Keeler: Hey, I’d love to see David Wooderson in the flesh at Empower. But let me ask you two things: First, other than that early Jones-to-Watkins connection in Santa Clara (and that was a heck of a throw), what exactly has McMillian done to lose his spot as the No. 1 slot corner? Second, and more to the point, what has Barron done — at camp or over two preseason games — to stake his claim? Yeah, Jahdae has been flying all over the place. He’s got a higher ceiling. And higher expectations. You’ve got to earn that path to the starting 11. It’ll come, but Barron’s not there yet.

Broncos podcast: Breaking down Denver’s toughest roster decisions

Renck: Sean Payton is fond of telling rookies that it doesn't matter how they got to Denver, it is what they do when here. It is a motivational reminder for longshots and late-round picks alike that their resumes will be considered. That is how McMillian worked his way into a starting spot. He represents a heck of a find as an undrafted free agent. McMillian is good, but his mistakes are costly. Barron is better. It is not on display every day. But it is there. Defensive boss Vance Joseph has given Barron reps at nickel and outside, and it should not surprise anyone if he comes on a safety blitz. Joseph raves about his football IQ. Moving Barron around has prevented linear progress on purpose. Joseph wants him to learn from mistakes in camp, not games. But given his length and tackling ability, there's no reason to delay moving him in with the 1s in Week 1.

Keeler: Love the idea of Barron as a defensive joker — a lengthy, fast, stealthy weapon who's just as dangerous crashing the box as he is dropping back. . He doesn't just make you better. Like Evan Engram and Marvin Mims on offense, he allows you to get creative with how you use his skill set. The only limit is your imagination.

Renck: The addition of Barron and progress of Kris Abrams-Draine give the Broncos' their deepest secondary since the 2015 No Fly Zone. The NFL is becoming a position-less league defensively. Barron represents the next wave. He is Bo Nix at quarterback: a terrific athlete with a bloated college resume known for his intelligence. McMillian will get snaps in packages, but Barron's future is now.

Keeler: Fair point, but you also don't have to force it, either. You know who had to wait until Week 2 of his rookie campaign to make his first NFL start? Only the best defensive player in the dang league. Pat Surtain II was "eased in" on nickel/dime packages during his pro debut at MetLife Stadium against the Giants in Week 1 of 2021. PS2 got 16 snaps, according to , as Uncle Vic Fangio doled out most of the cornerback snaps to Kyle Fuller, Ronald Darby and Bryce Callahan. We all know what happened next: Darby got hurt in Jersey, PS2 moved up, and the rest is Broncos history. Just because Barron might not start against the Titans doesn't mean he won't become a Front Range fixture. You've got time. Even better, you've got options. Darn good ones.

A rookie at the time, Surtain had never played any reps at nickel because Parker, in his first year as a defensive backs coach in Denver, didn’t want to overwork him. But when former Broncos cornerback Bryce Callahan was forced to exit practice with an injury, Parker moved Surtain over to nickel.

One snap later, Surtain recorded an interception.

“I was like, ‘This guy is a natural,’” Parker told The Denver Post. “… You saw traces of it (on) film, but that was the moment when I knew he could do whatever he wanted on the field.”

Three seasons later, Surtain has proven Parker’s intuition correct. With a rare blend of size (6-foot-2, 202 pounds), athleticism (4.46 seconds in 40-yard dash) and football smarts, Surtain has become one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL. The 23-year-old was named a first-team All-Pro in 2022 and selected to his second consecutive Pro Bowl on Wednesday — with even more All-Pro nods expected.

Broncos legend Champ Bailey says he’s on a Hall of Fame trajectory. Former Seattle Seahawks All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman has compared him to first-ballot Hall of Famer Darrelle Revis.

Broncos safety Justin Simmons isn’t so sure the NFL has seen anyone quite like Surtain.

“He’s a one-of-one type of player,” Simmons told The Post. “You don’t come across that guy in every draft.”

When a team does, a massive payday is pretty much guaranteed to follow.

And that will soon be the case for Surtain, who is eligible for a contract extension this offseason with one year and a potential fifth-year team option left on his rookie deal.

Pro Football Focus and Over the Cap analyst Brad Spielberger told The Denver Post that Surtain could command an annual salary between $24.5 million and $27 million. Those numbers would make him the highest-paid cornerback in NFL history, pushing him past deals signed by Cleveland’s Denzel Ward (five years, $100.5 million) and Green Bay’s Jaire Alexander (four years, $84 million) in 2022, and Miami’s Jalen Ramsey (five years, $100 million) in 2020.

“If I’m (Surtain’s) agent, that����ap where I’m starting the conversation,” Spielberger said.

Surtain told The Post that a contract extension has registered in his mind, but being so early in his career, he tries to not dwell on it as much. Still, the Broncos are approaching decision time with their 2021 first-round pick. Denver can sign Surtain to an extension, making him a centerpiece of the defense for years to come. Or the Broncos can run the gamble of trading him for future assets.

Either decision will shape the outlook for the team moving forward. For now, Surtain wants to keep improving on his craft, which would inevitably strengthen his case.

“I’m just focused on elevating my play so I could negotiate in that manner,” Surtain told The Post.

“A freaking human blanket”

Following every practice, head coach Sean Payton has a player break the team down in a huddle. During the team’s practice ahead of its matchup against New England, it was Surtain’s turn.

Well aware of his reputation as a man of few words, Payton kidded his star cornerback, “Just (say) more than three syllables.”

“I felt kind of played,” Surtain said with a grin.

In Denver, Surtain is known to be a quiet guy in the locker room, even though he has the loudest resume. His personality is a true reflection of how he approaches the game: calm, cool, never rattled.

Those traits were noticeable the moment Surtain stepped on Alabama’s campus. In his first scrimmage as a true freshman, Surtain matched up against future Dolphins wideout Jaylen Waddle. Former Crimson Tide defensive backs coach Karl Scott recalled Waddle catching a few passes with Surtain in coverage. But the young cornerback never rode the rollercoaster of emotion. His approach remained the same.

Scott knew Surtain had the intelligence and physical traits to be an elite cornerback in the league. But in that moment, Scott realized Surtain’s mental disposition would take him to greater heights.

“If you created a cornerback, you would look at No. 2,” Scott, now the Seattle Seahawks’ defensive backs coach, told The Post.

Parker said Surtain is good at not overreacting to anything, be it a wide receiver’s release or processing what����ap happening pre-snap. Parker believes Surtain was gifted with those traits.

Surtain, on the other hand, credits everything to his preparation. He spends countless hours watching film. Even in the mornings before a game, he is studying the quarterback’s and receiver’s tendencies, routes and alignment, so that when he is on the field, it feels like he’s two steps ahead.

“Look how smart he is, knowing different route combinations and situations,” said Broncos receiver Brandon Johnson, Surtain’s high school teammate. “He’s super patient at the line of scrimmage. … Pat����ap got the full package.”

What stand out to safety P.J. Locke are the subtle movements Surtain makes on the field. In Denver’s Week 4 matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders in 2022, receiver Davante Adams tried to break free from Surtain on a curl route, but couldn’t. Surtain was able to turn his body, wrap around Adams and break up the pass.

“For your body to spin around and still be nailed to the receiver, that����ap different,” Locke said. “… He’s a freaking human blanket.”

“You are doing something good”

When Surtain was a junior at American Heritage, Pat Surtain Sr. began to notice opposing quarterbacks were hesitant to test his son.

“I thought that was kind of rare,” said Pat Sr., a one-time All-Pro defensive back himself who was also his son’s high school DBs coach.

During Surtain’s first two years at Alabama, quarterbacks had no choice but to throw in his direction because future All-Pro Trevon Diggs was on the other side of the field. But when Diggs moved on to the NFL, Scott began to see quarterbacks drift away from him.

“He never wavered in his approach and never got bored,” Scott said.

That trend has continued in the NFL.

At first glance, one might look at Surtain’s combined interception total (3) over the last two seasons and conclude he’s an average cornerback. But much of that can be chalked up to limited opportunity.

Last season Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence did whatever he could to avoid throwing near Surtain, targeting his receiver just twice all game. The first resulted in a defensive pass interference. The second, a short pass to running back JaMycal Hasty, was a 4-yard loss.

This season, Surtain has squared off against some of the top wideouts in the league and the targets have been minimal. In Denver’s 29-12 win over the Cleveland Browns, Amari Cooper was targeted four times against Surtain, recording one catch for 11 yards, according to Pro Football Focus. Against the Bills in Week 10, Surtain limited Stefon Diggs to one catch for 11 yards on just one target.

“It doesn’t go on the stat sheet, but when the quarterback doesn’t look your way, you are doing something good,” Surtain said.

Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph said Surtain’s ability to take over one side of the field has its benefits when trying to game-plan pressures and coverages.

“If Pat is always playing right or left, (opponents) can always avoid him. If I know (where) Pat����ap playing for us schematically, I can push the ball back to him,” Joseph explained. “Certain receivers want to avoid Pat����ap coverage, but I can push their best guy back to Pat or push the quarterback’s read back to (him). (There are) ways we use him to help our entire defense.”

Still, even the best cornerbacks get tested in the NFL. And sometimes they get beat.

It was Surtain’s turn in Week 11 against the Raiders last season, when Adams turned him around on a double move that resulted in a wide-open 35-yard touchdown pass to beat the Broncos in overtime.

How Surtain responded the next time the two met, in Week 1 of this season, spoke volumes: Following Adams the majority of the game, the All-Pro pass catcher had just two catches for 16 yards on five targets.

“Whenever (quarterbacks) look at me and allow me to make plays, I’m gonna capitalize on that,” Surtain said.

“He’s the type of player I’d build around”

After Surtain was named the 2023 Demaryius Thomas Team MVP this past week, he stood in front of reporters, humble as always. While expressing his appreciation for the honor bestowed on him by local media members, Surtain said he’s running out of room in the award section of his basement.

Simmons said very few players in the league can do what Surtain does every Sunday. He believes it would be a big deal for the franchise if Surtain can further cement his legacy with the Broncos.

“I don’t like to compare, but it would be very Champ Bailey-esque to have a constant (player) in the back end that you can rely on,” Simmons said. “He fits the pedigree of what a Bronco was when I was coming in here.”

Surtain told The Post that he loves being in Denver and it would mean a lot to him to be a franchise cornerstone for years to come. A long-term deal would solidify that.

“Year after year, I’m just trying to get to that next level. I would love to be here for that,” Surtain said.

Denver doesn’t have to make the deal right away. Surtain will earn $6.69 million next season on his current rookie deal, and the soonest he can hit free agency is 2025. The team still has a fifth-year option for the ’25 season and the franchise tag in its back pocket. According to Over the Cap,

Spielberger doesn’t expect Denver and Surtain to agree to a deal this offseason because teams typically don’t give extensions to non-quarterbacks after their third season. The 49ers, for example, didn’t make edge rusher Nick Bosa the highest-paid defensive player in the league (five years, $170 million) until after his fifth season.

Still, Spielberger said it would be wise for the Broncos to strike a deal before other top corners in the league sign on the dotted line. Surtain could also benefit from signing an extension if the Broncos are willing to do a shorter deal that allows him to hit unrestricted free agency sooner.

At the same time, Denver has several needs to address this offseason but minimal draft capital to do it with. After the Broncos drafted five players in 2023 — their smallest draft class since 2007 — they have only six picks in 2024, excluding the second-rounder sent to New Orleans to bring Payton to Denver.

In addition, Denver could soon be hamstrung by the salary cap and forced to eat $85 million in dead money if it chooses to cut Russell Wilson and go looking for another quarterback.

If the Broncos wanted to solve that problem by moving up in the draft to take USC’s Caleb Williams or North Carolina’s Drake Maye, Surtain is easily the best trade chip that they have.

When Jacksonville dealt Ramsey to the Los Angeles Rams in 2019, the team received two first-round draft picks and a fourth-round pick for the All-Pro cornerback — a return Spielberger says the Broncos should demand if they were to ever consider trading Surtain.

“(Surtain) is a clear-cut top-five guy. He’s young and scheme (diverse),” he said. “I don’t see why (Denver) would take less than two first (round picks).”

Of course, it����ap hard to imagine the Broncos entertaining such conversations. Shutdown cornerbacks like Surtain don’t come around often. When teams draft one, they typically hold on to them.

“He’s the type of player I’d want to build around,” ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller said. “I think any time you have a guy at one of the four or five positions who looks like a perennial All-Pro when he’s in his third year, personally I think it’d be horrible to trade him away.”

Broncos reporter Parker Gabriel contributed to this report.

Largest contracts for a cornerback in NFL history

Source:

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After Sunday’s game, the focus will surely be on the special team and the analysis of another 16-point outing from the offense. But what about Vance Joseph? We got only two stops out of six drives, one in large part because of a dumb decision from Jimmy Garoppolo. We couldn’t get a single sack and had only three QB hits.

No three-and-outs, three drives of 10 or more plays (plus the six-play, 75-yard touchdown), unable to get a stop with over five minutes on the clock with two timeouts and the two-minute warning. Not saying there weren’t some positives (the run defense for example), but in the end this unit didn’t do enough to get the ball back to Russell Wilson, they couldn’t get key stops when needed, and didn’t make life difficult for Garoppolo, who’s not the scariest QB on the schedule. In your opinion, is it just a bad game, or a bad sign?

— Yoann, Beine-Nauroy, France

Where was our pass rush, Parker? We brought in Zach Allen and Frank Clark and it didn’t seem like they made all that much of a difference against Vegas.

— Mike, Denver

Combining these two entries and yeah, Yoann and Mike, there are some questions to answer about the defense.

The effort against the run and noted Broncos destroyer Josh Jacobs was solid, but the Raiders did too much damage on third and fourth downs and Denver couldn’t make Garoppolo uncomfortable at all. One of the realities of Week 1 is we’ll all look back a month from now and it’ll either look like a big flashing warning sign or an anomaly.

There are reasons for concern — though not for panic at this point — particularly in the pass-rush. Randy Gregory and Frank Clark combined for zero pressures. The Broncos had just three overall. And you just didn’t see one-on-one wins up front. As Sean Payton said Monday, the two ways to produce pressure are to beat your man or bring extra people. Obviously the former is preferred. But the Broncos just didn’t get much of that from its edge players or its interior linemen.

A consistent pass-rush is the best tool for getting off the field. You can stop the run on mixed downs, but if a quarterback then sits in the pocket with no heat, he’s going to find an answer more times than not. It����ap not the only problem, but it����ap definitely a part of the equation that can solve other problems. Pressure creates turnover opportunities. It����ap a lot more difficult to pick on somebody in coverage if you have to worry about getting the ball out quickly.

So, let����ap see if Joseph and the Broncos defense can create more against Washington.

What sense does it make for NFL teams to go to all the trouble of fielding a 53-player roster and 16-player practice squad, only to be allowed to dress 46 players plus two designates from the practice squad on game day? They’re saying it is economics or competitive fairness is ridiculous. The entire enterprise is costly and completely based on competition. Each team has exactly the same opportunity to build their rosters.

It makes absolutely no sense not to dress and potentially play any or all of the 69 players. Make it 70 and stop playing games juggling the roster on game day. The owners are loony for doing it the way they do.

Dress ’em and play ’em. There is nothing unfair about that. In fact, don’t you think it would improve the product?

— A Referee, Greeley

Hey Ref, good question.

The fairness explanation, typically, is that if you can dress all 53 players, then what happens when one team has six guys injured and the other only has one? Not sure if you’ve noticed, but NFL head coaches tend to be wound pretty tight and they’re not wild about going into a game with several less available players than the other team. So even if three of your top guys are hurt and three backups for the other team are hurt, at least under the current rules you’ll still both have 46 in uniform.

That����ap the rationale. I tend to agree that it����ap a little silly. Especially with big practice squads nowadays, maybe you could fill your gameday roster to 53 or 55 from your practice squad regardless of how many players are out. So if you’re fully healthy, great, you can bring two guys up. Have six players down for the week? Activate eight from the practice squad.

Of course, changes to those rules mean dealing with the Collective Bargaining Agreement and that����ap why a major overhaul is unlikely. Payton said a couple of weeks ago that you have a roster and a p-squad, but really you’ve got 69 guys. Look at Week 1. Practice squad receiver Lil’Jordan Humphrey started, played the second-most snaps among receivers and logged the Broncos’ first touchdown of the season. The good news for him is he can only be elevated three times and then the team has to promote him to keep using him. But it would be simpler — and better money for players — if there were just more roster spots to go around.

Everyone keeps comparing Russell Wilson to Peyton Manning and how he changed his game to win the Super Bowl. I don’t agree with that comparison. A much better comparison is to a gunslinger that had a lot of success but couldn’t win the big one until he got older, had a run-focused coach to control the game, and got some help from a great running back. That coach was Mike Shanahan, the running back was Terrell Davis, and that QB was John Elway. The early career for Russ was similar to Elway under Dan Reeves. I am hoping Sean Payton can be Shanahan and Javonte Williams can be Terrell Davis. If they can be 80% as successful as those ’90s teams, it will mean great things for this year’s team. It might be sacrilege in Denver, but what do you think?

— Paul Heaton, Atlanta

Hey Paul, thanks for writing in. Hadn’t ever given much thought to the Wilson/Manning comparison beyond just the fact that they’re high-profile, accomplished players who moved to Denver after long stretches elsewhere. I can see the parallels in your second example, but would think about it more generally.

Wilson had an environment that really worked for him in Seattle. Clearly. His numbers and accomplishments back that up. Last year, obviously, did not work. Some of it is coaching and some of it is on the player. As players get older, their abilities change. The best ones figure out how to continue maximizing what they do have rather than getting hung up on what they used to have. If that����ap controlling games and defenses with your mind and leaning on a decade-plus of experience, that����ap great. If it����ap using a run game and a stout defense to get in position to win, fine. If that����ap relying on a coach like Payton or Shanahan to help you discover what you need to do, all the better.

Not only that, but quarterbacks and coaches also have to adjust to what they have on their roster. At the moment, Denver looks like a team that has to play through its run game. If they get their full complement of receiving options back at some point, maybe they’re a little more dynamic.

For the awesome money these men make, how do these football stars get along with other teammates? Is there a rivalry? If they are in a game or if they see them on the street, or in a club, is it all ego or respect for their other players?

— Boni, Chicago

Great question, Boni. The short answer is there’s probably every type of relationship you can imagine. In some ways it����ap like a normal workplace environment and then in some cases it����ap not. But you have guys who happen to play the same or similar positions that hit it off really quickly — inside linebackers Josey Jewell and Alex Singleton are good examples — and there are players who forge extremely close friendships — like safeties Kareem Jackson and Justin Simmons. Guys come from all different socioeconomic backgrounds, family structures, parts of the country, types of colleges, etc.

Not everybody has to be best friends within a locker room, but they have to figure out how to work together. And if a couple guys happen not to like each other, there’s a responsibility to figure out how to not let that impact the team on the field.

Obviously some players do make a lot more money than others. In the locker room last week, there were a couple of players marveling at the news that Joey Bosa had got five years and up to $170 million with $122 million guaranteed in San Francisco. For the most part, though, I think players take more of the mindset of trying to secure their own money rather than worrying about what other players get. Remember, the more the top players drive up the market price, the more everybody benefits. That����ap part of the reason you see top running backs trying to take a hard line. What Jonathan Taylor accepts has a trickle down impact on a lot of other running backs.

Can we talk about Damarri Mathis? He struggled mightily out there on Sunday and the schedule isn’t going to get any easier. Are there any other options at that cornerback spot? Casey Hayward and Bryce Callahan are still out there. Honestly, I might even take Chris Harris’ old-self back.

— Mark, Arvada

Hey Mark, yeah, it was not Mathis’ best performance. He’s been limited some during the preseason by an ankle injury. He wasn’t on the injury report this past week, but he did miss quite a few preseason reps. Not an excuse, obviously, but the second-year player out of Pitt showed promise as a rookie, so you wonder if part of Sunday’s performance was about knocking rust off.

If he doesn’t bounce back, the Broncos could consider one of those veterans, but the fact is they already have one on the roster. That����ap Fabian Moreau, who signed early in training camp and really played well as the preseason went along. If they decide to make a change, he’d probably get the first crack — especially after feisty, tough-minded Ja’Quan McMillian was inactive for Week 1.

One other consideration: If the Broncos get shorthanded at safety in the coming weeks because P.J. Locke’s out until at least Week 5 and Caden Sterns was injured Sunday, one route to consider is playing Essang Bassey at safety, moving Mathis to the nickel and putting Moreau on the outside.

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When: 2:25 p.m. MT, Sunday

Where: Empower Field

Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/KCNC-4

Broncos-Chargers series: Broncos are 69-55-1 in 125 regular-season games dating back to 1960; the Broncos lost 19-16 in overtime in the last meeting, on Oct. 17, 2022, in Los Angeles.

Key matchup

Ravens vs Bengals

An X-factor before the Broncos and Chargers kick off on Sunday afternoon is the outcome of the Ravens at Bengals game earlier that day.

The Chargers, who have already clinched a playoff spot, hold the No. 5 seed in the AFC bracket heading into the final week. If Cincinnati beats Baltimore (11 a.m. MT kick), that would clinch that No. 5 seed for L.A. and give the Chargers nothing to play for.

Chargers coach Brandon Staley indicated the result of that Ravens game would affect his lineup. If the Ravens lose, it’s likely that a majority of Los Angeles starters would play very little, or not at all.

If that’s the case, the odds would swing heavily in favor of the Broncos, who won’t be sitting any healthy starters and are looking to make a point that Russell Wilson and the offense have finally found some footing late in a lost season.

Denver interim head coach Jerry Rosburg said the team’s mentality and game plan will stay the same whether the Broncos are facing Los Angeles’ No. 1s, or the reserves.

“We’re expecting Sonny Liston out there,” Rosburg quipped. “If Joe Palooka shows up, so be it.”

Who has the edge?

Quarterback

Russell Wilson ran for two TDs last week, but also threw another critical interception, which is becoming a trend. Justin Herbert has thrown 23 touchdowns to 10 interceptions this year. If he doesn’t play, Chase Daniel (2-3 in five career starts) is the backup. Edge: Chargers

Running back

The Broncos run game has been M.I.A. over the past couple weeks, but features Latavius Murray and Chase Edmonds. The Chargers have dual-threat force Austin Ekeler, an Eaton/Western State product who has 1,567 total yards and 18 total touchdowns. Edge: Chargers

Receiver/tight end

Jerry Jeudy has turned on the jets down the stretch of the season, with 35 catches over the last four games. Courtland Sutton has just one TD this year, way back in Week 4. The Chargers feature the trio of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Joshua Palmer. Edge: Chargers

Offensive line

Denver’s banged-up offensive line gets another shakeup with left guard Dalton Risner on season-ending IR with an elbow injury. The Broncos have given up 23 sacks over the last four games. The Chargers have a premier center in Corey Linsley. Edge: Even

Defensive line

Mike Purcell (elbow/ankle) is nursing an injury on the Denver D-line already without Dre’Mont Jones (hip) and D.J. Jones (knee). DeShawn Williams has to step up. L.A. features All-Pro rusher Joey Bosa, who was hurt the last time the teams met. Edge: Even

Linebacker

Alex Singleton looks to polish off a career year at ILB alongside Josey Jewell. Singleton leads Denver with a career-high 152 tackles, while Jewell has 123. On the edge, Denver has zero sacks the last two games. Drue Tranquill leads L.A. with 136 tackles. Edge: Even

Secondary

Pat Surtain II, named the team’s MVP by the Denver media, is the Broncos’ lone Pro Bowler. Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson may be playing their last game together on the back end. Former Bronco Bryce Callahan leads the Rams with three picks. Edge: Broncos

Special teams

The Broncos special teams have ranged from mediocre to dreadful this year. Denver ranks last in kickoff return average (17.5). Brandon McManus is under 80% field goal percentage for the first time since 2017. Chargers punter JK Scott is a Mullen alum. Edge: Chargers

Tale of the tape

* Through Week 17

By the numbers

10: The number of times the Broncos have won four or fewer games in a season, dating back to 1960. The franchise record for fewest victories is two (1963, 1964, 1982).

499: Total regular-season wins for the Broncos.

299: Total home wins for the Broncos during the regular season.

7: Consecutive AFC West titles for the Chiefs; the Broncos last won the division in 2015, and the Chargers haven’t won it since 2009.

7: Consecutive years the Broncos have missed the playoffs since winning Super Bowl 50. It’s the league’s second-longest active playoff drought behind the Jets (12 seasons).

Betting/fantasy

Line: Chargers -2.5

This line is no doubt subject to last-second change should the Ravens lose Sunday morning. If you’ve watched this pitiful Broncos team all season, you know to play the odds and bet on the Chargers.

Prop bet: Over/under 40 points

Regular season finales can be tough to predict, especially if neither team has anything left to play for. But they’re liable to get wild, and when they get wild, the defenses usually suffer. Take the over.

Post predictions

Mark Kiszla, columnist:  Broncos 20, Chargers 17

Jerry Rosburg, the pigskin poet laureate of Denver’s lost season, delivers a soliloquy worthy of William Shakespeare after the Broncos’ play for pride and the joy of beleaguered home fans. All’s well that end’s well. Or something like that.

Kyle Newman, beat writer: Chargers 24, Broncos 21

In a fitting ending to a dumpster-fire season, Justin Herbert or Chase Daniel engineers a last-second, game-winning drive to beat the Broncos and leave the home crowd booing as they leave. Another loss that proves there are serious question marks about Russell Wilson, who throws at least one game-changing interception for a third straight week.

Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Broncos 21, Chargers 17

Sure, there’s nothing important to play for — Denver hasn’t had that in several weeks — but the Broncos turned in a try-hard performance against Kansas City last week. One more Sunday in the season finale and Jerry Rosburg may head back into retirement with a win on his NFL head-coaching ledger. Last time this team played at home, it grounded and pounded to 168 rushing yards, two touchdowns and a win against Arizona. Sounds like a good recipe.

Sean Keeler, columnist: Broncos 21, Chargers 20

Jerry Rosburg’s first week on the job proved what many had suspected all along: This roster needed a “dad” in charge as opposed to Nathaniel Hackett����ap “cool older brother” vibe. And how can you not love a mug who name-drops Sonny Liston and Joe Palooka in the same sound bite?

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Throughout August, Paton would watch the offensive line, the back-of-the-roster receivers and, of course, quarterback Russell Wilson. He didn’t use many minutes breaking down cornerback Pat Surtain II’s morning of work.

“It����ap kind of like his college tape — nobody throws at him,” Paton said. “He makes it look easy. I joke that it����ap boring, but when they do throw at him, it����ap pretty cool.”

Year 2 of PS2 could be pretty cool.

Surtain, who was Paton’s first Broncos draft pick (No. 9 in 2021), debuted with four interceptions, 14 total pass break-ups and only two penalties. The next step could be eye-popping.

“When you have a guy like him and he’s handling everything the right way, he changes our secondary,” defensive backs coach Christian Parker said. “The mental part of the game is slowing down for him and the physical part is becoming second nature.”

Surtain, 22, could be a fascinating watch for Broncos fans … if opponents challenge him. It could be an opportunity to see Surtain ascend to elite status … if he gets enough play-making chances. And it could be the start of a decade of shut-down corner play … if the Broncos are able to play with more second-half leads.

Surtain wants the action.

“(Not getting targeted) is a compliment, but also, it����ap like, ‘Dang, my stat sheet isn’t going to be up there (with the other top corners),’” he said. “Obviously, you’re doing something good (when not challenged). You always have to be engaged. You can’t take a play off because that����ap when they get you.”

The track record of top-10 cornerbacks is underwhelming, to be kind, and disastrous to be blunt.

From 2012-20, nine cornerbacks were drafted in the top 10. Only three can be considered “hits” — Buffalo’s Stephon Gilmore in 2012 (No. 10), Jacksonville’s Jalen Ramsey in ‘16 (No. 5) and Cleveland’s Denzel Ward in ’18 (No. 5).

Gilmore had one interception as a rookie and two in his second year. He left the Bills via free agency for New England, where he was a two-time first-team All-Pro.

Ramsey increased his rookie-year-to-second-year production from two to four interceptions and was named first-team All-Pro in ’17. He was traded to the Los Angeles Rams in 2019 amid a contract squabble.

Ward had three and two interceptions in his first two NFL seasons and signed a five-year, $100.5 million contract extension in April.

The rest didn’t pan out.

Morris Claiborne (No. 6 to Dallas in 2012) played for three teams. Dee Milliner (No. 9 to the New York Jets in ’13) played only nine career games because of injuries. Justin Gilbert (No. 8 to Cleveland in ’14) was traded to Pittsburgh before his third season and one career interception. Eli Apple (No. 10 to the Giants in 16) has five interceptions in 73 games and is on his fourth team. And in 2020, Detroit drafted Jeff Okudah third overall (one interception in two years) and Jacksonville selected C.J. Henderson at No. 9 (he was traded to Carolina early in his second season).

The expectation for Surtain should be Ramsey-like if the Broncos want to use him as a matchup-centric chess piece.

“That����ap what this game is all about — you’re trying to find matchups,” defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero said. “You want your best players having a heavy-duty role covering their best players and things of that nature. He’s one of our better players and we’re always going to try to feature him in the best way.”

Entering last season, Surtain was the No. 3 cornerback and projected as a move-around player, fast enough to cover the outside receiver, but also physical and technically savvy enough to work against slot receivers and tight ends. That plan, though, was nixed late in Week 1 when Ronald Darby sustained a hamstring injury.

Darby is back and the Broncos signed K’Waun Williams to replace Bryce Callahan as the nickel, allowing for the question of how Surtain can be unleashed.

“It����ap up for grabs,” Paton said. “It obviously gives us flexibility. He can play anywhere on the field — inside, right, left, wherever — if they intend to use him like that.”

Entering the season opener Monday night at Seattle, the anticipation from those outside the organization about Surtain’s second year is matched by those inside.

“I’m always excited to come here and see what step he’ll take next,” safety Kareem Jackson said. “He never disappoints with that.”

Said Paton: “Pat has everything you want (physically). Most importantly, he has the mind and he has the drive.”

I hear a lot about how great our defense is based on stats from last year. However, all was not perfect. In the meantime, we lost Vic Fangio (one of the best defensive minds in the game) replaced by a question mark to call defensive plays (no disrespect and no judgment to Ejiro Evero), we lost several players and we currently lack some depth, especially in the secondary. Do you think we can count on the defense to still be a strength, or could it become our Achilles heel?

— Yoann, Beine-Nauroy, France

Well, general manager George Paton’s activity last month showed he wasn’t overly thrilled with the play of the Broncos’ defense last year.

Since the start of free agency, the Broncos have signed edge rusher Randy Gregory, defensive end/nose tackle D.J. Jones, nickel cornerback K’Wuan Williams and inside linebacker Alex Singleton. Only Singleton didn’t sign a multi-year deal. Reinforcements were required and Paton isn’t done yet (draft).

Evero will be calling the defensive plays for the first time and there should be a transition expected. It just needs to happen quickly. Helping Evero will be his 14 years of NFL experience and working for Fangio, Monte Kiffin, Dom Capers, Wade Phillips, Brandon Staley and Raheem Morris.

Are the Broncos done signing free agents or will they bring back safety Kareem Jackson or cornerback Bryce Callahan and maybe re-sign running back Melvin Gordon to back up Javonte Williams?

— Michael Gower, Ansonia, Ohio

The door likely closed on Callahan when the Broncos signed nickel cornerback K’Wuan Williams from San Francisco last month.

At the league’s Annual Meeting last week, general manager George Paton said the door remained open to re-signing Gordon and Jackson. Gordon’s role would likely be different (back up to Williams), but Jackson’s starting spot remains vacant.

Hello from Finland! Are the Broncos going to re-structure more contracts to free up cap space? Should the Broncos sign safety Tyrann Mathieu?

— Jude, Lahti, Finland

As of Monday afternoon, the Broncos had $17,767,914 in salary cap space according to the union, so they don’t need to move any money around via re-structured contracts.

I am more in favor of adding a safety through the draft or leaning on Caden Sterns to play Kareem Jackson’s spot alongside Justin Simmons.

There are still some veteran edge rushers on the market, led by Trey Flowers, Jason Pierre-Paul and Melvin Ingram if the Broncos feel they want to spend money on that position instead of a draft pick.

Hey Ryan, just for fun (since the season opener is still months away), how would the tiebreaker work if all four AFC West teams went 11-6 with each going 3-3 in the division? Let����ap say they each win their divisional home games to make things equal across the board. Thanks and keep up the great work!

— Taylor O., Broomfield

Good grief, what a headache. The good news is if this actually happened, I’m pretty confident predicting all four teams would make the playoffs.

I dug into the NFL’s website and its tiebreaking procedures for “three or more clubs.”

Nos. 1 and 2 — head-to-head and division record — are a wash since everybody was 3-3 and went 1-1 against the other three teams.

We could probably declare a winner with tiebreaker No. 3 — win percentage in “common games” which includes the AFC West����ap games against the NFC West and AFC South this year.

For giggles, there are 12 tiebreaking procedures listed, including “ranking among all teams in points scored and allowed in all games,” and “best net touchdowns” and, finally, “coin toss.”

What are the chances the Broncos bring in native Coloradan, local legend and all-around good guy Nate Solder to help solidify the offensive line?

— Eric, Nashville

Solder, who attended Buena Vista High and Colorado before New England drafted him in the first round 11 years ago, is a free agent. He turns 34 next week.

Solder is more of a left tackle by trade and has started 143 regular-season games, including 16 for the Giants last year. The Broncos are set at left tackle with Garett Bolles and so far have a three-person right tackle competition between Calvin Anderson, Billy Turner and Tom Compton.

Ryan, what happened to Kenny Young and Stephen Weatherly? I thought both were good additions to the team last year. What do you think the odds will be for keeping Melvin Gordon? Being part of a running back tandem again, albeit as the backup, would almost certainly extend his career.

— Arty Smith, Steamboat Springs

Young and Weatherly remain free agents after both were acquired in midseason trades last year.

Young played in six games and had 29 tackles, but sustained a concussion against Detroit and missed the final four games. At inside linebacker, the Broncos return Baron Browning and Josey Jewell and signed Alex Singleton.

Weatherly provided edge-rushing depth and had 2 1/2 sacks and 14 tackles in nine games (one start). The Broncos still need outside linebacker depth after signing Randy Gregory.

Because Gordon remains on the market, I would say it’s less than 50-50 he returns to the Broncos or else they would have signed him already, right?

Who are some players in the draft that are projected in rounds 2-4 that would be great scheme fits for the Broncos? It appears right tackle, another slot corner and another edge rusher are our primary needs. Running back, receiver, tight end and defensive line would also fill depth holes if the right value is there.

— Marco, Memphis

Well, Marco listed seven position needs for the Broncos’ eight picks. Here are some players to keep in mind for five position groups.

Safety: Maryland’s Nick Cross, Georgia’s Lewis Cine and Illinois’ Kerby Joseph.

Edge rusher: South Carolina’s Kingsley Enagbare and Dominique Robinson of Miami (Ohio).

Running back: Florida’s Dameon Pierce and Notre Dame’s Kyren Williams.

Right tackle: Tulsa’s Tyler Smith and Minnesota’s Daniel Faalele.

Tight end: Virginia’s Jelani Woods.

Williams, 30, played a career-high 648 defensive snaps for the 49ers last season in 14 games (eight starts).

Once a deal is complete, Williams will be the favorite to replace Bryce Callahan, who remains a free agent.

Adding Williams falls in line with the plan set last week by Broncos general manager George Paton, who said his intention was to add “one or two cornerbacks, definitely.”

Williams would slide into the No. 3 cornerback spot behind Pat Surtain II and Ronald Darby and ahead of Michael Ojemudia and Essang Bassey.

Williams played at Pittsburgh in college and entered the NFL with Cleveland in 2014 as an undrafted free agent. He played two years for the Browns (26 games/10 starts, two sacks and 77 tackles), but was cut in August 2016 after coach Hue Jackson suspended him two weeks following a dispute with the staff about his physical condition (ankle injury) and playing time.

Williams was claimed by Chicago but then waived two weeks later. He then signed with San Francisco. In five seasons with the 49ers, he started 36 of 65 regular-season games and had four interceptions, eight forced fumbles, five sacks and 224 tackles in 2,762 snaps.

In three playoff games last year, Williams had one interception and eight tackles.

Winners

Veteran quarterbacks. Check out the list of quarterbacks who have changed teams via trade: Russell Wilson (Broncos), Matt Ryan (Indianapolis), Deshaun Watson (Cleveland) and Carson Wentz (Washington). Baker Mayfield remains on the block.

Buffalo. The Bills made a big splash by signing Von Miller ($51.4 million guaranteed), but they improved team-wide by adding Tampa Bay tight end O.J. Howard, New York Jets receiver Jamison Crowder, Carolina defensive tackle DaQuan Jones, Washington defensive tackle Tim Settle and Tennessee guard Rodger Saffold (who was cut by the Titans).

Chargers defense. The Bolts finished 30th in rush defense (138.9), last on third down (49.5%) and tied for 29th in points allowed (27.0 per game) last year. General manager Tom Telesco traded for Chicago pass rusher Khalil Mack and signed the market����ap best cornerback, New England’s J.C. Jackson ($40 million guaranteed), while also adding quality Rams defensive tackle Sebastian Joseph-Day ($16.5 million guaranteed).

Edge rushers. Five free agents changed teams for contracts averaging $14 million and with whopping guarantees: Miller, Randy Gregory (Dallas to Broncos), Chandler Jones (Arizona to Las Vegas), Haason Reddick (Carolina to Philadelphia) and Za’Darius Smith (Green Bay to Minnesota after being cut).

Joe Burrow’s pass protection. Burrow was sacked a combined 70 times in the regular season/playoffs, but still stayed healthy and led Cincinnati to the Super Bowl. The Bengals acted accordingly, signing right guard Alex Cappa, center Ted Karras and right tackle La’el Collins.

Losers

Broncos free agents. Of their 17 unrestricted free agents, only two — quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and linebacker Micah Kiser — have signed with new teams. Running back Melvin Gordon, safety Kareem Jackson, inside linebacker Alexander Johnson and cornerback Bryce Callahan remain on the market.

New England. The Patriots’ big in-house move was re-signing right tackle Trent Brown, running back James White and special teams standout Matthew Slater. Their 2021 spending spree limited their activity this month, but they are making big bets on receivers Nelson Agholor, tight end Jonnu Smith and defensive linemen Davon Godchaux/Henry Anderson to play up to their salaries after non-descript first seasons.

Cornerback market. Only three cornerbacks have changed teams for contracts averaging at least $10 million — the Chargers’ Jackson ($16.5 million average), Charvarius Ward ($13.5 million to join San Francisco) and Darious Williams ($10 million to join Jacksonville). Veterans still available included Joe Haden, Stephon Gilmore, Chris Harris, Patrick Peterson, Xavier Rhodes and Janoris Jenkins.

Atlanta. The Falcons could have drafted quarterbacks Justin Fields or Mac Jones fourth overall last year and kick-started a rebuild, but they stuck with Ryan. That appeared to be their plan for 2022, too, until the Falcons went all in for quarterback Deshaun Watson last week. The failed-and-clunky pursuit sent Ryan a message that it was time to move on and he was replaced by Marcus Mariota. The Falcons also lost NFL-leading tackler Foyesade Oluokun (Jaguars) and receiver Russell Gage (Tampa Bay).

Dallas. Let����ap go to Cowboys headquarters for this free-agent update: Zzzzzzzz. Gregory? Gone. Receiver Cedrick Wilson and guard Connor Williams? Gone to Miami. Collins? Cut. Through Tuesday, Dallas had not added an unrestricted free agent from another team; defensive end Dante Fowler was signed after Atlanta cut him.

Tight ends come in two varieties: Blocking or pass-catching. Why bother with the blocking version and just use another offensive lineman? When the blocking tight end is in, it signals a run play. Asking the pass-catching version to block can mean a missed assignment. Why ask a player to do what they’re not good at?

— David Brown, Silverthorne

RO: In a simplified NFL, a run play would call for a sixth lineman on the field and a pass play would call for 1-2 tight ends on the field.

Why bother with a blocking tight end? Because those players can still run routes to create an element of being unpredictable. If you have a sixth lineman, you’re yelling, “We’re going to run it!” By having a tight end on the field, you can run or pass.

Asking a pass-catching tight end to block also gives the defense more things to think about.

In the Russell Wilson trade, the Broncos got a fourth-round pick and gave up a fifth. In a massive trade like this, what is the point of such a swap?

— Ab, Las Vegas

RO: Good question because I asked Broncos general manager George Paton that very question.

“I love the fourth round,” he told me. “I just kind of like the top of the fourth better than the top of the fifth. It was the final piece (of the trade).”

The Broncos have two picks in the fourth round and one in the fifth round instead of one in the fourth and two in the fifth.

Why did we re-structure the contracts of Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick and let Garett Bolles’ $20 million-plus go unchecked? Teddy Bridgewater was let down because of Bolles. Cut Bolles and get somebody who can block for a change.

— Levi Trujillo, Denver

RO: It����ap all about how the contracts were structured in the first place and in particular, when they were signed. Bolles is in Year 2 of his four-year deal so that is one fewer season to spread out the signing bonus money compared to Sutton, who is in Year 1 of his four-year contract.

This is a huge year for Bolles. He played well in 2020 to earn a new contract in late November of that season, but leveled off last year and missed time with an injury.

After this season, the Broncos can cut Bolles with a dead cap hit of $8 million and savings of $10 million.

Ryan, the AFC West is getting wild. The amount of talent landing here this offseason is absurd. I had the Chiefs at No. 1 and Broncos at No. 2 after the trade for Russell Wilson, but I don’t know anymore. How would you rank the AFC West? Can we see all four teams in the playoffs?

— Marc, Arvada

RO: It is possible for all four teams to make the playoffs because one would be the division champion and the other three would be the wild cards (Nos. 5-7). But that is unlikely to happen because the quartet of teams are expected to be so good, which means they could cancel each other out.

My division rankings:

1. Kansas City. The Chiefs belong atop the table so long as quarterback Patrick Mahomes remains healthy. The signing of Pittsburgh receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster was brilliant.

2. Broncos. The Wilson Effect moves them from last to second.

3. L.A. Chargers. Justin Herbert has top receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back and the defense added pass rusher Khalil Mack and cornerback J.C. Jackson.

4. Las Vegas. The Raiders would be the favorite in the AFC South after adding receiver Davante Adams and pass rusher Chandler Jones.

We need to shore up our cornerback situation. Who do you think would be a realistic fit for us who’s still available in free agency?

— Ron, Parker

RO: You’re 100% accurate about the Broncos needing to add at cornerback and Paton said last Friday the goal is to “definitely” add one or two corners.

The free-agent class, though, has been thinned out by signings by other teams. Right now, the Broncos have a top four of Pat Surtain II, Ronald Darby, Michael Ojemudia and Essang Bassey. They could circle back to free agent Bryce Callahan to play the nickel spot, but would need depth behind him (Bassey maybe).

A bunch of veterans, as of Monday afternoon, remain on the market, including Janoris Jenkins, Xavier Rhodes and Joe Haden, but they don’t appear to be a fit for the Broncos.

“This offseason really just started with (the first week of) free agency,” he said.

Paton is 100% correct because two things can be true at the same time: The Broncos have checked off critical boxes, led by the trade for quarterback Russell Wilson, getting a pass rusher in Gregory and a run stopper in Jones, but they also have gaps in their to-do list.

As the Broncos turn toward the second week of free agency, which for them essentially began by agreeing to terms with back-up quarterback Josh Johnson and linebacker Alex Singleton, and the draft although they aren’t currently scheduled to pick until No. 64, they will continue to grind out deals and prospect evaluations.

Here are five position groups they will be (should be?) focused on:

1. Cornerback

The Broncos have Pat Surtain II and Ronald Darby as their starters … then a bunch of back-of-the-roster players.

“We’ll keep monitoring the guys who get cut and the corners that are still available,” Paton said. “We need to add a corner or two, definitely.”

Nickel back Bryce Callahan is a free agent and Paton said the Broncos have talked to his camp about staying put. Callahan missed 28 of a possible 49 Broncos games from 2019-21 because of injuries so it����ap buyer beware and Paton is clearly aware or else Callahan would already be back.

The cornerback market is thinning, though. Atlanta’s Fabian Moreau is available, but according to Pro Football Reference, he allowed eight touchdown catches last year, and veterans Patrick Peterson (Minnesota) and Josh Norman (San Francisco).

Under contract after Surtain and Darby are Michael Ojemduia and Essang Bassey.

2. Right tackle

The Broncos retained Calvin Anderson and signed Tom Compton (San Francisco) to one-year contracts and incumbent starter Bobby Massie remains on the free-agent market.

“We signed (Compton) and we feel good about him and Calvin,” Paton said. “We’re going to continue to add among the offensive line, whether through free agency or the draft.”

Compton brings position versatility, primarily a guard until the 49ers needed him at right tackle last year for the final 10 regular season/playoff games.

What will crystallize through free agency and the draft is what coach Nathaniel Hackett thinks of his left guard Dalton Risner, center Lloyd Cushenberry and guard/center Graham Glasgow and does he believe two of the three can start in his system (assuming Quinn Meinerz is locked in at right guard).

3. Safety

Paton said the Broncos have talked to safety Kareem Jackson’s agent and voiced an openness for Jackson to return. But like with Callahan, if they really thought Jackson can be a core player in 2022, he’d already be signed.

Jackson led the Broncos last year with 14 missed tackles, eight more than the next-closest player (safety Justin Simmons).

Asked at the NFL combine if second-year safety Caden Sterns could take over for Jackson, Paton wasn’t ready to anoint him.

“Caden showed some signs,” Paton said. “He had two starts and played a lot in our dime package and he just needs to keep developing and become a pro. He needs to be available. He had some nicks that kept him out of (two) games. If you’re going to be a starter, you need to be available, but really talented, he has range, he has ball skills and he can tackle; I’m really happy with his progress. But Kareem Jackson is a hard guy to replace.”

4. Tight end

Trading Noah Fant, who led the Broncos with 68 catches last year, to Seattle created a void at tight end. Okwuegbunam is the current starter but he has played only 18 games and 507 offensive snaps in two years.

“We feel good about Albert,” Paton said.

But …

“We’re going to bring in some competition for him,” Paton said. “We’re looking and I’m sure we’ll address it in the draft.”

The Broncos signed blocking tight end Eric Tomlinson to a one-year contract on Wednesday so the focus will be finding a player who has some of Okwuegbunam’s pass-catching skills and some of Tomlinson’s run-blocking ability.

5. Outside linebacker

Paton often says a team “can’t have enough” depth at edge rusher and cornerback. The top three edge rushers are Gregory, Bradley Chubb and Jonathon Cooper. The Broncos can match any offer sheet signed by Malik Reed, and Aaron Patrick and Andre Mintze remain under contract.

An outside linebacker in rounds 3-7 of the draft will likely be addressed.