As a yearslong stalemate in negotiations persists between the seven states that share the river, it’s become increasingly likely that the federal government will impose its own long-term plan, choosing from a range of proposals officials have outlined in recent months.

But experts and water managers across the 250,000-square-mile Colorado River basin are raising the alarm about the five plans, questioning if any of them hold up under the new climate reality. They say the federal plans won’t keep the system from crashing in critically dry years — which are becoming more frequent — and could wreak chaos on the pivotal lifeline for 40 million people in the American Southwest.

“In every one of those alternatives, under what they call critically dry hydrology, the system is failing,” said Andy Mueller, the general manager of , a taxpayer-funded agency based in Glenwood Springs that works to protect Western Slope water. “And critically dry hydrology is what we have continued to see consistently in the basin in the last 25 years and what we should expect going forward.”

Climate change and persistent drought have already sapped hundreds of billions of gallons of water from the river’s annual flow. Officials from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Friday to add more water to Lake Powell — one of the system’s two major reservoirs downstream of the river’s headwaters in the Colorado mountains — after updated projections showed that spring flows into the already-low reservoir could be less than a third of average.

Federal water managers over the next year will release hundreds of millions of gallons of water from Flaming Gorge Reservoir in Wyoming and Utah to keep Lake Powell above “minimum power pool” — the reservoir elevation needed to send water through hydropower turbines. Without access to the turbines, water released from the dam must flow through much smaller bypass tubes that are , choking flow from one of the West’s largest water banks.

Emergency decisions like those taken Friday illustrate some of the risks of failing to prepare for intense drought, experts say.

In extremely dry years, the longer-term plans under consideration by Reclamation would allow the water levels of the system’s two main reservoirs to repeatedly fall below minimum power pool. Federal officials then would be forced to make recurring emergency cuts to the water supplies of the three states downstream of the reservoirs, creating uncertainty for millions of people and a massive agricultural industry.

For more than two years, negotiators from the seven states that rely on the river have tried and failed to agree on that runs from Colorado’s high country to Mexico. The technical nitty-gritty of the disputes is wonky, but the key issue underlying the schism between the states is simple: Who should be forced to use less water — and how much less — as the Colorado River’s flows shrink?

Reclamation officials on Friday said they are preparing to implement their own plan this summer if the states can’t agree on answers to those questions. In January, federal officials released five potential operational guidelines — called “alternatives” in federal jargon — and asked for input.

They , including critiques from across the basin asserting that none of their plans would function well in dry years. That criticism also applied to the only plan the Bureau of Reclamation can implement without consensus from the basin states or without gaining new legal powers.

Letters from a number of Colorado entities — including the , , the Western Slope’s and county commissions from a vast swath of the state — urged federal officials to present at least one plan that would hold up in extremely dry years.

“Sound science dictates that Colorado River management must evolve to handle a permanently drier future,” Tina Bergonzini, the general manager of the Grand Valley Water Users Association, . “The current federal preference for predictability is an atmospheric impossibility given that studies indicate rising temperatures have already slashed river flows by a fifth.”

Bureau of Reclamation officials declined an interview request for this story. But they have publicly acknowledged the risk.

“In critically dry periods, all of the alternatives have unacceptable performance,” bureau engineer Rebecca Smith said during . Even imposing large cuts to water usage in those years would not keep the major reservoirs at functional levels, she said.

The conflict on the Colorado is likely one of the world’s first major water policy overhauls to grapple with the reality of climate change, said , a senior water and climate research scholar at Colorado State University’s .

In the past, Colorado River managers made operational tweaks and short-term deals to address drought. This time, it’s different.

“We’re not looking at an incremental step here,” Udall said. “We’re looking at a complete redo of how we operate this resource that affects 40 million people.”

‘Downright scary what����ap going on’

The West first wrestled with divvying up the powerful Colorado River in 1922, when delegates from each of the seven states met in Santa Fe and signed .

At its most basic, the compact divides up the 18 million acre-feet of water then estimated to be in the river — including 7.5 million acre-feet reserved for the Upper Basin states of Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and New Mexico, and 7.5 million acre-feet for the Lower Basin states of California, Arizona and Nevada. An acre-foot of water is the volume of water it takes to cover an acre of land in a foot of water — about 326,000 gallons — and is generally considered the annual water consumption of two families.

The 18 million acre-feet was likely an overestimation of how much water there was even a century ago, but today’s river provides even less than the total amounts promised to states in 1922.

“Since 2000, the flows have been radically different,” Udall said.

The 20-year average annual flow measured in 1925 was 17.6 million acre-feet, Bureau of Reclamation data show. In 2025, it was 12.7 million acre-feet.

But even that number hides the reality of recent dry years. The five-year average amounts to only 10.9 million acre-feet. Last year’s flow measured at 8.5 million acre-feet.

This year will be even lower due to record-low snowpack across much of the basin.

The conditions this year are not a one-off, Udall said, but symptoms of a larger warming trend fueled by human-caused global climate change. Hotter temperatures not only increase water loss through evaporation but also make plants and soils thirstier, reducing the amount of water that flows downstream. Evidence is also piling up indicating that climate change is reducing precipitation across the Colorado River’s headwaters, Udall said.

“I think this is quite nerve-racking — and perhaps just downright scary — what����ap going on,” he said.

The Bureau of Reclamation acknowledges the likelihood of a hotter, drier future in its draft environmental impact statement, though it shies away from using the term climate change.

“The basin is experiencing increased aridity due to climate variability, and long-term drought and low-runoff conditions are expected in the future,” the document’s executive summary states.

Expect more critically dry years

Future hydrology is the biggest and most impactful uncertainty federal officials must reckon with while crafting plans for the river, Smith said in the January webinar.

The bureau modeled hundreds of potential future conditions and then compared how each of its five proposed plans would perform under different levels of river flow over the next 20 years, broken into three categories:

• Average (12-14 million acre-feet average over 20 years)
• Dry (10-12 million acre-feet average over 20 years)
• Critically dry (less than 10 million acre-feet average over 20 years)

If average flows over the next two decades fall in the “average” category, the plans generally would be able to keep Lakes Powell and Mead — the two big downstream reservoirs — above critical levels and eliminate the need for emergency reductions in water supplies to keep them functional.

But that’s not how recent years have gone.

Since 2020, Colorado River flows have fallen into Reclamation’s “critically dry” category in four of six water years. The repeated dry years, coupled with downstream consumption that has not changed to match the reduction in inflow, have and Mead, which are now less than a third full.

“Critically dry hydrology is what we have continued to see consistently in the basin and what we should expect going forward,” said Mueller, from the Colorado River District.

Between 2021 and 2025, the river’s flows averaged 11.2 million acre-feet — low enough to fall into Reclamation’s dry hydrology category. That average was boosted by the unusually wet 2023 year when the river delivered 17.4 million acre-feet of water, while most of the other years fell into the critically dry category.

As modeled by the bureau, if critically dry years continue, Powell and Mead will more often fall so low that their will become unusable, impacting power availability for more than 1 million people. Bureau officials would more often be forced to implement emergency water cuts to try to keep the reservoirs functional.

In , the Colorado River District urged officials to add an alternative plan that would function well in critically dry periods.

“The population of the state of Colorado and the entire Colorado River basin is best served by the Department of the Interior studying alternatives that actually bring the system into balance,” Mueller said, referring to the cabinet department above the bureau. “And recognizing that those management alternatives will have some extremely harsh realities — hydrologically and politically — up and down the basin. But that����ap what we’re best served by.”

Bureau of Reclamation’s most likely plan

Without a deal between the seven states or obtaining more legal authority from Congress or the states, federal officials will be forced to implement a plan dubbed “Basic Coordination.”

The plan mandates the least cuts for the Lower Basin states and is generally less flexible than the other proposals.

In dry periods under that plan, Lakes Powell and Mead could fall below minimum power pool 30% to 40% of the time, according to Bureau of Reclamation projections. In critically dry periods, that figure rises to more than 70%.

The federal agency estimates that Lake Powell will be vulnerable to falling below that level in the first five years under the Basic Coordination plan if the average annual flows in that period amount to less than 11.3 million acre-feet. The five-year average has fallen below that level in three of the last five years.

If the federal government enacts the Basic Coordination plan, the bureau will keep scrambling to make emergency decisions to ensure Powell and Mead are operable. Such decisions could involve cuts to Lower Basin water supplies or the sending of water from federally-managed reservoirs upstream — like Flaming Gorge or Colorado’s Blue Mesa — to keep enough water in Powell.

Federal officials could also seek water from other water sources the government owns or operates in Colorado, Mueller said, such as from irrigation projects on the Western Slope or , which delivers Colorado River water across the Continental Divide to northeastern Colorado.

“Legal uncertainty and hydrologic uncertainty would erupt,” he said. “We, as good water managers throughout our state and the basin, should try to avoid that.”

Under the Basic Coordination plan, reactive chaos will erode what certainty remains on the changing river, said , the regional policy manager for , a climate advocacy organization.

“We will be right back where we are with emergency operations,” he said, like pulling water from upstream reservoirs to prop up Powell. “But you can’t do that every single year because there isn’t enough water in the Upper Basin reservoirs.”

Bureau of Reclamation officials plan to finalize new long-term guidelines by Aug. 15, in time for the Oct. 1 start to the new water year, which generally tracks with the start of snowfall.

“You don’t want to limp through with Basic Coordination, you’d want to put everything on the table you can,” Berggren said.

“We’re facing a crisis,” he continued. “We have tools available, we know what they are — we just need to implement them.”

A winter weather advisory will be in effect for northern Colorado from 6 p.m. Tuesday to 9 p.m. Wednesday, including parts of Boulder, Clear Creek, Gilpin, Grand, Jackson, Larimer and Summit counties, . Most of the area will see 2 to 10 inches of snow and up to 50 mph wind gusts, the advisory stated.

As of Tuesday morning, , snowfall amounts expected to accumulate by 6 a.m. Friday included:

• 2 inches at Winter Park, with up to 4 inches possible
• 4 inches at the Keystone Ski Area Summit, with up to 5 inches possible
• 4 inches at Bear Lake in Rocky Mountain National Park, with up to 9 inches possible
• 6 inches on Colorado 9’s Hoosier Pass near Breckenridge, with up to 8 inches possible
• 6 inches on Interstate 70’s Vail Pass, with up to 10 inches possible
• 8 inches on U.S. 6’s Loveland Pass, with up to 11 inches possible
• 7 inches on U.S. 40’s Berthoud Pass near Winter Park, with up to 9 inches possible
• 11 inches on Colorado 14’s Cameron Pass near Fort Collins, with up to 14 inches possible
• 10 inches on U.S. 34’s Milner Pass in RMNP, also known as Trail Ridge Road, with up to 13 inches possible
• 20 inches on Mount Zirkel, the highest summit of Colorado’s Park Range of the Rocky Mountains, with up to 36 inches possible

“Roads will become slippery in spots, especially through mountain passes. Travel could be very difficult,” forecasters wrote in the advisory. “The hazardous conditions will impact the Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning commutes.”

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 6pm Tuesday to 9pm Wednesday for the northern Colorado mountains above 9000 feet. Snow accumulations of 2 to 10 inches are expected and winds gusting up to 50 mph. Slick travel is possible!

— NWS Boulder (@NWSBoulder)

No snow is forecast for the Denver area, according to the weather service.

The sign describes the history of the Ute people, a Native American tribe that traditionally migrated seasonally between the mountains and the valleys of their homelands, which encompassed nearly all of modern-day Colorado and Utah.

It recounts the impact of settlers on the Ute people during Western expansion and how the U.S. government established a reservation system that reduced the tribe’s territory to only a sliver of its ancestral lands.

The sign is among the hundreds of items at national parks across the country that park staff have flagged for review — and possible removal or modification — by President Donald Trump’s administration in response to orders to purge parks of “improper partisan ideology” and accounts that “disparage” Americans.

Read the full story from our partner at .

Snowfall will start in the mountains Saturday afternoon and continue into Tuesday morning, . The storm is expected to be strongest between Saturday evening and Sunday morning, prompting the weather service to issue a .

The advisory, which will be in effect from 6 p.m. Saturday to 9 a.m. Sunday, covers parts of Boulder, Clear Creek, Gilpin, Grand, Jackson, Larimer, Park and Summit counties, according to the weather service.

“Plan on slippery road conditions,” forecasters said in the advisory. “Blowing snow may produce near whiteout conditions at times, particularly for mountain passes over the Continental Divide.”

As of Saturday morning, , snowfall expected to accumulate by 6 a.m. Tuesday included:

• 1/2 inch in Aurora, Arvada, Boulder, Brighton, Castle Rock, Centennial, Commerce City, Denver, Highlands Ranch, Littleton, Northglenn and Parker, with up to 2 inches possible.
• 1/2 inch at Denver International Airport, with up to 2 inches possible.
• 1 inch in Evergreen, with up to 3 inches possible.
• 3 inches in Georgetown and Breckenridge, with up to 4 inches possible.
• 4 inches on Willow Creek Pass, Vail Pass and at Winter Park, with up to 7 inches possible.
• 5 inches at Bear Lake in Rocky Mountain National Park, with up to 6 inches possible.
• 6 inches on Loveland Pass, with up to 7 inches possible.
• 7 inches on Berthoud Pass, with up to 9 inches possible.
• 8 inches on Cameron Pass, with up to 11 inches possible.

A red flag warning for “critical fire conditions” will remain in effect for the Denver area until 9 p.m. Saturday. Snow could start in the metro area as early as 1 a.m. Sunday and continue as late as 5 p.m., . The strongest chance for snow in the metro area will be from 3 a.m. to 5 a.m. Sunday.

Denver temperatures will drop overnight from a Saturday high of 76 to a low of 24, . Sunday temperatures will struggle to reach above freezing and drop even further overnight into Monday for a low of 16 degrees.

Rocky saw 4,171,431 visitors in 2025, an increase of 17,082 over 2024. Yosemite National Park took over fifth place with 4,278,413 due to a visitation surge of more than 156,000 over the year before. Yosemite officials reported in September that the park experienced one of its busiest summer seasons in years with visitation tracking 7% ahead of 2024.

The top five on the list in 2025 was typical of recent years except for the absence of Rocky. Great Smoky Mountains National Park was No. 1, as usual, with 11,527,939, accounting for 12% of all visits to national parks. Zion was No. 2 (4,984,525), followed by Yellowstone (4,762,988), Grand Canyon (4,430,653) and Yosemite.

The record attendance for Rocky came in 2019 at 4,670,053, which ranked it third that year. Since then, park officials have enforced a they say is needed to prevent overcrowding and resource damage.

Rocky’s timed-entry period will begin this year on the Friday before Memorial Day, May 22, and will run into October.

Rocky also ranked third in 2015 and 2018. Since the imposition of timed-entry reservations, it ranked fourth or fifth until last year.

Yosemite and Arches National Park have dropped their timed-entry reservation requirement for 2026.

Colorado’s other three national parks saw visitation declines in 2025. Mesa Verde ranked 43rd on the national park list at 463,130, down from 480,165 in 2024. Great Sand Dunes ranked 44th at 432,498, down from 437,661. Black Canyon of the Gunnison was 50th at 250,086, down from 335,862 in 2024.

Black Canyon’s 25% decrease was due to the lightning-caused South Rim Fire, which forced closure of the park in July. The South Rim Campground, East Portal Campground and Rim Rock Trail from South Rim Campground to Tomichi Point remain closed.

 will be in effect for the Front Range and Eastern Plains from 11 a.m. to 9 p.m. on Thursday, . As of Wednesday evening, the included parts of Adams, Arapahoe, Boulder, Broomfield, Douglas, Denver, El Paso, Elbert, Jefferson, Larimer, Lincoln, Logan, Morgan, Phillips, Sedgwick, Washington and Weld counties.

Wind gusts up to 60 mph and humidity values as low as 11% are forecast across northern Colorado, according to the weather service. In southern Colorado, relative humidity may drop into the single digits.

“Extremely critical” fire weather conditions are expected Thursday and Saturday between the foothills and the Eastern Plains, . A slight lull in wind on Friday will temporarily drop fire danger down to “critical.”

Critical fire weather conditions will occur this week, accelerating for the end of the week.

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will see the most widespread critical conditions with strong, gusty winds – peaking Thursday and Saturday. Avoid any outdoor burning this week.

— NWS Boulder (@NWSBoulder)

will also be in place between 4 a.m. Thursday and noon Friday for the northernmost state and part of Colorado’s mountains, according to the weather service. The — which cover Boulder, Clear Creek, Gilpin, Grand, Jackson, Larimer, Logan, Park and Weld counties, including Rocky Mountain National Park — predict wind gusts of up to 90 mph.

Winds stronger than 50 mph are considered “damaging,” according to the , which is part of the same federal agency as the weather service.

“Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines,” forecasters wrote in the warning. “Power outages are possible. Travel will be difficult, especially for high-profile vehicles.”

Snow will be possible from Thursday morning to Saturday afternoon in the mountains and from Thursday night to Friday night in the metro area, according to the weather service.

Colorado snow forecast as of Thursday morning

• 1 inch in Fort Collins, Greeley, Loveland and Fort Morgan, with up to 3 inches possible
• 2 inches in Aurora, Arvada, Denver and Commerce City, with up to 4 inches possible
• 3 inches in Centennial and Littleton, with up to 4 inches possible
• 3 inches in Boulder, Highlands Ranch and Lakewood, with up to 5 inches possible
• 4 inches in Castle Rock and Parker, with up to 6 inches possible
• 6 inches in Estes Park, with up to 8 inches possible
• 8 inches on U.S. 40’s Muddy Pass near Kremmling and Colorado 125’s Willow Creek Pass near Granby, with up to 10 inches possible
• 8 inches in Breckenridge and Georgetown, and at the Keystone Ski Area Summit, with up to 11 inches possible
• 9 inches in Nederland, with up to 11 inches possible
• 10 inches in Conifer and at Bear Lake in Rocky Mountain National Park, with up to 12 inches possible
• 11 inches in Eldora and Winter Park, and on Colorado 14’s Cameron Pass near Fort Collins and Interstate 70’s Vail Pass, with up to 15 inches possible
• 13 inches on U.S. 6’s Loveland Pass, with up to 15 inches possible
• 13 inches on U.S. 40’s Berthoud Pass near Winter Park, with up to 17 inches possible

A winter storm warning will be in effect for Colorado’s mountains — including parts of Jackson, Larimer, Grand, Boulder, Gilpin, Clear Creek, Summit and Park counties — from late Thursday night to late Friday night for heavy snow and strong winds, .

“Blowing snow will reduce visibilities and cause hazardous travel,” .

In the Front Range mountains and foothills, a separate winter weather advisory will also be in effect from late Thursday night to late Friday night for snow and wind, .

A system will bring accumulating snow to the mountains and foothills late Thursday night into Friday. A Winter Storm Watch and Winter Weather Advisory are in effect for those locations. Blowing snow will reduce visibilities and cause hazardous travel!

— NWS Boulder (@NWSBoulder)

As of Wednesday morning, for the Denver area included:

• 1 inch in Brighton, Broomfield, Commerce City and Denver, with up to 2 inches possible
• 1 inch in Lafayette, with up to 3 inches possible
• 2 inches at Denver International Airport
• 2 inches in Arvada, Aurora, Centennial, Highlands Ranch and Littleton, with up to 3 inches possible
• 3 inches in Boulder, Franktown and Parker, with up to 4 inches possible
• 4 inches in Castle Rock, Golden and Roxborough Park, with up to 5 inches possible

Snow will be possible in Denver between 11 p.m. Thursday and 4 a.m. Saturday, but the strongest chance for winter weather will be from 5 a.m. to 4 p.m. on Friday, .

Denver temperatures are expected to drop from the high 60s on Thursday to the low 30s by Friday morning, the weather service forecasts show.

In the mountains, according to the weather service, snowfall amounts will accumulate between 5 a.m. Wednesday and 5 a.m. Saturday:

• 6 inches on U.S. 40’s Muddy Pass near Kremmling and Colorado 125’s Willow Creek Pass near Granby, with up to 7 inches possible
• 6 inches on Interstate 70’s Vail Pass, with up to 11 inches possible
• 7 inches at the Keystone Ski Area Summit, with up to 9 inches possible
• 8 inches in Georgetown and Nederland, with up to 9 inches possible
• 9 inches in Winter Park and on U.S. 6’s Loveland Pass, with up to 12 inches possible
• 10 inches on Mount Zirkel, the highest summit of Colorado’s Park Range of the Rocky Mountains, with up to 12 inches possible
• 10 inches in Eldora, with up to 13 inches possible
• 11 inches on Colorado 14’s Cameron Pass near Fort Collins and at Bear Lake in Rocky Mountain National Park, with up to 13 inches possible
• 12 inches on U.S. 40’s Berthoud Pass near Winter Park and U.S. 34’s Milner Pass in RMNP, with up to 15 inches possible

Traces to 1/2 inch of snow are also expected on northern Colorado’s Eastern Plains, including in Crook and Sterling, by Saturday morning, according to the weather service.

Colorado’s mountain roads, including Interstate 70 at the Eisenhower-Johnson Tunnel and Berthoud Pass, were already snow-covered Tuesday morning, .

“With more snow to come throughout the day, a Winter Weather Advisory was issued for the Front Range Mountains,” forecasters said.

That will be in effect until 8 p.m. Tuesday for parts of Jackson, Larimer, Boulder, Grand, Gilpin, Clear Creek, Summit and Park counties, including Rocky Mountain National Park. Additional snow accumulations between 6 and 14 inches are possible on Tuesday, forecasters said in the alert.

As of Tuesday, :

• 2 inches on I-70’s Vail Pass, with up to 3 inches possible
• 3 inches in Winter Park, with up to 4 inches possible
• 4 inches in Eldora and on U.S. 6’s Loveland Pass, with up to 5 inches possible
• 4 inches on U.S. 40’s Berthoud Pass near Winter Park, with up to 7 inches possible
• 5 inches at Bear Lake in Rocky Mountain National Park, with up to 7 inches possible
• 6 inches on U.S. 34’s Milner Pass in RMNP, with up to 8 inches possible
• 7 inches on Colorado 14’s Cameron Pass near Fort Collins, with up to 8 inches possible
• 9 inches on Mount Zirkel, the highest summit of Colorado’s Park Range of the Rocky Mountains, with up to 11 inches possible

“Travel could be very difficult,” weather service forecasters stated in the . “The hazardous conditions will impact the Tuesday morning and evening commutes.”

Snow is expected to pause in the mountains Wednesday and resume Thursday before wrapping up early Saturday morning, .

In the Denver area, snow is most likely between 5 a.m. and 4 p.m. on Friday, . Rain is also forecast for the metro area during that time, so it’s unknown how much snow will stick.

Snow will be possible in Colorado’s mountains between Monday morning and Tuesday night, pausing on Wednesday and starting up again on Thursday, weather service forecasters said.

In lower elevations, including Denver, rain showers are forecast between Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, according to the weather service. Rain will also resume on Thursday, and snow will be possible in the metro area between Thursday and Friday.

Denver weather: Near-record heat forecast for city ahead of rain, snow

The cover three days. As of Monday, the following snow totals were expected to accumulate by 5 a.m. Friday:

• 1 inch in Georgetown, with up to 3 inches possible
• 2 inches on Interstate 70's Vail Pass and U.S. 40’s Muddy Pass near Kremmling, with up to 3 inches possible
• 2 inches in Eldora and Winter Park, with up to 4 inches possible
• 3 inches on U.S. 6’s Loveland Pass and Colorado 125’s Willow Creek Pass near Granby, with up to 4 inches possible
• 3 inches on U.S. 40’s Berthoud Pass near Winter Park, with up to 6 inches possible
• 4 inches at Bear Lake in Rocky Mountain National Park, with up to 5 inches possible
• 5 inches on U.S. 34’s Milner Pass in RMNP, with up to 7 inches possible
• 6 inches on Colorado 14’s Cameron Pass near Fort Collins and Mount Zirkel, the highest summit of Colorado's Park Range of the Rocky Mountains, with up to 9 inches possible