s no reason the Wizards can’t be a Play-In team in AJ Dybantsa’s rookie campaign.
13. Brooklyn Nets (13th): Michael Porter Jr. and Julius Randle. League Pass darlings. The Nets won’t be good, but even they should be incentivized to try to win games, since they don’t have their own 2027 first-round pick.
14. Chicago Bulls (12th): No. 4 draft pick Caleb Wilson has been talking the talk at Summer League. It would be great news for the NBA if he can walk the walk and put Chicago back on the map.
15.Milwaukee Bucks (11th): Worst team in the league, suddenly, and it might not be close.
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