Summer monsoons and chances for a “super El Niño” in the fall may alleviate the worst of Colorado’s historic drought in the wake of a record-low mountain snowpack, bringing some relief to residents, scientists say.
Drought conditions are forecast to develop and worsen across the western half of the country through June, including in Colorado, according to a . But relief could be on the horizon, with above-average precipitation expected in Colorado from July to October, the state’s monsoon season, .
“We’re in bad drought conditions pretty much everywhere in the state, and so any sort of hope for relief out in the future, I think, is what people are looking for,” Colorado State Climatologist said. Schumacher is also an at Colorado State University and director of the .
Seasonal forecasts currently anticipate an active monsoon season in late summer and El Niño conditions in the fall and winter, Schumacher said.
“The chances are there that there will be a very strong El Niño,” Schumacher said. “But we don’t have a lot of historical data points to compare to for these super El Niños … and we don’t want to over-interpret those few times that itap happened in the past to determine what may come.”
Itap hard to predict how El Niño will affect Colorado, because the weather pattern routinely brings wet weather to the southwest states and dry weather to the northeast, Schumacher said. Colorado sits nearly in the middle.
“But, in general, when we go into El Niño in Colorado, it at least tilts the odds toward the wetter side of things,” he said. “La Niña, which we’ve been in for the last two years, tends to be when we see drought.”
La Niña conditions, , normally bring snow to Colorado’s northern mountains and dry weather to the rest of the state. Instead, this year, abnormally low snowpack shut down the state’s ski resorts early and has many residents planning their lawn care around water restrictions. This year’s March was also the hottest in documented history for many Colorado cities, including Denver, where more than a dozen heat records were broken.
What you need to know about Front Range drought restrictions
El Niño and La Niña are opposite ends of the -- a climate phenomenon based on water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that influences temperatures and precipitation around the globe, . The world is currently sitting in neutral, the middle of the two climate patterns.
Periods of El Niño and La Niña typically happen every two to seven years and last nine to 12 months, but they don't operate on a regular schedule, . Generally, El Niño years occur more frequently and, while they bring warmer temperatures globally, tend to be colder in Colorado, Schumacher said.
As of Thursday, NOAA forecasters of El Niño conditions between September and January, and a 25% chance of a very strong El Niño starting in October, also referred to as a “super” El Niño.
But before Colorado gets there, it's on track to see a wet summer season.
“The best case scenario is the rains come a bit early this year, and they’re slow and steady -- we get regular showers and thunderstorms every day … and that helps to keep the wildfire risk down and reduce the demand for water,” Schumacher said.
“I think the worst-case scenario is that we have an early and bad wildfire season because of how dry things are in the mountains, and then the monsoon rains come heavy later in the summer,” he continued. “Then we’re dealing with a lot of flash flood risk on those burn scars. I don’t know which of those is more plausible.”
Flash floods are more likely on wildfire burn scars because the burnt soil can’t absorb the water as well. Even just a little rain on burn scars can quickly lead to flash floods and debris flows, Schumacher said.
But the forecast isn't set in stone, especially several months out, he said, adding that "there’s always just a lot of uncertainty in terms of whatap going to happen.”
