When Sam Darnold hoisted the Lombardi Trophy in February, it was the culmination of an unlikely quarterback journey.
Darnold, like many other Super Bowl champions, was a high draft pick. Just not by Seattle. Or Minnesota, where he played before the Seahawks. Or San Francisco. Or Carolina.
Darnold, of course, was picked No. 3 overall in the 2018 draft by the New York Jets. He flamed out there, then started a journey that featured stops and starts, more downs than ups and, eventually, a fast rise at Minnesota, a $100 million deal in Seattle and, in his first year starting for the Seahawks, a world championship.
Darnold is one of several quarterbacks in the NFL who has had to take the long route to being a coveted starter. Baker Mayfield went through the same thing. Jared Goff nearly won a Super Bowl in Los Angeles only to be dumped by the Rams to Detroit. Daniel Jones was putting together a great year last year — his first in seven seasons — before an injury cut his Indianapolis debut short.
Overall, though, winning a Super Bowl in the past decade-plus in the NFL has been the province of surefire Hall of Famers. Before the Seahawks, nine of the previous 11 Super Bowls had been won by Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Matthew Stafford. The other two belong to the Eagles: The Nick Foles miracle run in 2017 and Jalen Hurts in 2024.
Of course, any team would take a future Hall of Famer at quarterback, but one interesting element here: For as much as the prevailing wisdom is that quarterbacks on a cheap, rookie contract are the key to building a championship-caliber team, the only quarterbacks since 2013 to win a Super Bowl while actually playing on their rookie deal are Russell Wilson (2013 for Seattle) and Mahomes in 2019.
Mahomes’ and Brady’s dominance have a lot to do with that stat, but perhaps itap telling nonetheless.
While they haven’t won many titles, rookie-contract quarterbacks still have appeared in the Super Bowl frequently. Wilson made it back in 2014. Since 2018, the losing Super Bowl quarterback has been on his rookie deal six of eight years, with Mahomes holding the two exceptions in 2020 and 2024. Otherwise, the list goes Goff (2018), Jimmy Garoppolo (2019), Joe Burrow (2021), Hurts (2022), Brock Purdy (2023) and Drake Maye last year.
Of the 26 quarterbacks to start a Super Bowl in the past 13 years, 12 have accounted for 5.2% of his team’s cap that year or less. That includes the past two winners in Darnold and Hurts.
Could a quarterback on a rookie deal break through this year and win a Super Bowl? The 2024 draft class, which becomes extension-eligible after this season, looks like a decent bet. After all, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Maye and Denver’s Bo Nix have already won division titles in their first two seasons. Maye’s played in a Super Bowl, while Daniels and Nix have come within a game.
The list of quarterbacks good enough to take up double-digit percentage of a team’s salary cap has been short over the past decade-plus. Mahomes winning two in Kansas City while taking up 17% of the Chiefs’ cap space stands as a substantial outlier.
Of course, teams are adept at suppressing the cap hit for a player long after he signs an extension, but the bill comes due at some point. So, the most efficient way is to strike while the iron is hot and the signal-caller is cheap.
QBs in the Super Bowl since 2013
| Year | Winning QB | Team | Cap number (% of cap) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Russell Wilson | Seattle | $681,000 (0.5%) |
| 2014 | Tom Brady | New England | $14.8 mil (10.6%) |
| 2015 | Peyton Manning | Denver | $17.5 mil (11.7%) |
| 2016 | Tom Brady | New England | $13.7 mil (8.6%) |
| 2017 | Nick Foles | Philadelphia | $1.6 mil (0.9%) |
| 2018 | Tom Brady | New England | $22 mil (12.2%) |
| 2019 | Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City | $4.5 mil (2.4%) |
| 2020 | Tom Brady | Tampa Bay | $25 mil (12.2%) |
| 2021 | Matthew Stafford | L.A. Rams | $20 mil (10.7%) |
| 2022 | Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City | $35.8 mil (17%) |
| 2023 | Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City | $37.1 mil (17.1%) |
| 2024 | Jalen Hurts | Philadelphia | $13.6 mil (5.2%) |
| 2025 | Sam Darnold | Seattle | $13.4 mil (4.7%) |
| Year | Losing QB | Team | Cap number (% cap) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Peyton Manning | Denver | $18 mil (14.9%) |
| 2014 | Russell Wilson | Seattle | $817,000 (0.6%) |
| 2015 | Cam Newton | Carolina | $13 mil (8.7%) |
| 2016 | Matt Ryan | Atlanta | $23.8 mil (15%) |
| 2017 | Tom Brady | New England | $14 mil (8.3%) |
| 2018 | Jared Goff | L.A. Rams | $7.6 mil (4.2%) |
| 2019 | Jimmy Garoppolo | San Francisco | $20 mil (8.6%) |
| 2020 | Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City | $5.3 mil (2.4%) |
| 2021 | Joe Burrow | Cincinnati | $8.2 mil (4.2%) |
| 2022 | Jalen Hurts | Philadelphia | $1.6 mil (0.7%) |
| 2023 | Brock Purdy | San Francisco | $889,000 (0.4%) |
| 2024 | Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City | $37 mil (14.7%) |
| 2025 | Drake Maye | New England | $8.3 mil (2.6%) |
* Cap data via OvertheCap
The 2024 QB class through two years
| Pick | Player | Team | Record | Playoff record | 2026 rank (The Athletic) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caleb Williams | Chicago | 16-18 | 1-1 | T-11 |
| 2 | Jayden Daniels | Washington | 14-10 | 2-1 | 13 |
| 3 | Drake Maye | New England | 17-12 | 3-1 | T-8 |
| 8 | Michael Penix Jr. | Atlanta | 4-8 | 0-0 | 32 |
| 10 | J.J. McCarthy | Minnesota | 6-4 | 0-0 | 34 |
| 12 | Bo Nix | Denver | 24-10 | 1-1 | 18 |
