The Nuggets are a cat burglar’s dream team. They’ve completely forgotten how to shut the door, let alone lock the darn thing.
“This is a tough loss,” coach David Adelman told reporters after Cleveland escaped with a soul-crushing 119-117 win at Ball Arena late Monday.
“It’s one of those losses you’ll remember at the end of the year. (We) had control of the game. This happens in the NBA. I told them (in the locker room), ‘This stuff happens.’ We’ve won some games like this, where the other team’s looking back, going, ‘How did we lose that game?’ We found a way to not execute the last three minutes. And we have to be better.”
Especially in their backyard. Adelman’s crew is 14-11 at home with one game to go before a much-needed All-Star break. The Nuggets, who host Memphis on Wednesday night, have dropped six of their last 10 at Chopper Circle dating back to January 9. They’re on a pace for a 23-18 home record, which would be the franchise’s worst mark at Ball since 2021-22.
Remember the spring of ’22? Ah, yes. The tail end of an up-and-down season marked by key injuries to foundational players — kinda like this one, now that you mention it. Jamal Murray missed the entire campaign rehabbing his knee; Michael Porter Jr. played nine games, got hurt, and was shelved for the next five months. By the time the postseason rolled around, it was Nikola Jokic, Aaron Gordon and Boogie Cousins up front, and the last gasps of Will Barton and Monte Morris wearing Nuggets blue.
Denver limped into the playoffs as a 6 seed and was summarily dispatched by Steph Curry and Golden State, the eventual champs, over five games in the first round. It would get better. A lot better. But not until the Nuggets’ “Core Four” of Joker, Gordon, Murray and MPJ were finally reunited.
It’s too early to be panicked by the Nuggets losing their clutch gene at home. But history also tells us that, if they don’t pick it up after the break, it’s definitely not too early to be worried.
If 11 home losses by early February feels like an awful lot for a title contender, you’re absolutely right. Since 2005-06, only five of the last 20 Western Conference champions lost more than 10 home games during the regular season.
And only one of those — the 2023-24 Mavericks — lost more than 12 (25-16). The last NBA champ with 11 or more home defeats during the regular season was Golden State in ’17-18 (12 losses).
The Nuggets lost 15 at home during the entire ’24-25 regular season. They were 33-8 in ’23-24. They went 34-7 in ’22-23 as a prelude to that title run. Over Denver’s NBA history, only one Nuggets team that lost 13 or more home games during the regular season eventually got past the first round of the NBA playoffs — Dan Issel’s legendary ’93-94 No. 8 seed (28-13).
These Nuggets could sure use a stopper in the mold of the late, great Dikembe Mutombo. Jokic is the NBA MVP, the best pure hoopster on the planet. But Gordon is looking more and more like the most pivotal piece to the Nuggets’ title puzzle, especially on defense.
Over the last seven years or so, no duo in The Association has closed out tight games the way Joker and Murray could in crunch time. Yet according to NBA.com’s advanced statistics, that magic has been gone, baby gone of late.
In home games decided by five points or fewer, the Nuggets have a Net Rating of minus-5.1 points per 100 possessions. They’re scoring an NBA-best 138.2 points per 100 in those final three minutes. They’re also giving up a league-worst 143.8 points per 100 over those 180 seconds. Any stop.
Context: A year ago, the Nuggets were a plus-3.1 in those last three minutes of close home games, with a 116.7 Offensive Rating and a 113.6 Defensive Rating. In ’22-23, the eventual champs over the final three minutes of tight games put up a Net Rating of plus-31.6, an Offensive Rating of 118.4 and a Defensive Rating of 86.8.
The Nuggets of three seasons ago finished guests off without a shred of mercy. The current crop, by contrast, has been begging visitors to crawl back into the light.
Charlotte won here for the first time in December 2021. Atlanta won here for the first time since November 2019. Detroit won at Ball for just the third time in 14 years. Is this just the usual lurch into the All-Star Break, a comical stretch of lousy basketball karma … or something else?
“I don’t know. I think we lost a couple close ones at home …” Jokic told reporters Monday night. “But belief we can win a game? I don’t know. I don’t know what’s the answer.”
He’s got time. So does Adelman. But those who don’t learn from history are too often doomed to repeat it.
