Darnold, of course, was picked No. 3 overall in the 2018 draft by the New York Jets. He flamed out there, then started a journey that featured stops and starts, more downs than ups and, eventually, a fast rise at Minnesota, a $100 million deal in Seattle and, in his first year starting for the Seahawks, a world championship.

Darnold is one of several quarterbacks in the NFL who has had to take the long route to being a coveted starter. Baker Mayfield went through the same thing. Jared Goff nearly won a Super Bowl in Los Angeles only to be dumped by the Rams to Detroit. Daniel Jones was putting together a great year last year — his first in seven seasons — before an injury cut his Indianapolis debut short.

Overall, though, winning a Super Bowl in the past decade-plus in the NFL has been the province of surefire Hall of Famers. Before the Seahawks, nine of the previous 11 Super Bowls had been won by Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Matthew Stafford. The other two belong to the Eagles: The Nick Foles miracle run in 2017 and Jalen Hurts in 2024.

Of course, any team would take a future Hall of Famer at quarterback, but one interesting element here: For as much as the prevailing wisdom is that quarterbacks on a cheap, rookie contract are the key to building a championship-caliber team, the only quarterbacks since 2013 to win a Super Bowl while actually playing on their rookie deal are Russell Wilson (2013 for Seattle) and Mahomes in 2019.

Mahomes’ and Brady’s dominance have a lot to do with that stat, but perhaps it����ap telling nonetheless.

While they haven’t won many titles, rookie-contract quarterbacks still have appeared in the Super Bowl frequently. Wilson made it back in 2014. Since 2018, the losing Super Bowl quarterback has been on his rookie deal six of eight years, with Mahomes holding the two exceptions in 2020 and 2024. Otherwise, the list goes Goff (2018), Jimmy Garoppolo (2019), Joe Burrow (2021), Hurts (2022), Brock Purdy (2023) and Drake Maye last year.

Of the 26 quarterbacks to start a Super Bowl in the past 13 years, 12 have accounted for 5.2% of his team’s cap that year or less. That includes the past two winners in Darnold and Hurts.

Could a quarterback on a rookie deal break through this year and win a Super Bowl? The 2024 draft class, which becomes extension-eligible after this season, looks like a decent bet. After all, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Maye and Denver’s Bo Nix have already won division titles in their first two seasons. Maye’s played in a Super Bowl, while Daniels and Nix have come within a game.

The list of quarterbacks good enough to take up double-digit percentage of a team’s salary cap has been short over the past decade-plus. Mahomes winning two in Kansas City while taking up 17% of the Chiefs’ cap space stands as a substantial outlier.

Of course, teams are adept at suppressing the cap hit for a player long after he signs an extension, but the bill comes due at some point. So, the most efficient way is to strike while the iron is hot and the signal-caller is cheap.

QBs in the Super Bowl since 2013

* Cap data via OvertheCap

The 2024 QB class through two years

Not the Super Bowl champs? Well, the Rams were already loaded. Then they traded for Myles Garrett, too. They should be a freight train.

2. Seattle Seahawks

Mike MacDonald’s team will have a ring ceremony at some point and they might not even be the favorites in their own division. Welcome to the NFC West!

3. Denver Broncos

A lofty position for Sean Payton’s team, but they’ve got continuity, they added Jaylen Waddle and Bo Nix is heading into a critical Year 3.

4. Buffalo Bills

Could this, at long last, finally be Josh Allen’s year? He was foiled at Empower Field back in January, but he’ll have a squad again this fall.

5. New England Patriots

Drake Maye and Co. took full advantage of a strange year and played in a Super Bowl … well, technically. A complete team in Year 2 under coach Mike Vrabel.

6. Baltimore Ravens

The bet here is that former Payton acolyte Declan Doyle will be good for Lamar Jackson, and that Jesse Minter will be an instant success as a head coach. They’ll be fun.

7. Philadelphia Eagles

Starting in 2022, the Eagles have won 14, 11, 14, and 11 games. You know what that means. Fourteen big ones inbound for Nick Sirianni’s team.

8. San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers went from afterthought to nearly capturing the No. 1 seed in the NFC last year. If they can stay healthy, they’ll be a force. Been a big if recently.

9. Los Angeles Chargers

The Mike McDonald and Justin Herbert pairing is one of the NFL’s most fascinating. If Herbert gets comfy, it can be a scary offense.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jags got hot last year and won the division. Imagine how much fun they’d have been with a healthy Travis Hunter. Hopefully 2026 is the year.

11. Chicago Bears

Caleb Williams started to look like a star in the making under coach Ben Johnson. The Bears are really back… and apparently moving to Indiana as well. The only explanation: Duh Bears!

12. Detroit Lions

The Lions went from Johnson to John Morton at OC. It… didn’t work. Drew Petzing should be a good fit for Jared Goff and Co., but Detroit����ap got to play defense, too, in a tough division.

13. Houston Texans

The Texans have perhaps the scariest defense in the NFL. They are an absolute hurricane under DeMeco Ryans. If C.J. Stroud finds his form, this will be an under-ranking.

14. Green Bay Packers

The Packers flamed out again, then extended everybody. At times, Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love look like a Super Bowl waiting to happen. Sometimes.

15. Dallas Cowboys

We know the Cowboys will score with Dak Prescott and those receivers. If former Denver assistant Christian Parker gets the defense straightened out, look out.

16. Kansas City Chiefs

This is destined to be a hilarious under-ranking if Patrick Mahomes quickly returns to form. He probably will. But, for now, questions abound around the all-timer under center.

17. Cincinnati Bengals

Every season Joe Burrow has played 16 or more regular season games, he’s thrown for at least 4,475 yards and 34 touchdowns. Let����ap do that again.

18. Washington Commanders

This team went to the NFC Championship Game in 2024, then Jayden Daniels’ follow-up season was scuttled by injuries. Here’s hoping for a healthy Year 3.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bucs will get great play from Baker Mayfield, have weeks where they look like one of the best offenses on the planet and somehow end up 7-8 but in the hunt for the NFC South.

20. Carolina Panthers

Basically the same as above, but just not quite as good at quarterback. Bryce Young, though, has a division title under his belt and a chance to repeat.

21. Indianapolis Colts

Daniel Jones is supposedly going to be healthy at the start or early in the season. That����ap good. Probably. This team was so fun for the first half of 2025.

22. Pittsburgh Steelers

If nothing else, the Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers reunion will be tremendous theater. What if they actually make one more run together?

23. Minnesota Vikings

What a calamity for Minnesota to let Sam Darnold go after a terrific 2024. Now they’ve got a Kyler Murray/J.J. McCarthy situation that feels like a Kevin O’Connell cry for help.

24. New Orleans Saints

The Saints can win the NFC South. That����ap in part because it����ap a bad division but also because Tyler Shough has juice and New Orleans was cooking down the stretch last year.

25. New York Giants

John Harbaugh should bring some instant calm and respectability to the Giants. If he can get Jaxson Dart to take another step, the G-Men will have a bright future.

26. Atlanta Falcons

Kevin Stefanski and Matt Ryan are the new braintrust in Atlanta, but the Falcons have questions at QB and around the roster. They’re quite a way away.

27. Tennessee Titans

Titans Cam Ward did some good things as a rookie and clearly has some moxy to his game. Now, can Robert Saleh help build the rest of it around the young QB?

28. Las Vegas Raiders

No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza (eventually) has fun weapons in Brock Bowers and Ashton Jeanty. Klint Kubiak is a talented offensive coach. It����ap going to take longer than a year.

29. New York Jets

Former Broncos asst. GM Darren Mougey has been wheeling and dealing. They’ve got troves of premium picks the next couple years. It’ll be fun. But those picks can’t play in 2026.

30. Cleveland Browns

Deshaun Watson said recently he’d be open to an extension in Cleveland. That����ap nice. Here’s betting the Browns think $230 million for nine wins (so far) will have been plenty.

31. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals all the way through the coaching carousel this winter felt a bit like they had nowhere to turn. Eventually it was to Dial-A-McVay Assistant. Or, er, Mike LaFleur.

32. Miami Dolphins

Give the Dolphins credit for going all in on the teardown. But they’re paying $112 million to players on the team and charging $179 million in cap space to players who aren’t.

Detroit Lions

BetMGM says: Win Super Bowl: 18-1; Over-under win total: 10.5

Strengths: Scoring points. Sure, 2025 was a massive disappointment, and the offensive line has required some reassembly since then, and the luxury of RB2 David Montgomery is no more. But new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing is still inheriting a unit that features Jared Goff throwing to Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and tight end Sam LaPorta, when Jahmyr Gibbs isn’t tearing up defenses on the ground. Detroit has more than enough weapons to bounce back from a 9-8 season that was considered substandard for this era of the team.

Weaknesses: Both of Detroit’s starting safeties are question marks from a health standpoint. Meanwhile, potential starting cornerback Terrion Arnold was released this offseason while facing armed robbery and kidnapping charges in Florida, causing ripple effects down the depth chart. This is shaping up to be a wobbly secondary again, unless the Lions can eventually add help. For starters, it would help if they were blessed with better injury luck this year.

Green Bay Packers

BetMGM says: Win Super Bowl: 20-1; Over-under win total: 9.5

Strengths: Jordan Love and Josh Jacobs form one of the NFL’s most talented quarterback-running back tandems, with Love coming off a strong year. Xavier McKinney anchors a strong secondary as one of the league’s most impactful safeties. Tight end Tucker Kraft is reportedly on track to start opening week as he finishes up ACL rehab. Green Bay has dynamic, young players on both sides of the ball.

Weaknesses: On Dec. 14, 2025, in Denver, the Packers were riding high, off to a 9-3-1 start to the season and carrying a 23-14 third-quarter lead over the top seed in the AFC. Then, in about an hour, Micah Parsons tore his ACL, the Broncos stormed back for a 34-26 win, and the foundations crumbled in Green Bay. The Packers didn’t win another game. Parsons’ timeline is unclear entering the season, but he’s bound to miss at least a few weeks. Green Bay’s pass rush could be woeful without the star edge rusher.

Chicago Bears

BetMGM says: Win Super Bowl: 25-1; Over-under win total: 9.5

Strengths: The Bears emerged as a surprise playoff team and one of the most compelling stories of the 2025 season thanks to a few key ingredients: a superb offensive line; a sophomore quarterback defiant against the notion that he’d been the wrong No. 1 overall pick in his draft class; a first-time head coach who wanted all the smoke; and pixie dust. The O-line should be stout again. If Caleb Williams has another proper leap in him, he can transcend all other variables.

Weaknesses: It’s rather easy to poke holes in the Bears’ infrastructure. They’re due for a regression to the mean in takeaways after they benefited from a league-leading 33 last season, masking a shaky defense that hasn’t meaningfully improved on paper. They trailed after the two-minute warning in seven of their 12 wins. Their quarterback completed only 58.1% of his passes despite the dazzling highlights and clutch touchdown throws, and now his leading wide receiver is in Buffalo. If Ben Johnson can coach Chicago to a second straight division crown, it would be quite a feat.

Minnesota Vikings

BetMGM says: Win Super Bowl: 50-1; Over-under win total: 8.5

Strengths: Justin Jefferson’s down year was largely a product of Minnesota’s dismal play at quarterback. Now that Kyler Murray has joined the mix to compete with JJ McCarthy on a one-year prove-it deal, the electrifying Vikings receiver should have more opportunities to make plays downfield. Murray also provides coach Kevin O’Connell with a more versatile option for play-calling purposes.

Weaknesses: Minnesota’s offensive and defensive lines could struggle this season. That’s never a great recipe. If the Vikings can’t establish any run game — they don’t have much firepower in the backfield, either — that might place too much pressure on whoever prevails in the quarterback competition.

Josh Bulla has known Stidham since elementary school in Stephensville, Texas, when a young Bulla first noticed the kid who was a foot taller than everyone else. From that point, Bulla said, Stidham always knew he was headed for some greater destiny. Milestones came and went: he played college football at Baylor and Auburn, where he was a two-year starter , and got drafted by the Patriots in the fourth round in 2019. The final goal — become an NFL starting quarterback — came again on the night of Jan. 18, 2026.

Just not like this, Stidham told Bulla.

He’d gotten his chances before. Two starts in 2022, when the Raiders benched Derek Carr. Two starts in 2023, when the Broncos benched Russell Wilson. Those were exciting. But Bo Nix breaking his ankle Saturday night, as Stidham told Bulla, was “gutting.”

“The first thing that came to mind,” Stidham said, as Bulla recalled, “was, ‘No.'”

“Like, this is Bo’s show.”

Over the past two years, Bo and Izzy Nix have become “like family” to Stidham and his wife, Kennedy, Bulla said. Nix’s second-year run ended shockingly after a divisional-round win over the Bills, and the emotions Stidham felt extend much deeper than his mentorship in Denver. In Stidham’s two years starting at Auburn, from 2017-18, .

It began as simple program ambassadorship, then-Auburn OC Chip Lindsay remembered. Stidham would talk to Nix and host him on visits. Eventually, though, Stidham started asking Lindsay how Nix did in his high school games. He knew that Nix was his successor, former Auburn wideout Ryan Davis recalled.

“Jarrett was basically, like, giving him the keys,” Davis said.

Seven years later, Nix is giving them back. — Nix’s first public statement since breaking his ankle — the Broncos’ starting QB offered a hat-tip, saying he “couldn’t be more confident in Jarrett.” Denver’s season now lies in the hands of Stidham, a career backup who has started four career games in six NFL seasons and hasn’t thrown a regular-season pass in two years.

Across this week’s preparation for the Patriots in Sunday’s AFC championship, Denver’s locker room has heaped praise on Stidham to anyone with a microphone. They have no other choice.

“He’s going to rip it,” head coach Sean Payton said Wednesday. “And that will be our approach.”

In Year 2 in Denver, Nix and Payton found synergy as the second-year quarterback praised Payton for letting him be his “authentic self.” These Broncos formed an identity around Nix, a fiery 25-year-old whose white-hot competitiveness fueled a season of second-half comebacks. They are now rallying around Stidham, a cool 29-year-old whose serenity masks his own fire.

Stidham has kept the same routine for three years in Denver, left tackle Garett Bolles said. He eats the same food. He drinks the same water. He hits the steam room at the same time. He listens to the same music, on a Turtlebox waterproof speaker that he affectionately refers to as “Mr. Turtle.”

Nothing has changed in this week of madness. Stidham is who he is because he knows who he is. That is comfort, as these Broncos head into a war.

“He got some swag,” Bolles said Thursday. “He got some swag to him. So, that fuels us all.”

…
In 2023, 6-foot-4 safety JL Skinner arrived in Denver as a raw sixth-round pick out of Boise State. He took plenty of flak from Stidham, who’d just signed as a free agent and who had no more experience in Denver than Skinner.

Stidham wanted Skinner to be better. And he let him know about it. The QB chirped at him in practice.

“JL, what are you doing? What are you doing?”

“I’m like, ‘Man, (expletive) this guy,'” Skinner said Thursday.

“And then in my head,I’m like, (expletive), he’s actually throwing that ball right over my head, too. I gotta do something about it.”

He was born with that. The now 6-foot-3 Stidham played offensive line in Pee Wee football in Weatherford, Texas, because he was tall. Future high school coach Joe Gillespie introduced him to former SMU quarterback Kelan Luker for some training in middle school. The first time Luker worked with Stidham, he walked out to a field, saw him throw a few balls, and noticed the kid never missed.

Stidham had never played quarterback before. To this day, Luker maintains he never really taught him anything over the course of a few years.

“I think what really happened – he was so talented, he could just watch what I did,” Luker said, “and he could imitate.”

In Denver, QB3-turned-QB2 Sam Ehlinger notes that Stidham’s ball “spins really pretty.” The RPMs came naturally. So did unassuming athleticism, a trait that most every teammate or coach notes about Stidham.  Underneath six years of backup life in the NFL is years of life as a five-star gem, the No. 1-ranked dual-threat quarterback in the class of 2015 (above Kyler Murray, Sam Bradford and Joe Burrow).

“He’s just one of those West Texas boys who grew up spinnin’ it,” said Jordan Palmer, a former NFL quarterback who’s long worked with Stidham and .

After two years at Auburn, Stidham arrived in New England in 2019. It was Tom Brady’s last year; the Patriots were treating Stidham as “the next guy,” as Davis said, a former Auburn receiver who spent six months in New England’s training camp in 2019. Stidham picked Brady’s brain, and Brady once left three of his custom hoodies as a gift in Stidham’s locker. But the Patriots brought in former MVP Cam Newton two weeks before training camp the next year in 2020, and drafted Mac Jones in the first round in 2021, and shipped Stidham to Las Vegas in 2022 without ever starting him in a game.

Old habits die hard, Bulla recalled. Stidham grew up as the guy. He never stopped believing he could be. After signing in Denver, he got a taste of it late in 2023, when the Broncos benched Wilson. He lost the starting job to rookie Nix in 2024. Bulla asked Stidham how he was feeling heading into training camp this past summer, wedged squarely behind a young franchise face.

“He’s like, ‘It����ap the NFL,'” Bulla said . “‘Everyone’s talented. Crazy things can happen. And I still have to act the way I always have, and that I want to be the starter.'”

…
In December 2017, Carson Wentz tore his ACL, and the 11-2 Philadelphia Eagles had to recalibrate around backup quarterback Nick Foles. Offensive coordinator Frank Reich set about watching the “Foles highlight reel,” as he dubbed it — cut-ups of every single Foles completion from five previous NFL seasons. He sat with Foles and had the quarterback walk him through some preferred concepts: a few post routes here, a deep ball there.

Outside the Xs and Os, though, Reich and the rest of the Eagles’ staff didn’t do much to try to control messaging to the team. They let Foles roam free as a personality. And Foles — whose confidence earned him a provocative — became legend across a Super Bowl run in the weeks to follow.

“If you’re trying to cover up what you perceive as some weakness, some leadership weakness of the backup quarterback, then you’re in trouble,” Reich said.

Reich, a former quarterback himself who once stepped in as a backup to Jim Kelly for multiple Buffalo Bills playoff runs in the 1990s, has taken an interest in Stidham’s particular situation in Denver. He’s watched clips of his interviews. He’s detected moxie.

“It seems like the kid’s a winner,” Reich said. “Like, he’s a winner. And everybody knows it.”

Emotion crested and fell in Denver in the span of a single hour after the Broncos’ 33-30 overtime win over Buffalo. Sean Payton went to a podium in street clothes, told reporters Nix was out for the season with a fractured ankle, and the Broncos’ locker room came away as stunned as the rest of the world. Offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi found out from his son, driving home from the stadium. Receiver Courtland Sutton literally didn’t believe it was true.

Utter chaos has swirled around Stidham in the days since. The Copelands were deep in the woods of West Texas on a hunting trip, cracking open a few Coors Originals and playing cards, when they got the news he was starting. Friends have let Stidham know they’ll make it to Denver in any way possible for Sunday’s game. An entire fanbase has turned its social-media avatars to pictures of Stidham in a strange form of solidarity. This shot is “everything he’s ever dreamed for,” Bulla said.

Stidham has yet to flinch, in public or private.

“Is he getting sleep this week? I don’t know,” said Brian Hoyer, a longtime NFL backup who was with Stidham in New England in 2020 and 2021. “I talked to him (Tuesday). And either it hasn’t hit him yet and he doesn’t have any words, or he hid it really well.”

There is a “calmness” about Stidham, Payton said on Wednesday. There always has been. The most worked-up Bulla has ever seen Stidham — in a circumstance not involving family or football — was when Bulla pranked Stidham in high school by hotwiring his beat-up 1995 Chevy Silverado and hiding it in a different parking lot. On-field mistakes have always brought the same reaction, Palmer described: Aw, shucks, and move on.

These days, Stidham carries that “Mr. Turtle” speaker into the team shower on the daily, blasting an assortment of Kate Bush and Fleetwood Mac and country tunes. He has a rookie football card of cornerback Riley Moss pinned to the front of his locker, for some reason. He wore a full-body lion costume to the Broncos’ Halloween party in October.

“Every time I see him,” practice-squad receiver Elijah Moore said, “he’s playing music. I guess he’s just got the vibes on him. I love that.”

Stidham did not always present this way. Take it from Washington head coach Jedd Fisch, who coached New England’s quarterbacks in 2020.

“Really?” Fisch said, told the tale of Mr. Turtle. “He wasn’t like that. Yeah, I don’t remember. Maybe it����ap because we were in the middle of COVID … I would not have guessed that one.”

The years have brought Stidham’s self-awareness outward, as he’s moved into a comfortable stage of life. Stidham and wife, Kennedy, welcomed their third child in October. When he and Bulla catch up these days, they spend roughly two minutes talking football and the rest figuring out “what the hell” to do in fatherhood, as Bulla put it.

“I see a direct correlation,” Palmer said. “When people have their personal lives figured out and then get put into the spotlight on a big stage, I see that go better for the guys that have their lives figured out …. I would say Jarrett’s about as stable as it gets, for a guy his age.

“There’s no reason to change,” Palmer continued. “There’s no reason to do it different. So I’m sure that Jarrett is going into this weekend with a lot of confidence that – he is enough.”

…
Sean Payton, Skinner said, does not keep “bums” on his roster. Backups. Practice squad. Doesn’t matter.

Stidham was one of Payton’s first signings upon arriving in Denver in 2023, even as the Broncos already had Wilson. The organization made it a priority to bring Stidham back this past free agency, on a two-year deal worth $12 million. The money signals trust around the league. Moore — a 25-year-old receiver who’s now been on four NFL teams — said he’s heard of Stidham’s reputation in the past, before signing with the Broncos a month ago.

“Stiddy got signed back-to-back-to-back for a long time now,” Skinner said at his locker Thursday. “And nobody knows why, from the outside. But we know why, from the inside. Because that mother(expletive) can throw that goddamn rock.”

Payton believes Stidham’s inside the 32 best quarterbacks in the NFL. So does Patriots defensive play-caller Zak Kuhr, that Stidham “could be a starter for a number of teams.” Stidham’s arm talent and sneaky mobility aren’t in question: quietly, he ran for a combined 84 yards in two starts for the Raiders in 2022.

Sean Payton called Jarrett Stidham a "real good foot athlete" today. Of note: Stidham ran for a combined 84 yards in the first two starts of his career with Las Vegas in '22.

Here's a first-down scramble against a top defense in the 49ers in '22. Plus a ball-flick celebration.

— Luca Evans (@bylucaevans)

The major issue, heading into Sunday’s conference championship, is whether Stidham has enough between the ears to handle the “kitchen sink” that the Patriots’ defense throws at opposing quarterbacks, as Hoyer described. Under Kuhr, a swarming New England attack stumped Los Angeles’s Justin Herbert in the wild-card round and picked off Houston’s C.J. Stroud four times in the divisional round.

“They’re going to bring a lot of (expletive), and that����ap where he has to rely on Sean Payton, and the preparation, and I’m sure there’s gonna be a lot of checks and – ‘When you see this look, you gotta get into this play or change the protection,’” Hoyer said.

The counter-move is that New England has no shred of Broncos tape on hand to prepare for Stidham. So, how does Denver design a gameplan around him in the span of a week?

Payton has made clear he sees Nix and Stidham as two different styles of quarterbacks. Others disagree. Stidham spent much of 2020 with Fisch studying tape of Jared Goff, and San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo, and quarterbacks in West Coast systems with plenty of under-center looks. This Denver offense has shifted more in that direction across the second half of 2025, and Palmer and Hoyer don’t see Payton’s established system needing to change much from Nix to Stidham.

“When they can run the ball and throw the play-action game, he can reach anywhere on the field with the ball,” former Auburn OC Lindsey said. “And try to create some explosives off play-action – that would be the first thing that would come to my mind.”

On one hand, Stidham’s in a position where three weeks and a Super Bowl ring would forever change his life, Bulla said. On the other hand, friends and confidants don’t see Stidham stretching himself much for Sunday. Quarterbacks who finally receive their shot, as Palmer said, generally fall into one of two mental buckets. Some hope it’ll go well. Some think it should go well.

Stidham feels, Palmer said, that he should play well.

“When we win that game,” Skinner said, “what they gon’ say now? What they’ gon say now, you know what I mean. They gon’ say — ‘Stiddy this. Stiddy that.’

“Stiddy gon’ get a brand-new contract off this, bro,” he continued. “That����ap how I’m looking at it, man. We riding out with Stiddy.”

Run coming? Don’t look now, but Lamar Jackson is healthy and the Ravens have tripled their win total in the past five days. Sure, the victories came against Chicago and Miami. And yeah, John Harbaugh’s team is still just 3-5. But if Pittsburgh loses Sunday to 7-1 Indianapolis, the Ravens are going to find themselves just a game out of first place in the AFC North with both games against the Steelers still ahead. Baltimore’s next four before taking on Aaron Rodgers and company: at Minnesota and Cleveland, then home against the New York Jets and Cincinnati. That’s a chance to make a run.

Pair of Jokers. The Colts’ offensive explosion has been remarkable, and QB Daniel Jones rightfully gets a lot of attention. But find a better pair of weapons than Jonathan Taylor and rookie TE Tyler Warren. Taylor’s on pace for 2,200 total offensive yards and 30 (!!) touchdowns. Warren, meanwhile, arrived as the No. 14 pick and currently ranks first among NFL tight ends in yards (492), 20-plus-yard catches (8) and first downs (25). These guys aren’t just good. They’re set up to be dangerous for years to come.

It����ap a Revolution. Speaking of… the Patriots are 6-2, have reeled off five straight wins, Drake Maye’s taken a star turn in Year 2 and it doesn’t look like smoke and mirrors. Mike Vrabel’s team has the second-best scoring differential (+67) in football behind only the Colts. The team also already has a win in hand at Buffalo (5-2). Here are the Patriots’ opponents before those teams meet again Dec. 14: Atlanta on Sunday, at Tampa, N.Y. Jets, at Cincinnati and the N.Y. Giants.

Around the NFC

All you need is… Jordan Love is up to second in the NFL in EPA per dropback, behind only Indy’s Daniel Jones. He put on a clinic Sunday night against predecessor Aaron Rodgers and has the Packers sitting at 5-1-1. If the playoffs started today, they’d be the No. 1 seed in the NFC. They’re big favorites vs. Carolina on Sunday, then have a massive Monday Night game at home vs. Philly.

PNW power. If you’re counting Super Bowl contenders in the NFC, the list doesn’t get long before Seattle. Second-year coach Mike MacDonald has a squad. The defense is legit, and Sam Darnold is engineering an offense that continues to get the job done. They’re a real factor in what����ap shaping up to be among the NFL’s best divisions. Tough trip east to Washington for Sunday Night Football this weekend.

Aw, Shoughs. The listless New Orleans Saints are rolling with second-round rookie Tyler Shough at quarterback after benching Spencer Rattler. It’s a tough enough test this weekend on the road against the Rams, and it won’t do Shough much good at this point if Mickey Loomis starts dealing away offensive pieces ahead of Tuesday’s deadline, but that����ap life when you’re 1-7. Time to get a look, though, as this team will be drafting high — very high — in the spring of 2026.

Game of the Week

Kansas City at Buffalo

Any time Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes square off, it����ap must-see television. If the Bills are going to win, they’d do well to lean on James Cook, who is coming off a 216-yard romp over Carolina and is now averaging 6.0 yards per carry for the year. But the Chiefs are hot even by recent-year Chiefs standards. They’ve put 28-plus on the board in five straight games and have only looked more explosive since getting Rashee Rice back in the lineup. In the receiver’s two games since returning from a six-game suspension, the Chiefs have outscored Vegas and Washington 59-7, and Mahomes has thrown six touchdowns. Half have gone to Rice, who already has 13 catches for 135 yards. A fourth straight win and then a bye before a monster game at Empower Field on Nov. 16 feels right.

Chiefs 31, Bills 29

Lock of the Week

Minnesota at Detroit

The Vikings’ quarterback issues remain, and Kevin O’Connell now must give J.J. McCarthy a good, long look the rest of the year. In Detroit, meanwhile, Jared Goff is playing terrific football. The work week started for the Lions by giving a four-year, $180 million whopper of an extension to star Aidan Hutchinson. That����ap two $45-plus million pass-rushers in the same division with him and Green Bay’s Micah Parsons. Hutchinson’s off to a monster start after a broken leg marred his 2024. Good luck, McCarthy. The Lions are 9.5-point favorites, not the biggest line of the week — the Packers and Rams at home against Carolina and New Orleans, respectively, are bigger favorites — but this feels like a matchup of teams going in opposite directions.

Lions 28, Vikings 17

Upset of the Week

Chicago at Cincinnati

Welcome to the Bad Loss Bowl. The Bears might have had the worst loss of Week 8 — against a reeling, Lamar Jackson-less Ravens team. Except then the Bengals allowed the winless New York Jets to put 39 points on the board and notch their first win, 39-38. Now the Bengals could be without new old quarterback Joe Flacco and back to Jake Browning. But who can trust Ben Johnson’s team at this point? The 2.5-point road favorites look like they’ve made real progress, but then step back. Similar to the play of their second-year quarterback, Caleb Williams. The Bears should win this game, especially if Flacco doesn’t play. It should be a get-right game for Williams against a defense that’s really struggled. We’ll see.

Bengals 24, Bears 23

He turned it down.

Clearly, he was not out of breath.

Gibbs scored on a long sprint in the second quarter, a 5-yard spinning plunge in the third and accounted for a career-high 218 yards from scrimmage to lead the in a 24-9 win over the on Monday night.

“You felt like this was coming,” Detroit coach Dan Campbell said. “This has been building.”

The Lions (5-2) bounced back from a loss as they have done flawlessly for nearly three years, extending their NFL-long streak of 51 games without dropping two straight in the regular season.

“The guys responded, which I knew they would,” Campbell said.

Tampa Bay (5-2) was outgained by more than 200 yards in the first half, but trailed 14-3 because Detroit had an interception, fumble, turned it over on downs and missed a field goal.

Rookie Tez Johnson had a 22-yard touchdown reception to open the second half, pulling the Bucs within five points, but they could not slow down Gibbs.

On the ensuing drive, Gibbs had a 15-yard run and a 28-yard reception to set up his second touchdown that gave the Lions a 21-9 lead late in the third quarter.

The third-year running back finished with a season-high 136 yards rushing on 17 carries and a season-high 82 yards receiving on three catches, giving him a total that trails just four performances for the franchise this century.

Gibbs is the first NFL player with at least 135 yards rushing and 80 yards receiving along with two scores on the ground since Chris Johnson pulled off the feat with Tennessee in 2009.

“He’s a very talented running back and when you miss a gap, he can turn it into a big play,” Bucs coach Todd Bowles said.

Detroit����ap Jared Goff was 20 of 29 for 241 yards with a 27-yard touchdown pass to Amon-Ra St. Brown on the game’s opening drive. Goff, though, lost a fumble and overthrew rookie receiver Isaac TeSlaa on fourth-and-2 on the next two possessions and later threw an interception — all in Tampa Bay territory.

Baker Mayfield was 28 of 50 for 228 yards with one touchdown and one interception against a short-handed defense. Mayfield threw an incomplete pass in the end zone with 4:24 left, ending potential comeback hopes.

“As a skill group, we didn’t connect on a lot of plays,” Mayfield said. “Once the defense knows we are going to have to pass, they can pin their ears back. That����ap not a fair situation to the offensive line.”

Gibbs took advantage of a big hole and his speed to score on a careerlong, 78-yard run late in the second quarter to put Detroit ahead 14-0.

“If you can get him to second level, he can do the rest,” Campbell said.

After Detroit����ap Jake Bates missed a 54-yard field goal, Chase McLaughlin made a 53-yard field goal to end the half and put the Bucs on the scoreboard.

Bates did connect on a 58-yard field goal early in the fourth, knocking it in off an upright, to give the Lions a 24-9 lead.

“They are a tough matchup for every team right now,” Bowles said. “We know about the loud crowd. We just didn’t execute, but they played a very good game.”

Prime time

The Lions are 13-3 in night games under Campbell and they’ve won five straight on Monday Night Football.

Injuries

Bucs: WR (concussion, broken collarbone) lasted less than a half after returning from a three-game absence due to a hamstring injury.

“He’s going to be gone until toward the last of the season,” Bowles said.

OLB Haason Reddick (knee, ankle) left the game in the second half.

Lions: CB Kerby Joseph, Terrion Arnold and Avonte Maddox were out with injuries, a setback for a secondary without suspended safety Brian Branch. DT Alim McNeill played since tearing a knee ligament late last season and OT Taylor Decker (shoulder) returned after missing two games.

Up next

Bucs: Visit New Orleans on Sunday.

Lions: Bye week before hosting Minnesota on Nov. 2.

Disappointment central. You won’t find two more disappointing teams in football than Baltimore and Houston. Both are 1-3, and one of them is going to be 1-4 (well, outside of a tie) after Sunday because they meet in Baltimore. Lamar Jackson’s status is in doubt, the Ravens defense is a mess and also battered by injuries, and the Texans aren’t in much better shape. Houston’s No. 29 scoring offense against Baltimore’s last-ranked scoring defense is the classic stoppable force against a moveable object.

Fields-ing questions. The Jets nearly won an emotional opener against former quarterback Aaron Rodgers and now instead find themselves 0-4 under new head coach Aaron Glenn. Quarterback Justin Fields has struggled overall, and Glenn’s defense has given up 27-plus points in all four games. Now they’ve got to try to slow down a potent Dallas offense before heading to London to take on the Broncos. Tough start.

Signs of progress. Jacksonville is 3-1 under Liam Cohen and (probably) not just because of the legal sign-stealing operation he runs that caused a bit of a kerfuffle last week with San Francisco defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. You’d have made a tidy sum if you’d bet preseason that the Jags (3-1) would have a better record than Kansas City (2-2) for this matchup, but Patrick Mahomes and company are still 3.5-point road favorites.

Around the NFC

Return of the Mac. The 49ers had five players, including QB Brock Purdy, ruled out for Thursday night’s visit to the division-rival Rams. They had 12 players on the injury report, and that doesn’t include a trio of stars on injured reserve and PUP in TE George Kittle, DL Nick Bosa and WR Brandon Aiyuk. No matter. They won an entertaining game in overtime, 23-20. QB Mac Jones threw for 342 yards and two touchdowns. The Niners could fill an infirmary and yet are 4-1. Kyle Shanahan’s doing it again.

Cross-country runners. Not many longer flights in the NFL than Tampa’s trip to Seattle this weekend. But it����ap a darn good matchup between 3-1s in the Bucs and Seahawks. And it����ap a game that features two exciting young receivers out of Ohio State in Seattle’s Jaxson Smith-Njigba and Tampa rookie Emeka Egbuka. JSN is second in receiving yards so far, and Egbuka is tied for third in touchdown grabs.

Make it a double. Kevin O’Connell and Brian Flores are probably eligible to serve on the European Union commission they’ve spent so much time across the Atlantic. The Vikings are playing the second of their first-of-its-kind two-game European road swing when they square off against Cleveland at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Little did the Europeans know they were going to get a double dose of Carson Wentz. The league is probably hoping the Vikes don’t get swept on this journey, because it’ll be a tough sell for others in the future.

Game of the Week

Washington at L.A. Chargers

Jayden Daniels should be back for the Commanders after missing last week’s 34-27 loss to Atlanta. Justin Herbert and the Chargers are looking to bounce back after a confounding loss at the New York Giants. Both of these teams are in fine position early in the season, but they both could really use a win, too. L.A. is favored by 2.5, and Washington has an awfully long flight out to the West Coast. Should be fun to watch Kliff Kingsbury and the Commanders offense try to solve Jesse Minter and the Chargers’ defense.

Chargers 27, Commanders 23

Lock of the Week

Detroit at Cincinnati

Detroit scored just 13 points and lost to Green Bay resoundingly in Week 1. Through four weeks, however, the Lions lead the NFL in scoring and point differential thanks to a three-week tear. Dan Campbell’s team has scored 52, 38 and 34 in consecutive weeks against Chicago, Baltimore and Cleveland, respectively. Their running back duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery is monstrous. Jared Goff is playing great. And former Denver passing game coordinator Johnny Morton has hit his stride as the Lions’ OC. Next up: A Bengals defense that doesn’t look fit to stop anybody. The Lions are favored by 10.5, but that seems light. Look out.

Lions 45, Bengals 13

Upset of the Week

N.Y. Giants at New Orleans

Jaxson Dart may have only thrown for 111 yards in his NFL debut, but he gave the Giants a little bit of life. The rookie quarterback beat the Chargers and did so by running the ball effectively and avoiding the big mistake. Now he’s got a much more manageable challenge, even if it����ap on the road. The Saints have looked lost so far this season, they don’t have a clear answer at quarterback and their defense has really struggled. Giants coach Brian Daboll and GM Joe Schoen have their jobs on the line this year, and this is a chance to get a second straight win — even without star WR Malik Nabers. Watch New York’s pass-rush. It����ap serious.

Giants 20, Saints 17

1.

The defending Super Bowl champs get top billing thanks to quarterback Jalen Hurts, running back Saquon Barkley, and a loaded defense.

2.

The Ravens might have the best quarterback in football and the best overall roster. At some point, it����ap got to show in the postseason.

3.

Josh Allen and company are going to break through and get to a Super Bowl at some point, right? Right?

4.

Patrick Mahomes has played in an AFC title game every year he’s started in Kansas City, and it won’t be easy to knock him off that course.

5.

Can former Broncos passing game coordinator John Morton ably replace Ben Johnson as Jared Goff’s offensive coordinator?

6.

The Packers should be formidable on both sides of the ball, but they need Jordan Love to play like one of the NFL’s best QBs.

7.

Dan Quinn and Jayden Daniels made for one of the league’s best stories in 2024. Now, can they back it up?

8.

Jim Harbaugh’s roster is solid, and the addition of rookie RB Omarion Hampton gives them a back to fully lean into the run game.

9. Denver Broncos

Sean Payton’s team isn’t sneaking up on anybody this year, but the Broncos have perhaps the league’s most talented defense and an ascending QB in Bo Nix.

10.

If quarterback Matthew Stafford stays healthy, this team has the makings of a Super Bowl contender. But that����ap a big if.

11.

The Vikings are like the Broncos: Talented, well-coached, maybe a Super Bowl threat, and maybe third place in their own division.

12.

Joe Burrow’s got his receivers locked up and the offense should be as dangerous as ever, but can the Bengals stop anybody?

13.

The 49ers had brutal injury luck in 2024 and shed big contracts this offseason, but still have the juice to be real players in the NFC.

14.

Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter are one of the most formidable defensive duos in the NFL, and if the offense rebounds, look out.

15.

The Steelers went to work this offseason, adding Aaron Rodgers, DK Metcalf, Darius Slay, Juan Thornhill and more. They’ll be fascinating at a minimum.

16.

Rookie WR Emeka Egbuka is already drawing rave reviews, and Baker Mayfield’s played like a star quarterback in an eminently winnable division.

17.

If everything goes right for the Cowboys, they’ve got the talent and the quarterback to be in the NFC mix, but when’s the last time that happened?

18.

Year 2 under Mike MacDonald has promise, especially if the defense moves up from finishing tied for 11th in EPA last season.

19.

Is Mike McDaniel trending toward the hot seat? If Tua Tagovailoa is healthy and the Dolphins get on a good offensive run, then no. If not…

20.

The Bears are going to draw a ton of attention with new head coach Ben Johnson pairing with QB Caleb Williams, but is this the year the franchise finally breaks out?

21.

Could Year 2 be the year of Marvin Harrison Jr.? His 885 yards and 8 TDs as a rookie are nothing to sneeze at, but that might be just the start.

22.

Not many teams have a more exciting pair of young playmakers than TE Brock Bowers and RB Ashton Jeanty, and vibes are good with new HC Pete Carroll.

23.

QB Michael Penix Jr. has RB Bijan Robinson, a good set of weapons, and a chance to show why the Falcons drafted him No. 8 overall in 2024.

24.

The Patriots hired Mike Vrabel to bring stability back to the franchise in the post-Bill Belichick era. How fast can he and QB Drake Maye get it going?

25.

Head coach Aaron Glenn and GM Darren Mougey made big decisions but also quieted the building down this offseason. But is Justin Fields really the answer at QB?

26.

What has happened to you, Trevor Lawrence? Better make some hay this year with Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter.

27.

The Colts are stuck in QB purgatory unless Anthony Richardson engineers a massive turnaround.

28.

Is there a worse offense out there than the Saints? New head coach Kellen Moore has his work cut out for him.

29.

The Broncos in Week 7 might be a good over/under for when the Giants kick off coaching search season.

30.

Bryce Young’s resurgence in 2024 was great to see. Now, can the Panthers stop anybody?

31.

No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward has talent, but like many in his position before, there’s little infrastructure around that would inspire confidence.

32.

How many quarterbacks can one franchise churn through in a single season? The Browns might find out before settling on Shedeur Sanders.

Detroit Lions

BetMGM says: Win Super Bowl: 10-1; Over-under win total: 10.5

Strengths: Their championship window won’t last forever, but the Lions still field a pretty complete roster. They have exceptional playmakers on both sides of the ball, especially the elite backfield duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Biggest reason for optimism: Defensive end Aidan Hutchinson is back from the season-ending leg injury that loomed over Detroit’s 45-31 divisional-round loss to Washington.

Weaknesses: Not many. You can nitpick quarterback Jared Goff after his four-turnover performance in the playoffs, or worry about Frank Ragnow’s retirement from the offensive line, or quibble with Detroit’s schematic potential after losing offensive coordinator Ben Johnson (replaced by ex-Broncos pass game coordinator John Morton). But if this roster is healthy, it should remain a Super Bowl contender.

Green Bay Packers

BetMGM says: Win Super Bowl: 22-1; Over-under win total: 9.5

Strengths: Still one of the youngest squads in the NFL, Green Bay has reached the playoffs twice in a row with ample room left over to keep improving throughout the roster. Josh Jacobs is fresh off a 1,300-yard rushing season, Jordan Love is protected by a sturdy offensive line, and safety Xavier McKinney was one of the most dynamic defensive backs in the league last year.

Weaknesses: Love has evolved into one of the more polarizing quarterbacks in the league, his upside offset by his inconsistency. Mileage varies on whether he’s a worthy franchise QB for one of the NFL’s most storied teams. Green Bay’s defensive line was a weakness in 2024, and questions remain at cornerback surrounding McKinney. Youth could be a blessing or a curse for the Packers. They went 1-5 within the division last year.

Chicago Bears

BetMGM says: Win Super Bowl: 40-1; Over-under win total: 8.5

Strengths: Welcome to the big seat, Ben Johnson. Is the grass greener in Chicago than the turf was in Detroit? The Bears’ new mad scientist of a head coach is under tremendous pressure to maximize a talented offensive line and a sophomore quarterback who underperformed last year. This team was good enough to win eight games, but it was held back by a few of the stupidest endings of the decade so far.

Weaknesses: About that quarterback: Caleb Williams was drafted No. 1 overall into a pretty favorable situation, making his rookie season an abject failure (particularly relative to the No. 2 pick). By most metrics, he was among the worst starting QBs in the league. Da Bears tried to invest in skill players around him this offseason, drafting a tight end in the first round and a receiver in the second. Not to mention the hire of Johnson. Is all of that enough?

Minnesota Vikings

BetMGM says: Win Super Bowl: 25-1; Over-under win total: 8.5

Strengths: The Vikings tied for the second-best record in the NFC in 2024, and they still have the best pass-catcher in the sport in Justin Jefferson, not to mention Jordan Addison’s helping hands. Their pass rush is suffocating and multi-faceted — Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard alone might be dominant enough to make Minnesota a top-10 defense in spite of a less talented secondary.

Weaknesses: Letting Sam Darnold walk after a career year is a big gamble on JJ McCarthy, whose rookie season was delayed by a torn meniscus. Minnesota is pretty much rolling out the red carpet for him now. The job is his, fresh off a months-long recovery, with a team that’s supposed to have championship-caliber expectations. It’s a fragile situation on paper, especially considering the flimsy offensive line play that helped doom Darnold last year.

“Thank you. Legendary.”

When it comes to the draft, there is a growing buzz at the NFL combine that general managers will respond, “No thank you. Ordinary.”

Before CU fanboys sharpen horns and yell Miss Peggy’s name in vain, understand this has nothing to do with Coach Prime, Well-Off Media or YouTube videos.

Those elements of Sanders’ college experience are still viewed favorably for preparing him for the next level. He has grown up in the spotlight and on camera, his family the football version of the Kardashians.

“I know nothing can faze me,” Sanders said.

The issue boils down to this: his ceiling. Is he a second-contract guy? If an AFC team takes him, can he eventually win a Royal Rumble with Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Bo Nix?

Sanders profiles as a pure pocket passer. That trait is the equivalent of a great personality on a dating app.

“He’s a ball distributor and executor. He’s a lower level prospect than C.J. Stroud, but he’s that kind of quarterback so he needs a good team around him,” said Greg Cosell, who has spent nearly 40 years at NFL Films analyzing players and games. “And he needs to play at an incredibly high mental level. Can he do it? I can’t answer that.”

Sanders must win over a team with his brain. Convince them he can play chess with checkdowns. Protect the ball. Move the chains. Be a game manager, albeit one with a diamond-studded necklace.

“My game is not played from my legs, and not even just my arm. The longevity with the all-time greats, what is Tom Brady’s best trait? His mental. He’s able to think,” said Sanders, who counts Brady as a mentor.

“If you have those traits of greatness and I know where I am headed, then why wouldn’t a franchise pick me?”

While Sanders’ mind is beautiful, it doesn’t move the needle like a quarterback who can extend plays with his legs and has Paul Skenes’ arm attached to his shoulder. That stuff matters at the top of the draft.

Miami’s Cam Ward, a friend of Sanders’, possesses superior physical skills. Could he be better than Sanders? Sure. He also could be a whole lot worse. Two years ago, Anthony Richardson made scouts feel warm and fuzzy inside, and the Colts were left outside the playoffs last season because he completed 47% of his passes with eight touchdowns and 12 interceptions.

Ward brings risk. Sanders, as hard it is to believe after watching him scramble in Boulder, represents safety. Wide margins for Ward mean he could flip a city on its ear or be tossed to the curb in three years. Sanders’ floor guarantees he can be a functional starter, but he must make teams believe the 94 sacks he suffered the last two seasons were the result of decisions, not habits. Hold the ball too long in the NFL and retreat backward and Sanders will spend Sundays in a blue tent with a red face.

“Sometimes I was trying to make too much happen. That just comes from a mindset of like, ‘Do or Die’ mentality,” Sanders said. “Sometimes I got caught up in playing hero ball. But I understand where I messed up and I am going to fix it at the next level.”

Somebody will tell you over the next two months that Jaxson Dart is better than Sanders. That����ap stupid. But we see stupid every year in the draft as many evaluators were convinced Nix would be a bust.

Sanders is the most pro-ready quarterback.

But back to the ceiling. What is his superpower?

That question hangs over him this week as he meets with NFL teams, opting not to work out until CU’s Pro Day in April.

Sanders has average arm strength by NFL standards. He manipulates the pocket but is not a dual threat. He is not a great athlete. Teams covet remarkable over reliable.

Watch Sanders operate a two-minute drill and how can you not be impressed? He does not throw a 98 mph fastball, but he overcomes this with a quick delivery and fast processor. He does not have the hardware. But he sure has the software.

“We went from Jackson State to Colorado and changed two programs back to back. So you don’t think I could come to an NFL franchise and change a program again? It����ap history. It����ap always going to repeat itself,” Sanders said. “You’ve got the ultimate cheat code.”

Sanders has shown humility throughout this draft process, impressing teams with his interviews at the Shrine Bowl and combine.

Put him with the Rams, Dolphins or Saints, and he would flourish. He is not equipped to save the Titans, Browns or Giants. The Jets make the most sense — the Raiders’ Chip Kelly is not ideal — for a number of reasons. General manager Darren Mougey would be inclined to be risk averse as Aaron Glenn establishes the roots of his program.

And they could use a steady force, a man calmer than a lagoon in the huddle and in a media scrum.

Some compare Sanders to Geno Smith — not flattering, but not horrible. But he also has shades of Jared Goff in his game. The Jets new offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand came from the Lions.

The cheat code for Sanders? Valuing the right fit over where he gets picked. That is just plain smart.