Take a peek at any sportsbook, and the Broncos’ over-under for victories floats around 9.5 games, which would leave them trailing the Los Angeles Chargers (understandable) and Kansas City Chiefs (unbelievable).

The lack of confidence in the Broncos to repeat their success traces back to Bo Nix.

He is compromised after multiple ankle surgeries.

He is a slow starter in games — six touchdowns, six interceptions in the first quarter.

He is a slow starter in seasons — 4-4 record in September, compared to 20-6 in every other month.

He is not elite against zone defenses — ranking 33rd among 45 quarterback qualifiers in success rate, per Sumersports.com.

The Broncos are about to fall from grace from a thud, if you believe wise guys and critics, and Nix does not give a (bleep).

Among the reasons that he can lead the Broncos to a Super Bowl, place his mentality at the top of the list.

“He does not care what people think. That is a superpower in this league. And he has it,” veteran right tackle Mike McGlinchey said. “It gives him the ability to go out there and play free, play loose. He cherishes it. On top of the maturity and knowledge he has gained over the last two years, he is made of the right stuff. That’s why I believe he’s the guy.”

The Broncos are five weeks from beginning one of the most scrutinized training camps in franchise history, and they appear ready because their quarterback will be.

Nix understands injuries are inevitable, but he has twice recovered from ankle surgeries in high school and college and played better. He is confident he will do so again.

There is no limp, no change in his throwing mechanics, no reason to think he will be anything but 100 percent when Denver travels to Kansas City for the season opener. When I asked him if he had concerns about his mobility, he said he was concerned he might run too much.

Nix is not shying from goals associated with franchise quarterbacks — win a Super Bowl, win MVP. If he did not think that way, why bother paying him $60 million a year after this season?

It is not a slam dunk that the Broncos repeat as AFC West champs. And it is even less likely that they secure the No. 1 seed with an opening schedule that features a six-pack nastier than Milwaukee’s Best.

But viewing Nix as a reason for regression? That is laughable.

He finished last season with 30 total touchdowns — rushing and passing — ranking ninth, ahead of Justin Herbert (28) and Patrick Mahomes (27)

He ranked seventh in 2024 with 34, including a receiving score, placing him above Jalen Hurts (32) and Jayden Daniels (31).

And no quarterback was better in the clutch than Nix last year.

He did this without a dynamic weapon. In his third year, we can finally get a better grip on his ceiling with the addition of Jaylen Waddle.

No longer will third-down calls be: “Hey, Courtland, get open.” Waddle will pair with Sutton, forcing teams to make tough decisions in man coverage — where Nix excels.

Conclusions should never be drawn in June without pads on. But it is obvious why the Broncos added Waddle.

He stops, starts, and changes directions seamlessly in traffic. Imagine Frogger as a receiver.

“There’s an element of explosiveness that I think as an offense we’ve lacked for a couple years,” Nix admitted.

While Waddle will make Nix better, the onus is on Davis Webb to help him reach his potential.

Webb will call plays through the lens of a former NFL quarterback. He will simplify the verbiage to give Nix more time at the line of scrimmage. As in years past, the Broncos will use a variety of tempos. Webb, however, provides an opportunity to throttle up and down on the same possession.

It is hard to imagine Webb not getting Nix into a rhythm more quickly in first drives, first quarters and first halves.

The Broncos know they are not going to win 11 one-score games again, a feat that tied an NFL record. They were 1-6 in 2024. So that means we should expect them to go 6-6 in 2026.

Nix can help them avoid this scenario by playing fewer close games. Starting on Oct. 25 at Arizona, the Broncos should be favored in eight straight.

This is where Nix can flex his muscles, not lose his fingernails over worst-case scenarios — ankle issues, failing to click with Waddle and Webb experiencing growing pains.

If Nix regresses, it will be on him. But serious question: When has he ever given us a reason not to trust him?

He has clumsy moments — the Broncos had the third most punts last season. Yet, he boasts 10 career game-winning drives. Wait, what was the score in the fourth quarter against Buffalo? Make it 11.

He relishes competition.

“A coach told me a long time ago that you have to be a little screwed up to be good at this and we all are in some shape and form. You look at Bo in the huddle, you see that fire in his eyes and you know this guy has got something special to him,” McGlinchey said. “You could feel it the first time he stepped on the field as a rookie. And all it has done is grow. It’s not even the comebacks that we all know about. It is just the way he has developed and trusts everyone around him.”

For the third straight season, the Broncos will be overlooked. Critics see imposters.

If the expectations of chasing a championship were too much, if the pressure was too suffocating, I would be the first to call them out.

But doubt is not a problem. With Sean Payton, it is a motivation.

Nix is not a question, his ankle be damned. He is the solution.

Sean Keeler: That it’s OK to keep the floor for 2026 a Mile High. Just don’t stick the ceiling in the mesosphere. I‘ll stand by 11-6, but I’d be stunned if they came storming out of the gates to get there. The NFL loves competitive socialism, which is why it’s so hard to be consistently great or to consistently stink it up the way, say, the Browns have for decades. Since the AFL-NFL merger of 1970, only three teams have won 14 or more games in consecutive NFL seasons: Chicago in ’85 and ’86; San Francisco in ”89 and ’90 and New England in ’03 and ’04. There’s a difference between parity and punishment. This fight card sure feels like the latter.

Renck: A lot of people are saying ����apountry should relax. That this gauntlet is the price of returning to relevance. Win a division. Play the best teams the following season. Some of us remember covering great Broncos teams year after year. The schedule is not the issue. It is the order of the games. The Broncos’ opening stretch seems punitive. You are telling me the league could not have mixed in an Arizona, Las Vegas or Miami early? They did that for the Chargers and Chiefs. It allows a team time to gain traction. The Broncos must run on rocket fuel out of the starting block or risk going up in smoke. I am predicting the Broncos go 3-3 to open, but not with much conviction.

Keeler: I want to argue for 4-2, but I’m not sure I can with a straight face. Because that means either a.) stealing a road game against Jim Harbaugh and a probably healthy Justin Herbert, or b.) sweeping the Rams and Seahawks at home. It’s almost as if the league went to extra lengths to throw a wrench into Payton’s favorite (and most successful) month, historically — ����apountry’s October features trips to San Francisco (Oct. 4) and to the Chargers (Oct. 11) as a back-breaking back-to-back, followed by the defending Super Bowl champs (Seattle) coming to Denver on a short week. A 2-1 record in September, even with Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence and Matthew Stafford on the fight card, is doable. But if you want to get to November with a winning record, it might become mandatory.

Renck: If Bo Nix is healthy, if Davis Webb is still calling plays, the Broncos will take off in October. Yes, even with games at San Francisco, at Chargers and home against the Seahawks and Cardinals. While Payton owns a 4-7 record in September with the Broncos, he loves October more than pumpkins. He boasts a 10-3 record for Denver in the second month. That means the Broncos will win two of three games against the 49ers, Chargers and Seahawks before clobbering the Cardinals. It’s all about surviving the start, getting fat on snacks before finishing with the Bills, Patriots and Chargers. The Broncos will be a better team with a worse record, finishing 11-6, a mark that could mean a tiebreaker determines the AFC West champ.

Keeler: Unless you’re Pete Carroll, precedent with NFL head coaches matters. Even if you don’t like Payton’s play-calling, you have to like the resume. Sunshine Sean won 13 or more games in a season four other times as the boss of the Saints. In the following campaign, his teams won 13 games again once, 12 games once, and 11 games twice. Average victory total? 11.75. If you’re setting the over/under at 10.5 wins, give me the over, my friend. Just don’t give me the over by much.

And if Thursday night on social media was any indication, ����apountry has indigestion.

At age 62 and a first-time grandpa, Sean Payton operates on the premise that everything that demands attention does not deserve attention. But even he must take notice of the Broncos’ buzzsaw of an opening schedule.

Who did Payton (bleep) off in the league office now?

In the first six weeks, the Broncos host five playoff teams from a year ago. The one that did not qualify? The Kansas City Chiefs. And Denver gets them on the road on Monday night to open the season.

How is that for a punch in the eyeballs?

In Payton’s first three seasons, the Broncos never faced more than two previous postseason qualifiers in the first six weeks, and played six total. They went 2-4 in those games.

Payton might as well puff on a Sherlock Holmes pipe, given how much he loves all the smoke. But this is a bit much.

It looks like the NFL put out a fraud alert on the Broncos, and wants to find out if 2025 really happened. You know the 14 wins, the AFC’s No. 1 seed, the ending of the Chiefs’ nine-year stranglehold on the division?

It is unfair. And it is perfect.

Payton never has feelings of inadequacy or insecurity. Give him a test, make him an underdog and he rallies players around the cause like Mel Gibson in “Braveheart.”

Remember the Chiefs’ game last season without J.K. Dobbins and Patrick Surtain? Or the smothering win at Tampa Bay in 2024 after an 0-2 start?

The Broncos’ first goal is to win the AFC West. That guarantees a home playoff game. Staying tethered early represents the biggest challenge to a second straight division crown, along with surviving the final three weeks against the Bills, Patriots and Chargers.

There is a strong chance that the Broncos will be better and win fewer games. You probably know this if you have gone through the schedule game by game and realized they face 10 playoff teams in 2025.

Thank goodness for the Jets, who have the league’s longest playoff drought, the Cardinals, who hired Nathaniel Hackett to run their offense, and the Dolphins, whose roster suggests they are not even trying.

By the morning of Oct. 16, we will know whether the Broncos are legit. That is the day after facing the defending champion Seattle Seahawks at home on Thursday night, one of five standalone games. If they navigate at the Chiefs, Jaguars, Rams, at the 49ers, at the Chargers and Seattle with a 3-3 record or better, they will be poised to reach the Super Bowl.

Anything less will be alarming and likely feature questions about Payton’s next contract and quarterback Bo Nix’s health.

So, let’s borrow Nathan MacKinnon’s goggles, flippers and snorkel and dive in:

Week 1 at Chiefs

San Jose Jazz Summer Fest annoyance index on scale 1-10: 7. The Broncos would have preferred this game at home. The Chiefs are 8-2 in their last 10 openers at Arrowhead Stadium, and it likely marks the return of Patrick Mahomes. But the future Hall of Famer is coming off ACL surgery, might lack mobility, and has a receiving corps that frightens nobody. Steal this game, and the Broncos will have a card up their sleeve all season.

Week 2 vs. Jaguars

Jazz Fest annoyance index: 6. The “smaller market” Jaguars delivered a big punch to the Broncos’ gut last season, snapping their 12-game home winning streak. Denver fears no one. But facing the Jaguars after the Chiefs and before the Rams is nasty business. Trevor Lawrence is willing to take sacks to make big plays. This needs to be the game the Broncos show how takeaways have become a top priority.

Week 3 vs Rams

Jazz Fest annoyance index: 3. Sean McVay is who Sean Payton used to be. The wunderkind continues pursuing a second Super Bowl title. Payton, who is close friends with the Rams coach, was 46 when he won his ring. He hasn’t been back since. McVay claimed his at age 36. He boasts the reigning MVP in Matthew Stafford and weapons that conjure images of the Broncos with Peyton Manning. This could be the day where we find out if Davis Webb is really calling plays or the offensive coordinator in name only.

Week 4 at San Francisco

Jazz Fest annoyance index: 8. The music has died. But the Rock ‘n’ Roll marathon takes over the streets, including a 5K and KIDS ROCK event on Saturday. If vice president of operations Chip Conway, a tireless worker in a thankless job, books the wrong hotel, he will likely be forced to run back to Denver. The good news? The 49ers are aging like Nick Nolte, making this a very winnable game.

Week 5 at Los Angeles Chargers

Jazz Fest annoyance ranking: 4. Forget the glitz. Los Angeles is a business trip. Jim Harbaugh has given the Chargers a jolt, but this isn’t exactly like playing Pete Carroll’s 2004 USC Trojans at the Coliseum. The problem with the Chargers in this spot is the physical games leading up to it. The Chargers want a rock fight. The Broncos’ ability to pull off the upset will depend on limiting penalties and multiple big strikes from Justin Herbert, who figures to improve under former Smoky Hill grad Mike McDaniels.

Week 6 vs. Seattle Seahawks

Jazz Fest annoyance index: 6. By my math, the Broncos are facing the league’s best two teams back-to-back. It was for games like these that Denver acquired Jaylen Waddle. You have to be able to keep up with the Rams, and deliver a few gash plays through the air (looking at you Waddle) and on the ground (hello, J.K. Dobbins) to stiff arm the Seahawks’ pass rush.

It definitely feels like something is up with this schedule set up. It is tilted with heavyweight matchups. And September has not been their friend. Payton is 4-7 in the first month as the Broncos coach.

If they can hold serve through mid-October, the next eight weeks offer a runway for a long winning streak or a 6-2 stretch.

The schedule matters more to teams with poor coaches and bad quarterbacks. That is no longer the case with the Broncos. They are equipped to get in the ring or an octagon.

But even for those who believe orange sunsets are an ode to the Broncos must acknowledge the challenge ahead. Those opening six games are straight out of the SEC. In all, they play six teams projected to win 10 games.

The Broncos will return to the playoffs. Mother Nature helped knock them out last year. The challenge this season will be avoiding a haymaker from September and October.

They provide context. A frame of reference.

After watching the Broncos essentially finish their offseason Saturday with the final day of the draft, it is clear they have identified a new equation to win.

Forget addition by subtraction, they have adopted addition by a little something, something. As in a very little.

When the Broncos line up for their season opener, there is a realistic chance they will feature only two new starters: receiver Jaylen Waddle and defensive end Sai’vion Jones or Tyler Onyedim.

Of the 53 active players in the AFC Championship Game, roughly 45 will be the same.

There is consistency. And there is monotony.

Last offseason the Broncos were a blast. They talked about becoming a contender and signed safety Talanoa Hufanga, running back J.K. Dobbins, tight end Evan Engram and linebacker Dre Greenlaw. Two of the four hit, Engram had a mild impact and Greenlaw was a bust. This spring, they talked about winning a Super Bowl, and traded for Waddle.

It has not been as fun. Or interesting.

It has been boring.

Boring can be good. keeps it simple. Almost never changes its menu. And business is booming.

Boring can also be dangerous.

The Broncos were the last team to add an external free agent this offseason, signing special teams safety Tycen Anderson (you receive a door prize if you remembered his name). The Broncos were the last team to make a pick in this year’s draft, selecting Onyedim.

NFL Draft 2026 tracker: Picks, instant reaction and more live coverage

They have preached patience. They will not disrupt the locker room culture. They are comfortable with stability.

But it is fair to wonder if the Broncos did enough to win a Super Bowl.

After the heart-in-a-blender loss to the Patriots, an outcome that would have been different had Bo Nix played, ����apountry wanted a tight end. Denver brought back Adam Trautman, a coach on the field, whom coach Sean Payton loves for his blocking.

The fans wanted a running back. The Broncos kept Dobbins, giving him a $5 million raise for playing in 10 games.

The fans wanted a playmaking linebacker known for his coverage skills. The Broncos re-signed Alex Singleton and Justin Strnad.

It is impossible not to like these players. They were part of a group that made the Broncos relevant, put them in the national conversation, turned them into AFC's top seed.

But Denver, if we are being honest, had luck on its side. The Broncos went 12-3 in one-score games. If they only play seven such contests next season, history suggests they are likely to go 3-4 or 2-5. They were redlining without an airbag.

No one is saying they will become Evel Knievel, bones sticking out of the skin from crash landings. But there is almost no chance they repeat last season's success in the clutch.

Again, did the Broncos do enough?

Based on the conservative offseason, it seems like they are satisfied with winning the division and not prepared to take a risk with an extra check to win the whole (darn) thing.

They put the brakes on offers to running back Travis Etienne once he reached $12 million per season, feeling he was always going to New Orleans. They never made a big play for linebacker Devin Lloyd.

They made the decision to trust general manager George Paton's process, to believe in Payton's vision for players and his coaches to develop them. It has worked. On this, let me be clear.

The question now is whether a virtually static roster can win a championship?

The Broncos, like the Avs and Nuggets, are a victim of lofty expectations. The only thing left is for the Broncos to deliver a fourth Super Bowl parade.

That was a motivating factor in Payton taking the job. He was not interested in hanging up division championship gear in his closet. He has a chance to make history as the only coach to win a Super Bowl with two different teams.

That is now a realistic goal.

But in pursuing it, the Broncos operated in a vacuum this offseason, unbothered by other contenders or a brutal schedule.

They were not concerned with the Rams, who added cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, the Bills, who addressed their receiving corps, the Patriots, who are expected to acquire receiver A.J. Brown in June, and the 49ers, who are trying to squeeze another Super Bowl victory from Mike Evans.

And there is no denying the improvement within the division. The Chargers will always Charger, but they are a sneaky team with healthy offensive tackles and Mike McDaniel calling plays for Justin Herbert.

The Chiefs signed running back Kenneth Walker and used three picks in the top 40 to bulk up a defense that could not get off the field on third down last season. Though to be fair, any game Justin Fields starts sets back their recovery process.

And the Raiders hired coach Klint Kubiak, drafted quarterback Fernando Mendoza, and overhauled their roster in free agency.

Fun offseasons are not always smart ones. What happens in March and April does not guarantee playing in February.

What the Broncos did last season hit all the right notes. But were they wrong to stay so loyal, so conservative?

Maybe Waddle -- and perhaps critical snaps from running back Jonah Coleman -- will help Nix and the Broncos cross the finish line.

It feels like they needed one more big addition. Then, again, maybe it's nothing.

This is not the weekend for the Broncos’ front office to be sensible with its Walmart money. Oh, no. The 2026 NFL Draft is a free hit. An open goal. A chance to patch holes on a good roster by taking some chances.

Denver was an ankle away from the Super Bowl last season. A freak injury from waving high enough for everybody in Kansas to see.

Act like it.

Be bold.

Be brave.

Please don’t be an inside linebacker.

We’re wringing our hands about pick No. 62, of course, a second-round selection that, as of Monday, is the Broncos’ first — and maybe only — chance to make a draft weekend splash.

Six of the Broncos’ seven picks are slated to fall on Day 3 (rounds four-seven), and three of those six currently lie in the final round. History says Paton and Payton will move around some if they see someone specific they like. But a class this small needs to be about quality — not quantity. So as the weekend approaches, here are five things you’d hope general manager George Paton and coach Sean Payton keep in mind as they shop for depth:

1. If Vanderbilt tight end Eli Stowers is available at No. 62, or close, move Heaven and Earth to make him yours

Linebacker or tight end? Defensive lineman or slot weapon? You nuts? Did you watch the Commodores? Don’t overthink this. Stowers is a tight end who looks like a wide receiver (6-foot-3, 239 pounds), runs like a wide receiver (4.51 in the 40) and jumps like a wide receiver (45.5-inch vertical).

He’s a matchup nightmare, the kind of target who leaves linebackers eating his dust and safeties flailing to reach jump balls they can’t touch. Stowers the draft epitome of a “Joker,” the TE/WR/inside triangle hybrid that Payton spoke about so lustily in January 2025. He’s Evan Engram. Only younger. Sure, Stowers doesn’t grade out well as a blocker. Guess what? You’ve got plenty of “blocking” tight ends on hand already.

2. Grab a contributor Friday — save your projects for Saturday

Could you find a starting-caliber linebacker late in the second round, too? Sure. Assuming Texas Tech’s Jacob Rodriguez is still on the board, he’d make a perfect understudy for Alex Singleton, who’ll turn 33 in December. Or Justin Strnad, who turns 30 in August.

But with only seven picks, and a ton of contracts slated to end after the 2027 season, isn’t time of the essence? Shouldn’t you be saving the understudies for Saturday?

This is a back-filling draft, not the foundational one that 2024 turned out to be, thanks largely to Bo Nix. But winning now means getting guys who can play, and contribute, from the jump. Ideally, that means finding someone in Round 2 who could start for you in a pinch as soon as Week 1. Nail that, and the rest is gravy. Because if you don’t …

3. Don’t fall in love with BPA if that BPA has nowhere to play

See: Barron, Jahdae. Paton’s 2025 BPA with selection No. 20 a year ago. As in, “Best Player Available.” Or is it, Best Pick Again?

You can never have too much of a good thing in this league, given the volatility and injuries. Unless, of course, it’s nickel backs, especially when you’ve already developed an undrafted one (Ja’Quan McMillian) into one of the best in the AFC. At the time of Paton and Payton picked Barron, last spring’s first-round selection, folks didn’t whoop and holler. Barron, a speedster who raised Cain at the University of Texas, made folks sort of shrug and go, ‘Yeah, well, makes sense.’

The Broncos late in 2024 got badly exposed along the perimeter in the passing game — that Cleveland game on Monday Night Football was wild — while Pat Surtain II was out and a still-young Riley Moss was forced to cover more WR1s.

Fast forward to the fall of ’25, where Moss improved and cut down on his penalties. McMillian upped his game another level and rarely left the field on passing downs.

Before last spring’s draft, pundits and fans pleaded for the Broncos to add more help at running back, tight end and wide receiver. By and large, they’re making the same pleas in 2026 — which doesn’t exactly speak well for the early returns on Barron in the first round or for RJ Harvey in the second.

There’s time. But 2027, when so many of the contracts for this current core are slated to run out, gets closer by the day.

4. Remember Bo Nix — and Nix’s costs down the road

If someone offers you picks — even late ones — for the 2027, 2028 or 2029 drafts, you’d be wise to listen. Nix’s four-year rookie deal The Bo Show is slated for a $5.08-million cap hit this fall, and a $5.92-million hit in two seasons. Justin Herbert’s first post-rookie-contract extension had an average annual value of $52.5 million. Joe Burrow’s post-rookie extension featured an AAV of $55 million.

That raise is coming. More rookies will need to be coming, too.

5. Secure a RB you can trust in January

Here’s an idea. Actually, think of it as an exercise. At some point on Saturday, or before, look at the tailbacks most likely to be on the board after Round 2 or Round 3. Ask yourself, very simply, one question: Which one would I feel good about starting, at home, in late January, come rain, sleet or shine?

Because, presuming that J.K. Dobbins is going to be there is pure hubris. Or ignorance. Or both. Presume he’s not. Presume the rest of your options are still best used as pass-catchers in space (Harvey) or as special-teamers (Badie). Which of these prospects can pound the rock between the tackles 12-15 times per game against a salty defense? Which one could help grind me to a Super Bowl?

I’m partial to Nebraska’s Emmett Johnson, a workhorse for the Cornhuskers last year, a volume carrier with power who recorded just three fumbles over 550 touches as a collegian. A born closer. Johnson averaged 6.7 yards from scrimmage last November every time he saw the ball, scoring five times on 120 touches that month. Sounds like the perfect fit, on paper, for a franchise that won’t just be judged on how it finishes next season. But where.

Josh Bulla has known Stidham since elementary school in Stephensville, Texas, when a young Bulla first noticed the kid who was a foot taller than everyone else. From that point, Bulla said, Stidham always knew he was headed for some greater destiny. Milestones came and went: he played college football at Baylor and Auburn, where he was a two-year starter , and got drafted by the Patriots in the fourth round in 2019. The final goal — become an NFL starting quarterback — came again on the night of Jan. 18, 2026.

Just not like this, Stidham told Bulla.

He’d gotten his chances before. Two starts in 2022, when the Raiders benched Derek Carr. Two starts in 2023, when the Broncos benched Russell Wilson. Those were exciting. But Bo Nix breaking his ankle Saturday night, as Stidham told Bulla, was “gutting.”

“The first thing that came to mind,” Stidham said, as Bulla recalled, “was, ‘No.'”

“Like, this is Bo’s show.”

Over the past two years, Bo and Izzy Nix have become “like family” to Stidham and his wife, Kennedy, Bulla said. Nix’s second-year run ended shockingly after a divisional-round win over the Bills, and the emotions Stidham felt extend much deeper than his mentorship in Denver. In Stidham’s two years starting at Auburn, from 2017-18, .

It began as simple program ambassadorship, then-Auburn OC Chip Lindsay remembered. Stidham would talk to Nix and host him on visits. Eventually, though, Stidham started asking Lindsay how Nix did in his high school games. He knew that Nix was his successor, former Auburn wideout Ryan Davis recalled.

“Jarrett was basically, like, giving him the keys,” Davis said.

Seven years later, Nix is giving them back. — Nix’s first public statement since breaking his ankle — the Broncos’ starting QB offered a hat-tip, saying he “couldn’t be more confident in Jarrett.” Denver’s season now lies in the hands of Stidham, a career backup who has started four career games in six NFL seasons and hasn’t thrown a regular-season pass in two years.

Across this week’s preparation for the Patriots in Sunday’s AFC championship, Denver’s locker room has heaped praise on Stidham to anyone with a microphone. They have no other choice.

“He’s going to rip it,” head coach Sean Payton said Wednesday. “And that will be our approach.”

In Year 2 in Denver, Nix and Payton found synergy as the second-year quarterback praised Payton for letting him be his “authentic self.” These Broncos formed an identity around Nix, a fiery 25-year-old whose white-hot competitiveness fueled a season of second-half comebacks. They are now rallying around Stidham, a cool 29-year-old whose serenity masks his own fire.

Stidham has kept the same routine for three years in Denver, left tackle Garett Bolles said. He eats the same food. He drinks the same water. He hits the steam room at the same time. He listens to the same music, on a Turtlebox waterproof speaker that he affectionately refers to as “Mr. Turtle.”

Nothing has changed in this week of madness. Stidham is who he is because he knows who he is. That is comfort, as these Broncos head into a war.

“He got some swag,” Bolles said Thursday. “He got some swag to him. So, that fuels us all.”

…
In 2023, 6-foot-4 safety JL Skinner arrived in Denver as a raw sixth-round pick out of Boise State. He took plenty of flak from Stidham, who’d just signed as a free agent and who had no more experience in Denver than Skinner.

Stidham wanted Skinner to be better. And he let him know about it. The QB chirped at him in practice.

“JL, what are you doing? What are you doing?”

“I’m like, ‘Man, (expletive) this guy,'” Skinner said Thursday.

“And then in my head,I’m like, (expletive), he’s actually throwing that ball right over my head, too. I gotta do something about it.”

He was born with that. The now 6-foot-3 Stidham played offensive line in Pee Wee football in Weatherford, Texas, because he was tall. Future high school coach Joe Gillespie introduced him to former SMU quarterback Kelan Luker for some training in middle school. The first time Luker worked with Stidham, he walked out to a field, saw him throw a few balls, and noticed the kid never missed.

Stidham had never played quarterback before. To this day, Luker maintains he never really taught him anything over the course of a few years.

“I think what really happened – he was so talented, he could just watch what I did,” Luker said, “and he could imitate.”

In Denver, QB3-turned-QB2 Sam Ehlinger notes that Stidham’s ball “spins really pretty.” The RPMs came naturally. So did unassuming athleticism, a trait that most every teammate or coach notes about Stidham.  Underneath six years of backup life in the NFL is years of life as a five-star gem, the No. 1-ranked dual-threat quarterback in the class of 2015 (above Kyler Murray, Sam Bradford and Joe Burrow).

“He’s just one of those West Texas boys who grew up spinnin’ it,” said Jordan Palmer, a former NFL quarterback who’s long worked with Stidham and .

After two years at Auburn, Stidham arrived in New England in 2019. It was Tom Brady’s last year; the Patriots were treating Stidham as “the next guy,” as Davis said, a former Auburn receiver who spent six months in New England’s training camp in 2019. Stidham picked Brady’s brain, and Brady once left three of his custom hoodies as a gift in Stidham’s locker. But the Patriots brought in former MVP Cam Newton two weeks before training camp the next year in 2020, and drafted Mac Jones in the first round in 2021, and shipped Stidham to Las Vegas in 2022 without ever starting him in a game.

Old habits die hard, Bulla recalled. Stidham grew up as the guy. He never stopped believing he could be. After signing in Denver, he got a taste of it late in 2023, when the Broncos benched Wilson. He lost the starting job to rookie Nix in 2024. Bulla asked Stidham how he was feeling heading into training camp this past summer, wedged squarely behind a young franchise face.

“He’s like, ‘It����ap the NFL,'” Bulla said . “‘Everyone’s talented. Crazy things can happen. And I still have to act the way I always have, and that I want to be the starter.'”

…
In December 2017, Carson Wentz tore his ACL, and the 11-2 Philadelphia Eagles had to recalibrate around backup quarterback Nick Foles. Offensive coordinator Frank Reich set about watching the “Foles highlight reel,” as he dubbed it — cut-ups of every single Foles completion from five previous NFL seasons. He sat with Foles and had the quarterback walk him through some preferred concepts: a few post routes here, a deep ball there.

Outside the Xs and Os, though, Reich and the rest of the Eagles’ staff didn’t do much to try to control messaging to the team. They let Foles roam free as a personality. And Foles — whose confidence earned him a provocative — became legend across a Super Bowl run in the weeks to follow.

“If you’re trying to cover up what you perceive as some weakness, some leadership weakness of the backup quarterback, then you’re in trouble,” Reich said.

Reich, a former quarterback himself who once stepped in as a backup to Jim Kelly for multiple Buffalo Bills playoff runs in the 1990s, has taken an interest in Stidham’s particular situation in Denver. He’s watched clips of his interviews. He’s detected moxie.

“It seems like the kid’s a winner,” Reich said. “Like, he’s a winner. And everybody knows it.”

Emotion crested and fell in Denver in the span of a single hour after the Broncos’ 33-30 overtime win over Buffalo. Sean Payton went to a podium in street clothes, told reporters Nix was out for the season with a fractured ankle, and the Broncos’ locker room came away as stunned as the rest of the world. Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi found out from his son, driving home from the stadium. Receiver Courtland Sutton literally didn’t believe it was true.

Utter chaos has swirled around Stidham in the days since. The Copelands were deep in the woods of West Texas on a hunting trip, cracking open a few Coors Originals and playing cards, when they got the news he was starting. Friends have let Stidham know they’ll make it to Denver in any way possible for Sunday’s game. An entire fanbase has turned its social-media avatars to pictures of Stidham in a strange form of solidarity. This shot is “everything he’s ever dreamed for,” Bulla said.

Stidham has yet to flinch, in public or private.

“Is he getting sleep this week? I don’t know,” said Brian Hoyer, a longtime NFL backup who was with Stidham in New England in 2020 and 2021. “I talked to him (Tuesday). And either it hasn’t hit him yet and he doesn’t have any words, or he hid it really well.”

There is a “calmness” about Stidham, Payton said on Wednesday. There always has been. The most worked-up Bulla has ever seen Stidham — in a circumstance not involving family or football — was when Bulla pranked Stidham in high school by hotwiring his beat-up 1995 Chevy Silverado and hiding it in a different parking lot. On-field mistakes have always brought the same reaction, Palmer described: Aw, shucks, and move on.

These days, Stidham carries that “Mr. Turtle” speaker into the team shower on the daily, blasting an assortment of Kate Bush and Fleetwood Mac and country tunes. He has a rookie football card of cornerback Riley Moss pinned to the front of his locker, for some reason. He wore a full-body lion costume to the Broncos’ Halloween party in October.

“Every time I see him,” practice-squad receiver Elijah Moore said, “he’s playing music. I guess he’s just got the vibes on him. I love that.”

Stidham did not always present this way. Take it from Washington head coach Jedd Fisch, who coached New England’s quarterbacks in 2020.

“Really?” Fisch said, told the tale of Mr. Turtle. “He wasn’t like that. Yeah, I don’t remember. Maybe it����ap because we were in the middle of COVID … I would not have guessed that one.”

The years have brought Stidham’s self-awareness outward, as he’s moved into a comfortable stage of life. Stidham and wife, Kennedy, welcomed their third child in October. When he and Bulla catch up these days, they spend roughly two minutes talking football and the rest figuring out “what the hell” to do in fatherhood, as Bulla put it.

“I see a direct correlation,” Palmer said. “When people have their personal lives figured out and then get put into the spotlight on a big stage, I see that go better for the guys that have their lives figured out …. I would say Jarrett’s about as stable as it gets, for a guy his age.

“There’s no reason to change,” Palmer continued. “There’s no reason to do it different. So I’m sure that Jarrett is going into this weekend with a lot of confidence that – he is enough.”

…
Sean Payton, Skinner said, does not keep “bums” on his roster. Backups. Practice squad. Doesn’t matter.

Stidham was one of Payton’s first signings upon arriving in Denver in 2023, even as the Broncos already had Wilson. The organization made it a priority to bring Stidham back this past free agency, on a two-year deal worth $12 million. The money signals trust around the league. Moore — a 25-year-old receiver who’s now been on four NFL teams — said he’s heard of Stidham’s reputation in the past, before signing with the Broncos a month ago.

“Stiddy got signed back-to-back-to-back for a long time now,” Skinner said at his locker Thursday. “And nobody knows why, from the outside. But we know why, from the inside. Because that mother(expletive) can throw that goddamn rock.”

Payton believes Stidham’s inside the 32 best quarterbacks in the NFL. So does Patriots defensive play-caller Zak Kuhr, that Stidham “could be a starter for a number of teams.” Stidham’s arm talent and sneaky mobility aren’t in question: quietly, he ran for a combined 84 yards in two starts for the Raiders in 2022.

Sean Payton called Jarrett Stidham a "real good foot athlete" today. Of note: Stidham ran for a combined 84 yards in the first two starts of his career with Las Vegas in '22.

Here's a first-down scramble against a top defense in the 49ers in '22. Plus a ball-flick celebration.

— Luca Evans (@bylucaevans)

The major issue, heading into Sunday’s conference championship, is whether Stidham has enough between the ears to handle the “kitchen sink” that the Patriots’ defense throws at opposing quarterbacks, as Hoyer described. Under Kuhr, a swarming New England attack stumped Los Angeles’s Justin Herbert in the wild-card round and picked off Houston’s C.J. Stroud four times in the divisional round.

“They’re going to bring a lot of (expletive), and that����ap where he has to rely on Sean Payton, and the preparation, and I’m sure there’s gonna be a lot of checks and – ‘When you see this look, you gotta get into this play or change the protection,’” Hoyer said.

The counter-move is that New England has no shred of Broncos tape on hand to prepare for Stidham. So, how does Denver design a gameplan around him in the span of a week?

Payton has made clear he sees Nix and Stidham as two different styles of quarterbacks. Others disagree. Stidham spent much of 2020 with Fisch studying tape of Jared Goff, and San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo, and quarterbacks in West Coast systems with plenty of under-center looks. This Denver offense has shifted more in that direction across the second half of 2025, and Palmer and Hoyer don’t see Payton’s established system needing to change much from Nix to Stidham.

“When they can run the ball and throw the play-action game, he can reach anywhere on the field with the ball,” former Auburn OC Lindsey said. “And try to create some explosives off play-action – that would be the first thing that would come to my mind.”

On one hand, Stidham’s in a position where three weeks and a Super Bowl ring would forever change his life, Bulla said. On the other hand, friends and confidants don’t see Stidham stretching himself much for Sunday. Quarterbacks who finally receive their shot, as Palmer said, generally fall into one of two mental buckets. Some hope it’ll go well. Some think it should go well.

Stidham feels, Palmer said, that he should play well.

“When we win that game,” Skinner said, “what they gon’ say now? What they’ gon say now, you know what I mean. They gon’ say — ‘Stiddy this. Stiddy that.’

“Stiddy gon’ get a brand-new contract off this, bro,” he continued. “That����ap how I’m looking at it, man. We riding out with Stiddy.”

Then, shortly after Milton Williams sacked the Chargers’ Justin Herbert on Sunday night to secure the Patriots’ first playoff victory in seven years, Williams of Vrabel.

It knocked the first-year coach backward and bloodied his lip.

“The big dogs come out in January. I think Milt took that to heart,” Vrabel said. “He came over and got me pretty good. But that����ap what happens.”

Drake Maye in the fourth quarter, and New England’s defense roughed up Herbert as the Patriots beat Los Angeles 16-3 in an AFC wild-card playoff game.

Andy Borregales kicked three field goals for the Patriots (15-3), who hadn’t won in the postseason since their Super Bowl victory to cap the 2018 season. They’ll host the winner of Monday night����ap game between Pittsburgh and Houston in the divisional round.

In his playoff debut, Maye completed 17 of 29 passes for 268 yards and ran for a team-high 66 yards.

“We made plays when we had to do it,” Maye said.

He also threw an interception and lost a fumble, but the Chargers (11-7) couldn’t capitalize on those turnovers.

New England held Los Angeles to 207 yards of offense and sacked Herbert six times, with one of those resulting in a lost fumble that set up the Patriots’ TD.

“It����ap on us, what we do. I’ve been saying that all season,” Williams said. “We can control the game. If we do what we need to do up front, we’re going to win.”

This is the second straight season in which the Chargers have lost in the wild-card round. Herbert finished 19 of 31 for 159 yards and was his team’s leading rusher with 57 yards as he fell to 0-3 in the playoffs.

Herbert was just over a month removed from surgery to repair a broken bone in his nonthrowing hand.

“There was no issue,” Herbert said. “I just have to do a better job holding on to the ball.”

Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh said his quarterback wasn’t 100 percent.

“He’s a warrior. He just gives it everything he has, all the time,” Harbaugh said, acknowledging that Herbert was limited by his hand injury. “It����ap an issue, but he doesn’t flinch, like a warrior would.”

The last time the Chargers failed to score a TD in the playoffs was their 21-12 AFC championship game loss to the Patriots during the 2007 season.

The Patriots drove into the red zone on their first possession of the third quarter, but the drive ended when Maye was strip-sacked by Odafe Oweh and De’Shawn Hand recovered for the Chargers.

After Los Angeles punted, Maye connected on a pass to Kayshon Boutte that went for 42 yards to set the Patriots up on the Chargers 27. But New England settled for a 39-yard field goal that stretched their lead to 9-3.

Early in the fourth quarter, Maye used a 16-yard pass to Boutte and a 13-yard burst by Rhamondre Stevenson to set up his precise 28-yard TD toss to Henry that put the Patriots in front 16-3.

The Chargers picked up back-to-back first downs to open their ensuing drive. But when Herbert dropped back to pass on the next play, linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson strip-sacked him and fell on loose ball.

Los Angeles had one final possession, but it ended with Herbert getting sacked by Williams on fourth down.

“It����ap playoff football. It����ap going to get ugly. It����ap going to get nasty. But you’ve got to keep going,” Williams said.

Patriots get 3 the hard way

The opening quarter had lots of action, but it took until early in the second quarter for the Patriots to end a scoreless stalemate.

With New England pinned inside its own 10 after a Chargers punt, Maye had a pass intended for Austin Hooper tipped by Teair Tart and intercepted by Daiyan Henley.

Los Angeles started with the ball on the Patriots 10 but was stopped on fourth-and-2 when Herbert misfired a pass to Keenan Allen.

The Patriots took over and got some breathing room via a 48-yard catch-and-run by Stevenson.

Thirteen plays and a fourth-down conversion later, the drive ended with Borregales’ 23-yard field goal.

Injuries

Patriots: CB Carlton Davis left in the first half with a toe injury but returned. … CB Christian Gonzalez left in the second half with a head injury.

Up next

Chargers: End of season.

Patriots: Host either Houston or Pittsburgh next Sunday.

“I told Sean Payton I thought it was the best selection in the draft at quarterback,” the former St. Louis Rams coach and offensive coordinator told The Post. “With Sean’s great understanding of the passing game, Bo Nix went to the perfect spot.”

Two years later, Nix boasts 24 wins, and will be watching from his couch this weekend after the Broncos secured the AFC’s No. 1 seed and a bye. Still, no Denver quarterback has been more heavily scrutinized since Peyton Manning.

Nix led the NFL in passing attempts and game-winning drives. Yet every Sunday feels like a race to the keyboard or microphone to criticize the mole on Cindy Crawford’s face (guilty as charged).

Win the Super Bowl with the AFC field wide open, or this season is a failure.

Do you Bo-lieve that? I don’t.

If you were watching the Broncos the past two games, you’d be fooling yourself to place that much faith in this team to go undefeated in the postseason.

So, regarding Nix, we have been looking at this all wrong.

He is being held to the same standard as the likes of Derek Jeter. Anything less than a downtown parade is a waste? Please. That is easy to say when you play for the Yankees, who use championship banners as coasters.

These days, no one affords anyone patience. But, Nix deserves context.

The Broncos are back in the playoffs for a second straight season, one game closer to Super Bowl LX, and a legitimate contender because Nix has played with a slow heartbeat in the fourth quarter.

But how about we sip the orange Kool-Aid instead of chugging it, and consider the history Nix is chasing.

Not only has a rookie quarterback never won a Super Bowl, but a second-year starter has only pulled it off four times: Kurt Warner (1999), Tom Brady (2002), Ben Roethlisberger (2005) and Russell Wilson (2013).

That is a success rate of 6.7 % in 59 attempts.

This is not meant to provide Nix with an excuse, but an appropriate frame of reference. Those aforementioned players are either in the Hall of Fame (Warner) or will be (yes, even Wilson has a strong case).

Nix has been good. Manning told me he would be last summer, stressing “he is made of the right stuff.” But nobody is rushing to get his measurements for a gold jacket.

Nix is solid, inspiring confidence in teammates, who have watched him play his best when it matters most. Still, let’s be real about the current ask: win a Super Bowl in his second season?

Here’s the thing about Warner, Brady, Roethlisberger and Wilson: they did not have to put on a cape. They had sidekicks worthy of Marvel Comics. All four of them were paired with 1,000-yard rushers in Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk, Antowain Smith, Willie Parker and Marshawn Lynch.

These guys had nicknames like “Superman,” “Fast Willie” and “Beast Mode.” Roethlisberger had Canton-bound Jerome “The Bus” Bettis as a short-yardage back for goodness sake.

Nix has R.J. Harvey — RJ for short — and Jaleel McLaughlin who doesn’t have a nickname but is known for the team misspelling his name on the back of his jersey in the preseason.

This is where Nix misses “El Toro,” aka J.K. Dobbins. He was on pace to eclipse 1,000 yards — he finished with 772 through 10 games, still a team best — before injuring his foot.

Want to be fair to Nix: Ask more of him in the Super Bowl if Dobbins returns.

Too lenient a standard?

You do realize that only eight second-year quarterbacks have even reached the Super Bowl, and Dan Marino, Colin Kaepernick, Joe Burrow and Brock Purdy all failed. And every one of them had a 1,000-yard rusher, save for Marino, who passed for a record 5,084 yards and 48 touchdowns.

This is why it is important to widen the lens on the Broncos season. It has been special; you don’t win 14 games without creating goosebumps. But these Broncos are not like those of 1997, 1998 and 2015.

They are more flawed, a year ahead of schedule. They don’t have a championship offense on paper, and the resumes of Manning and John Elway dwarf Nix’s credentials.

Which is why it is fascinating how bad games cling to Nix like Bounce sheets, especially in relation to the other quarterbacks in the field.

Josh Allen and C.J. Stroud have never won a postseason road game or reached the big game. Justin Herbert’s next playoff victory will be his first. Same goes for Sam Darnold. And Aaron Rodgers has not posted a postseason victory since 2021.

Nix has delivered some ugly quarters and halves, last week among them. It is why even some of his comebacks get dinged since he sprayed an extinguisher on fires he started.

In the end, though, he has done his part without, as Warner explained before the season, a remarkable cast.

He has played a significant role while being asked to take on as much responsibility as any sophomore quarterback in recent memory.

The Broncos are not a Super Bowl team in the traditional sense, not without more weapons offensively, and a special teams boost from Marvin Mims Jr. But they do have a defense that generates pressure and, if the Chargers’ win is any indication, remains capable of displaying sticky fingers.

And they have a quarterback they trust. ����apountry understands it — they lived through 13 underwhelming starters after Manning. The locker room knows it.

And Martz gets it.

“I would love to coach that kid,” said Martz, who coached Warner to a Super Bowl title in his second season. “Absolutely, love it.”

Martz was right about Nix. All Nix has done is put himself in a position to win a championship.

But let’s be realistic: it is not a failure if he doesn’t.

Sean Keeler: I’ll take the Steelers  Because “200” is about how many yards I can see Old Man Aaron Rodgers throwing for against this Broncos defense — and that’s as a best-case scenario. It was hard to look away from the end of Pittsburgh-Baltimore on Sunday night, which felt way more like a playoff game than Broncos-Chargers ever did. And all I could keep thinking was, ‘Man, I do not love the idea of Vance Joseph’s beat-up safety group having to tackle Derrick Henry for three hours.’ Well, thanks to Tyler Loop, we don’t have to worry about that.

Renck: The Steelers have no chance of beating the Broncos. Ben Roethlisberger, in his prime, couldn’t do it in 2015. And 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers, near the end of his time, won’t. Or get the chance. He will be eliminated. Bring on the Texans. The Texans believe they would have beaten Denver earlier this season if quarterback C.J. Stroud had not been knocked out with a concussion. Their defense is nasty, so why would they make the most favorable matchup? History. The Texans have never won a divisional game, posting an 0-6 record. All on the road. The Broncos are built to win ugly, so Houston dragging them into the mud will be welcomed in a low-scoring home game.

Keeler: A Broncos-Texans rematch should come with a “Viewer Discretion Is Advised” TV warning before kickoff. History says you’d welcome the Texans in your house for the postseason — Houston’s also 0-6 all-time as a road playoff team. But oh-fers don’t last forever, do they? Denver handed the Texans their last loss, and that tilt saw all kinds of fluke-y stuff, Davis Mills chief among then, that swung it toward the orange and blue. And while I like the matchup of the Broncos’ nasty front versus Houston’s iffy offensive line, I’m less crazy about a motivated Texans bunch coming in here riding a 10-game win streak.

Renck: Arguments can be advanced that the Broncos would be better off playing the Chargers, a team decimated by offensive line issues that were exploited Sunday. But facing an opponent three times is dicey, with familiar breeding contempt and insight. And be careful asking for the Bills. They lack weapons on both sides of the ball, but do you really want to risk Josh Allen throwing on a cape in a revenge game against Denver not drafting him? The reality is that the Broncos can beat anyone. Or lose to anyone. But given Denver’s offensive limitations, the Texans represent the most favorable matchup because it plays into the Broncos’ strength of leaning into their defense and raucous crowd to squeak out a hand-wringing victory.

Keeler: It’s about matchups from here on out, and Josh Allen is one I’d absolutely be looking to avoid. Not crazy about a Jags rematch, for obvious reasons, or a Chargers team that’s got Justin Herbert instead of Trey Lance slinging it around. But Pittsburgh, on paper, ticks the most boxes right now. Pittsburgh’s offensive line is salty, but so is Rodgers’ beard. In his last two games versus a VJ defense, A-Rod is 1-1, has averaged 205 passing yards and 16.5 points, all while getting sacked six times. When Rodgers has been sacked four or more times in the postseason, he’s 1-5. Like those odds. Especially at home.

After Denver ground out a 19-3 win over the Chargers in Week 18, ESPN reporter Kris Rhim posted a video to Twitter of Los Angeles safety Tony Jefferson walking back in an Empower Field tunnel with a few very choice words aimed at the Broncos.

“They suck, bro,” Jefferson said, seemingly aimed at nobody in particular. “I don’t care. I have no respect for them. I don’t like nobody on the Broncos.”

Jefferson then appeared to acknowledge the camera, pointed, and called Broncos safety JL Skinner a “homie” before continuing with a flurry of shots.

If Chargers beat Patriots in playoffs, they get another shot at Broncos

"Broncos suck, though," Jefferson continued as he walked into the locker room.

Denver fell miles short of a top-tier performance against a Chargers team that rested several key players Sunday, including quarterback Justin Herbert. The Broncos didn't score a single touchdown on offense, and Sean Payton's unit averaged just 4.1 yards per play in a sleepy gameplan against a conservative Los Angeles defense.

Jefferson, for his part, recorded a team-high eight tackles for Los Angeles.

These Broncos have fed all season off national narratives -- perceived or otherwise -- and any dose of bulletin-board material. When the Broncos' and Giants' fanbases got into an online sparring match in Week 7 over a few dismissive comments by outside linebacker Jonathon Cooper towards quarterback Jaxson Dart, Broncos defenders went on a social-media victory lap after a comeback win. And head coach Sean Payton has effectively planted an "underdog" mentality inside a 14-3 team that's now the holder of the AFC's No. 1 seed.

Keeler: Broncos, make us Bo-lieve! If QB Bo Nix plays like he did vs. Chargers, Denver is 1-and-done in NFL playoffs

When asked Sunday night if he felt these Broncos were still underdogs or now "overdogs" -- a nod to a coined late-season slogan -- quarterback Bo Nix answered the latter.

"They'll still give you all the reasons," Nix muttered, "why we're gonna lose the game."

Jefferson's comments could certainly wash away in the span before the AFC divisional round. But if Los Angeles beats 14-3 New England this coming Sunday, they'll be guaranteed to return to Denver in two weeks.

"We’ve got, like, backlogs of tape on the Chargers," Broncos head coach Sean Payton said Sunday night, in a discussion of Denver's bye-week plans. "They could very well be here in a couple weeks.”