U.S. Sens. Michael Bennet and John Hickenlooper each notched approval ratings below 40% in the poll, with their disapproval ratings reaching 44% and 49%, respectively. Gov. Jared Polis’ approval was slightly better, at 41% — though that came with the caveat that a majority of voters, 52%, outright disapproved of the term-limited governor, according to the survey by Broomfield-based .

The rotten marks for the politicians fall within Colorado voters’ general malaise for politics. Both the Republican and Democratic parties had identical top-line favorabilities — of 68% negative versus 30% positive — albeit with different undercurrents driving the disdain for either.

And a majority of Colorado voters in the survey thought the state was on the wrong track. A majority predicted the state and national economies would take downward turns in the next 12 months.

Though Polis won’t be on next year’s ballot, Bennet is running to succeed him as governor and Hickenlooper is up for reelection. The poll did not ask respondents about Bennet’s leading Democratic primary opponent, Attorney General Phil Weiser.

The results show Coloradans in a bleak state of mind — but not necessarily looking to shed the state’s recent blue streak.

“Although Colorado remains a blue state, the well-documented decline in the national Democratic Party’s image rating and brand is real and apparent among Colorado voters,” David Flaherty, CEO of Magellan, said in an email.

“However,” he added, “it does not mean (President Donald) Trump and the Republicans are winning over hearts and minds. If they were, the wide range of Trump policies we tested would be getting better job approval ratings.”

The poll was conducted July 30 through Aug. 12 using text-message outreach. Pollsters surveyed 1,136 registered voters, and the data has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. Magellan, a conservative-leaning firm that often conducts polling for clients, paid for the poll itself.

Democrats still well-positioned for 2026

By more than 2-to-1 margins, Colorado voters surveyed didn’t feel good about the Democratic Party — and the disdain was shared by many Democratic voters.

Among those who voted for Kamala Harris for president last year, 47% reported unfavorable opinions of the party. Of registered Democrats, 41% reported unfavorable opinions toward their party.

As an anonymous Democratic woman in Arapahoe County characterized it in her survey response, the party has “no backbone, no follow-through, poor (or no) response to both mundane and gripping issues.”

Some Denver voters are souring on Mayor Mike Johnston, poll shows, but experts say he could regain footing

The Democrats' hole only deepened among unaffiliated voters, the largest voting bloc in the state. Seventy percent of those voters expressed an unfavorable opinion of the party.

The only silver lining for Democrats? Unaffiliated voters feel the same about the GOP.

The poll found voters’ problems with Democrats were reflected on some of the top officials in the state. Democrats hold every statewide office in Colorado and control both chambers of the state legislature.

Polis, who's entering his final year as governor due to term limits, was 11 points underwater in voter approval in the poll. That includes disapproval of his job performance by 24% of registered Democrats and Harris voters, and by half of unaffiliated voters.

Bennet and Hickenlooper find themselves in similar positions.

Bennet had 44% disapproval to 38% approval. Among Democrats and Harris voters, his approval jumped to 61% and 62%, respectively, though he was also underwater with unaffiliated voters at 39% approval and 45% disapproval.

However, the poor showing for Democrats doesn’t seem to put a terrible damper on their prospects heading into the next general election in 2026.

When asked how they'd vote If the election were held today, 50% of respondents said they would probably or definitely support the Democratic nominee for governor, versus 38% who'd support the Republican.

If congressional elections were held today, voters also gave Democrats a clear advantage in four of the state's eight congressional districts -- the ones currently represented by Democrats. The smaller sample size at the district level, however, came with larger margins of error of more than 8 percentage points.

The party also held a smaller edge for a fifth seat, according to the poll -- and a surprising one at that.

The poll found 47% of voters in the typically red 5th Congressional District in El Paso County would probably support the Democratic nominee there, versus 39% for the Republican nominee. In 2024, Republican Rep. Jeff Crank won the seat with nearly 55% of the vote.

In two other Republican seats -- the contentious 8th Congressional District, held by Rep. Gabe Evans, and the 3rd Congressional District, held by Rep. Jeff Hurd -- the poll results show the eventual GOP nominees with 5-point advantages, though the party doesn't crack 50% support in either case. The 4th Congressional District, now represented by Rep. Lauren Boebert, looks to remain as ruby red as ever, with voters there leaning Republican by 20 points.

“With the Democratic brand in the dumpster nationally, and three out of four voters disapproving of the Democrats in Washington, it will likely be easier for Congressional Republicans like Gabe Evans to win re-election,” Flaherty wrote, referring to overall approval ratings of congressional Democrats.

“Now, November 2026 is a long way off, and things could change," he said, "but the Democrats should not waste a lot of time crafting their agenda and priorities for the American people.”

Trump, tariffs and the ‘big, beautiful bill’

Colorado voters, who rejected Trump in three presidential elections in a row, continue to disapprove of the Republican. Overall, 41% of voters approved of the job he's doing, compared to 56% who strongly disapproved, according to the poll.

Their disapproval also extends to three cornerstones of his second term in office so far: 56% of voters in the survey held very unfavorable views of the tax and spending bill known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” with total unfavorability reaching 63%; 57% opposed Trump’s tariffs, while 80% said they would make the price of goods more expensive; and 51% strongly disapproved of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, with total disapproval reaching 57%.

In all cases, the margins widen when only unaffiliated voters are accounted for. Within that group of voters, 68% disliked the spending bill, 62% opposed Trump’s tariffs and 60% disapproved of the job ICE was doing.

Unlike Democrats, where even the base has softened its support, Colorado Republicans and Trump voters still back their guy. 

On the spending bill, 79% of Trump voters and 84% of Republicans had a favorable view, while 90% and 91% supported Trump’s tariffs and ICE, respectively.

Republicans also held their party in higher regard than Democrats did theirs, with 87% having favorable views of the GOP.

Voters will decide on Proposition HH this November. If it passes, it would change how property tax is calculated — potentially saving property owners hundreds of dollars a year they’d owe otherwise, though overall property taxes would likely still increase — while also upping how much money the state can keep under the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights, or TABOR, for the next decade.

Its other provisions include an expansion of the homestead exemption, and set aside money for the state education fund and a rental assistance program. It would also trigger a one-year flattening of TABOR refunds for the next year, sending lower-income Coloradans about an extra $160 or more by cutting into higher-income Coloradans’ refunds, according to state forecasts.

Most voters — nearly two-thirds, or 64%, — said they aren’t too familiar or not familiar at all with the proposal as of late June and early July, when pollsters conducted interviews. Magellan Strategies, based in Louisville, paid for and conducted the poll. It’s the first public poll to gauge support for the measure.

A majority, though, said they’d either definitely or probably approve of Proposition HH after reading the ballot language. It’s after they learn more about it — long-term effects on the state budget and TABOR refunds, temporary flattening of TABOR refunds, details of how it would backfill local governments, and rental assistance among them — that support dips below that threshold.

Approval for the measure goes from 54% when respondents just read the ballot measure to 43% when they hear more. Undecided voters remain near static, at 12% and 11%, respectively. However, 71% of all respondents said they’re still ultimately undecided.

“I wouldn’t call HH a dead goner by any means,” pollster David Flaherty said. “Put it in the toss-up category, and wait and see how the masters of the universe and those with all the money decide to support or fight this thing.”

The poll didn’t seek to influence voters or test messages, Flaherty said, but sought to gauge people’s opinions as they learned more. He acknowledged it as a tough needle to thread and that some angles, such as school funding, weren’t explicitly polled because the firm didn’t have solid projections on the measure’s effects.

“Right now, this thing is just a Rubik’s Cube,” Flaherty said. “It has its supporters. On a cold reading of it, you have the majority, but as people learn more about it, it gets complex.”

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. The firm conducted an online survey of 662 Coloradans likely to vote in the November election. Magellan has a B/C rating from poll aggregator .

It was weighted to reflect turnout demographics in an odd-year cycle. Homeowners made up 77% of respondents, which was not weighted. Flaherty said that figure may be high for where actual voter turnout ends up, but noted typical odd-year election turnout tends to reflect people more likely to own their home.

The measure was sent to the ballot by Democratic lawmakers in the waning days of the most recent legislative session. It has already survived one lawsuit and is sure to face stiff opposition from conservative groups that are already framing it as an attack on TABOR refunds.

The for-and-against campaigns for the measure haven’t yet taken full shape, with the election still months away. In the spring, Gov. Jared Polis held a signing ceremony for the bill that sent the measure to voters and has plainly stated his support for the measure. In a recent interview, he reiterated that support and that he’d be “happy to share with folks why cutting property taxes is a good idea right now.”

“(Proposition HH) is a small part of the housing solution — certainly, higher property tax rates make living in Colorado less affordable,” Polis said. “It doesn’t fix it, and we need to fix it, but certainly, higher property taxes would raise the cost of housing in our state, including raising rents, and that would set us back and make it even hard to deliver on solving our housing crisis.”

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But not in Colorado — where metro Denver’s suburban counties helped power former Vice President Joe Biden to a statewide victory that more than doubled Hillary Clinton’s 5-percentage-point margin over now-President Trump in 2016.

Biden led Trump statewide 55% to 42% on Friday afternoon, a 13-point margin, though outstanding ballots could change it slightly. In Arapahoe, Adams, Broomfield, Jefferson and Douglas counties, an average margin for Clinton of 5 percentage points four years ago — on par with the statewide margin — grew to an eye-popping 15.6 percentage points for Biden that outpaced the rest of Colorado, according to a Denver Post analysis of election results.

Take out Douglas, a more right-leaning county that supported Trump by more than 6 percentage points, and the other four counties broke for Biden by nearly 21 points, led by Broomfield at 27 points.

Some of that shift is due to this year’s lack of high-profile third-party candidates, who ate into Clinton’s margin in 2016. The former secretary of state also was a more polarizing Democratic nominee than Biden would end up being.

But the leftward march of Denver’s suburbs, while predating Trump, has only accelerated in the last four years. The suburban counties are growing fast, they’re diversifying, and they’re full of the kind of white-collar workers who have turned sharply against the president.

The 2018 midterm election, in which unaffiliated voters delivered a blowout for Colorado Democrats, had prompted a warning by local Republican pollster David Flaherty: More pain was coming for the state GOP in 2020, when Trump would actually be on the ballot.

What he couldn’t have predicted then was a pandemic in an election year that deepened divides even more.

“In Colorado, (the Trump factor) is not a winner — we’re not a Midwestern state,” where blue-collar voters provide a counter-current for the president, said Flaherty, the founder of Louisville-based Magellan Strategies, on Thursday. “There’s simply very little Republicans could have done this cycle because of the sheer math of the turnout.”

Indeed, a new poll of 900 voters who cast ballots in Colorado’s election shows several dynamics drove support for Biden, including some that are key to the suburbs. Biden led Trump by 25 percentage points among unaffiliated voters, by 23 points among voters younger than 44, by 51 points among Latino voters and by 24 points among white college-educated voters.

The poll included a sample representative of Colorado’s voter turnout and was conducted Oct. 31 to Nov. 4 by Democratic polling firm Global Strategy Group for ProgressNow Colorado, a liberal advocacy group, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Republicans lose local offices

Colorado’s rejection of Trump had big down-ballot consequences. U.S. Sen. Cory Gardner lost Tuesday to Democratic former Gov. John Hickenlooper, trailing by 8.8 percentage points in the latest returns.

In Arapahoe and Jefferson counties, both former swing counties, a handful of Republican state legislators managed to survive close races — but the party’s loss of local elected offices continued.

“When I came to the commission in 2015, there was one elected Democrat in the county government,” recalled Jefferson County Commissioner Libby Szabo. “When I leave in January 2021, there will be one elected Republican, and that will be the sheriff.”

Szabo lost her bid for reelection on Tuesday to Democrat Tracy Kraft-Tharp, a term-limited state representative, by 8 percentage points. She takes solace in the fact that she outperformed Trump, who lost to Biden in Jeffco by nearly 19 percentage points. But now all three county commissioners will be Democrats.

In Arapahoe County, voters flipped the county commission from a 3-2 Republican majority to a 3-2 Democratic edge — which would grow to 4-1 in the event of a loss by another Republican incumbent who’s on the ropes. But that commissioner led his Democratic challenger by 162 votes as of Friday afternoon.

In the 18th Judicial District attorney’s race, which includes Arapahoe and Douglas counties, another partisan flip had looked possible for a Republican-held office. After Democratic candidate Amy Padden initially led by a slim margin, however, she trailed Republican John Kellner by 1,551 votes Friday. A winner had not been declared.

The Republican brand has suffered under Trump, unaffiliated voter Tom Skarbowski suggested, but he puts the blame on the general direction of the party in recent years. He lives in a subdivision in unincorporated Arapahoe County and has voted for candidates from both parties, including Gardner in 2014 — though he later protested outside Gardner’s office.

“(Trump) set the tone and everybody else has followed,” said Skarbowski, 66. “It����ap the old saying, ‘The buck stops here.’ He’s taken over the whole GOP.”

Even if Trump ceases to dominate the party, he said, “I think it would take several cycles before they would get the confidence back again.”

Other dynamics boosted Biden

The Post’s analysis found that Biden’s outperformance of Clinton’s 2016 margin by 8 percentage points was driven by shifts toward the Democratic presidential candidate in 50 of the state’s 64 counties. But the Denver area’s suburban counties stand out, since four of them ranked among the state’s top six for number of ballots returned.

The largest gain was in tiny San Juan County, where Biden improved on Clinton’s margin by 15 percentage points.

Besides the suburban counties, Biden stocked up on votes in other types of counties:

• • Large liberal powerhouses, including Denver, where the Democratic presidential margin increased by about 10 percentage points, and Boulder, where it increased by 9.
  • Tourism-heavy mountain counties, including Summit (12.1-point gain), Gunnison (11.5-point gain) and San Miguel (10.7-point gain).
  • Reliably red counties won by Trump, but by narrower margins this time. The Democratic deficit shrank by 11.5 percentage points in El Paso, by 10.9 in Douglas, by 8.9 in Mesa and by 4.2 in Weld.
  • Three counties that swung from Trump in 2016 to the Democrat this time — Chaffee (11.3 points), Garfield (9.2) and Pueblo (2.3). In Latino- and blue-collar-heavy Pueblo County, Trump won by 0.5 percentage points in 2016, but Biden led Friday by 1.8 points.

A permanent realignment?

In releasing the Global Strategy Group’s new poll, called The Rocky Mountaineer, the pollsters characterized the suburban counties’ significant Democratic shifts as likely enduring.

“These white-collar suburbs are no longer swing areas as they actually went about as strongly for Biden as El Paso and Douglas counties did for (Republican nominee Mitt) Romney in 2012,” wrote Andrew Baumann and Stephen Riggs.

Arapahoe County Democratic Party Chair Kristin Mallory hopes that’s true.

She gives Trump credit for mobilizing Democrats and unaffiliated voters in opposition to him, but she says the area’s demographic changes and growth have changed the political makeup even more. She said the local party also has developed a more coordinated approach to campaigning.

“For all intents and purposes, Arapahoe County is pretty dang blue,” Mallory said.

Szabo, the defeated Jeffco commissioner, also isn’t convinced Trump is the only factor in the growing Democratic margins on her side of the metro area.

But Flaherty predicts that Republicans’ prospects may improve in Colorado, including in the suburbs, when Trump is out of the national picture.

Without Trump’s presence, coming state legislative sessions dominated by Democrats and a redistricting process set to play out next year could alter some of Colorado’s political dynamics, Flaherty said.

“All those things do point to a brighter day for Republicans to pick themselves up and dust themselves off and make a case for why their solutions are perhaps better for Coloradans than 100% Democratic management,” he said. “They won’t have to cringe from a tweet or a statement from Donald Trump.”

“I guess in my early years, I didn’t really understand (its importance),” the Lakewood resident said after he voted in person Thursday at the Belmar Library. “I was kind of oblivious to many things.”

Like Jackson, unaffiliated voter Tabor Benton, 24, turned in his ballot for the first time Thursday.

“I thought I needed to do it in this political climate,” he said at the drop box at Mission Viejo Library in Aurora, adding, “I think it����ap just really how the coronavirus has been handled.”

Jackson and Benton are among 2,524,240 Coloradans who cast their ballots as of Sunday morning — and also among the nearly 37% who are unaffiliated. More than 67% of Colorado’s active voters and 59% of eligible voters have cast their ballots, according to Judd Choate, the state’s election director.

“At this pace Colorado could be the first U.S. state (ever) to reach 80% turnout among eligible voters,” Choate .

The turnout numbers have already set records for two days before the election, noted Republican pollster David Flaherty of Magellan Strategies.

“What’s driving is what drove it in 2018,” he said. “We had such a historic election then where unaffiliated voters participated in an election at a level that we’ve never seen before.”

In an extraordinary presidential election year complicated by a pandemic and protests for racial justice, Colorado voters say national issues are driving them to the polls, or the ballot box. Several statewide issues and races have national implications, too, such as proposed abortion restrictions and the national popular vote.

Democrats are leading the way in percentage of active registered Democratic voters who have turned in their ballots at 77.3%, followed by Republicans’ 71.5% and unaffiliated’s 62.1%, according to .

Although neither Jackson nor Benton are affiliated with a political party, their leanings differ — Jackson supports the reelection of Trump while Benton voted for Joe Biden. Colorado is expected to vote for Biden, but both parties are depending on unaffiliated voters to help their causes.

For Jackson, his ballot this year was about taking a stand for protecting the U.S. Constitution and biblical principles, and a newfound conviction that every vote matters. Although he denounced what he called “bloviation” from both parties, he said the Republican Party’s platform most aligns with his ideals, including on abortion. But Jackson also wanted to make sure to cast a vote against Colorado’s participation in the National Popular Vote Compact, citing once again the ideals of the Constitution.

Benton said he chose the candidate and not the party, particularly based on Biden’s plans for health care and renewable energy.

The increased polarization around Trump and the country’s political parties has also added a sense of urgency for longtime voters.

Aurora resident Tsehaye Tige views elections, particularly this year’s, through the lens of equality and human rights. She worries about another four years of a Trump presidency and the effects it could have on social justice.

“America’s come a long way,” Tige said. “I hope we’re going to succeed.”

Eric Redland, a registered Republican, brought his 89-year-old mother with him Thursday as he cast his vote in Lakewood. He said he’s tired of the liberal push behind various movements, which seem to be at “such a fever pitch.”

“Things aren’t as bad as they seem,” Redland said.

Democrat Bertha Adamson, however, worries not only about Trump but the groups that have been energized by his presidency, including those espousing bigoted ideals.

“There are a lot of things that are broken, and I’m really worried about the future of this democracy,” Adamson said, noting issues of voter suppression and racial justice.

In addition to federal-level politics, she also pointed to the importance of statewide ballot issues and down-ticket races. She said she’s been frustrated with groups trying to get their own priorities on the ballot, doing an end-run around those whom Coloradans have voted to lead them, whether it����ap the anti-abortion measure, the measure that would force votes on fees or the proposed income tax cut.

Proposition 115, the 22-week abortion ban, is one of the statewide issues that has received the most attention and money in Colorado’s election this year, and it����ap expected to be a close race. With the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett to the U.S. Supreme Court, Colorado’s statewide issue has become a focus on a national level.

The measure was so confusing to Lakewood voter Clinton Day, he said he had to read it multiple times. But to him, penalizing doctors for performing abortions is unconstitutional and “heinous.”

In addition to “getting the Republican Party out,” Jamie Covelli — a registered Democrat who doesn’t like the country’s two-party political system — said the abortion issue is among the top statewide issues to defeat.

“A woman should definitely have a choice over their own body,” Covelli said.

Christine Smidt, a registered Republican, felt more strongly about voting this year than she did four years ago. Although she said she understands a woman’s decision to have an abortion is very difficult, she ultimately voted in favor of the 22-week ban.

At a time when the country is so divided, filling out a ballot has taken on special importance and meaning for Smidt. People should use their right to vote as a way to have their voices heard, she said. But she also noticed another difference this year.

“I feel a lot more educated,” Smidt said. “I feel a lot more empowered.”

“There is no reason for either side to put another dime into this state. It����ap over,” said David Flaherty, a Republican pollster in Colorado who predicts “historic” losses for his party Nov. 3.

“It is undeniable. The train wreck and implosion of the president will bring a historic number of other Republican candidates down, and if you don’t believe that then you have your head in the sand,” he added.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee, which Gardner led two years ago, has spent $145,000 in Colorado in the first half of October, according to a Denver Post review of campaign finance filings through Wednesday. That is far less than in the other five states the NRSC has focused on: Iowa ($3.2 million), Michigan ($3.2 million), Montana ($2.2 million), Maine ($2.2 million) and Arizona ($1.7 million).

The Senate Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC with ties to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, has spent less in Colorado this month than in the 10 other states it has focused on, according to the review of campaign finance filings. When SLF it was spending $22.5 million to boost eight Republican Senate candidates, it set aside just $1 million of that for Colorado.

“Where the NRSC spends its money signals to everybody else what����ap in play, what isn’t in play, and where they think they can most effectively allocate their resources,” said Kyle Saunders, a professor of political science at Colorado State University, “and right now that just isn’t Colorado.”

The reasons for this are twofold, election observers say. First, Gardner has never led in a public poll and showed Democratic challenger John Hickenlooper leading by an average of 10 percentage points.

Second, the national map of Senate seats in play has expanded greatly, with Republicans gaining ground in Michigan and Democrats doing so in several Republican states, including Kansas, which hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. SLF announced Tuesday it is spending $3.3 million in Alaska — more than it has spent in Colorado all month — to protect a once-safe Republican incumbent there.

“It����ap unbelievable,” said Flaherty, the pollster. “Republicans are trying to defend South Carolina, Georgia, arguably Texas, Kansas, and that is 100% due to the president����ap failures as a candidate, on addressing COVID, and on a number of issues. That����ap why the Republicans really have their backs up against the wall.”

There was a time when national Republican groups spent a lot in Colorado just before an election. That was in June, before the Democratic primary Hickenlooper won. The NRSC spent several million dollars that month bashing Hickenlooper before he easily beat Andrew Romanoff. The next month, it began an $8.7 million spending spree here, making Colorado its second-highest priority.

But that has changed with the seasons. In September, the NRSC spent about $1 million in Colorado, considerably less than in the other states it has prioritized. In Arizona, where a Republican incumbent is trailing by similar margins as Gardner, it spent $3.3 million that month. In Maine, where Republicans have a better chance of re-electing an incumbent than in Colorado, it spent $4.5 million in September.

“The NRSC is proud of its significant investment in this race and our efforts to help Senator Gardner draw an important contrast with his scandal-plagued opponent,” said an NRSC spokeswoman, Joanna Rodriguez, when asked whether the Republican group has given up on Colorado.

Jack Pandol, a spokesman for SLF, said in a statement that his political action committee is holding Hickenlooper accountable through “aggressive advertising efforts” and called this article “false and ridiculous.”

Republican groups rightly point out that they have already injected a lot of money into Colorado this year — about $15 million total from the NRSC and SLF alone — and are scheduled to spend more in the weeks to come, even if it is far less than what they are spending elsewhere in the country.

“My perception is that Cory and his allies have together bought a huge amount of television time. At some point, does another $100,000 make any difference? I’m not sure it does,” said Dick Wadhams, a former Colorado Republican Party chair who has managed successful U.S. Senate campaigns.

“Cory’s problem is not that he does not have enough money in his account or that there’s not enough spending on that side. Cory’s biggest problem right now is the national political environment, and that has been driven by President Trump’s numbers against Joe Biden,” Wadhams said. “I’m not sure any money can offset that right now.”

Go back further, and the billionaire former New York City mayor has showered Colorado in cash for much of the last decade — long before he was a candidate.

Bloomberg and associated organizations have sent well in excess of $10 million to the state in the form of charitable contributions, local government grants and, most prominently, political donations that helped fuel Colorado’s debates on guns and education reforms, according to a Denver Post analysis of campaign finance records and media reports.

Bloomberg’s past activity bought him a reserve of goodwill in Colorado that he’s drawing on now as he builds the biggest state campaign staff of the major Democratic candidates. His spending in support of climate change measures and gun control efforts — which came to a head when the legislature approved several measures in 2013 — has been in sync with the views of most Democratic primary voters.

But that free-spending largesse, estimated at more than $6 million in political donations alone, also bought him enemies. Among them are teachers unions and advocates for traditional public schools, a large Democratic constituency that has voiced more skepticism about Bloomberg’s presidential bid.

“It’s kind of a mixed bag,” said Laura Chapin, a Denver political strategist who has been in the thick of Colorado’s gun control and abortion rights fights. “The stuff he did on the gun bills, I mean, bless him for doing it. I probably got paid some of it, and that����ap ultimately what it took to pass those bills and to get it done.”

Though Chapin supports U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren in the presidential race, she said Bloomberg’s past giving in support of issues important to her — including large donations to Planned Parenthood — would make him a palatable choice if he won the Democratic nomination. Defeating President Donald Trump is the overriding goal for her.

That view was reflected in interviews with several Colorado primary voters this week.

Some have taken surprising journeys. Patrick Geherin, a 40-year-old small business owner in Highlands Ranch, said he caucused for U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders in his first race in 2016, when Sanders beat Hillary Clinton handily in Colorado. He’s now considering Bloomberg, he said, in large part because he sees a candidate with an unlimited war chest who is already demonstrating he can take on Trump in his aggressive ads.

“Just seeing how the party is run, I just don’t think they’re playing the same game as Donald Trump and the GOP,” he said of the other contenders. “You almost have to go beyond the scope of the party, and Michael Bloomberg is bigger than life. He’s come down on the right side of issues that are important to me when he didn’t have to,” including by donating large sums.

Julie Flynn, 55, a self-employed Denver voter, also is considering Bloomberg. He’s not the ideal candidate for the self-described liberal Democrat, but Bloomberg’s strong media campaign and willingness to spend what it takes to win have impressed her so far.

“I only support him, for the most part, because he might beat Trump,” Flynn said. “That����ap all that matters.”

Focus on Super Tuesday states

Bloomberg has skipped the early-voting states, instead putting much of his focus on states such as Colorado with Super Tuesday primaries on March 3. And the latecomer to the race has surged in national polls lately.

The most notable result was a second-place finish — 19% to Sanders’ 31% — in released Tuesday, clinching him a spot on Wednesday’s Las Vegas debate stage with five other candidates. Bloomberg sits at third , behind Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden.

No presidential polls of the Democratic race in Colorado have been publicized since last August. Bloomberg’s state director, Ray Rivera, says the campaign’s polling — which he wouldn’t provide — suggests Colorado is mirroring the national trends.

Still, one longtime Colorado pollster sounded a note of caution on the campaign’s optimism.

“I don’t see any reason why Bernie would not at this time be considered a front-runner in our state,” said David Flaherty of Magellan Strategies, a GOP firm. “That����ap why I am still skeptical of a moderate like Bloomberg winning over the primary voter. But it����ap just a tough call,” given the lack of public polling.

The race is still fluid, political experts say, and Bloomberg is starting to face a new level of scrutiny as he gains in the polls and begins debating.

That has included recent reporting about Bloomberg’s people, who worked for him and that heavily targeted minorities. He apologized for the policy last fall.

That’s an issue that gives pause to Omar Montgomery, the leader of Aurora’s NAACP chapter who ran unsuccessfully for Aurora mayor last fall. He’s undecided in the Democratic race, seeing shortcomings with all candidates.

“In the case of Bloomberg, the reason why it����ap so personal, especially within the African-American community, is because we continue to see cases where African-Americans are being stopped by law enforcement, and it����ap going wrong for some reason,” Montgomery said. “While these cases are still active and alive, you think about stop-and-frisk — (Bloomberg) can apologize, but how many people are still incarcerated as a result of that type of legislation that was introduced to try to reduce crime?”

A candidacy unlike any other

Bloomberg has built a massive, self-funded 2020 campaign atop a political foundation that was formed during a decade of political advocacy and philanthropy in Colorado. And the state isn’t alone. The New York Times on Sunday that totaled $10 billion.

The result is a candidate — and candidacy — in modern American politics.

Rivera is among the Bloomberg campaign’s 60-plus Colorado-based staff members who were drawn to the candidate in part because of his past giving. Rivera, who also was Colorado state director for Barack Obama’s winning 2008 campaign, has worked as a senior adviser at Leadership for Educational Equity, a Bloomberg family-allied education reform nonprofit.

“I think Mike Bloomberg’s commitment to these issues that we’re seeing matter on the campaign, like gun safety and climate change and education, were actually a draw for me,” Rivera said.

State Rep. Tom Sullivan, a Centennial Democrat whose son was killed in the 2012 Aurora theater mass shooting, endorsed Bloomberg in December, after Bloomberg reached out and requested his support. They met for the first time that month, but Bloomberg’s reputation on the issue of guns had long preceded him.

“Since the day my son was murdered and I put myself out in front of the gun violence prevention issue, his organizations — from Mayors Against Illegal Guns to Everytown for Gun Safety — have been at the forefront of that fight,” Sullivan said Tuesday, adding: “Of the candidates who are out there, the No. 1 person who understands gun violence prevention is Michael Bloomberg.”

Bloomberg donated several million dollars to mostly Democratic state candidates and political action committees between 2010 and 2018, according to Colorado’s campaign finance database. Bloomberg Philanthropies donated another $1 million during that time, and Emma Bloomberg, the candidate’s oldest daughter, gave $19,300.

Bloomberg handed $2 million to Frontier Fairness PAC, a group that supported fellow education reform advocate Mike Johnston for governor in 2018. Another $350,000 went to a group that unsuccessfully tried to defend two Democratic state senators against recalls in 2013 over the controversial gun laws.

He spent $500,000 to promote Colorado Amendments Y and Z in 2018 — which passed, requiring independent commissions to redraw election lines — and more than $1 million on a failed school funding initiative in 2013.

Those totals do not include nationwide groups, such as Everytown for Gun Safety, that are funded by Bloomberg and have inserted themselves into Colorado policymaking and politics.

Other giving: charitable and grants

At the local level, Bloomberg sunk $75,000 into the 2013 Denver Public Schools board race to support education reform candidates. He gave $150,000 to support a failed Denver college scholarship sales tax initiative in 2015 (it won voter approval in 2018) and $200,000 to support Boulder’s successful soda tax ballot measure in 2016.

On the charitable side, Bloomberg Philanthropies donated $5.5 million to an apprenticeship initiative for Colorado high school students and $1 million to Fort Collins for energy efficiency upgrades in rental homes. Denver received $1.1 million to monitor air quality at schools, along with technical assistance worth $2 million to implement climate-related programs.

Wellington Webb, a former Denver mayor, has endorsed Bloomberg, though current Mayor Michael Hancock has yet not endorsed any of the remaining candidates.

What all the giving adds up to is a base of support for a billionaire New Yorker who otherwise would be little known in Colorado.

Sullivan declined to make any predictions about Super Tuesday — “that����ap up to you guys,” he told a reporter — but vowed to do what he could to get the word out about Bloomberg between now and then.

Then another. And another. No luck.

It����ap a blistering Saturday morning, the middle of the three-day Labor Day weekend, and the first-time candidate is looking for a sign of life in this suburban neighborhood on the west side of state Senate District 27 in Arapahoe County: a dog’s bark, a child’s laugh, the buzz of a power tool.

“We have to find someone doing yard work,” she jokes as she continues the search for voters to build her brand.

As a Republican running for office in Colorado, she is navigating difficult electoral terrain.

Colorado Republicans face a long road back to power. In 2018, the state’s unaffiliated voters — incensed by President Donald Trump — sided overwhelmingly with Democrats and gave the party total control of state government.

Candidates such as Staiert, who has captured the attention of party insiders, must appease a dedicated conservative base while advancing an agenda that can win over unaffiliated voters, the largest voting bloc in the state. Put another way, Republicans must find a way to build a new coalition as they face changing demographics, a Democratic state party that is better organized and an unpopular president of their own party — or risk becoming a minority party in perpetuity.

To better understand the challenges the GOP faces — and what hope may exist — The Denver Post talked with three Republicans who are taking different paths in the attempt to lead the party out of obscurity: Staiert, state Sen. Kevin Priola and Mesa County Commissioner Rose Pugliese.

They share a belief that the party must stay true to its values while finding a way to expand its base and win back unaffiliated voters.

“We need to bring them in,” Staiert said. “You have to change hearts and minds.”

The obstacles ahead

Nearly any Republican running in Colorado — and especially in the Denver area — faces two problems from the beginning: math and Trump.

Republicans have fewer voters than Democrats, and the number of unaffiliated voters is greater than those registered with either major party.

“We’re not going to have enough voters to compete,” said David Flaherty, a Colorado-based pollster who works with Republicans. “The 2018 election wasn’t an aberration. It was the front end of a trend.”

The trend is multifaceted, but the upshot for Republicans is straightforward: They’re losing voters across the state.

Colorado voters are getting younger, more diverse and more likely to be progressive.

They elected Gov. Jared Polis and other Democrats up and down the ballot, and in surveys since then appear happy with the direction of the state. While one poll found voters believe Democrats went too far during the legislative session, the recall efforts launched by Republicans across the state are unpopular. And Trump’s approval rating here is still underwater at just 39% approval vs. 57% disapproval — a gap that has widened dramatically since he took office, .

Despite the data, Colorado Republican Party officials insist 2020 is competitive: They aim to close Trump’s 4-point loss, keep U.S. Sen. Cory Gardner in Washington and take back control of at least one chamber of the state legislature, likely the Senate, which Democrats narrowly hold.

“The Colorado government operates more effectively when there is balance,” said U.S. Rep. Ken Buck, who also serves as Colorado’s Republican Party chairman.

The state party plans to use a new data system, bankrolled by a partnership between Trump’s re-election campaign and the national Republican Party, to target both swing voters and Republicans who are less likely to vote. And thanks to Trump’s fundraising prowess, money won’t be a problem, Buck said.

But the message might: Buck believes Republicans lost in 2018 because they were outspent and outmaneuvered. In Buck’s assessment, Trump had little to do with it. Trump will be the cornerstone of the Republican Party’s message in 2020 — that and attacking Democrats as too liberal, a tactic that failed in 2018.

“It����ap clear the Democrats have misled the voters,” he said. “The promise was that they were going to be a pro-business but socially moderate party. And they have been anything but pro-business. The contrast between what Donald Trump has done on the national level to awaken the economy and what Democrats in Colorado have done to stifle oil and gas development and raise taxes is going to be the contrast we focus on in 2020.”

Pounding the pavement

Kevin Priola doesn’t want to talk about Trump.

The Republican state senator from Henderson, known for winning tough races in Democrat-leaning districts, would much rather talk with voters about how he has helped solve problems in Adams County and around the state.

First elected to the state House in 2008, Priola has developed a reputation for knowing his district better than nearly any other legislator knows theirs and putting his name on as many bills as possible.

Just this year, he co-sponsored 44 bills on topics ranging from opioids to electric cars to education. Working on so much policy allows him to have robust conversations with voters when he asks them for support.

“I’m going to be myself and campaign like I always have and talk to as many people as I can,” Priola said.

He’s a pro-life Republican who is also pro-electric car. Clean energy, he says, is fundamentally conservative: It’s efficient, less expensive and gives consumers more choices.

“You call it as you see it,” he said. And you hope “folks in your region, in your state or country, will say you made the right decision.”

Priola isn’t afraid to buck his party if he thinks a policy shift would be good for his district. Take his support for a bill that created Proposition CC, a question on November’s ballot that asks voters if the state can keep all the revenue it collects, rather than refund money that exceeds the constitutional cap set by the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights.

For many Republicans, TABOR is the one line you don’t cross. But Priola said his voters, especially in economically challenged portions of his district such as northern Aurora, have a right to vote on the issue.

The 2020 election will be Priola’s toughest election yet. In 2018, Democrats outpaced Republicans at the ballot box by 4 percentage points. That����ap in part because Republican turnout dropped by 3 percentage points compared to 2014, according to Magellan Strategies.

“The races I’ve won have been very difficult, where the numbers were not in my favor,” Priola said. “The only thing they can attribute winning to is my work ethic. I know what knocking 10,000 doors looks like — it����ap grueling. It takes March to October, six days a week.”

A rising star finds her issue

And yet, the 41-year-old rising star may be one of the only Republicans in the state so far to identify a grassroots issue with bipartisan appeal that the GOP can leverage in 2020.

Pugliese, a New York native who moved to the Western Slope in 2007, is one of the leaders of the effort to repeal the national popular vote law. Signed by Polis earlier this year, it would tie the state’s Electoral College votes to the presidential candidate who wins the most votes nationwide.

“I’ve never seen a movement like this,” the Mesa County commissioner said. “Even we were surprised.”

While efforts to recall lawmakers and Polis have failed, the effort to repeal the law set a record for the number of signatures collected to put something on the Colorado ballot. Organizers will be able to take those signatures and turn them into an army of supporters to overturn the law — and maybe voters for the Republicans who opposed the measure from the start.

Supporters of the interstate compact have promised to fight the ballot question bringing additional national attention to the state’s 2020 election.

Pugliese is a Trump supporter. But she knows that for her party to win, it has to adapt to the state’s changing electorate.

“I really think that we as Republicans need to message better toward unaffiliated voters — especially women voters,” she said. “I think there are efforts underway to really, truly understand the issues they care about the most and how we can show them that the Republican Party can be the answer to issues they’re facing.”

However, rather than distance the party from Trump, Pugliese believes Republicans need to better communicate ways the Trump administration has benefited the state, such as increasing federal transportation funding.

“You’re going to see an engagement by Coloradans in the 2020 election like we’ve never seen. From a Republican perspective, we’re working very hard to message that we’re the right party for them,” she said. “We understand this election is so important for the future of our party.”

A fresh face with deep experience

Back in Centennial, Suzanne Staiert����ap luck changes. A few folks start to answer their doors.

She has a soft pitch: She’s running for state Senate, but before that, there’s a municipal election coming up and she hopes the voters at the door will vote for the candidate she has endorsed.

“I’ll be back next fall to ask for your support,” she smiles.

Among the handful of voters Staiert meets on this Saturday morning, two are Republican, two are Democrats and another is unaffiliated. But party isn’t everything, these voters tell The Denver Post.

That����ap good news for Staiert, a mother of three. While the south suburban Senate district has been reliably Republican, the party’s edge narrowed by about 10 percentage points between 2014 and 2018, according to Magellan Strategies.

Staiert, a former deputy secretary of state, is aware just how close the margin could be in 2020. So, like Priola, she hopes to keep the race focused on local issues, namely kids. She wants to improve education and keep kids safe. Her district has suffered too many teen suicides, she says.

While Staiert is a first-time candidate, she plans to emphasize her years as a bureaucrat to prove she can work in a bipartisan fashion.

“Unaffiliated voters want to see government work,” she says. “I’d like to help lift us all up. I’m not looking to throw mud.”

“You are not doing yourself, or Coloradans, any favors by staying in this race any longer,” Katina Harrison to a photo Hickenlooper posted on Twitter announcing he had landed in New Hampshire, home of the nation’s first Democratic primary. “Please do what you should have done from the jump & run for Senate.”

https://twitter.com/khoyleharrison/status/1151120307853201410

National political observers believe Democrats have one of their best chances to regain partisan control of the Senate in 2020. All eyes are on Colorado — a swing state where unaffiliated voters have aligned in recent elections more with the political left — as one of a handful of states that will determine whether Republicans keep their edge in the upper legislative chamber.

While there is no shortage of Democrats running for the Senate nomination here, party leaders, consultants and rank-and-file voters alike are whispering out loud their concerns that there isn’t yet a candidate who can match Republican incumbent Cory Gardner’s name recognition, fundraising prowess and charisma on the campaign trail.

Hickenlooper could change that if he shifted his attention closer to home, local and national political experts said.

“I want Cory Gardner gone,” Harrison, a Ken Caryl Democrat said Wednesday in an interview with The Denver Post. “And I think Governor Hickenlooper has the name recognition to get that done.”

Rejecting the calls

Right now, Colorado’s popular former two-term governor is one of two dozen Democrats running for the party’s presidential nomination. Since he launched his campaign in March, the former brewpub owner has failed to capture the imagination of his party’s national base.

Earlier this month, several members of Hickenlooper’s top staff left after they suggested a Senate run. News of a dismal fundraising quarter followed. And while the businessman hopes to reboot his campaign and launch a comeback focused on early nominating states, his trajectory to the White House is uncertain more than ever.

Hickenlooper repeatedly has quelled the calls — — for him to run for Senate. His answer to the question has evolved from a waffling “maybe” to a decidedly “no thanks.” More evidence that he’s not interested in a run surfaced this week: His wife, Robin Hickenlooper, donated to a different candidate who’s already in the race.

Hickenlooper is one of several high-profile Democrats who has rejected the idea of running for Senate. Included in that club are fellow presidential primary contenders Beto O’Rourke, a former Texas congressman, and Montana Gov. Steve Bullock. Stacey Abrams, who narrowly lost her Georgia gubernatorial bid, also has decided not to run for Senate.

However, political observers suggest Hickenlooper could still get in the race if he had a change of heart. The former Denver mayor, who expressed interest in a Senate appointment just a decade ago, wouldn’t be the first politician to jump from one race to another.

“One of the things his campaign has demonstrated is that he’s not going to move into the top tier of presidential candidates,” said Democratic consultant Curtis Hubbard. “But he still has a lot to offer. One of the best things John can do for his party, Colorado, the country is to take on one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the country and make sure Cory Gardner is a one-term senator.”

Even as the requests for Hickenlooper to get into the race persist, there would no anointment. Hickenlooper would have to fight for the nomination. Just as his political positions and governing style make him an ideal candidate for a general election, the state’s base in charge of selecting a nominee may look to someone more progressive.

“Anybody who has been watching Colorado elections for the past few years can see Democrats have moved further to the left,” said Michal Rosenoer, executive director of Emerge Colorado, a nonprofit that trains Democratic women to run for office. “Progressive Democrats are the ones who are winning both locally and statewide. Any Democrat who thinks winning a statewide election by running to the middle doesn’t understand the game they’re playing in anymore.”

A crowded field

At the moment, 10 Democrats are running for the Senate nomination. Leading the pack are former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, former state senator and gubernatorial candidate Mike Johnston and former Obama ambassador Dan Baer.

Romanoff has embraced at least two major progressive policies du jour: Medicare for all, which would create government-run health care, and the so-called Green New Deal. While Johnston ran a fairly progressive campaign for governor, he’s yet to strike too far to the left during this campaign. And Baer has yet to take any substantial policy positions.

Each has put up impressive early fundraising numbers and collected a battery of endorsements, but none of the three has won statewide office before. In fact, Romanoff lost his primary challenge to U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet in 2010. And Johnston came in third in the 2018 Democratic gubernatorial primary.

It����ap true that Gardner is vulnerable — a recent survey found only 40% of Coloradans have a favorable opinion of the junior senator. But longtime political observers have warned not to dismiss the Yuma Republican. Given the outcome of Colorado’s Senate contest will play a critical role in deciding partisan control of the upper chamber, Gardner is expected to have nearly unlimited financial resources.

That����ap one more reason Democratic loyalists want the most formidable candidate.

“Hickenlooper is their strongest potential candidate for a general election,” said David Flaherty, a Colorado Republican pollster. “He’s run and won before. People know his style. His brand is helping all Coloradans and not running negative.”

If he were to advance out of a primary, there’s one more problem. Hickenlooper repeatedly said he didn’t want the job and at one point even , “I’m not cut out to be a senator.”

“You don’t have to give hostage to history,” Jillson said, adding that Hickenlooper could do more damage to his brand if he hangs on too much longer. “Part of being a political leader is understanding the flow of events. You do have a history and reputation. Don’t ruin that.”

Terry Sullivan, who ran Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign, rejected the premise that Hickenlooper’s situation is akin to Rubio’s, pointing out that Rubio dropped out of the race well after most states had voted during the primary.

Sullivan added it was a fool’s errand to convince a politician to run for an office they aren’t interested in.

“Hickenlooper should run for the office he wants to serve, not the office people on Twitter are pushing him to,” he said.

“This president can do no wrong,” Republican pollster David Flaherty said, characterizing the results of ‘ recent poll of the state’s GOP faithful. “The Republican Party is his, 100 percent wrapped up in a box.”

Or nearly so. When it comes to Trump’s immigration focus, 88 percent said they favor building a wall along the U.S. border with Mexico — a Trump campaign pledge — and 81 percent said they supported Trump’s decision to shut down the federal government over the issue.

“One thing that is abundantly clear and validated is that the White House (political) strategy of shutting down the government over the wall — these numbers can justify that,” Flaherty said, in terms of shoring up Trump’s base.

The phone poll, conducted by the Louisville-based polling firm in late January and early February — just after the end of the historic 35-day federal government shutdown — found that immigration was the top concern among the 622 registered Republicans surveyed.

Forty-four percent reported immigration as the top priority they want to see addressed by new Gov. Jared Polis, a Democrat, and the state legislature, also controlled by Democrats. Controlling government spending was next, at 11 percent, and investing in roads and transportation came in third, at 10 percent.

The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.93 percentage points.

Potential trouble ahead for GOP in Colorado?

Flaherty, in past polling, has raised the alarm about Republicans’ electoral prospects in Colorado in 2020, based on unaffiliated voters’ broad support for state Democratic candidates last fall, the GOP’s disadvantage in voter registration and Trump’s unpopularity among voters overall.

Another firm’s recent poll reported Trump’s favorability at 39 percent among all active Colorado voters, and a majority blamed him for the shutdown while opposing the border wall idea.

Flaherty said his new poll of Republicans deepens his concerns, especially as 61 percent said they would prefer that the party’s candidates be uncompromising conservatives. A third said they prefer moderate candidates who could reach across the aisle.

“That tells you where the party is,” Flaherty said. “(Republicans) want to fight. They don’t think now is the time whatsoever to have a more go-along/get-along representation. … It is not a strategy to win a general election in Colorado in 2020.”

Among all Republicans surveyed, Trump’s approval rate was at 90 percent, with just 17 percent saying they would prefer to see another Republican nominated for president in 2020.

Responses to open-ended questions indicated that many of those polled like Trump’s focus on immigration, believe he is improving the economy and think he cares about all Americans, while many credit him for not acting like a typical politician.

Red-flag bill and full-day kindergarten

Magellan’s poll of Republicans found wide-ranging opinions on two state issues that are expected to be considered by the legislature:

• 60 percent support a “red-flag” law that would give judges the authority to order the temporary seizure of guns from people considered a significant risk to themselves or others. One-third opposed the idea, with 7 percent undecided.
• 62 percent oppose state funding for full-day kindergarten, while 34 percent said they would support the idea, regardless of the cost; 4 percent were undecided. The issue is a key part of Polis’ agenda.

And he’s not alone.

Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina is reviving his proposal for an immigration deal as part of talks to reopen the government. Centrist Sen. Susan Collins, who did not support Trump in 2016, faces a delicate balancing. In Arizona, Sen. Martha McSally has to consider her proximity to Trump as she runs to keep the seat she was appointed to after having lost to a Democrat in November.

As Republican senators set out to run for re-election in states where views on Trump are mixed, they’re trying to figure out how closely to align themselves with Trump.

“I made it clear when I ran for Senate that, when my party’s wrong, I’m going to say it,” Gardner said in an interview.

Gardner is one of two Republican senators up for re-election in states won by Democrat Hillary Clinton in the last presidential election; Collins is the other.

Democrats will be on offense in 2020, on much easier terrain with a wider map of incumbent Republicans at risk. Winning the Senate majority will require a net gain of at least three seats — four if Republicans hold the White House.

Democrats are expected to target Tillis and McSally, representing states where demographics are shifting against Republicans and where Democrats recently won statewide elections. Democrats also hope to field a strong candidate against Sen. David Purdue in Georgia, which has been trending their way, and are watching Kansas, where Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has been mentioned as a possible contender for a seat opening up due to a retirement.

Mike Noble, a Republican pollster in Arizona, said the 2020 election in Arizona probably will be a repeat of what McSally just encountered in 2018. She hewed close to Trump to survive a GOP primary but was rejected by voters in the general election.

“This is just a replication of the situation she was put in during the campaign,” Noble said.

Republicans now hold a 53-47 edge in the Senate.

While Republicans will try to protect their incumbents, they also will look to take on Democratic senators on the ballot in states won by Trump. They include Sen. Gary Peters in Michigan, though Democrats won a Senate race in the state handily in November, and Sen. Doug Jones in Alabama.

Strategists say it����ap much too early to assess how shutdown politics or other developments this early in the campaign cycle will influence the 2020 Senate map, if at all.

Carl Forti, the political director at Senate Leadership Fund, an influential outside group aligned with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said the race for the White House between Trump and the wide-open field of Democratic contenders will almost certainly overpower the congressional contests.

“The presidential race drives the messaging,” Forti said. “It’ll be a struggle down ballot to be heard.”

Some Republicans seem certain to position themselves closer to Trump as they see the political power he brings to their home states.

McConnell, who was initially cool to Trump’s candidacy, has since embraced him, particularly on the shutdown strategy.

In daily speeches in the Senate, McConnell is backing up Trump. Some voters seem pleased with the turn of events.

“Up until this year I wasn’t really too fond of Sen. McConnell,” said 76-year-old Sandy Furjanic, who lives in Princeton, Kentucky. But this year, she says McConnell has shown he is “supporting the president, unlike some other Republicans I know.”

In Maine, Collins’ brand of centrist politics is being put to the test. She is the last Senate Republican in New England, but voters are known for splitting their tickets and independents comprise the largest voting bloc. Democrats are eager to take her on. But no big-name Democratic candidates have stepped forward to challenge her, despite early rumblings about former U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice jumping in the race.

Yet it����ap Gardner, a skilled politician and fundraiser, who is widely considered the most vulnerable Senate Republican. Clinton won his state by 5 percentage points in 2016, and Colorado took an even sharper turn to the left on 2018, when Democrats won every statewide contest and captured the governor’s mansion by 11 percentage points.

Colorado Democrats have criticized Gardner as being too close to Trump. The senator voted for the president����ap two Supreme Court nominees, the GOP tax cut and unsuccessful effort to repeal much of President Obama’s health care law. He also led the arm of the GOP overseeing Senate races and helped the party expand its majority by two in November before stepping down weeks later.

“The vitriol against Donald Trump among the median voter who’s going to decide this election is so strong,” said David Flaherty, a GOP pollster in Colorado. “It needs to be really strong from Cory about why he’s his own man and not just a rubber stamp on Donald Trump’s policies.”

This year, Gardner was among the first Republicans to quickly call on the president to reopen the government, without the money Trump is demanding for the border wall with Mexico, and took the message directly to the president during a recent meeting with Senate Republicans.

That stance illustrates how Gardner is squeezed in Colorado, where Trump still has an avid following. Anil Mathai, chairman of the Republican party in suburban Adams County, said on a local radio show that Gardner’s stance on the shutdown was “ludicrous.”

David Pourshoushtari, a spokesman for Colorado’s Democratic Party, said Gardner is “trying to have it both ways, and I think Colorado voters are going to see straight through that.”

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Beam reported from Lexington, Kentucky, and Sharp from Portland, Maine. AP Congressional Correspondent Lisa Mascaro in Washington contributed to this report.

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