Broncos at Chiefs
When: 6:15 p.m. Monday
Where: Arrowhead Stadium
TV/radio: ESPN and ABC, 850 AM/94.1 FM
Broncos-Chiefs series: The last three contests in this AFC West rivalry have gone to the Broncos, but Kansas City holds the all-time wins advantage 73-59. It has been a series of streaks recently: Denver won seven straight games from 2012 to 2015, but then Kansas City ripped off a between 2015 and 2023.
In the spotlight: Which revamped run game pays off?
In the two games between Denver and Kansas City last year, the teams combined for 70 designed runs to 142 passes. The average NFL run-to-pass split is roughly 60% pass and 40% run, so clearly the Broncos and Chiefs trusted their passing games more.
But each team made upgrades in the backfield this offseason and will rely on their rushing attack in Week 1. J.K. Dobbins is healthy after suffering a season-ending foot injury in Week 10 last year and the Broncos added rookie Jonah Coleman in the draft. On the other side, the Chiefs signed Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III and drafted rookie Emmett Johnson in the fifth round.
“(The Chiefs) commitment to running the ball I think is evident in the offseason,” coach Sean Payton said.
Linebacker Alex Singleton agreed with his coach.
“I think when the Chiefs go get a back like [Walker], it’s saying to the league, ‘Hey, we want to run the ball. We want to show the league that we can,'” Singleton said. “And I think thatap what they’re going to come out and do and we’re going to prepare for that.”
The Broncos could also try to establish more of a ground game. Prior to Dobbins going down, the team averaged 128.6 rushing yards per game, compared to 104.6 yards per contest afterward. With their lead back now healthy, along with Coleman and R.J. Harvey, this is the most talented backfield under Payton. Denver’s offensive line also returns all five of its starters.
” I think it’s really hard to run the football in this league and if you want to do it well, you have to have a good plan, you have to good concepts, you have to have total buy-in and you have to have great execution when it matters,” tackle Mike McGlinchey said.
Dobbins said he’s “itching” to return. Payton was noncommittal when asked how many carries Dobbins will receive, or if he’ll be in a snap count restriction in Week 1. When asked how many carries he hopes to have against the Chiefs, Dobbins said he wants “100.”
If Denver can rush effectively and pop a few explosive runs (10+ yard rushing plays), an aspect it was average at last season, that could quiet the Kansas City crowd and give new offensive coordinator Davis Webb more calls at his disposal. If Kansas City can ease quarterback Patrick Mahomes back into his first start off his injury with a Walker-filled night, it’ll make it that much easier on the former MVP.
Both teams have the offensive line and running backs to do it. We will see which is more efficient on Monday night.
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run: Denver’s ground game has been virtually nonexistent when facing Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. In Sean Payton’s six games against the Chiefs, the Broncos have averaged 3.79 yards per carry. It has not necessarily been for a lack of trying: Denver’s rushed it around 30 times per game in those six matchups. Payton and the coaching staff have emphasized a commitment to the run game this season. We’ll see how earnest that dedication is. Edge: Chiefs
When Broncos pass: Last year, Kansas City had two strong starting cornerbacks in All-Pro Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson. Both players departed to the Los Angeles Rams this offseason and the Chiefs are breaking in first-round rookie Mansoor Delane, Nohl Williams and L’Jarius Sneed on the boundary. Nix was reluctant to push the ball downfield against the Chiefs last year, averaging 6.36 yards per attempt. But the addition of Waddle should help free up the middle of the field and force Spagnuolo to play more two-high coverage. Plus, Nix should be able to feather in more layer passes against the Chiefs’ zone without McDuffie. Edge: Broncos
When Chiefs run: This matchup could swing the contest. The Chiefs have pointed to a revamped running game all summer; Travis Kelce said offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, back for a second stint in Kansas City, has revitalized the team’s toughness and they signed Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III in the offseason to aid Mahomes. But in big games, the Chiefs always seem to put the ball in Mahomes hands, and Denver’s rushing defense was the second best in the NFL last year. Slight edge: Broncos
When Chiefs pass: Mahomes is the most accomplished quarterback of this decade and coach Andy Reid is renowned for his passing concepts and play calling. It’s one of the top QB-coach duos in league history. And still, the Broncos have had success slowing down the two-time MVP in recent matchups. In his last four games against Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, Mahomes has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns, been sacked 12 times and completed only 67% of his passes. If Denver’s pass rush can get home, or its secondary can hold up against Chiefs’ weapons (including Kelce), it should be in a good spot. Edge: Broncos
Special teams: Broncos punter Jeremy Crawshaw is the only new specialist among the rivals. Will Lutz and Harrison Butker are two of the top veteran kickers in the league. Denver does have an advantage in the return game, as Marvin Mims Jr. more than doubled Nikko Remigio’s punt returning yardage last year. Slight edge: Chiefs
Coaching:
Tale of the tape (2025 season)
| Stat | Broncos | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Total offense | 342.6 (10th) | 320.6 (20th) |
| Rush offense | 118.7 (16th) | 106.6 (25th) |
| Pass offense | 223.9 (11th) | 214.1 (16th) |
| Points per game | 23.6 (14th) | 21.3 (21st) |
| Total defense | 278.2 (10th) | 301.5 (6th) |
| Run defense | 91.1 (2nd) | 105.7 (9th) |
| Pass defense | 187.2 (7th) | 195.8 (12th) |
| Points allowed | 18.3 (3rd) | 19.3 (6th) |
By the numbers
15.75: Chiefs’ points per game with Mahomes under center against Vance Joseph since 2023.
10-2: The Broncos’ record when they have an extended break (more than six days) between games under Payton.
73.1%. Bo Nix’s completion percentage against the Chiefs. Nix is 3-1 against Kansas City in his career.
25.7: Kansas City’s average age on its roster, the third youngest in the NFL, according to .
X-factors
Broncos: Que Robinson and Jonah Elliss. Jonathon Cooper won’t play in this game, which means the Broncos will have a new face alongside Nik Bonitto. Robinson’s emerged in training camp as a potential breakout candidate and Elliss is listed as the starting outside linebacker on the team’s depth chart. They’ll face the benefit of facing undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson, who is expected to replace the injured Josh Simmons. Expect the Chiefs to send plenty of help toward Bonitto, so Robinson and Elliss should get some 1-on-1s. Let’s see if the young edges are ready.
Chiefs: Xavier Worthy. A former first-round pick, Worthy has not capitalized on the blazing speed that made him a touted prospect out of Texas. He had a solid rookie season, but he injured himself on his third snap of the season and wasn’t productive after he returned. Patrick Surtain II should spent plenty of time on Rashee Rice, leaving cornerback Riley Moss on Worthy. Moss has struggled with penalties and does not possess the same speed as Worthy. If the third-year wideout can unlock the Chiefs’ deep passing game, that could flip Week 1 in Kansas City’s favor.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, Broncos writer: Broncos 23, Chiefs 20
It will be quite a scene at Arrowhead Stadium with Patrick Mahomes returning from a December ACL tear to a Monday Night Football crowd. For familiar foes, there are also wrinkles galore here to sort through. Denver’s been up to the task recently against Kansas City and now adds Jaylen Waddle and Webb to the mix.
Sam Jane, Broncos writer: Broncos 21, Chiefs 14
This will be one of the toughest tests of Bo Nix’s career. The Chiefs will be motivated to prove they’re still the premier team in the AFC West and Patrick Mahomes’ return will galvanize the fans in Arrowhead Stadium. But Mahomes is returning from major injury, and Kansas City’s offensive line will be starting an undrafted rookie at tackle. The Broncos’ defensive line will lead the Broncos to a 1-0 start.
Troy Renck, columnist: Broncos 23, Chiefs 20
Patrick Mahomes has never lost to the Broncos in Arrowhead. But that version of Mahomes is now compromised by his recovery from ACL surgery on his left knee and the dimming cast around him. Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has shown he can temper Mahomes’ greatness, and Davis Webb, with the benefit of unpredictability, will dial up enough play-action strikes for the Broncos to continue winning close games just like they did last season.
Sean Keeler, columnist: Broncos 22, Chiefs 20
Former Buff alert! Kahlil Benson is a nice kid who kept Shedeur Sanders upright in 2024, left Boulder for a return to Bloomington, and won a national title with Indiana last fall. Monday Night Lights at Arrowhead won’t faze him. Nik Bonitto, though, is a different kettle of fish. Bo Nix gets the ball last, the Broncos kick a field goal late and steal one from Magic Mahomes.
Nate Peterson, sports editor: Broncos 28, Chiefs 24
The Chiefs just don’t scare anymore. Patrick Mahomes is coming off ACL surgery and will have an undrafted rookie protecting his blind side against Vance Joseph’s ferocious pass rush. Travis Kelce, at 36, is a better podcaster and pitchman than game-wrecker at this point. Yes, Andy Reid is still dialing up the plays, but if the Broncos shut down Kenneth Walker III and the run game, the options on the play sheet for Reid and Eric Bieniemy could get real limited real fast. Sean Payton, in Year 4, finally gets his first win over Mahomes at Arrowhead.
