Ben Tenzer and Jon Wallace had taken a measured and conservative approach in the draft. Instead of selecting a player 26th overall, they had traded back nine spots to acquire two future second-round picks, prioritizing asset accumulation over an immediate gamble on late first-round talent. They were walking away with two new rookies, but the real prize was their mini-stash of draft capital. New trade pieces to be used later. Patience for the sake of future aggression.

Meanwhile, it was time to talk about Peyton Watson.

“We feel good about where that’s at,” Tenzer told reporters, reiterating a recent stance. “And we hope Peyton is here a long time.”

As it turned out, Denver’s draft strategy foreshadowed the eventual outcome for Watson, a restricted free agent whose seven-week stalemate with the Nuggets ended in a sign-and-trade to Cleveland on Aug. 19. Denver relinquished the rights to Watson in exchange for a 2031 unprotected first-round pick and a 2032 second-rounder. The Cavaliers signed a four-year, $88 million contract agreement with the 23-year-old wing, who was drafted 30th overall in 2022.

After four years of gradual development and one brilliant month of exploding star potential, Watson’s time in Denver was over. And the Nuggets hadn’t received a player back in the trade, controversially eroding their roster depth ahead of a pivotal 2026-27 season. After feeling out the market, they viewed Cleveland’s first-round pick as a more valuable asset than any player available to them, team sources told The Denver Post. It’s intended as a trade piece to be cashed in well before 2031. Patience for the sake of future aggression.

But what changed between January, when keeping Watson skyrocketed up the Nuggets’ priority list, and August, when their homegrown success story was cut short? Behind the scenes, several factors contributed to the most significant move of Denver’s 2026 offseason — painting a nuanced picture of why the team decided to move on from Watson after a negotiation that was nearly dead on arrival.

“Stan Kroenke is a shark in the water,” as one league source familiar with the sign-and-trade put it. “So is Rich Paul.”

A salary cap crunch

The Nuggets were always prepared for the likelihood that they would lose at least one starter-level player this summer, as The Post previously reported.

The first time they firmly chose a different player over Watson was Oct. 20, 2025. It was the day before a new season tipped off, and the deadline for teams to sign contract extensions with their 2022 draftees. Watson and Christian Braun were entering the final year of their respective rookie-scale contracts. The Nuggets had enough room for only one of them to be added to the 2026-27 payroll. They were anticipating a salary cap crunch, with four starters already under contract and one of them, Aaron Gordon, set for a $9 million raise.

Signing both Braun and Watson would push Denver’s payroll over the projected second apron ($222 million), triggering not only a historic luxury tax bill for owner Stan Kroenke but also a series of roster-building penalties that would render it immensely difficult to negotiate with other teams and make changes. The front office was already concerned by its shortage of trade-eligible draft capital; finishing 2026-27 in the second apron would cause Denver’s 2034 pick to be “frozen” by rule, temporarily forbidden from being traded.

And so it was Braun or Watson. Braun was far more established — a playoff rotation piece on the 2023 championship team, an NBA Most Improved Player candidate in 2025, a durable 15-point-per-game starter. Watson was a work in progress three years into his career, an upside bet whose role on offense remained ambiguous. Was he a secondary ball-handler? A corner spot-up shooter? A dunker spot heir to Gordon? A screener and roller? The Nuggets were hesitant to offer him an average annual value north of $10 million to $12 million at the time.

They focused instead on their negotiations with Braun. With a vote of approval from Nikola Jokic, they signed the guard to a five-year, $125 million deal, planning to take Watson to restricted free agency — a process that traditionally allows teams to squeeze their incumbent young players. The snub left a sour taste for Watson’s camp.

Watson, who had started his career as a client of the same agency as Jokic, geared up for the offseason by hiring new representation: Klutch Sports founder and super-agent Rich Paul, most famous for representing LeBron James. Then came injuries to Jokic, Braun, Gordon and Cam Johnson. Dismal luck for Denver. Opportunity for Watson. He seized it, amassing stats worthy of an All-Star for one tantalizing month: 22 points per game on 49% shooting.

An injury dispute

As Watson erupted, Denver’s offseason outlook shifted. A starter’s salary would need to be sacrificed if the Nuggets were going to re-sign their young wing and stay out of dreaded second-apron territory. Johnson was widely considered most likely to go at first, because of his relatively modest contract commitment: one more year at $23 million.

But the final memory of a crushing playoff defeat in April was that of Johnson amassing 27 points and eight rebounds in a road elimination game, desperate to save Denver’s season. Watson was watching from the bench, ruled out with a lingering right hamstring injury.

Whether he could have played is still disputed.

The injury first emerged in February, during a thriller at Madison Square Garden. Watson limped off the court and underwent an MRI later in the week, revealing a grade 2 strain, according to league sources. Denver announced he would be reevaluated in four weeks. He missed 19 games over a 45-day absence. In a recent appearance on ex-teammate Michael Porter Jr.’s podcast, Watson claimed that he returned too soon. “I feel like we kind of rushed it,” he said, “and didn’t take the right approach.” He reaggravated the hamstring after five games back in the lineup. April 1 in Utah was his last game as a Nugget.

The playoffs arrived, and then they ended, far sooner than Denver had ever expected. A 54-win team crash-landed in the first round against Minnesota. Over the six-game series, Denver never publicly ruled out the possibility that Watson might return.

Privately, Watson’s camp had decided he wouldn’t play. The exact state of his health might forever remain murky, as it depends on who you ask. The Nuggets felt strongly that Watson could’ve suited up by the end of the series but was slow-playing his return to protect his contract value, five league sources told The Denver Post both during the playoffs and afterward.

Another source close to Watson, however, said that he was in no position to return at any point during the series, and that Paul had intervened to tell Watson it would be unsafe to play on a bad hamstring with free agency on the horizon. Injury reports suggesting that he might be available throughout the series, the source contends, were merely an example of gamesmanship by Denver in a tightly contested series against a rival. Watson’s plan was to return during a potential second-round series if Denver had advanced, he said on Porter’s podcast.

“I just knew I hadn’t progressed far enough in my rehab,” he explained. “I knew that this is the most intense level of basketball.”

In either case, the upcoming contract negotiation was very much a consideration, leaving people at every level of the Nuggets organization frustrated with how the situation was handled, sources told The Post. It stood in contrast to other recent examples of Denver’s players attempting to play through injuries in the playoffs: Braun in 2026, Porter in 2025, Gordon in both years. The source close to Watson said that Gordon was among the people advising him to be careful with his return.

“I was getting shot up with all types of stuff in my shoulder joint every game to try to hoop. … I didn’t really feel like we were deep enough as a team for me to sit out,” Porter said last month during his podcast conversation with Watson. “If that happened before I had gotten paid, I don’t think I would’ve put myself in that position.”

“When you’re dealing with those (soft tissue) injuries, you have to be very careful in your return,” Paul, Watson’s agent, said on recently. “Guys want to play. You have to protect them from themselves in that moment because you’re up for a contract.”

Claiming that organizational trust in Watson had taken a hit, the Nuggets drew a line in the sand at the beginning of free agency. They offered a four-year contract with an ascending salary in the range of $18 million per year, with a team option, multiple league sources said. Whatever reservations the team had, it still thought highly enough of Watson to pursue an extension with him — for the right price. But dependability and maturity were concerns on Denver’s end, while any such assertion was viewed by Watson’s side as a sign of disrespect, casting a shadow over the negotiation. The initial offer was turned down immediately. The Nuggets kept it on the table but never returned with a new one.

A sparse trade market

Even independent of injury squabbles, it’s fairly common for teams to hold a hard line in restricted free agency. They’re often comfortable letting these negotiations turn into staring contests, especially when no outside suitors extend an offer sheet (as Oklahoma City did for Denver’s Spencer Jones). But by the time this particular staring contest unfolded, the Nuggets had already gauged the trade market on other potential sacrifices they could’ve made to keep Watson.

Rival teams eyed Denver’s cap sheet and tried to take advantage of it. Hoping the Nuggets were desperate to avoid the second apron, those teams asked Denver to give up draft picks along with Johnson, multiple sources said. It wasn’t necessarily because Johnson’s contract genuinely has negative value. He ranked eighth in the NBA with a 43% 3-point clip last season. It was a matter of leverage and opportunism. The Nuggets rebuffed any such efforts.

They also received at least one legitimately good offer for the 30-year-old wing, according to a league source. They still turned it down, viewing Johnson as an impactful starter. He was Denver’s third-leading scorer in the Minnesota series, averaging 14.2 points on 50% shooting to finish strong after a checkered regular season.

Meanwhile, the Nuggets and Watson were nowhere close to a contract agreement. Watson’s side had asked for north of $25 million annually at the outset, believing him to be worth more than Braun, who was coming off his worst season. Both sides began to explore sign-and-trade options. Denver took calls from the Clippers, Bucks, Hawks and Trail Blazers.

Nothing gained much traction. Sixth Man of the Year runner-up Jaime Jaquez was floated in preliminary talks with Milwaukee, but those conversations were entirely conceptual — the Bucks never made an official sign-and-trade offer, league sources said. Denver would’ve been intrigued by the possibility of adding him if an offer had materialized.

Kris Dunn was another potential player brought up in conversations with the Clippers, but Denver wouldn’t have agreed to a deal involving the 32-year-old guard without also getting draft capital back from Los Angeles, a source said. Pulling that off would’ve been difficult because for the Nuggets, taking back any salary in a sign-and-trade would hard-cap them at the second apron by rule, meaning they would need to send out another player in addition to Watson. Zeke Nnaji’s $7.5 million salary would’ve made the most sense within the CBA framework, but he has been viewed as a negative-value contract around the league for years at this point; asking a team to give up draft picks, an attractive player and to take on Nnaji’s contract was always going to be an obstacle.

The conversations with Los Angeles and Milwaukee were also in awkward positions from the beginning because of league investigations into cap circumvention involving both teams. The uncertainty of their situations made it difficult for talks to advance past the conceptual stage.

If Watson were to be traded, it was becoming increasingly clear that an entirely pick-based return was both the most feasible path forward and the Nuggets’ preferred outcome, rather than a player who would likely slot into the back end of their rotation.

A change of scenery

Then along came the Cavs. They were the last team to get involved, a surprise late entry to the Watson sweepstakes. In the end, they were also the only team to offer Denver an unprotected first-round pick — a coveted asset with high-lottery potential, if Cleveland’s championship window is closed five years from now. No teams had offered an unprotected first-rounder for the older Johnson when he was available earlier in the summer, league sources said.

Watson’s camp grew increasingly frustrated by how Denver was navigating the summer, especially the team’s perspective on his injury. By the time Cleveland made the $88 million offer, the sense was that Watson’s side would’ve been unlikely to agree to that same offer if it had hypothetically come from the Nuggets, sources connected to both sides told The Post. A change of scenery was preferred at that point.

There was also a question of on-court role that Denver would’ve needed to address if it had increased its offer, two league sources said. Was Watson going to be a starter next season, or did the Nuggets still see him as a bench player behind the same five as last year?

He’s expected to start in Cleveland, where small forward was the last hole to plug in a lineup that reached the Eastern Conference Finals this year. It’s an impressive outcome for Watson, landing on another championship contender for a salary twice what he was worth last offseason. There were hard feelings on the way out of Denver — “anybody who knows Peyton Watson knows the last thing I am is a quitter,” he told Porter — but he also left town with a public message sending thanks to his teammates, the Kroenkes and other Nuggets brass.

“As a young player who was a bit naive and hadn’t seen much of the real world, you guys took care of me better than I could have ever imagined,” he said in an Instagram post Aug. 25. “Thanks for that. Playing this game every night on the national stage is difficult on both the body and the mind, but the love from the fans always makes it so worthwhile. I will miss seeing you at Ball Arena.”

The Nuggets walked away feeling elated by the draft pick they wrangled out of a tough situation. They know well what they gave up: youth, depth, two-way athleticism, scoring upside. Watson’s electrifying hops and friendly personality made him a fan favorite, and he may have been just scratching the surface in January. But one month was always a small sample size to bet $88 million on. After feeling out the market, the Nuggets decided they preferred Johnson’s expiring salary, Spencer Jones’ cheaper extension, and an unprotected first-rounder rather than what they would have had to sacrifice for a long-term relationship with Watson.

Signing DeMar DeRozan to a veteran minimum contract also helps alleviate the short-term sting of what’s been lost, at least offensively.

Anything can change in the NBA overnight, but as of now, Johnson is fully part of the team’s plan for the 2026-27 season, sources told The Post.

A final assessment of the trade for Denver can’t be completed until the next move. Until the Cavaliers’ pick has a new home, and another player has a new home in Denver.

The Nuggets are still thin on trade-eligible picks. They have only the one first-rounder. If they’re out of the second apron by next summer, they’ll add another to their stash. The next stage of the Jokic era depends on whether they can maximize their draft capital better than in past years.

While they wait for that next move, Watson will try to prove them wrong for this one.

How did they get into this payroll dilemma, and which decision over the last few years is most responsible for it? Which contract or trade has limited their roster-building flexibility most in hindsight?

There was the Michael Porter Jr. extension inked by former general manager Tim Connelly, which will end up paying Porter $179.3 million over five seasons. Two front office regimes later, it cost the Nuggets an unprotected first-round pick to free themselves from the last two years of that contract.

Then there was the Zeke Nnaji extension in 2023, a four-year, $32 million deal that proved to be one of the defining transactions of Calvin Booth’s tenure. Halfway through the term of that contract now and six years into his career, Nnaji still hasn’t solidified himself as a reliable rotation player, rendering him almost impossible to trade. The roster’s sixth-highest salary was seated on the bench for almost the entirety of Denver’s first-round playoff defeat in April.

There was the two-year Reggie Jackson contract that used up Denver’s taxpayer mid-level exception, curiously included a player option and eventually forced Booth to cough up three future second-round picks to salary-dump the veteran point guard. And there was the decision to trade away another three second-round picks to move up six spots in the 2024 draft for a non-lottery prospect who hasn’t panned out yet. And the long-term commitments made to Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray, who will make a combined 50% of the salary cap next season.

Now it’s Christian Braun’s five-year, $125 million deal — the first extension handed out by lead executives Jon Wallace and Ben Tenzer — that has emerged as the latest lightning rod among Nuggets fans, mostly because of who didn’t get extended as a result. Peyton Watson and Denver are stuck in a negotiating stalemate this summer, while the trade value of Braun’s new contract has been heavily scrutinized following a down year for the shooting guard.

Keeping the band together

The truth, of course, is that Denver’s sticky second-apron situation is the sum of all those moves, not a direct consequence of one of them. It’s also the price that every championship team seems to pay for success under the rule of the 2023 collective bargaining agreement. Just this summer, Knicks owner James Dolan declared “you’d have to be suicidal” to spend over the second apron as his team was trying to bask in the afterglow of a dominant title run. Sure enough, New York let Mitchell Robinson walk in free agency — then watched as the 2025 champions (OKC) salary-dumped three players for the same reason Dolan outlined.

“This was a financial decision,” Thunder general manager Sam Presti told the Oklahoman in a surprisingly blunt on-the-record confession after trading Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins.

As soon as confetti rained on the Nuggets in 2023, every key player who had contributed to the historic scene at Ball Arena suddenly became more expensive. For those who were part of the front office’s long-term vision, their importance to the franchise would show on their next contract. Denver’s margin for error in roster construction shrank to near-zero in that moment.

The Nuggets have been reckoning with that margin for error for three years now, a period in which their contract extensions have also revealed a stubborn (perhaps even admirable) determination to win again with as many of those key players as possible — the sentimentality of a seemingly bygone era.

It’s getting increasingly difficult to keep those players. If Denver eventually manages to re-sign Watson, the 23-year-old wing might prove to be more expensive than just the dollar amount of his extension.

As all of this apron tension bubbles closer to the surface, so does the question of how Denver plans to get out of this before it gets worse. If Nikola Jokic stays true to his word, he’ll sign the most lucrative contract in NBA history next summer to remain a Nugget. Building around that contract and remaining a serious championship contender into Jokic’s late 30s will the long-term challenge for Wallace and Tenzer. If they’re also building around several other expensive salaries, their flexibility will continue to be hindered.

Is a more dramatic roster overhaul looming in the near future?

Pricey pairs

One transaction earlier this offseason was particularly illuminating as a possible precedent-setter. At the very least, it’s a relevant, if controversial, move for teams like Denver to study.

The Jaylen Brown trade.

Before the Celtics shockingly shipped him off to Philadelphia for Paul George and picks, The Denver Post outlined the uncanny similarities between Brown’s status in Boston and Jamal Murray’s in Denver.

Both were drafted in 2016, four picks apart; they’ve enjoyed arguably the two best pro careers in their draft class. Both were instrumental in their teams’ slow and steady ascents from the basement of the league to its pinnacle. Both demonstrated the qualities of a playoff riser as the No. 2 option on a championship squad nearly a decade into their careers. Both turn 30 next season. Both have three years remaining on their current max contracts (Brown’s is a supermax), with no player or team options.

All the discourse this summer surrounding Brown’s impact on winning, or lack thereof, has existed within the unspoken context of the CBA. The argument against him isn’t that analytics view him as a bad player. It����ap that analytics suggest he’s not worth an average annual value of $61.7 million for the next three seasons. It’s a good old-fashioned “Moneyball” case study. Especially with Celtics co-star Jayson Tatum already taking up 35% of the salary cap on his own supermax contract.

“The path looked a little bit more challenging with 70% of our cap and such a high percent of our usage tied into two players,” Boston executive Brad Stevens said in July.

And that’s before considering the contract extension dynamics with an entrenched star like Brown, who might’ve believed he was owed another max offer by Boston as a gesture of respect. Trading him wasn’t only about his salary for the next three years; it was also a clear admission by Stevens that he didn’t want Brown occupying 35% of the cap at 35 years old. Hence Boston’s willingness to take back Paul George in the deal — another bloated salary ($55 million on average for two more years), but one that doesn’t carry the baggage of a 10-year relationship, of expectations for more long-term commitment.

George will be 38 next time he’s a free agent, assuming he picks up his player option next summer. It’s widely understood that if he signs another NBA contract, it will be for much less money.

Two months ago, Murray became eligible for a 35% supermax extension for the first time in his career by making an All-NBA team. (His current max contract is worth 30% of the cap.) Will he expect Denver to offer him that when the time comes, and will the Nuggets want to pay that much for a secondary star in his mid-30s? Will they even want to commit 30% of the cap to him for another chunk of years, with Jokic already on a supermax? The Celtics didn’t.

And the Celtics chose to get out in front of it, knowing the optics and knowing the risk. Stevens candidly acknowledged to reporters that his decision could age poorly.

Even through a short-term lens, the widely respected GM did make a salient point about trying to win with two max players in a restrictive system.

These are the two most expensive salaries on every NBA team entering the 2026-27 season:

The last eight teams to reach the NBA Finals did so with their two most expensive players occupying 60% or less of the cap.

2026: Knicks (59.9%) vs. Spurs (41.8%)

2025: Thunder (46.9%) vs. Pacers (60%)

2024: Celtics (54.1%) vs. Mavericks (57.4%)

2023: Nuggets (52.8%) vs. Heat (55%)

Can the Nuggets be an outlier?

The defining transaction behind New York’s championship was Jalen Brunson’s decision to sacrifice millions of dollars on his most recent contract; the Knicks were able to build a more complete starting lineup and a deeper bench with their best player earning the third-most in salary

It’s notable that their highest-paid player, Karl-Anthony Towns, is currently extension-eligible but hasn’t signed. Brunson probably isn’t going to give Dolan another bargain on his next extension. The Knicks must now operate under the assumption that Brunson will be playing on a supermax in the next couple of years. Planning accordingly means playing hardball with KAT — or trading him.

The Spurs have similarly capitalized on a mini-window with Victor Wembanyama on his rookie-scale contract. It gets trickier in 2027-28, but even then, Wembanyama gave them a minor discount. He and De’Aaron Fox will make a combined 55.7% that season.

The Thunder won with Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams both on rookie deals. Now, those two have 25% max extensions taking effect this season, which should suffice as a viable payroll structure for at least one more year. Then in 2027, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s supermax kicks in, and the top-heavy cap sheet gets dicey.

Boston won the year before Brown’s supermax took effect (and two years before Tatum’s). Denver won the year before Jokic’s took effect (and three before Murray’s 30% max). The similarities hardly feel coincidental.

By all of this logic, the top eight teams listed above are automatically disqualified from contention for the 2027 championship (including Boston, ironically). That would explain why Stevens was willing to trade a franchise cornerstone to a rival of all teams. Philadelphia already had a supermax player on the books, plus Tyrese Maxey making $40 million. Now the 76ers have the exact payroll structure that Boston seemingly wanted to avoid. The problem is that they also have VJ Edgecombe on a rookie deal and LeBron James for $3.9 million.

The real overarching lesson could be this: If a team is going to pay two players an exorbitant amount of finite money, it had better be supremely confident that those two players are a perfect fit together.

Of all the duos near the top of that 2026-27 chart, Jokic and Murray have proven themselves more worthy of a combined 66% cap hit than anyone else. They’re the only tandem in the top six with more than 60 games played together. Embiid and Brown; Tatum and George; Antetokounmpo and Adebayo; and Davis and Young are all brand-new pairings.

As long as Denver’s front office remains confident that Jokic and Murray’s offensive chemistry transcends their defensive shortcomings, maybe that’ll be enough to buoy their partnership. Maybe the belief will persist in Denver that Murray and Jokic can be an outlier.

Or maybe Stevens’ words will ring true with the Nuggets, and they’ll eventually feel forced to press the red button on their loyal payroll structure.

The Nuggets will play only 14 back-to-backs in the 2026-27 regular season — three fewer than last season. Their longest road trips will span four games — three fewer than last season, when Nikola Jokic hyperextended his knee and injuries piled up during a two-week marathon out east.

They will return to Denver for a one-game homestand only four times, and they will leave town for an awkward one-game excursion only six times — seven fewer than last season in both cases, enabling them to enjoy the comforts of home more.

The full NBA schedule was unveiled Thursday afternoon, minus two to-be-determined games for each team that will have to wait for the results of the NBA Cup group stage. Here are 10 key games for Nuggets fans to circle on the calendar — excluding the season opener at Oklahoma City and Christmas nightcap at Golden State, which were already announced Tuesday. It goes without saying that those are interesting, premier games.

Tip times are listed in MT. Nationally broadcasted games are denoted by the TV network or streaming service on which they’ll appear.

Nov. 2 vs. Portland Trail Blazers, 7 p.m.

Denver’s home opener on Oct. 24 against the Pelicans will certainly be intriguing, as fans will greet the team in a competitive environment for the first time since last season ended on the road in an abrupt and embarrassing fashion. But the third home game of the year is even more worth watching. Jokic’s pal Micah Nori has taken over as Portland’s head coach, and he’s tasked with finding a synergy between wild card newcomer Ja Morant and franchise icon Damian Lillard, who’s coming off a torn Achilles tendon and should return to the court as a Blazer for the first time since 2023, a week before this matchup.

Nov. 7 at Indiana Pacers (Mexico City), 3 p.m.

Speaking of Achilles injuries, this game is fascinating for a couple of reasons, primarily because it’s scheduled early in the NBA’s reintroduction of Tyrese Haliburton. He and Jokic might be the two greatest passers in the sport today, point gods of the highest order, following in the footsteps of Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook. They combined for 34 assists when they faced off two years ago in Indiana. Also, Mexico City is cool.

Nov. 27 at Utah Jazz, 7:30 p.m.

Denver will face the Suns (Oct. 30 in Phoenix), Rockets (Nov. 20 at home), Mavericks (Nov. 24 at home) and Jazz in the NBA Cup group stage. It’s the first time the Nuggets haven’t found themselves in a “group of death” since 2023. And this will be the grand finale, potentially with a trip to the knockout stage on the line, if you care about those things. If you don’t? Utah is still a more interesting opponent than it has been in recent years, with No. 2 overall draft pick Darryn Peterson arriving and Jaren Jackson Jr. joining the frontcourt.

Dec. 19 vs. Los Angeles Lakers, 7 p.m.

Jokic vs. Doncic is always appointment viewing, and the Lakers have reassembled their roster to better suit Luka’s needs this offseason. JJ Redick will naturally be eager to put Jokic in as many actions as possible. This will be the three-time MVP’s first time trying to defend the Doncic-Walker Kessler pick-and-roll, which Los Angeles clearly expects to be a dominant bread-and-butter play for years to come. These teams meet again in Hollywood four days later.

Dec. 28 vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 8:30 p.m. (NBC)

And then on the other side of Christmas, on the second night of a back-to-back, the Nuggets face their first encounter with the LaMelo Ball-Anthony Edwards tandem. Bitter playoff memories could bubble to the surface in this two-game series, which begins in Denver and switches to Minnesota on New Year’s Eve. The Wolves made a big offseason change to their lineup, but Jaden McDaniels and his trash-talking ways haven’t gone anywhere.

Jan. 11 at New York Knicks, 5:30 p.m. (Peacock)

The annual trip to Madison Square Garden, which is not only the world’s most famous arena but also the home of the champions now. Jalen Brunson scored 42 points when the Nuggets visited last season, lifting the Knicks to a double-overtime win. Playing in that game was so fun, Jamal Murray said afterward, that he didn’t even notice when Peyton Watson left the floor with a hamstring injury that altered the course of Denver’s season.

Jan. 21 vs. Washington Wizards, 7 p.m.

Nobody knows what to make of the Wizards. They’re a remarkably strange team, blessed with the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft lottery (AJ Dybantsa), yet also suddenly headlined by Anthony Davis and Trae Young. Their mix of compelling young talent and overpriced star power has resulted in a wide range of predictions for their season. In any case, they should be an interesting opponent for Denver to host a couple of weeks before the trade deadline.

Feb. 28 at San Antonio Spurs, 11 a.m. (ABC)

For the second consecutive year, you’re gonna have to wait to watch Jokic and Victor Wembanyama go head-to-head in the post. They didn’t share the court until April 6 last season, due to a combination of scheduling and injury misfortune. But when they finally did match up, it was everything a hoops fan dreamt it would be. The power structure has shifted since then. Wembanyama has led San Antonio to the NBA Finals. It’s his league, not Jokic’s. Until further notice.

March 14 vs. Miami Heat, 5:30 p.m. (NBC)

Denver’s two meetings with the new-look Heat are both in March; the game in Miami is scheduled for a week after this. Will the physicality and rim protection of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo and Andrew Wiggins make the Nuggets’ mighty offense look bad? Or will Miami’s utter lack of spacing do the improbable and make their defense look good? A fun subplot here: Tim Hardaway Jr. returns to Ball Arena, likely to the tune of a standing ovation.

March 28 vs. Philadelphia 76ers, 8 p.m. (NBC)

If these 10 games were ranked on a scale of anticipation, rather than listed chronologically, Philly’s visit to Ball Arena would be a pretty obvious No. 1. Where to start? It might be LeBron James’ last game in Denver. It might be Joel Embiid’s first game in Denver in seven and a half years (or it might not be — great theater either way). And it’s an up-close look at the NBA’s newest superteam, featuring Jaylen Brown vs. Aaron Gordon and Tyrese Maxey vs. Jamal Murray and even a cameo from old friend Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. When the Sixers come to town, it’ll be the hottest ticket of the season.

Commissioner Adam Silver wisecracked in July that LeBron James’ �����Ƿ���free-agent deliberations were delaying the process of building that schedule. But now that James is Philly-bound, the release should be able to proceed, well, on schedule. At least part of the regular-season slate will be unveiled on Tuesday on ABC’s Good Morning America, . The entire schedule is usually dropped around mid-August.

Here at The Denver Post, it’s a time-honored tradition for the Broncos beat writers to predict the team’s schedule before it is announced. Inspired by that meaningless exercise, we’ve decided to attempt an NBA equivalent. It makes no sense to predict all 82 Nuggets games, of course. But how about the biggest game day of the NBA calendar? As always, 10 teams will be selected to play on Christmas in an ESPN quintuple-header based largely on storylines and clout.

The balance of star power in the league is fairly widespread these days. Which 10 teams will make the cut? And are the Nuggets in danger of being left out for the first time since 2021? Here’s our guess, in order of when each predicted game will air.

Heat at Celtics, noon ET

ESPN and the NBA decided that Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Bucks weren’t worthy of playing on Christmas the last two years. Antetokounmpo’s Heat might not be much better, but what matters is that it’s new and interesting (and a bigger market). Pairing Miami with Boston sets up an easy opportunity for the network’s talking heads to relitigate the Giannis trade six months after the Celtics were runners-up for him, reportedly refusing to include Huge Gonzalez in their offer to Milwaukee.

Thunder at Timberwolves, 2:30 p.m. ET

The Nuggets FOMO Bowl. Last Christmas, they hosted Minnesota in a late-night eggnog classic. This year, their two division rivals will face off. There’s plenty of narrative meat on the bone here, perhaps most notably that complaining about Oklahoma City’s whistle has become a national pastime, and nobody does it louder or with more disgust than Timberwolves coach Chris Finch. In general, Anthony Edwards and the Wolves should be more of a national TV staple next season, now that LaMelo Ball is in town to make them Instagram-famous.

Spurs at Knicks, 5 p.m. ET

They already matched up on Christmas two years ago, when Victor Wembanyama was a charming European rookie eager to explore Manhattan. He probably can’t get away with inviting New Yorkers to play anymore. Not because he’s internationally famous now — chalk it up to infamy instead. Wembanyama developed a reputation among Knicks fans as an arrogant and dirty player during the NBA Finals in June. He was unapologetically confident that his Spurs were the better team, even as the series unraveled on them. His first return to Madison Square Garden since then is too irresistible.

76ers at Lakers, 8 p.m. ET

Philadelphia is the first domino that will determine how most of this Christmas schedule shakes out: Should the 76ers visit Boston for a bittersweet Jaylen Brown reunion, or Los Angeles for the first time since the LeBron breakup? One of those two matchups feels almost guaranteed. We’re going with the LeBroniest option in the prime-time slot. The NBA’s newest superteam against its historic flagship franchise. Lost amid the James media circus will be an underrated storyline: Brown guarding Luka Doncic is a trippy rematch of the 2024 NBA Finals, when they were both on different teams that you probably assumed would never trade them.

Rockets at Warriors, 10:30 p.m. ET

This should be the end of Golden State’s 13-year streak of Christmas Day games, but it won’t be. The NBA just can’t quit Steph Curry. And it can’t quit Kevin Durant either, for that matter. The aging legends and former teammates remain Old Reliable for TV executives, as long as they continue to play in major markets. They get the “Pac-12 After Dark” game this year.

Predicted snubs

Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets are forced to cope with the league’s disrespect for them … as they spend Christmas with their families for the first time in five years. (Prediction for if they do play? Road game at the Lakers.)

Cleveland and Dallas are the two other teams that narrowly miss the cut. The Cavaliers are fresh off an Eastern Conference Finals run and still headlined by Donovan Mitchell and James Harden, but there isn’t an obvious delicious matchup for them. If only LeBron had returned home.

The Mavericks could be a decent (but ultimately less exciting) alternate matchup for San Antonio, if the league wants to prioritize getting Cooper Flagg in front of a national audience. It would be a Texas showdown and clash of two recent No. 1 draft picks who are supposed to be generational.

The sleeper team that real hoop heads should want to see on Christmas is Indiana, but it’s difficult to imagine that happening. The holiday would be a perfect time to reignite Madison Square Garden’s bitter feelings toward Tyrese Haliburton.

Wait. Or did Lawson win?

We’re confused. Then again, we’ve been confused a lot lately. Full disclosure: It’s been something of a perplexing, slow week up in the Grading The Week offices.

Summer went by in a blink, didn’t it? And, just as we’ve finally wiped the sweat from our eyes, it’s coming to a screeching halt. We’re getting antsy for the start of Broncos training camp, truth to be told. And based on the last six or seven days, the Front Range news cycle seems to be feeling the same. The top stories that didn’t involve LeBron James or Hunter Goodman around here this past week? Cripes, were they weird. We’ve got a Nuggets nugget and a Rockies nugget, but we’ll start with the hoops one. Buckle up

Ty Lawson’s Castle Rock tale — Incomplete

Lawson, the Nuggets point guard from 2009-2015, found himself back in the news this past Thursday. Only not for, um, basketball reasons.

The 38-year-old former North Carolina Tar Heel was reportedly arrested on July 16 for allegedly stealing a bottle of vodka in Castle Rock,

The arrest affidavit, per the report, went on to say that Lawson allegedly took a bottle of Tito’s vodka from a store. The shop owner told police that the man was seen drinking from the bottle in front of the store, then took it with him to a nearby restaurant. Further reports said that during his arrest, Lawson referred to the arresting officer in Not Safe For Work language and kicked at the glass wall of his cell before apologizing for his behavior.

Once the arrest was reported, Lawson fired off a series of rebuttals via his X.com account, and they’re also very NSFW.

Spying on the Rockies? — F

It’s hard admitting to being a Rockies fan. It’s like rooting for You know your guys are going to hit a wall. It’s only a matter of when, and the speed of the impact. You’re here for a good time, not a long one.

But at least you’re not Angels fans. Mercy.

The Halos have replaced their second-team-in-a-big-town cousins, the White Sox, as the most dysfunctional franchise in the American League. How dysfunctional?

Let’s put it this way: They were just caught spying on the Rox. Your Rox. The 100-losses-for-three-straight-seasons Rox.

Per The Athletic, was apparently filming Rockies coaches with his phone in advance of a Rox-Angels series June 1-3.

Filming by scouts is allowed, but gathering material outside of what’s available and shown during MLB broadcasts is a no-no. Prinstein, per the same report, was also allegedly caught filming Padres coaches this past April.

The Rockies went on to win two of three games against the Halos in that series, by the way, and outscored the Angels 21-14.

Again: weird, weird, weird week.

LeBron’s Philly cheese — D

It was always going to be an Eastern Conference team for King James, wasn’t it? On paper, it’s the easiest playoff path to a ring. Plus, it gives LeBron an Eastern seaboard stop (Philadelphia) to go along with the West Coast (Los Angeles), the South (Miami), and the Midwest (Cleveland) in his World Tour of NBA home markets.

Denver was always a long shot for Old Man ‘Bron. Although if you’re a Nuggets fan, there are a couple parts that sting when it comes to the King. One, that he took a league-veteran-minimum deal (approximately $3.9 million) from the 76ers, which is about the same (limited) money the Nuggs had available to offer. Two, that he’s playing with Joel Embiid to close out a legendary career and not Nikola Jokic. We’ll have to see if, unlike Embiid, James will actually suit up at Ball Arena when the Sixers make their annual one-game trek to Chopper Circle.

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James, announced Friday morning that he will play for the Philadelphia 76ers next season in what he said will be his “last decision.”

“I believe I can help make the Philadelphia 76ers a championship team and I am so excited to energize a new fan base and start this incredible journey one last time,” James said.

that James is signing a two-year deal with the 76ers worth $8 million.

The Nuggets launched a campaign to recruit James to Denver after he and the Lakers agreed to part ways ahead of the NBA free agency moratorium. James, 41, has friends throughout the Nuggets’ organization, from team president Josh Kroenke to lead assistant coach Jared Dudley.

He also has deep admiration for three-time MVP center Nikola Jokic. The opportunity to team up with the Serbian big man was a critical selling point in Denver’s pitch to James, who, like Jokic, is regarded as one of the smartest players in the history of the sport.

The 76ers will be James’ fourth team, following the Cleveland Cavaliers, Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers. James has four MVP trophies, four championships, 10 NBA Finals appearances, 21 All-NBA nods, six All-Defensive Team honors and an NBA Cup in-season tournament title. He averaged 20.9 points, 6.1 rebounds and 7.2 assists in 60 games last season.

With co-stars Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves sidelined by injuries, James led Los Angeles to a first-round upset of Houston in the playoffs.

The Cavs, Heat, Golden State Warriors and Minnesota Timberwolves were among the other teams that reportedly showed interest in signing James as a free agent, though his agent said recently he had been contacted by almost every team in the league.

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On the 23rd day since leaving the Lakers — let’s be honest, they pushed him out the door — James made The Decision, Part 3.

He is signing a two-year, $8 million deal with the Philadelphia 76ers. Thank goodness. Our long national nightmare is over. NBA commissioner Adam Silver can finally finish up the league schedule. Get ready for ESPN to treat the Sixers like the Yankees as they seek their first championship in 43 years.

James had the right to handle this with patience, but it doesn’t mean it wasn’t driving us nuts.

The hope is that James jumping to his fourth team will unclog the offseason traffic jam. Will the 41-year-old finding a new home finally create some positive momentum for one of the most depressing Nuggets’ offseasons ever?

The Nuggets were long ago removed from consideration for James.

So why bring it up and drizzle Sea Breeze in an open wound?

James held up other NBA moves. There is no way around it. Please, let this be the push that allows the other dominoes to fall.

James’ slow play connects to Nuggets’ restricted free agent Peyton Watson. The other teams chasing James — Cavs, Heat, Warriors — have not been linked to Watson.

But as the losers of the derby might they join the Bucks and Clippers as interested in the forward?

Klutch Sports, which represents James and Watson, had no problem with the turtle pace. Agent Rich Paul wants a big offer sheet for Watson, and that is more likely if his market expands.

The Nuggets have engaged in a stare down. It was a wise decision. They could end the madness by signing Watson to a contract of more than $25 million per season — it has to be more than Christian Braun — but why would they bid against themselves?

But the time for patience is over. The Nuggets need to apply the screws, to move with pace. Yes, it is complicated.

To sign Watson and stay under the apron, the Nuggets must trade Cam Johnson. The problem? The entire league knows this. So while there have been suitors, the offers obviously have not moved the needle. That should change as market clarity forms for Watson and Jalen Duren.

And it is needed to goose Klutch Sports. The agency has drawn out talks with restricted free agents before like Tristan Thompson, Nerlens Noel and Eric Bledsoe, with varying degrees of success. This becomes a moot point if Watson gets an offer sheet. It will force an outcome.

That is ideal. The last thing the Nuggets need is for Watson to hold out. And it cannot be ruled out since it is his greatest leverage to take the negotiations into October and see who blinks.

The Nuggets could pull the ripcord, and move on from Watson with a sign-and-trade.

That would be a mistake. It is one thing to lose out for James. It is another to let his free agent approach contribute to the Nuggets losing Watson.

He is everything this roster needs going forward: young, athletic, defensively-skilled and capable of creating his own shot.

James not making Denver a finalist was a gut punch. It is time for the Nuggets to crawl off the mat and make sure they get Watson back.

Arch of Texas: No college quarterback is under more pressure than Arch Manning. After an uneven first season as a starter, he has taken a leadership role and been surrounded with offensive weapons, namely receiver Cam Coleman, that screams championship or bust. Manning played loose and effective down the stretch last season. Now, he must show he can read defenses without losing his mechanics. The early prediction is that the Browns draft him next season.

Jake of All Trades: Jake Paul turned from an influencer into a boxer. Can we just stop there? Paul believes he could play in the NFL. I would love to see him at camp so a linebacker could light him up like the Vegas strip. The only thing stupider than Paul playing in the NFL is Tom Brady engaging in a cringey, scripted feud with the faux Hulk. Tom, please. You are a sports legend. This stuff should be beneath you.

Rox progress: The Rockies’ record stinks. But they are making progress in a number of areas. Multiple agents this week left impressed after talking with the Rockies before and after the draft. It was a new experience that Colorado nailed their valuations of players. Now, the onus is on the front office to be similarly shrewd with trades. The difference? There is a growing belief that they can pull off a productive deadline, a sentence rarely uttered over the last decade in Colorado.

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Sean Keeler: The Nuggets’ summer so far could be described my friend. Here’s the thing: There’s the open market, what everybody else thinks your players are worth; and there’s the Nuggets’ internal “reward our dudes” market. Steph Noh’s salary projection while the site has that number between $14-18 million. The latter also notes, though, that it thinks P-Swat will actually get something along the lines of a four-year deal at $80 million to $100 million, or $20-25 million per season. Which would be in line with what his teammates are getting and should justifiably exceed that. If Cam Johnson (12.2 points per game, 43% 3-point shooting rate) is worth $23 million and Christian Braun (12.0 ppg, 30.1% on treys) is worth $21.55 million, then it’s an easy argument from Watson’s camp that their guy (14.6 ppg, 41.1% on treys) should make more, based on last season’s production.

Renck: Watson is everything the Nuggets need: a bouncy, young player — just 23 — with defensive prowess and offensive upside. Once Watson showed he could create his own shot, he was worth it. The sample size is chillingly small, but when Nikola Jokic missed 16 games with a knee injury, Watson averaged 22.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.5 blocks. He emerged as a big reason Denver posted a 10-6 record in Jokic’s absence. It is uncomfortable to pay Watson $25 million per season — heck, it will likely take more — after Christian Braun became injured and ineffective on the same salary last season. But it is not fair to hold Braun’s performance against Watson. Braun might end up as a bench player because of his suspect shooting. Watson has a much higher ceiling after draining 41.1% of his 3-pointers a year ago.

Keeler: The Kroenkes are playing the long game here, which is holding everything else up, and assuming everyone else is as scared of the second apron as they are. That makes sense and cents: , only seven NBA franchises as of Monday were projected to be $20 million or more below the second apron line ($221.69 million) while also not being hard-capped by the first apron ($209.02 million). The Lu Dort trade to Atlanta only makes Watson’s market for potential suitors smaller.

Renck: Agent Rich Paul is using every angle to create interest in his client. But with Lu Dort going to the Hawks, it appears the Clippers and Bucks are the only teams left who can realistically give Watson a hefty offer sheet for between $25 and $30 million. The Nuggets appear ready to match or call Paul’s bluff. I want Watson back, and would be willing to overspend. It also means trading Cam Johnson because there is no reason the Nuggets should become the only team to go into the second apron this season. Don’t like going big for Watson? Here’s what I like even less: executing a sign-and-trade for Watson for another vagabond player — the Nuggets have cornered the market on those this offseason — for draft picks to use when Jokic is in his mid-30s. I would rather risk whiffing on Watson than give Jokic a reason for leaving.

Keeler: Aren’t we looking at this backward, though? In terms of potential and upside, of course you’d be loco to try and move Watson now. But the reality is this: Of the new P-Swat, Cam and CB contracts, the Nuggets are only realistically keeping two of them so as to avoid that dreaded second salary-cap apron. If you want to make a “win-now” statement to Jokic, you keep everybody, eat the money and keep on trucking. But that’s not the KSE Way. So the premise becomes this: Which of those three could I leverage in a trade to get the most return back? Given Braun’s shooting and Cam’s ceiling, there’s only one answer. And it’s the awful, uncomfortable one.

But in Denver specifically, three roster spots remain vacant, and the specter of the second apron looms over the 12 spots that are occupied. Around the league, too, at least one major variable hasn’t been sorted out yet. Even commissioner Adam Silver joked about it during an event Thursday, acknowledging that “where LeBron plays will affect the schedule. I’d like him to make his announcement already so we can finish the schedule.”

And NBA beat writers around the country would like the teams they cover to get their business done already so everyone can leave on pre-planned vacations without needing to sweat.

This Nuggets beat writer will be doing just that, starting this weekend. So it seemed like a fun time to pretend the offseason is over, power-rank both conferences based on what’s happened so far, and then possibly return to this and laugh at it later. Where will James sign? Will the Nuggets make a trade? Will the Kawhi Leonard trade between the Clippers and Raptors go through or be revoked? Will restricted free agents like Jalen Duren, Peyton Watson, and Bennedict Mathurin reach agreements with their teams?

The idea of this list is to predict the final regular-season standings for the 2026-27 season — not to evaluate playoff or championship capability. Included in parentheses will be each team’s place last season.

Western Conference

This exercise should pretty quickly illuminate that, for the first time in years, the West is the weaker overall conference. That’s despite the fact that five of the top seven or eight players in the world reside on this side of the country. It certainly remains the top-heavy conference, carried by the two championship favorites. But after those two? A weird landscape, with strong potential for the same six playoff locks as last year.

1. San Antonio Spurs (2nd): Wemby has tasted the Finals, and they left behind a sour flavor. His first career MVP trophy feels imminent if he can play the requisite games. Tobias Harris was a solid free-agency addition, addressing a clear need. The West champs just got a little deeper.

2. Oklahoma City Thunder (1st): And the runners-up just got a little shallower. OKC’s summer has been highlighted by a pair of salary dumps from the back end of the roster. Without Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe, Sam Presti is leaning on his draft acumen to fill the gaps. He added Aday Mara to a loaded center depth chart and Bennett Stirtz to a formidable ball-handling hierarchy that already features SGA, Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell.

3. Minnesota Timberwolves (6th): Tim Connelly wasted no time breaking up the Julius Randle-Rudy Gobert frontcourt once he decided it had reached its ceiling. Trading for LaMelo Ball was the risk of the offseason in the West, but the carnivalesque point guard does raise that ceiling. Analytically (ducks), he’s one of the league’s best at elevating entire lineups. He and Ant-Man will be must-see TV.

4. Denver Nuggets (3rd): The Nuggets haven’t earned any benefit of the doubt against Minnesota specifically, so they’re sliding to fourth on this list via a forecasted head-to-head tiebreaker going against them. Their offseason may or may not have a few plot twists yet to come. Whatever happens, a healthy Nikola Jokic gives Denver one of the highest regular-season floors in the NBA.

5. Houston Rockets (5th): Their 2025-26 season was sort of a disaster, but the Rockets never really got a chance to see the team they had envisioned when they traded for Kevin Durant. Season-ending injuries to point guard Fred VanVleet and center Steven Adams took away massive parts of their identity. This is a sensible run-it-back team, especially if Reed Sheppard keeps developing and Ime Udoka learns to trust him more.

6. Los Angeles Lakers (4th): The only team you can definitively say will not be getting LeBron James. Nobody attempted a more dramatic supporting cast makeover this offseason. And the Lakers might not be better for it — even if they’re theoretically better designed in Luka Doncic’s image.

7. Portland Trail Blazers (7th): Damian Lillard and Ja Morant would’ve been the most fun backcourt in the league in 2023. In 2026, their partnership is the most questionable aspect of Portland’s starting lineup. Still, this is a deep roster with several enviable contracts and a few different guard combinations to try if Dame and Ja cause too many defensive headaches.

8. Utah Jazz (15th): Lauri Markkanen, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Walker Kessler were going to form one of the most fascinating frontcourts to watch in the entire league. Alas, Utah made a disciplined business decision to trade Kessler to Los Angeles. It was never meant to be. Jusuf Nurkic slots in as the starting center now. Not as fun. But the Jazz won’t be a walkover anymore. All eyes are on No. 2 pick Darryn Peterson.

9. Dallas Mavericks (12th): Cooper Flagg will have Dallas back in the playoff picture by the end of his rookie contract.

10. Golden State Warriors (10th): For those 24 glorious hours when everyone thought they were getting Anthony Davis and LeBron, the Warriors were maybe on the verge of top-six status.

11. Memphis Grizzlies (13th): The post-Ja era begins with an exciting trio of young talents in Cam Boozer, Zach Edey and Cedric Coward.

12. Phoenix Suns (8th): One of the pleasant surprises of last season is due for a step back. Who doesn’t want to watch Jalen Green and Miles Bridges trade shots?

13. Los Angeles Clippers (9th): The NBA’s longest active streak of consecutive winning seasons (15) should finally come to an end as the Clippers enter rebuild mode with a core of Darius Garland, rookie Keaton Wagler, Rui Hachimura and Brandon Ingram (pending that pesky Kawhi probe).

14. New Orleans Pelicans (11th): Maybe someday, the Pelicans will actually pull the trigger on a Trey Murphy III trade. He would be fun to watch on a relevant team.

15. Sacramento Kings (14th): Not much to say here, except that Darius Acuff Jr. might be a lot of fun.

Eastern Conference

Now, to the good stuff. The 2026-27 Eastern Conference has a chance to be one of the most fun regular-season playoff races in NBA history. Almost everyone is trying to win. Quite a few teams with high hopes will end up bitterly disappointed. First place and last place are the only two spots on this list that feel somewhat certain. The rest is a complete mess, in the best possible way.

1. New York Knicks (3rd): Mitchell Robinson’s departure sort of resembles Denver’s loss of Bruce Brown after winning the title. But when your championship tax is a bench player, your window is still wide open. The Knicks return a starting five that just posted a 12.5 playoff net rating.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers (2nd): This is without knowing if they’ll acquire a certain someone in free agency. Cleveland still has a strong infrastructure, even after that Eastern Conference Finals embarrassment. If Evan Mobley has another offensive leap in him, that could level the playing field with New York as much as LeBron could.

3. Philadelphia 76ers (7th): Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe and Jaylen Brown should provide enough firepower to carry the Sixers to a strong regular season even when Joel Embiid’s frequent injury absences are accounted for — even if there might not be enough collective durability to survive a two-month playoff run.

4. Indiana Pacers (14th): Maybe it’s unfair to Tyrese Haliburton to expect him to instantly relaunch this team to home-court advantage in the first round, when he’s fresh off not only a torn Achilles tendon but also a debilitating case of shingles. But whatever. The Pacers should be legit. Ivica Zubac and Kelly Oubre Jr. are interesting wrinkles from the 2025 Finals team.

5. Toronto Raptors (5th): That’s assuming that Kawhi Leonard is allowed to be a Toronto Raptor. With the blockbuster trade delayed as the NBA finishes its investigation of the Clippers for possible cap circumvention, Toronto is a contender in a holding pattern.

6. Boston Celtics (2nd): There’s a fair argument that even after the controversial Jaylen Brown trade, Boston’s 2026-27 rotation is better on paper than the 2025-26 roster that upended all expectations by earning the No. 2 seed. That Jayson Tatum, fully recovered now, is a better player than Brown, filling Brown’s shoes. That center Mitchell Robinson, when healthy, is an upgrade from Neemias Queta, who simply slides down the depth chart. That Paul George, for all the criticism his contract takes, is a vast improvement from starting Sam Hauser or Jordan Walsh. Nonetheless, the Celtics messed with their karmic balance by trading Brown for so little.

7. Detroit Pistons (1st): It wouldn’t be all that surprising if the Pistons have a late-summer move up their sleeve. Without one, their idleness sure looks like complacency. Detroit played hard enough to overcome its roster flaws and become an elite regular-season team last year. The East won’t be so forgiving this time around.

8. Orlando Magic (8th): The biggest change Orlando has made? Firing Jamahl Mosley and hiring Sean Sweeney. Maybe the cultural reset can yield results more on par with last year’s expectations, when the Magic entered the season as a top-three contender in the East. Or maybe its problems run a little deeper. This will be a consequential season in Orlando.

9. Miami Heat (9th): But Giannis! The Heat will have one of the most physically imposing front lines in the NBA with Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo and Andrew Wiggins. Maybe this placement is disrespectful toward Antetokounmpo, who’s more than capable of carrying a team to unexpected heights. But Miami’s roster still has a lot of question marks.

10. Atlanta Hawks (6th): In the absence of a significant move to upgrade their roster, the Hawks seem like they could be a victim of the conference getting better around them. They were an admirable No. 6 seed last season, taking a 2-1 series lead on the eventual champs in the first round. The roster’s ceiling just isn’t high enough with CJ McCollum, Jalen Johnson and Nickeil Alexander-Walker as the primary scoring threats.

11. Charlotte Hornets (9th): Pre-LaMelo trade, the Hornets would’ve been a trendy top-six pick. Now, they seem willing to dawdle around the back end of the Play-In Tournament for a little bit longer. Another team with a lot of like about it, but ultimately not enough shot creation.

12. Washington Wizards (15th): If Anthony Davis and Trae Young are healthy and bought in, there’s no reason the Wizards can’t be a Play-In team in AJ Dybantsa’s rookie campaign.

13. Brooklyn Nets (13th): Michael Porter Jr. and Julius Randle. League Pass darlings. The Nets won’t be good, but even they should be incentivized to try to win games, since they don’t have their own 2027 first-round pick.

14. Chicago Bulls (12th): No. 4 draft pick Caleb Wilson has been talking the talk at Summer League. It would be great news for the NBA if he can walk the walk and put Chicago back on the map.

15.��Milwaukee Bucks (11th): Worst team in the league, suddenly, and it might not be close.

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The only thing worse than losing Peyton Watson might be keeping him to go into the second apron.

Nobody loves spending owners’ money as much as I do, but why would the Kroenkes take a $177 million tax hit for this group?

It would be one thing if Denver reached the Western Conference Finals in May. They lost in the first round, pantsed in front of the world as soft, feeble and incapable of anger.

Bring back the same top six players and a compromised bench at “Price Is Right” inflation? Please tell me how it makes sense.

This offseason grows more infuriating and demoralizing by the day.

The NBA headlines remain filled with speculation about where James will sign — the Warriors, 76ers, Heat and Cavs appear in the mix — and the Nuggets are dropping social media posts about rotational players and draft picks.

The kind of guys who look good in the defense-free summer league. The kind of seasoned veterans who stand out in Europe. The kind of gypsies who widen eyes in workouts.

So instead of talking about championships and Nikola Jokic, we are left to talk about players who star in practice. Not a game. Practice. Sorry, AI, Chatbot, and whoever else was offended by this remark.

The Athletic recently released its letter grade evaluation of every team’s offseason. The Nuggets received a D-minus. That seems generous.

Tim Hardaway Jr., a cold-blooded 3-point shooter, left for Miami. Jonas Valanciunas was waived to create salary cap relief, signing with Zalgiris Kaunas, a Lithuanian club. Jalen Pickett was cut.

They have been replaced by backup wing Alpha Diallo, a projected versatile defender at all spots, reserve point guard Tyus Jones, bouncy draft pick Trevon Brazile and this year’s Gatorade break for Jokic, Marvin Bagley III.

Even if the Nuggets remain healthier after setting the single-season record for hamstring injuries, it is hard to see this team eclipsing the Spurs, Thunder, and Timberwolves.

Midway through July, the question hangs over Ball Arena like the Goodyear Blimp: What are the Nuggets doing?

Nuggets Nation, if my email and social media replies can be trusted, would rather keep Watson — to heck with frozen future draft picks and the repeater tax — than sign and trade him. Outside of those on the team payroll, nobody believes the Nuggets can win a championship.

It is more about wanting another strong regular season and accepting the poison pill of the playoffs over the alternative of an underwhelming regular season and an early playoff exit.

The evil of two lessers.

Sure. Whatever.

The reality is that the Nuggets have followed arguably their most humbling playoff elimination with a summer of confusion.

There have been reports that they have no spending limitations, and yet the American Express black card remains in their wallet.

There have been indications that they would prefer to avoid the repeater tax and the second apron. And yet, Cam Johnson remains on the roster, the most likely player to be moved to keep Watson.

These are competing agendas. Spend like on a Vegas bender. Or run the budget like clipping coupons. Both messages cannot be true.

Did the Nuggets leak their desire to spend to stay in the hunt for James? Perhaps. Did they do it to appease Jokic, who they believe will eventually sign a contract extension, even if his delay until next summer creates consternation? Maybe.

Did they do it to send a message to the rest of the league — most notably the Clippers, Hawks and Bucks — that they are prepared to match any offer sheet for Watson? Possibly.

Even if Brown and James were privately fever dreams, Watson is not. He is their guy. They know him. And letting a nimble, 23-year-old defender capable of creating his own shot walk out of the building runs contrary to everything Denver requires to remain a future contender.

The Nuggets need athletes, need the energy and enthusiasm the kid brings.

With the dots loosely connected, the latest sign-and-trade for Watson suggested the Nuggets could acquire the Clippers’ Derrick Jones Jr. and first-round draft picks in 2028 and 2031. That is actually a good haul for Watson, save for the fact that Jokic would be 34 when using the first pick and 37 when making the second.

So again, what are the Nuggets doing? Are they going for it? Or going young?

The mixed messages are harder to translate due to inactivity.

There are those who scream for patience, citing the Broncos. Remember when they did nothing during the first week of free agency before Sean Payton pointed his finger like Sophie Cunningham at critics, myself included, after acquiring electric receiver Jaylen Waddle?

Could this be the Nuggets’ play?

Sort of. Not really. Let’s be clear, keeping Watson is not the equivalent of trading for Waddle.

But maybe there is a big deal out there. As colleague Bennett Durando explained, Detroit, Orlando, Memphis and Golden State have also done little, and must meet roster requirements. Could one of these teams make an aggressive play for Johnson or even Jamal Murray, leaving plenty of room to keep Watson and kickstart the process of trending younger?

There has to be another move. Something. Anything.

Because what has happened so far is nothing short of discouraging and puzzling.

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