Is Colorado, once a Republican redoubt that boasted a 7-2 GOP edge in our congressional delegation as recently as the 2002 election, headed to a 6-3 Democratic advantage in 2006?
It could happen. Democrats trimmed the GOP margin to 5-4 in 2004 by electing the Salazar brothers to the Senate and the 3rd Congressional District seat vacated by outgoing Republicans Ben Campbell and Scott McInnis, respectively. If U.S. Rep. Bob Beauprez runs for governor in 2006, his 7th District seat could well fall to Democrat Peggy Lamm or Ed Perlmutter. And if prairie firebrand Marilyn Musgrave is as vulnerable in eastern Colorado’s sprawling 4th CD as Republican strategists think she is, the GOP could lose that seat as well.
It is a maxim of politics that you can’t beat someone with no one, but Democrats think they have a potential winner in state Rep. Angie Paccione, D-Fort Collins. My Western drawl can’t do justice to her wondrously lyrical name (puhh-CHONE-ee) so I gave her the sobriquet la Pasionaria instead. It reflects the energy she brings to the often staid Colorado House of Representatives.
La Pasionaria (the passion flower) was the pseudonym used by Basque journalist Dolores Ibárruri writing prior to the Spanish Civil War. It became her nickname when she was elected to the Cortes, Spain’s parliament. In 1936, she rallied workers to resist Franco’s drive on Madrid in a famous radio speech that ended with the words: “The fascists shall not pass! No Pasaran.”
As chair of the majority Democratic Caucus, Paccione adopts the same attitude toward the anti-gay and anti-abortion bills that emanate from Republican social conservatives. No Pasaran. Bills by the likes of David Schultheis and Jim Welker shall not pass.
That would make Paccione a logical foe for her ideological opposite, Musgrave, who is just as passionate about promoting the religious right’s social agenda as Paccione is in opposing it.
Republicans rank Musgrave, along with Beauprez, among their 10 most vulnerable incumbents. How would Paccione fare against her in this sprawling prairie battleground that’s the size of Indiana?
As a native of Phillips County, where our family has farmed since 1887, I’d say Musgrave’s anti-gay, anti-abortion views are in sync with rural Coloradans on those issues. But Paccione reckons that fully 85 percent of the voters live in Weld and Larimer counties or the section of Boulder County that falls in the 4th CD. In those urbanized areas, Paccione’s pro-choice views could lure votes from Republican soccer moms.
Will we see a Musgrave-Paccione showdown? Paccione is thinking about it – thinking hard enough that those statistics on voter registration rolled readily off her tongue when I talked to her Monday. But part of her wants to stay in the Colorado House, where she’s eligible for two more terms and enjoys being in the majority. It’s too early to predict her decision, but the former women’s basketball star at Stanford is competitive by nature and I wouldn’t be surprised if Colorado’s la Pasionaria follows her Spanish counterpart’s path into the national legislative arena.
As for the second possible Democratic pick-up, it’s hard to see how any Republican could win the 7th CD if Beauprez runs for governor. Beauprez won by just 121 votes in 2002, when the two parties were evenly matched. Since then, Democrats have gained a lead of about 5,000 in registered voters.
Democrat Jim Polsfut took a hard look but passed on the race, which leaves Lamm and Perlmutter jockeying for the seat. Both are former legislators with generally moderate records that would leave them well positioned in a race against the likely Republican nominee, conservative Rick O’Donnell.
Jefferson County Treasurer Mark Paschall, a Republican, is also toying with the race. Lamm and Perlmutter probably light votive candles every night and pray that they’ll be lucky enough to face the far-right Paschall, but they’re unlikely to get that lucky. The more realistic fear for Republicans is that a duel with Paschall might force O’Donnell to tack so far to the right in the Republican primary that he’d be easy prey for Lamm or Perlmutter in November.
Bob Ewegen (bewegen@denverpost.com) is deputy editorial page editor of The Denver Post. He has written on state and local government since 1963.
