Logan Kilgore, in Aplin’s mind, was gnawing on a bad idea.

“Dude,” Aplin implored. “You cannot do this.”

In early 2021, Kilgore’s playing career was finished, he told Aplin, and he wanted to get into coaching.

Kilgore maybe could have linked up with his former college coach, Rick Stockstill, but Stockstill counseled him to try to expand his network.

He turned to Aplin, a former rival Sun Belt quarterback and by-now longtime friend, and asked about getting in with him and new Arkansas State head coach Butch Jones.

The hiring cycle had already passed, though, and Aplin told Kilgore he didn’t think they had anything.

Maybe next year.

Then Kilgore called again. He’d talked to his wife, Brookey.

“I really want to get in,” Kilgore said, as Aplin recalled recently. “We saved a little bit of money and I’m willing to work for free.”

Aplin tried to talk him out of it.

“I’m like, Kilgore. Logan. We are not doing that, dude,” Aplin said. “You’re not going to ask Ms. Brookey to move from California to Jonesboro, Arkansas. No shot.”

Kilgore, though, refused to take no for an answer. He insisted. Any chance, any role would do. No pay required.

Aplin and Kilgore had been friends since they played against each other in college — Aplin for Arkansas State and Kilgore at Middle Tennessee State — and worked the Manning Passing Academy together. Aplin knew his buddy knew ball. “He’ll be the best guy we have off the field,” Aplin thought then. He also knew that if Kilgore was dead set on something, he’d find a way.

It took time, but Aplin eventually talked Jones and offensive coordinator Keith Heckendorf into letting Kilgore in the building. Part of the sales job was adding to a just-finalized, carefully selected staff. The other was convincing them that Kilgore really knew he was signing up to move on his own and work for free.

Finally, they said yes.

“We kind of make-shifted my desk, moved my desk back, brought in half a desk for him and we worked in the same office for a whole year,” Aplin said.

Five years later, Logan Kilgore is on the rocketship ride. The 35-year-old is Sean Payton’s new quarterbacks coach in Denver. He’s a key piece of a retooled Broncos staff with Super Bowl ambitions in 2026; the man tasked with coaching Bo Nix to the NFL’s upper echelon.

The move might have come as a surprise to some, given Kilgore was a quality control coach working with tight ends and returners the past three years. Those who know him best, though, say this was only a matter of time. And it may be just the beginning.

“There’s certain people that would put a lot of weight on resume and experience and this and that,” QB Country founder and longtime quarterback trainer David Morris said recently. “Then there’s people that are just stars. Logan has star power. …

“I don’t think it����ap going to be the end of his ascension.”

A formative experience

That Kilgore ever became a prolific college quarterback in the first place was unlikely enough.

He never started a game in high school at Jesuit High in Sacramento, instead backing up Dominic Carmazzi — the son of longtime coach Dan Carmazzi — for his entire tenure.

He slugged his way up the depth chart and to the starting job at juco Bakersfield College, where he caught Stockstill’s eye from a couple of time zones away.

Kilgore redshirted at Middle Tennessee State in 2010, but made his presence felt quickly.

“His leadership skills were on display early in his career,” Stockstill said. “Even in 2010, when he only played in a couple of games, you could see the impact he was having within our team.”

Kilgore, who was not made available for an interview by the Broncos for this story, then started three seasons for Stockstill and over 36 games threw for 7,309 yards and 50 touchdowns.

That performance, among other things, helped him land a counselor position at the Manning Passing Academy for three summers.

Kilgore and Aplin recognized each other there from sharing a conference and hit it off.

Aplin raved about the experience more than a decade later, recalling Archie, Peyton, Eli and Cooper Manning all sitting in a room, talking with the young quarterbacks and taking questions. Archie would cruise around in a golf cart, taking in the camp. Peyton plopped down with Kilgore, Aplin and Louisiana-Lafayette’s Blaine Gautier — far from the biggest names at the camp — one night and had dinner with them.

It all left an impression.

So, too, did Kilgore.

“He struck up a relationship with the Mannings,” Stockstill said.

This is a common happening for Kilgore. People who meet him like him. They want to be around him. They gravitate toward him. They’re inclined to seek him out for a good time, for advice or to see if they can help.

“He has an optimism and an eagerness that is authentic and it����ap one of these things that, no matter the situation or the room or the group of people that he’s around, he’s going to bring some energy to it and optimism to it,” Morris said. “He’s kind of a light spirit and I think that goes a long way at the quarterback position.”

Morris and Kilgore met around the same time. Morris had just launched QB Country and had Kilgore as part of his first true draft preparation class along with Alabama’s A.J. McCarron.

Kilgore knew he’d likely go undrafted. He ended up with several teams interested in signing him as a free agent, but one stood out above the rest: Sean Payton and the New Orleans Saints.

He only spent that offseason there before playing in the CFL for a half-decade, but planted seeds that would blossom nearly 10 years later.

“That����ap where the relationship started,” Aplin said. “For a free agent to go in there and make the impact on the head coach and keep that relationship despite not having spent multiple years on the team, that tells you about the person. Especially with a guy like Sean, where the football IQ is through the roof.”

New Orleans, of course, also happens to be homebase for the Mannings.

Arch-type

Kilgore found a rhythm during the 2021 season at Arkansas State.

He batted ideas around with Aplin and talked ball.

He did basically whatever the staff needed.

Among his responsibilities was to advance teams ahead on Arkansas State’s schedule. They’d play Saturday and then on Sunday, Kilgore would present the next opponent to the staff.

“He’d come in and give a full report on them,” Jones said. “Not just personnel, but schematics. There’d be an accompanying video. Just the work ethic and the pride and the attention to detail he put into that, I knew at a relatively early stage that this person had some special qualities to him and I knew he was going to be really successful.”

Along the way, Kilgore’s phone rang.

It was Peyton Manning.

He wanted to know if Kilgore had an interest in coaching his nephew, Arch, at Isidore Newman High in New Orleans.

Arch was going to be a senior in high school and was already a megaprospect, recruited by every major program in the country.

Kilgore considered the offer, talked it through with Jones and others, and ultimately jumped at it.

“We were all kind of surprised, like, why the hell would he want to come coach 2A football for a year?” Arch Manning, now the starter at the University of Texas and a likely top NFL Draft prospect in 2027, told The Post. “I remember we had a call and I was like, ‘This is the guy we need.’ We were speaking the same language. He could help me grow. He had already broken down all of our film that year and was saying how he could help us.

“It was a no-brainer.”

Kilgore had strategic reasons for wanting the job. He’d have every college coach in America coming to his office to talk about Arch. He’d meet all kinds of football people. He’d expand the network.

More than that, though, he relished the chance to push a guy known as the best at his level.

“He wanted the expectations that come along with coaching and developing a player like Arch Manning and the scrutiny that would come along with that,” Jones said. “That����ap him.”

Kilgore already knew the Mannings, including Arch’s dad, Cooper, and grandfather Archie, well and clearly had earned their collective trust.

He got to campus and got to work with Arch, building an offense and a base of fundamentals “from the ground up,” Arch recalled.

This was not going to be summer camp. Arch had his pick of colleges, but Kilgore put him through the gauntlet anyway.

“He’d been through it, so I asked him a million questions,” Arch said. “Just to have him for support throughout the crazy recruiting process, I asked him for advice on that. He helped me grow as a player and as a person. It was good.

“I like to think we were friends, too, but he would get on my ass and coach me and hold me to a standard. Which I appreciated because I needed it.”

Arch, back then, would too frequently ease into practice. Kilgore noticed.

“I’d miss a few throws early or my feet wouldn’t be real warm early and then I’d get better as practice would go along,” Arch said. “He’d tell me, ‘We’ve got to start fast.’ So I’ve always taken that to the college level but I definitely remember it from him.”

Payton’s plan

Payton resigned from the New Orleans job after the 2021 season and was still working for Fox late 2022 as Kilgore weighed his next move after Isidore Newman.

He figured Payton would try to get back in the NFL, Aplin said, but couldn’t exactly wait around to find out.

Jones hired him back to coach Arkansas State’s tight ends in December. Less than two months later, Payton landed the Broncos job.

Kilgore got the call and packed for Denver.

He worked the past three years mostly with tight ends and returners as a quality control coach, but the football world once again showed just how small it can be.

Payton, of course, had known Kilgore since 2014.

Peyton Manning lives in Denver and is a regular around the facility and the organization.

After Kilgore’s first year, he got tabbed to work the Senior Bowl in Mobile, Alabama.

Morris, who also trains Arch Manning, reached out and told Kilgore to keep an eye on another one of his guys: Oregon quarterback Bo Nix.

“I remember that week I told Logan, ‘Hey, take care of Bo this week,’” Morris said. “And I told Bo just how good of a guy Logan is and how much Bo was going to love the energy that he has.”

Two years later, Kilgore is Nix’s position coach.

Payton knew somewhere along the way he’d either lose quarterbacks coach Davis Webb to another team or to an internal promotion.

Last month, Payton promoted Webb to offensive coordinator and later announced that Webb will serve as the team’s primary play-caller. In a move that got substantially less fanfare, Payton also promoted Kilgore.

“He’s played the position. He’s sharp,” Payton said last month. “It was an easy transition for him. Like, immediate. When it can come from within the building, that����ap really good.”

To a casual observer, the move might have looked a little odd.

“You don’t know his story and it looks like he doesn’t have a real long sheet of coaching career,” Aplin said. “But when you peel back the layers, you’re like holy (crap). This guy has (expletive) done it. And every place he’s ever gone, he’s made that place better.”

Several people around Kilgore and the Broncos said he had the quarterbacks coach job in his sights all along. They also figure Payton knew Kilgore would be the next man up, or at least that he anticipated Kilgore would earn it along the way.

“Sean knows him a lot better than just two years or three years,” Stockstill said.

Added Jones, “Sean Payton does not do anything by chance. Everything he does is very calculated. I guarantee you the way Sean looked at it is that Logan had a three-year interview process. … When you’re in the building, every single day is a job interview.”

‘That����ap my guy’

Arch Manning has faced an unending deluge of attention for years.

He tries to avoid extra interviews if he can help it.

When the 21-year-old quarterback called a reporter on a recent Wednesday night, though, he made clear why.

“I’ll always talk about Logan because that����ap my guy,” Manning said. “He taught me so much. … I still call him. I still ask him for advice.”

When Kilgore got promoted, Manning fielded a FaceTime call from Nix, who was interested in what to expect from the new guy at the front of his position group.

“Logan’s the guy you want to play golf with and get a beer with, but he’s also a hell of a coach and he’ll hold you to a high standard,” Arch Manning said. “I can’t say enough good things about him. … When someone has a passion for the sport and for their job, you can feel it. That����ap why I know all those guys in Denver will love him. He’s excited to come to work every day. He can (B.S.) with you, but he can also get on your ass.

“They’re going to love him and there’s no doubt he’s going to do a hell of a job.”

Morris has known both for years and believes it����ap a strong match.

“Logan’s going to coach Bo hard,” he said. “He’s going to continue to challenge him and grow him. He deeply cares about people and that����ap important. There’s all kind of opinions out there on player and coach relationships and all that. Some of it����ap real and some of it����ap B.S. But Logan’s going to love Bo and Bo’s going to love him back. That matters. That really matters.

“Those guys are going to really trust each other and that����ap important when you’re trying to win a championship.”

Morris calls Kilgore supremely confident but not arrogant and “one of my favorite people in the world.” Aplin calls him “the most emotionally intelligent person I’ve ever been around.” Jones lands on the word authentic. He’s a terrific storyteller. Happy-go-lucky.

“He’s going to walk in the room and he’s going to be confident and not intimidated,” Stockstill said. “He’ll have his plan, hold them accountable and then the big thing with the quarterback position is you’ve got to be a great communicator. If you don’t know something, it����ap OK to say, ‘I don’t know.’ He’s not going to try to fluff them and do all that stuff or try to impress them. What you see is what you get. I think he’ll be a great addition to the quarterback room there in Denver.

“I think he’ll do a jam-up job.”

More than one person pointed out a potential future consideration: Arch Manning will be preparing for the draft a year from now and Kilgore could already be an interesting coordinator prospect.

They will only potentially re-unite if Kilgore excels as a quarterbacks coach, but who is going to doubt that at this point? Multiple people in the Broncos building see a parallel between Kilgore and Declan Doyle, who went from Denver tight ends coach to play-calling offensive coordinator in Baltimore in two years.

Payton’s seen this movie before. He acknowledged at the NFL Combine that, “The time clock for these young coaches that are good is quicker than you might think.”

That’s Kilgore so far.

Five years ago, he took a job for free. Four years ago, he became a high school offensive coordinator. Three years ago, he landed a gig as a quality control coach.

He bet on himself. He and his wife, Jones points out, sacrificed more than most might be willing to.

It����ap all paid off quite nicely.

“You can really see the Manning influence,” Jones said. “You can see, hopefully, the Arkansas State influence and you can see the Sean Payton influence. If you look at our lives and our careers, they are byproducts of our experiences and how you’ve been raised in this profession. “I think we’re going to hear the Logan Kilgore name for many, many years in this profession.”

“I know the type of player that I am,” Manning said Monday as he answered another round of questions about a in last week’s win over UTEP. “I know I’m going to play better and we’re going to be better as an offense.”

This week’s matchup with Sam Houston State, a program in only its third season of FCS-level competition, would typically be an afterthought for in the country.

But Manning’s poor play has turned the Longhorns’ final game before the Southeastern Conference schedule into a must-watch to see if he can deliver anything close to those preseason Heisman Trophy predictions.

If he struggles again, a suddenly doubtful fanbase turns its worries into a five-alarm fire. And even if he plays well, the result and Manning’s stat line will likely be dismissed as coming against inferior competition.

Stats are one thing. Just passing the eye test this week would be a start.

Manning’s play so far has stoked the embers of doubt. He struggled badly in a season-opening win against Ohio State. He started slow the next week but rallied with four touchdown passes against San Jose State.

His day against UTEP was downright rough. Manning was 11 of 25 passing for 114 yards with one touchdown and interception. He had a streak of 10 consecutive incompletions. He side-armed some throws and missed open receivers. There were boos late in the first half.

Through three games, Manning is completing just 55% of his passes.

“It����ap frustrating because I know I’m better than that,” Manning said. “But you know, we’re going to be better this week and get clicking on offense. I’m excited to get going.”

Texas coach Steve Sarkisian promised patience with a player hitting the first adversity of his career.

“������’s a guy who’s had an awesome life, they way he’s grown up, the people he’s been surrounded by,” Sarkisian said. “I think you learn a lot about yourself through adversity and overcoming adversity. … When he gets on the other side of it, I think all of this is going to serve well not only for him, but for us as a team.”

Texas wide receiver Parker Livingstone caught three touchdown passes in the first two games. Manning badly overthrew him on a wide open route in the end zone against UTEP.

Livingstone said the wide receivers can help Manning by delivering more big plays when given the chance.

“When he throws us the ball, it����ap our job to make a guy miss and create an explosive,” Livingstone said.

___

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Maybe the explanation for his slow starts is that simple. Nix is the Broncos’ Mr. October. His play changes with the leaves and pumpkin spice lattes.

It was this time a year ago that Nix looked like a baby giraffe on roller skates. And it only got worse in Week 4 when he couldn’t grip the football in the rain against the Jets.

And here we are in September again, and Nix isn’t exactly inspiring confidence. It was one week. And specifically Week 1. But man, the offense was ugly, forgettable and boring, wasn’t it? Sean Payton seems fine with Nix, blames himself for the play-calling and shields his quarterback from criticism to such a degree that it is weird.

We have not reached the “everyone freak out stage.” Not yet. But with games on the horizon against the Chargers and Bengals, it will be time to worry if Nix plays poorly this week.

This is suddenly a scary matchup against the Colts after they demolished the Dolphins. They looked like a playoff team last Sunday. The Broncos did not.

No quarterback performed worse in a Week 1 win than Nix.

“I know I can be a lot better,” he admitted after Wednesday’s practice.

What happened against the Titans reminded me of Texas’ Arch Manning at Ohio State. We weren’t sure what it was going to look like, but we know it wasn’t supposed to look like that. Nix threw off balance. He threw into double coverage. He threw sidearm.

He finished with two interceptions and lost his first fumble in 19 NFL games. Sometimes disappointment is traced to expectations. And that definitely applies to Nix after he led the Broncos to their first playoff berth since 2015.

My concern is one that surfaced over the summer. He never caught fire in June, failed to wow in training camp, save for a few scrimmage series against the 49ers and Cardinals, and remained uneven in two preseason games. His play has been a mirror of the offense. There are glimpses of improvement that are quickly overshadowed by long bouts of ineffectiveness.

The Broncos can win Sunday because their defense is so (bleeping) good. But they cannot stand more carelessness.

Nix needs to stop chasing perfection and focus on precision.

There’s nothing wrong with a couple of first downs and teeing up Vance Joseph’s charges with a long punt. Nix knows who he can be. He has to understand who he is on game day. If he’s not feeling it, put the ball in your pocket.

You can’t lose to the Colts because you can’t control an impulse. Nix, a coach’s son through and through, recognizes this. But will he do it?

Well……

“In the future, maybe not be so aggressive,” Nix said. “But at the same time, it����ap what makes quarterbacks good. It����ap a fine line.”

It really isn’t. It is a flashing neon sign in the construction zone at Dove Valley, screaming, “Proceed with caution.” This is not about taking the wag out of the puppy’s tail. We want Nix to play with passion and enthusiasm, but he must be more strategic.

Some of you don’t see it. You see Nix as the face of the franchise, the future, the reason for hope. And it makes sense. I was right there with you after last season. But give me space to remind you that Nix never went on a heater this summer. He has earned our faith that everything will soon be all right. The time is now to minimize the wrong.

“It����ap not about the stats and perfection, for me it����ap a standard I have for myself. With our defense, we can definitely make sure at times to give them great field position and we will get the ball back and go right back to work,” Nix said. “Overall, we want to play complementary football, but we definitely have high standards for our offense.”

Nix must prove he can do it this month.

In September games, he has completed 60.7% of his passes with two touchdowns and six interceptions in 178 attempts. In all other games, including the postseason, he boasts a 66 completion percentage with 28 touchdowns and eight picks.

Amazingly, he owns a 3-2 September record because the Broncos have held opponents to 9.3 points per game in the wins. If Payton always has Nix’s back, the defense is his bodyguard. There are very few times when a quarterback will be smiling after three turnovers and 40 pass attempts.

In his second season, Nix is smarter, better prepared. But there are things he must clean up, punches he must counter. Regardless of what Payton calls, Nix has to iron out the wrinkles. He cannot throw like he’s shooting a fallaway jumper or with his shoulder flying open. These are easy fixes given his film study and work ethic.

The other part is harder. As the Titans showed, Nix will face defenses determined to keep him in the pocket and force him to throw outside the numbers. Those passes must be made with conviction.

And don’t let the mind lie to the eyes. Be prudent. Nix does not have to carry the Broncos.

The best way to shake a September Slump? Remember that his teammates have his back.

“He’s a competitor. He challenges himself to be perfect. It’s something I love to see from a quarterback. That’s who he is. But no single person is going to win the game for us,” Broncos receiver Courtland Sutton said. “I love looking at him — it doesn’t need to be this whole monologue or inspirational speech — and just saying, ‘Hey, bro, we’ve got you.’ ”

What Arch Manning was to Texas fans, Julian Lewis is to Buffs Nation. The 5-star recruiting jewel. The savior. The darling of the morning talk shows. The future we want now. Now, now, now, now.

He’s also 17 years old. A kid in the world’s candy store. During the Buffs’ spring game this past April, “Ju Ju” was seen sporting a black diamond Darth Vader necklace. He reportedly owns a Lamborghini, a Dodge Ram and a Tesla Cybertruck.

Coach Prime went with sling over bling. If Lewis was ready to be CU’s starting quarterback from the jump, wouldn’t Deion Sanders have run him out there with the first-team offense against big, bad Georgia Tech?

Or, more to the point, actually played him against the Yellow Jackets?

“Sometimes you don’t want to rush things; sometimes you don’t want to delay things,” the Buffs’ third-year football coach said Tuesday at his weekly news conference. “You want to make sure the timing is right.

“I don’t think the time (to play Lewis) was appropriate last week. I really don’t, (with) the way the game was flowing, the rhythm of the game. But this week, I made up my mind already, before now. He’s going to play.”

Groovy. He should. Let the kid splash around in shallow waters for a while before you chuck him into the deep end.

Me? I start Sprinkle in Lewis. If the former stinks it up or if the latter lights it up, reverse the order for that trip to Houston on Sept. 12 — the next true test on CU’s slate.

Let’s be real here: Delaware is to Georgia Tech what yours truly is to George Clooney. The Buffs are 23.5-point favorites Saturday. The Blue Hens gave up 200 yards on the ground to Delaware State in their opener. Coach Prime should be able to pound the rock, or mix and match personnel to his heart’s content.

Delaware on Tuesday morning ranked . The Hens are the closest the Buffs have to a “get-right” game all season, depending on what you think of Wyoming (FPI: 101) on Sept. 20 or Arizona (FPI: 51) on Nov. 1. The Buffs ranked 57th; Georgia Tech, 31st. (As with all computer rankings at Labor Day, these things will be extremely fluid until the end of the month.)

Sanders said Tuesday that Lewis will make his collegiate debut this weekend. He didn’t say when. Or how much Ju Ju will play. He kinda-sorta laughed off the idea of starting the 5-star recruit out of Georgia.

“I know when I’m going to see him,” Prime said. “You just don’t know when you’re going to see him. I know when we’re going to see him.”

Salter deserves one more chance to keep his starting job. Lewis deserves a shot to try and push him. If the latter forces your hand with his play, so be it. If it’s a tie on all angles, go with the one who drives the Lambo.

The deck at CU was always stacked against Salter. He’s got one season of eligibility left. This is his last Hail Mary before a winter of NFL prep.

He’s going to have to start completing them. Because Lewis is the one Coach Prime has to keep happy. The one he needs to keep around.

The teen spurned USC to sign with CU. He’s got an NIL portfolio to rival a young Shedeur Sanders, and endorsement deals to consider. As with all recruiting pitches, you’d have to feel certain promises were made.

Lewis didn’t choose Boulder to sit. Dude can steer that Tesla through the transfer portal anytime he likes.

“He’s playing, all right? He’s playing,” Coach Prime continued. “You’ve got to understand, I love that kid, man. I really do. And I want him to be extremely successful.”

Salter, meanwhile, was just OK against Georgia Tech: 17 completions on 28 attempts for 159 yards, with one score through the air and another on the ground.

He was also wild on some third-down throws late, a sin magnified by Shedeur’s unflappable consistency in the clutch. There were times Salter tried to force a pass rather than tuck and run for a sure gain that would’ve moved the chains.

“You don’t think he knows that?” Coach Prime said. “I’m pretty sure the internet has told him, you know, if I didn’t tell him.

“I don’t have to babysit. These are some grown men getting handsomely paid. I’m pretty sure they understand (that) the objective is to win and to exercise their skill set to its best possible usage. He knows what his gifts are. He’s just got to use them.”

Saturday would be nice. Lewis gives you the best chance to win the internet. Salter’s probably got one more chance to prove he gives you the best chance to win a game.

1. Late starts, lopsided games

A stacked lineup of night games along the West Coast on the first fully loaded Saturday was devoid of drama, except in the Pacific Northwest.

Washington State needed a late field goal to secure a 13-10 victory over Idaho and avoid what would have been a sour start to coach Jimmy Rogers’ tenure.

Across the state, Washington used a dominant fourth quarter to put away Colorado State 38-21 and (partially) justify the optimism accompanying Jedd Fisch’s second season on Montlake.

A quick check of the numbers suggests the game should not have been close after halftime: The Huskies essentially doubled CSU’s yardage total, converted 8 of 14 third downs and averaged 5.5 yards per rush; but the margin was only 10 midway through the fourth quarter. Then tailback Jonah Coleman barreled into the end zone — he had 177 yards in total — and the Huskies were able to exhale.

All in all, the evening unfolded ideally for UW: A somewhat ugly victory over a Mountain West foe in Week 1 does far more to accelerate improvement than a blowout win over an FCS team.

And there were several of those, folks:

— Oregon, USC and Brigham Young offered a triple-whammy of wipeouts, defeating Montana State, Missouri State and Portland State by a combined score of 201-26.

— Arizona and Arizona State won by multiple touchdowns at home over Hawaii and NAU, respectively.

The former aired on TNT, which has joined the Big 12’s broadcast lineup this season. The latter was shown on ESPN+, at least for part of the game. The feed crashed in the second half, forcing ASU athletic director Graham Rossini .

— Utah and won by multiple touchdowns on the road in Pac-12 legacy games over UCLA and Oregon State, respectively.

The Utes were sharp with a new offense and new quarterback and the same old punishing play at the line of scrimmage. The Bears led throughout in Corvallis, thanks to a rookie quarterback.

We’ll have more on Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele in a moment. First, let����ap address the Beavers.

2. Problems for the ‘Pac-2’

Actually, let����ap address the Beavers and the Cougars, because it could very well be a long slog for the Pac-12 holdovers in their final year before the conference reforms.

Washington State managed just 211 yards against Idaho and failed to meet our low expectations for the start of the Jimmy Rogers era.

So much is stacked against the Cougars this season after they lost Jake Dickert and John Mateer. But the refresh clearly is more comprehensive than even we imagined. The Cougars rushed for three yards against an FCS opponent — on 22 attempts, no less — that itself has a new coaching staff.

Meanwhile, the Beavers were completely outclassed in the first game of Trent Bray’s second season. (A few more performances like that, and we’re not sure there will be a Year 3 for Bray.)

Oregon State trailed 14-0 midway through the first quarter, Bray looked angry and frustrated all game and new quarterback Maalik Murphy, the source of so much hope in Corvallis, was no better than any of his immediate predecessors.

It was a deeply disappointing performance compared to what was expected. If Oregon State doesn’t make major strides quickly, the door into the postseason will slam shut before October arrives.

3. Hot Seat status check

Bray isn’t the only second-year coach in charge of his alma mater with plenty to prove this season: UCLA’s DeShaun Foster is riding shotgun. And the Bruins looked as bad as the Beavers did in their 43-10 loss to Utah in the Rose Bowl.

The Hotline has seen nothing from Bray or Foster through two offseasons and 13 games to suggest either is capable of changing the current trajectory. Frankly, they look overmatched.

On the other hand, three coaches who entered the 2025 season under elevated pressure delivered impressive performances.

Lincoln Riley and USC walloped Missouri State 73-13, the highest-scoring game for the Trojans since 1930.

Justin Wilcox and Cal thumped Oregon State 34-15, a huge victory for the Bears to make their bowl math work.

Brent Brennan and Arizona drubbed Hawaii 40-6, a score more impressive than it appears.

While it was the first game of Brennan’s second season, the Rainbow Warriors beat Stanford in Week 0 and had, in theory, worked through all the glitches that accompany season openers.

But Arizona was far more efficient Saturday night, forcing five turnovers and committing none.

The lopsided victories guarantee nothing for Brennan, Wilcox or Riley as they navigate critical seasons. But if you’re envisioning scenarios in which each coach secures his job for 2026, the paths imagined probably match the performances that played out Saturday.

4. QB watch

The Hotline watched all or parts of 18 games over the course of 14 hours Saturday, with our attention focused on the new quarterbacks across the land, from Ohio State’s Julian Sayin and Texas’ Arch Manning to Washington’s Demond Williams Jr. and WSU’s Jaxon Potter.

The most impressive new quarterback (relative to our expectations)? Cal’s Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, the freshman who signed with Oregon last winter, was on the Ducks’ Rose Bowl roster, then transferred to Cal in early January.

Sagapolutele is a 6-foot-3 lefty who completed 20 of 30 passes for three touchdowns and no interceptions and looked like a future star. He delivered the ball on time and on target, in tight windows where only Cal’s receivers could reach it. He displayed touch when touch was required and threw with juice when juice was needed.

We knew Sagapolutele was talented and the most important recruit of the Wilcox era. But he was better than expected — far better than expected — and just might be the missing piece that pushes Cal into the eight- or nine-win realm.

5. Conference hierarchy

The biggest winner from a stellar series of matchups across the country? Nobody.

We’ll call the Power Four quest for supremacy a tentative draw through Week 1, pending the outcome of intriguing games Sunday and Monday.

Here are the records of the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC against each other:

ACC: 2-2, with Florida State’s win over Alabama as the headliner.

Big 12: 1-3, with Utah’s blowout at UCLA as the lone victory.

Big Ten: 2-1, with Ohio State’s takedown of Texas atop the list.

SEC: 3-2, with LSU’s win at Clemson somewhat offsetting the losses by Texas and Alabama.

We’ll take a deeper dive into the power conference pecking order after the holiday weekend schedule is complete and then each week through the first month of the season.

Success in the inter-conference duels isn’t merely about bragging rights on social media. It will impact the College Football Playoff selection process.

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with marquee matchups, but the drama tilts decidedly to the right — to the eastern half of the country and, in particular, the southeastern corner.

LSU-Clemson, Alabama-Florida State and Notre Dame-Miami are the biggest games of the holiday weekend, along with Texas-Ohio State, as the 2025 season begins in full force.

Meanwhile, the most intriguing game in the Mountain and Pacific time zones matches a team that finished 12th in the Big Ten last season against a team that finished 13th in the Big 12.

We aren’t complaining about Utah’s tangle with UCLA in the Rose Bowl. Matchups involving Pac-12 legacy teams are always worth watching, especially when the participants are desperate to change their trajectories. (To that end, Cal’s visit to Oregon State is worth monitoring, as well.)

Otherwise, the schedule is unlikely to resonate nationally.

Arizona State, Brigham Young, Oregon, USC and Washington State all play FCS opponents.

Arizona and Washington host Mountain West foes.

Colorado has an ACC opponent, Georgia Tech, but kickoff is Friday.

The first full Saturday of the season is a decidedly Eastern Time Zone affair.

To the picks …

Games involving FCS teams not includedAll times Pacific

Georgia Tech (-4.5) at Colorado

Kickoff: 6 p.m. on ESPN (Friday)
Comment: The line reflects lowered expectations for the Buffaloes without Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter. How will new quarterback Kaidon Salter, a transfer from Liberty, perform? It depends largely on an offensive line that has been second-rate for two seasons. That said, the spread looks a few points too large. Pick: Colorado

Texas (+3) at Ohio State

Kickoff: 10 a.m. on Fox
Comment: The super-mega showdown marking the start of the Arch Manning era in Austin could be a one-sided affair — and not in favor of the home team. We expect the Longhorns to be in mid-season form, or close to it, and control the game from start to finish. One storyline that hasn’t received enough attention: the impact of changes to Ohio State’s coaching staff. Pick: Texas

Alabama (-13.5) at Florida State

Kickoff: 1:30 p.m. on ABC
Comment: Two of the game’s highest-paid coaches, FSU’s Mike Norvell and Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer, are under extreme pressure to produce this fall. The Crimson Tide is loaded along the lines of scrimmage and far better positioned than the Seminoles to contend for a College Football Playoff berth. But goodness, that����ap a lot of points for a visiting team with a first-year starting quarterback (Ty Simpson). Pick: Florida State

LSU (+4) at Clemson

Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. on ABC
Comment: A showdown of ranked teams and Heisman Trophy contenders with the quarterbacks, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, currently carrying 9/1 odds. (Manning is the 7/1 favorite.) The difference? Clemson’s defensive line is absolutely stocked with future pros. The march begins with a dominant showing by Dabo Swinney and Co. Pick: Clemson 

Cal (+1.5) at Oregon State

Kickoff: 8:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: August isn’t typically a month for must-win games, but our back-of-the-envelope bowl math indicates the postseason calculation will turn tricky for the loser of this Pac-12 legacy duel. Expectations are high for the new quarterbacks, Cal freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and Oregon State transfer (from Duke) Maalik Murphy. This should be in doubt with five minutes left. Pick: Oregon State

Hawaii (+17.5) at Arizona

Kickoff: 8:30 p.m. on TNT
Comment: We would expect Arizona to win handily if not for Hawaii’s competitive edge, courtesy of having played last week (a ). As a result, this could be a tad close for comfort for the Wildcats, at least through three quarters. They should pull away in the fourth, but that extra half-point makes us wary given the frequency of 17-point margins. Pick: Hawaii

Utah (-6) at UCLA

Kickoff: 9 p.m. on Fox
Comment: We love West Coast primetime broadcasts on Fox’s over-the-air network — there are only one or two each season — and this edition has the makings of a taut, physical, old-school matchup. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava makes his anticipated debut for the Bruins after the much-scrutinized transfer from Tennessee, but could Devon Dampier, who joined the Utes from New Mexico last winter, be the star of the show? We like the Under (51.5) more than the point spread, to be honest. Pick: UCLA

Colorado State (+21.5) at Washington

Kickoff: 9 p.m. on Big Ten Network
Comment: The Rams are quite capable of holding their own against power conference opponents, but we expect Washington quarterback Demond Williams Jr., tailback Jonah Coleman and receiver Denzel Boston to show why they stand as one of the elite playmaking trios in the Big Ten this season. The concern with a spread over 21 points is always that dastardly back-door cover in the meaningless final minutes. Pick: Colorado State

Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami

Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. on ABC (Sunday)
Comment: The first meeting since 2017 doubles as a duel of preseason top-10 teams and the debut of quarterback Carson Beck for Miami. Playmakers are abundant, and both offensive lines are stout. Pardon us for wondering if Hurricanes coach Mario Cristobal will find a way to lose. Pick: Notre Dame

TCU (-3.5) at North Carolina

Kickoff: 5 p.m. on ESPN (Monday)
Comment: Bill Belichick’s debut in Chapel Hill comes against an opponent accustomed to Week 1 attention: Two years ago, TCU served as Deion Sanders’ foil in his first game with Colorado. The Horned Frogs have a first-rate quarterback in Josh Hoover and a veteran defense. Will Belichick wear a hoodie with the sleeves chopped off? How many times will ESPN’s cameras show his girlfriend, Jordon Hudson? Will she watch from a suite, or on the sideline with a headset? We’re kidding, of course. But seriously, will the Tar Heels look competent? Pick: TCU

Straight-up winners: Colorado, Texas, Alabama, Clemson, Oregon State, Arizona, Utah, Washington, Notre Dame and TCU

Five-star special: Texas. The showdown in the Horseshoe won’t be as lopsided as the Longhorns’ victory at Michigan early last season. But we don’t expect the game to be in doubt with five minutes remaining.

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Buffalo Bills

says: Win Super Bowl, 7-1; Over-under win total, 11.5

Strengths: Quarterback Josh Allen is the reigning MVP, and his pass-catching options might be a tick better this year with wide receiver Josh Palmer added and another year of development for Keon Coleman and tight end Dalton Kincaid. The 1-2 rushing punch of running back James Cook and Allen might be the best in the AFC outside of Baltimore.

Weaknesses: The team in Kansas City is still a member of the AFC. Beyond that, after one aging star (Von Miller) didn’t provide much juice for the pass rush, the Bills are going to try another (Joey Bosa). They have other strong options up front, but the back seven can be vulnerable at times. Maybe yet another aging star (CB Tre’Davious White) can have a throwback year in his return.

Miami Dolphins

BetMGM says: Win Super Bowl, 80-1; Over-under win total, 8.5

Strengths: The Dolphins have an impactful collection of skill position guys and Aurora native Mike McDaniel’s offense hums when quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is healthy. The names on the outside, particularly with the addition of rookie defensive lineman Kenneth Grant inside, should produce more pressure and sacks for this defense.

Weaknesses: The phrase “when Tagovailoa is healthy” is doing a lot of work. The backup QB is either going to be former Bronco Zach Wilson or seventh-round pick Quinn Ewers out of Texas. Miami added future Hall of Fame safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, but subtracted future HOF cornerback Jalen Ramsey from a position that already looked thin behind him.

New England Patriots

BetMGM says: Win Super Bowl, 80-1; Over-under win total, 8.5

Strengths: The Patriots were one of the big spenders this offseason, so there are definitely more quality NFL players on the roster. New England made a splashy addition at each level of the defense. There are other non-contending teams that would trade their quarterback for Drake Maye yesterday, and some that would like Mike Vrabel to coach for them as well.

Weaknesses: These guys might be a trendy pick to be much improved, but they had a lot of turnover this offseason. That doesn’t always work immediately. Also, the offense was terrible last year and the top offseason additions are a rookie offensive tackle and an aging wide receiver (Stefon Diggs) who tore an ACL in October.

New York Jets

BetMGM says: Win Super Bowl, 200-1; Over-under win total, 6.5

Strengths: Cornerback Sauce Gardner and receiver Garrett Wilson are franchise building blocks. A couple of the club’s other recent high first-round picks could be as well. And … the front office doesn’t have to worry about what Aaron Rodgers says on The Pat McAfee Show anymore?

Weaknesses: Just about everything else, unless quarterback Justin Fields can prove he’s ready to take a big leap forward as Rodgers’ replacement. Expect there to be a lot of Arch Manning chatter in the Big Apple this football season, because both New York teams could be in the running for the top pick.

Caleb Lohner is such a fascinating pick to me. He’s like Julius Thomas with the basketball background but without as much football experience. Do you think he’ll get much playing time this year or will he be a project much like Thomas was his first few seasons in Denver?

— Mike, Denver

Hey Mike, thanks for writing in and getting us going this week. Lohner is definitely one of the most interesting incoming players for the Broncos this offseason. Take nothing away from first-round pick Jahdae Barron, but to me, running back RJ Harvey and Lohner are Denver’s most intriguing rookies as the group prepares to arrive in town to get their professional careers started.

I know Lohner didn’t start his last couple of years at Utah, but the guy is a legit Division I basketball player. You don’t play in 153 games and start 46, even with modest scoring production, if you can’t hoop.

It����ap entirely too early to know if he’ll play much or at all for the Broncos this fall. He’s one of the guys I’m most interested to get eyes on this weekend at rookie minicamp, but even that����ap only one small step toward Week 1 in September.

Denver has all of its tight ends back from last year and brought fullback Michael Burton back, too, so it’ll be interesting to see how the battle for roster spots shapes up. Sometimes developmental players like Lohner end up in an interesting spot as it pertains to the roster. The Broncos drafted him in the seventh round to ensure they didn’t have competition while trying to sign him as an undrafted free agent. And what teams perceive as a player’s market in the post-draft process sometimes influences decisions at the roster cutdown. For instance, undrafted running back Blake Watson made the roster last year and head coach Sean Payton indicated part of the reason was because Denver knew there were half a dozen teams or more that tried to sign him after the draft. That might impact the likelihood that a player clears waivers. Same thing could end up applying to Lohner this summer if he’s on the roster bubble.

It would obviously be a surprise if Lohner has the kind of polish and nuance to his game that allows him to play a big role right out of the gate. We’re talking about a guy who has played 52 snaps since middle school. At the same time, Utah thought enough of him to use him as a red zone threat last year, and his four catches each went for touchdowns. So, unlikely? Yeah. Impossible? Of course not.

Ideally, if you’re the Broncos, you’re able to let him learn and develop and then deploy him as he’s ready to roll. That may or may not take a little roster finagling this fall.

Do you think Denver will host the draft any time soon? I’d love it to come to our city. Maybe they’ll try and pair it with the opening of the new stadium?

— Ryan, Denver

Hey Ryan, yeah, good question. Never say never, but the impression I’ve got is that hosting a draft is not currently high on the Broncos’ priority list.

Contrary to some reporting that����ap floated out there over the past year or so, the Broncos and city of Denver did not submit a bid to host the 2027 NFL draft, which was just awarded to Washington, D.C. Side note, that����ap going to be awesome. Plus, 2027 could be when Arch Manning and Jeremiah Smith are available. Start your tanking preparations now.

������’s what Broncos president Damani Leech told The Post just about a year ago as it pertained to 2027: “There’s been no official submission on our behalf for hosting the draft. Now, it����ap a major NFL tentpole event and it����ap really, really exciting, but it����ap not something that we’re currently working on.”

My sense is that sentiment hasn’t changed regarding future years at this point, either. That doesn’t rule out the Broncos and Denver hosting one down the road, but they do have a lot of other irons in the fire currently with their current headquarters construction project, the decision-making process regarding their stadium and all the rest.

Any news about the Ring of Fame? I want to see Demaryius Thomas get his day.

— Tim M., Arvada

Hey Tim, thanks for writing. No news yet. Last year, the Broncos announced their class in late May, lining it up with one of the team’s OTA weeks. So it����ap getting to be the part of the calendar where the selection committee usually does its work.

Thomas is obviously going to be elected at some point and it wouldn’t be a surprise for it to happen this year. There are other deserving candidates eligible for the first time, too, like cornerback Aqib Talib, along with a few others. So maybe the question is just about whether Thomas, the Super Bowl champion and five-time Pro Bowler who died in 2021, gets his own year or if he goes in as part of a small class.

Last year’s class of safety Steve Foley and tight end Riley Odoms marked the first players inducted into the Ring of Fame in the Walton Penner Family Ownership Group era. It also represented the first time multiple players had been part of the same class since 2016.

The Broncos’ Ring of Fame committee includes CEO and owner Greg Penner/the team’s ownership group, Hall of Fame safety Steve Atwater, former vice president of communications Jim Saccomano, play-by-play announcer Dave Logan and former head coach Mike Shanahan.

When is Mike Shanahan going into the Pro Football Hall of Fame? It seems like he keeps getting snubbed despite his impressive resume. Bill Belichick seems to be the odds-on favorite for 2026, so maybe 2027 for Shanny?

— Lewis K., Lakewood

Hey Lewis, think you’re on the right track with Belichick in 2026 and then somebody else — Shanahan potentially — in 2027. He’s clearly more than deserving.

Mike’s son and 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan put it pretty well this spring when asked about it at the NFL spring owners meetings in Florida.

“There’s a number of good coaches in line,” Kyle Shanahan said. “I think all of them will get in eventually. You could sit here and be upset about the order it goes or whatever, but I know he deserves it. I know other people do, too, and hopefully, he’ll be in sooner than later.”

The process itself for coaches and contributors has changed and is a tough one to really understand. The list of candidates gets whittled pretty far down and then a blue ribbon committee votes on a finalist to move to the full Pro Football Hall of Fame induction committee. Then the finalist has to get 80% of the vote. That����ap a high bar, and in recent years, coaching candidates have not cleared it. Mike Holmgren was picked as the finalist over Shanahan and several others last year, . The year before, the same thing happened to Buddy Parker.

It used to be that a coaching finalist put forth just had to get a ‘yes’ vote from the full committee. Now the coaches are grouped together with seniors and contributors and have to get 80%.

So, first you have to make it to finalist status and then you need the full group to vote you in. And likely everybody at the moment is waiting in line behind Belichick.

Hi Parker, what are your thoughts on Drew Sanders this year? It’s make or break for him, isn’t it? The draft gurus made it sound like he was a steal in the 2023 draft, but he hasn’t done a whole lot in Denver. And not a Broncos question, but who do you think will be the Browns’ starting quarterback in Week 1?

— Mark, Arvada

Hey Mark, thanks for the questions, as always.

I don’t know if I’d call it make-or-break, but it����ap certainly an important summer and upcoming season for Sanders. He obviously didn’t have any control over rupturing his Achilles last spring, an injury that cost him a big chunk of his second year.

When he returned to practice, he did so originally as an outside linebacker. But the edge group blossomed into such a strength that the Broncos not only traded Baron Browning, they also moved Sanders back to the inside for the stretch run.

So Sanders started out as an ILB, moved during the season to OLB, thought he was going to settle there, got hurt, returned as an OLB, and then slid back to ILB.

Now the Broncos say he’s going to be an ILB going forward.

If there’s a silver lining to new free agent signee Dre Greenlaw missing a chunk of the offseason program going forward due to a quad strain, maybe it����ap that Sanders will get a ton of reps. The inside linebacker group also features a rehabbing Alex Singleton, so Sanders will get all the work he can handle while the veterans try to get fully healthy.

We’ve seen the glimpses of Sanders’ traits and ability. He made plays sideline to sideline during training camp his rookie season. He recorded a sack as a sub-package blitzer on his first defensive snap of the 2024 season after missing the first 13 games.

But there’s a difference, obviously, between showing flashes and becoming the kind of player who can be left in the middle of the field on all three downs. Sanders, it����ap fair to say, hasn’t had a long or consistent runway to try to make that leap. Now he’s got it. Let����ap see what he does with it.

On the Browns, the amazing thing is they’ve added four quarterbacks since March. They traded for Kenny Pickett in March, signed Joe Flacco in mid-April and then drafted Dillon Gabriel in the third round of the draft and Shedeur Sanders in the fifth. The only guy who definitely won’t start Week 1 is the one with the massive guaranteed contract in Deshaun Watson, who is rehabbing a torn Achilles. Let����ap throw a dart against the wall and say Pickett Week 1 but at least two others over the course of the season — including Shedeur Sanders.

We fed all the roster moves into the Hotline’s supercomputer and set the dial for 10,000 simulations.

Just kidding.

We grabbed the nearest envelope, flipped it over and scribbled out the following update of .

1. Clemson

The Tigers are loaded with high-round NFL Draft picks on both sides of scrimmage, possess one of the nation’s top quarterbacks (Cade Klubnik), improved their tactical acumen by hiring defensive wiz Tom Allen away from Penn State and, crucially, have the manageable ACC schedule. Everything points to Dabo Swinney’s program returning to center stage after several seasons in the background. (Previous: 2)

2. Penn State

The top of the Big Ten is loaded, as usual. But Penn State, not Ohio State or Oregon, owns the roster best suited for a run at the national title. The main difference: The Nittany Lions have a returning quarterback, Drew Allar, while their competition is starting over at the position. Also, Penn State swiped defensive mastermind Jim Knowles from the Buckeyes, all of which leaves James Franklin with no excuses in the conference race. (Previous: 3)

3. Texas

The Longhorns are a popular pick for the No. 1 spot in post-spring rankings such as this. And to be sure, Steve Sarkisian’s roster oozes NFL talent. But Texas was hit hard by attrition in the secondary and along the offensive line, and the road schedule is challenging with a season opener at Ohio State and trips to Florida and Georgia. Also, we wonder if Arch Manning has more flaws than the popular narrative suggests. (Previous: 4)

4. Notre Dame

For any other team, a rookie starting quarterback would give us pause. But Notre Dame’s stellar offensive line and dynamic running game, combined with a stout defense, will mitigate whatever learning curve CJ Carr faces as he takes over for Riley Leonard. Don’t mistake the Irish for a one-year wonder — coach Marcus Freeman is recruiting at the level needed to reach the College Football Playoff on a regular basis. (Previous: 5)

5. Ohio State

Some might view this placement as tantamount to rankings blasphemy. After all, the Buckeyes have the best offensive and defensive players in the country in receiver Jeremiah Smith and safety Caleb Downs, respectively. But the quarterback situation is unsettled, the coordinators are new and we suspect there could be a lingering letdown following an emotional run from the Michigan loss to the national championship. (Previous: 1)

6. Florida

The sizzling finish that moved Billy Napier off the hot seat (temporarily) and set the stage for a breakthrough season by quarterback DJ Lagway (possibly) has given us reason to believe in the Gators (for now). We’ll know whether this outlook is appropriate by the middle of October, after Florida finishes a four-games-in-five-weeks stretch against LSU, Miami, Texas and Texas A&M, with three of the four on the road. (Previous: 10)

7. Oregon

The attrition was heavy in Eugene, where the Ducks sent a school-record 10 players to the NFL Draft. But the roster-building has been of such quality under Dan Lanning, both through the transfer portal and the old-fashioned way, that enough talent remains to fuel another playoff run. Of course, this presumes the Ducks conjure effective quarterback play out of Dante Moore, the first underclassman to start for Oregon since Tyler Shough in the pandemic season. (Previous: 7)

8. Georgia

The Bulldogs weren’t nearly as crisp with the details in 2024 as they typically are under Kirby Smart, and we fully expect that to change in the fall. But the schedule is brutal — again — and any evaluation of presumptive starting quarterback Gunnar Stockton is mere guesswork. Of note: Smart overhauled his receiver room and added Zachariah Branch from USC. But he isn’t exactly a proven commodity when lined up outside. (Previous: 6)

9. Illinois

Led by one of the Big Ten’s top returning quarterbacks, Luke Altmyer, the Illini are poised for a season in the spotlight akin to what Indiana experienced last year. Our conviction is rooted partly in the momentum remaining from 2024, when they won 10 games, and largely in the favorable conference schedule: Bret Bielema and Co. do not play Michigan, Penn State or Oregon. (Previous: 8)

10. Alabama

Our outlook for the Crimson Tide has brightened with the arrival of offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, who was fired by the Seahawks after one season and will join his former boss, Kalen DeBoer, in Tuscaloosa. The non-conference schedule features Florida State and Wisconsin, while the lineup of SEC foes includes Georgia, Tennessee, LSU and South Carolina. (Previous: 15)

11. Brigham Young

The Cougars were underrated most of last year, both by the pollsters and the CFP selection committee, and the same has been true through the offseason. But with quarterback Jake Retzlaff returning and BYU hungry to take the final step — to the Big 12 championship — we expect the success to continue, and the bandwagon to grow. (Previous: 9)

12. Texas Tech

The second-ranked transfer class in the country features 13 players with four-star ratings and, thanks to NIL money, is located in Lubbock. Add a solid lineup of returnees, and the Red Raiders just might win the Big 12 — a development that would, in fact, be very Big 12. Managing expectations will be critical for a program that hasn’t produced 10 (or more) wins since the Mike Leach era in the late 2000s. (Previous: 11)

13. LSU

The Tigers sit atop the 247Sports transfer portal rankings with an incoming class that features 12 four-star players. Add a gifted, veteran quarterback in Garrett Nussmeier, and coach Brian Kelly has everything he needs to silence the critics, contend in the SEC and reach the CFP. The season opener at Clemson will shape everything that follows. (Previous: Not ranked)

14. Miami

When it comes to acquiring talent, few coaches are better than Mario Cristobal. When it comes to maximizing talent, well, let����ap leave that discussion for another time. (Previous: 13)

15. Oklahoma

After winning just six games in 2024 and finishing 124th in the FBS in yards per play, the Sooners overhauled their offense with new coordinator Ben Arbuckle and quarterback John Mateer from Washington State and tailback Jaydn Ott from Cal. Assuming the defense is respectable, Oklahoma should win enough games to nudge coach Brent Venables off the hot seat. (Previous: Not ranked)

16. Louisville

The Cardinal quietly won nine games last season, upset Clemson, then lost quarterback Tyler Shough to the NFL Draft. But a replacement is lined up and ready to roll: Miller Moss, the former USC quarterback who threw six touchdowns in the 2023 Holiday Bowl against … Louisville. No wonder Jeff Brohm was interested in Moss’s services. (Previous: Not ranked)

17. Boise State

The return of quarterback Maddux Madsen will help offset the loss of tailback Ashton Jeanty, but another Mountain West title and ticket to the CFP depend heavily on the Broncos’ success at the line of scrimmage — in particular, filling the void left by defensive end Ahmed Hassanein. The Oct. 4 trip to Notre Dame will offer the same opportunity for resume rocket fuel as the thriller at Oregon provided last season. (Previous: 14)

18. Iowa State

Our apologies if you were told there would be no math, but here’s the equation: Matt Campbell + a veteran quarterback (Rocco Becht) + two key games at home (BYU and Arizona State) = high-level success in Ames. Perhaps even a conference title. (Previous: 18)

19. Nebraska

The Hotline was a year early with our expectations for the Cornhuskers in 2024. Turns out, coach Matt Rhule needed one more recruiting cycle to craft a lineup capable of supporting quarterback Dylan Raiola, find the right playcaller (Dana Holgorsen) and thrive in the Big Ten. (Previous: 24)

20. Arizona State

We don’t doubt that coach Kenny Dillingham’s formula can work once again, especially with a quarterback-receiver combination like Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson. But elevated expectations will change the internal dynamics. The Sun Devils won’t catch anyone by surprise or spend three months playing with house money. And they won’t have Cam Skattebo to erase any mistakes. (Previous: 16)

21. South Carolina

We’re taking a bleaker view of the Gamecocks than many, precisely because they are a trendy pick to challenge for the SEC title after their strong 2024 season. That said, quarterback LaNorris Sellers could very well prove us dead wrong. (Previous: 25)

22. Utah

The Hotline would bet the house on a bounce-back season in Salt Lake City with playcaller Jason Beck and quarterback Devon Dampier as the twin sparks arriving from New Mexico, plus a stellar offensive tackle tandem in Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu. But to be clear, the bet would involve your house, not ours. It����ap the Big 12, after all. (Previous: 22)

23. SMU

The same challenges facing Arizona State are present with the Mustangs, who must manage expectations and navigate an ACC schedule in which they will get each opponent����ap best shot. It����ap often more difficult to replicate success than to attain it the first time. (Previous: 23)

24. USC

No team is more interesting than USC when you combine the heat on fourth-year coach Lincoln Riley, the massive roster and staff overhauls and the backdrop of the Big Ten move. This is a gigantic year for the Trojans. The pieces are in place for eight or nine wins — they don’t play Ohio State or Penn State — but only if Riley can get the most out of his roster. (Previous: Not ranked)

25. Michigan

The two-game suspension for coach Sherrone Moore reported on Monday doesn’t dampen our forecast for the Wolverines. We’re assuming the offense improves (better quarterback play) and the defense regresses (heavy losses to the NFL), and those dynamics essentially balance out. (Previous: 21)

*** And five more to watch:

26. Indiana
27. Florida State
28. Tennessee
29. Washington
30. Kansas State

Also considered: Army, Auburn, Baylor, Colorado, Duke, Georgia Tech, Iowa, Marshall, Memphis, Mississippi, Missouri, Navy, Syracuse, TCU, Texas A&M and Tulane.

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Ewers passed for 9,128 yards and 68 touchdowns in a career that few Texas quarterbacks can match. He had hinted before the season ended that it would be his last in college.

“These past three years have been some of the best years I could have imagined,” Ewers said in announcing his decision. “The relationships I’ve built between coaches and teammates will last forever.”

His 27 career wins rank fourth as a starting quarterback at Texas, and he led the Longhorns to their before the program moved to the Southeastern Conference. In their first season in the SEC, the Longhorns rose to their and played in the league championship game.

Ewers’ biggest legacy will be leading the program to the playoff semifinals in consecutive years, though it fell short of the championship game. He had on a sack that led to a game-clinching touchdown for Ohio State on Jan. 10 in the Cotton Bowl.

Ewers’ career

Ewers, who grew up in the Dallas suburbs, was the top-rated high school quarterback in the country when he and left school early to the join the Buckeyes for the 2021 season. But after one season spent deep on the Ohio State depth chart, Ewers transferred to Texas, which had just finished 5-7 in coach Steve Sarkisian’s first season.

He was the starter by the season opener in 2022 and led the team through seasons of 8-5, 12-2 and 13-3 records. But he was dogged by various shoulder, abdomen and ankle injuries and missed at least two games each season. An abdomen strain this season allowed Manning to start twice and earn the program’s first SEC win, which came against Mississippi State.

Make way for Manning

Ewers’ departure sets the stage for Manning to take over in 2025.

The son of Cooper Manning, the grandson of former NFL quarterback Archie Manning and the nephew of Super Bowl-winning QBs Peyton and Eli Manning passed for 939 yards and nine touchdowns and ran for four TDs this season but has seen only limited playing time since September.

Texas fans have been eagerly awaiting his chance to be the full-time starter. Manning will get it with a rebuilt offense.

Top receivers Matthew Golden and Isaiah Bond have declared for the draft and senior tight end Gunnar Helm completed his eligibility. Running back Jaydon Blue, who scored a team-high 14 touchdowns including four in the playoffs, and starting tackles Kelvin Banks Jr. and Cam Williams also left for the NFL.