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The Colorado River’s future will start being mapped today as U.S. Interior Secretary Gale Norton begins confronting the complex task of resolving a dispute among the seven states that rely on the river.

The issue is key for the Front Range, as many of our cities get water from the Colorado’s tributaries.

The first decision Norton faces is whether the Bureau of Reclamation should release more water from Lake Powell, still low after years of drought, into Lake Mead, where water levels have partly recovered. Norton will get an in-depth briefing this afternoon and may announce a decision afterward.

If Norton releases more water from Powell, the four upstream states (Colorado, Wyoming, Utah and New Mexico) will complain that their water supplies may be at risk if the drought that has haunted the West in recent years resumes. But if Norton keeps water in Powell, she will anger the three downstream states (California, Arizona and Nevada) that want to continue pulling their usual allocations from the lakes.

If the data is ambiguous, Norton should err on caution’s side. It would be only prudent to keep water in Powell until it further refills to near-normal levels.

Regardless of how she settles the first matter, Norton confronts another, longer-term problem: how to get the seven states to share the pain of water shortages. A 1922 compact allocates a share of water to each state, but in prolonged droughts there’s not enough to satisfy all the demands. Last week, the seven states failed to reach a consensus on how to deal with potential shortages.

The four upstream states historically have stood united on Colorado River issues. But this time, the lower basin states set aside their historic bickering and also crafted a united position. That’s not necessarily good for upstream interests: The huge populations and congressional delegations of California, Arizona and Nevada carry formidable political clout.

Upstream states might be open to compromise if they knew they wouldn’t shoulder the entire burden of a future drought. For example, Colorado already has imposed tough conservation measures, with Denver and other Front Range cities cutting water use by a third.

But conservation has been uneven downstream. California has reduced waste with strict use rules. Nevada is getting better at conservation. But Arizona has been profligate: During the worst drought in centuries, many cities didn’t even restrict lawn watering.

It would be illogical for Interior to tell Denver residents they couldn’t fill up their bathtubs, if the feds still allowed Phoenix folks to let water gush unused down the gutters.

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