Baltimore – With 130,000 people expected for Saturday’s race, the Preakness is big, really big – but not that big.
Jerry Moss knows big when he sees it. Moss, the proud owner of the only Triple Crown candidate on the planet, attended the biggest party the world has ever known.
“Being at Woodstock in ’69, being on stage with Joe Cocker in front of half a million people,” said Moss, “that was pretty amazing.”
Moss, who co-founded A&M Records with Herb Alpert, has had his share of hot acts – the Police, Cat Stevens, Styx and Janet Jackson among them. He thinks he has one in Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo, but Pimlico Race Course oddsmaker Frank Carulli disagrees. He views Giacomo as a one-trick pony. And frankly, he has a lot of company.
Giacomo, your basic 50-to-1 longshot, came from 11th place in the home stretch to stun a 20-horse field at Churchill Downs. For his efforts, the son of Holy Bull has been rated a 6-to-1 shot by Carulli to win Saturday’s 130th running of the Preakness.
Three other horses will start the day at shorter odds.
The list of favorites includes Afleet Alex (5-2), High Fly (9-2) and Closing Argument (5-1), who finished third, 10th and second in the Derby. What gives? Don’t ask Moss. When he looks at Giacomo, he doesn’t see a one-hit wonder.
“The way I saw the Derby, he was the only one really running at the end,” said Moss, who named the colt after the 9-year-old son of Police frontman Sting. “That was a mile-and-a-quarter and this is 1 and three 16ths, so maybe that’s less relevant. But he was way, way better at the end.”
If Giacomo doesn’t win at Pimlico Race Course, he’ll have defied recent history. Each of the past three Derby winners – War Emblem, Funny Cide and Smarty Jones – has gone on to win the Preakness. That brought to six the number of times since 1997 the Triple Crown has been alive going into the Belmont Stakes, where dreams of immortality go to die.
Now comes Giacomo, the latest in a trio of rags-to-riches stories from the Triple Crown trail. Two years ago, Funny Cide, a gelding, captivated the sports world by winning the first two legs. Last year, Smarty Jones, the pride and joy of Philadelphia Park, of all places, had us holding our collective breath.
The obvious question: If they can win the Preakness, why can’t a 50-to-1 Derby shot?
Unlucky numbers
Several factors suggest the Preakness could be a different story from the drama that unfolded between Churchill Downs’ famed twin spires. For one, the shorter track doesn’t figure to favor Giacomo and the race’s other closers. For another, Giacomo was stuck with post position 13, your basic no-man’s land for Preakness starters.
Thirteen Preakness entries have broken from post position 13. Eight times they’ve finished 10th or worse, including five last-place or next-to-last finishes. Just the number, 13, was enough to make Giacomo’s owners nervous.
“We discussed that at the table” during Wednesday’s post-position draw, said Giacomo’s trainer, John Shirreffs. “There’s a 13 and a 14, which one are we going to take? Are you worried about number 13?’ I’m not superstitious, because I don’t choose to be superstitious. Obviously we would have preferred something else, but that’s the draw we got, so that’s the hand we play.”
Not that morning-line favorite Afleet Alex did much better with post position 12. But that may be the only factor working against the colt, whose career record includes six victories in 10 starts, including an 8-length win in the Arkansas Derby. One thing is certain before the horses go to post: If Afleet Alex doesn’t win, it won’t be because his handlers weren’t familiar with the track.
Afleet Alex’s trainer, Tim Ritchey, and jockey, Jeremy Rose, are veterans of the Delaware-Maryland racing circuit. Ritchey, in fact, has trained several horses that have run on the Preakness undercard.
“We’ve run here so many times,” Ritchey said. “Jeremy is very familiar with the race track and the little nuances. He’s obviously going to have more of a comfort level being here versus Churchill Downs, where he hadn’t been before. And we’ll be on a track where we’ve won a lot of races. It’s like a home-field advantage.”
No wonder Afleet Alex is the favorite. Count Shirreffs, whose horse became the biggest longshot in 92 years to win the Derby, among those buying into Afleet Alex’s favored status.
“I think those are good odds,” Shirreffs said. “Obviously, it’s a real nice horse, a great horse. He’s got a tremendous record in Grade 1s and stakes races, so, yeah, I sort of agree with them.”
Built for speed
The field is maxed out at 14, the first full card since 1992, but much of the attention this week has been on a horse who won’t be on the track. That would be Spanish Chestnut, an early-speed horse who forced the pace at Louisville, where the splits – a 22.28 quarter-mile, 45.38 half-mile and 1:09.59 three-quarter mile – were the second-fastest in Derby history.
In the process, Spanish Chestnut burned up several horses, including favorite Bellamy Road, who faded to seventh. With the pace so fast, Giacomo was able to pick up the pieces in the home stretch, a scenario that figures to be difficult to reprise Saturday.
“I would hope so,” said Ritchey, when asked if he expected a considerably slower pace. “That was a little crazy at the Derby. It benefited Giacomo, obviously, but you’ve got some of the best riders in the world. They’re not going to make the same mistake twice. If there’s somebody out there rolling on the front end, they’re going to sit back and let him go and try to gather him up about the one-half or three-eighths pole.
“I want him (Rose) to be sitting 8 or 9 lengths back early. That’s fine. But when you get to the three-eighths pole in the Preakness, you have to be within 4 or 5 lengths. And when you get to the head of the lane, you need to be within a length or two. The Derby, I always say, is won between the one-eighth pole and the wire. The Preakness is very similar, but you have to be a touch closer at the quarter pole.”
Said Shirreffs: “I know everyone is saying the pace will be slower, but I don’t think you can predict that. When the gate opens, a lot of things happen. We’ll see who’s there. What you use at the beginning, you don’t have at the end.”
Bottom line? The Triple Crown still is Giacomo’s to lose.
“We eyed (Giacomo) up and tried to get him at the Derby, but we couldn’t,” Rose said. “If I can have a clean three-eighths at the end, I’d love to have that. I’d take a quarter if I can get it. If I can get that last quarter clear, when (Afleet Alex is) relaxed, and they beat me … God bless ’em.”
Staff writer Jim Armstrong can be reached at 303-820-5452 or jmarmstrong@denverpost.com.
