New York – There is a point at which high oil prices will stifle demand for fuel and cause the economy to contract, though it may not be imminent even as crude futures soar to new heights near $60 a barrel.
That’s not to say the run-up in oil prices, which settled at a new record Monday, is just getting started. Many believe the opposite is true. But without seeing a significant drop in consumption or swelling of supplies, they are reluctant to predict the energy- market rally is about to fizzle.
“I’m expecting that we’re in the last leg of this uptrend, but I can’t say how high the last leg of that uptrend takes us,” said Tom Bentz, a broker at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures in New York. “I could also have miscalculated, and we could be in the early stages of this bull market.”
Light sweet crude for July delivery climbed 90 cents Monday to $59.37 a barrel, the highest-ever close on the New York Mercantile Exchange, where oil futures have been traded since 1983.
The latest surge came as the president of OPEC said the group will consider raising its output ceiling by half a million barrels as early as Friday in an effort to cool prices. Traders said the move would not have the desired effect.
Last week, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries raised its output target by that amount, but the market brushed the news aside, sending prices higher on concerns about a tight supply cushion, limited refining capacity and rising demand for gasoline and diesel.
U.S. gasoline prices averaged $2.16 a gallon, an increase of 44 percent over the past two years, but government data released last week showed that demand is up almost 3 percent from a year ago over the past four weeks at nearly 9.5 million barrels a day – a growth rate that surprised many analysts.
“The economy has accepted $50 oil. We accepted $2 gasoline too,” said oil tycoon Boone Pickens, who runs a billion-dollar hedge fund that invests in energy commodities and equities and profits when prices go up.
“I think within a year from now, you’re probably looking at $3 gasoline, and you’re probably looking at something over $60 for oil,” he said.
While soaring jet-fuel costs have been a major problem for the airline industry, higher energy prices have not taken as much of a toll on the broader economy as many analysts had previously feared.
In the first three months of the year, the U.S. economy grew at a 3.5 percent annual rate, according to the Commerce Department, slightly slower than the 4.5 percent pace a year earlier.
Still, brokers admit they are puzzled by the resilience of the economy and the seemingly unbridled growth in demand, except for the small percentage of Americans who are trading in their SUVs or buying hybrid gas- electric vehicles.
“Once we’re in this $55-$60 area, it’s been kind of hard to justify,” said oil analyst Andrew Lebow at Man Financial in New York. “But it is what it is. It seems like we’ll hit $60 at this point.”
But Lebow and other brokers said they remain on their toes, trying to anticipate some snippet of data that could augur a rapid decline in oil prices.
“Any reversal is going to be breathtaking when it happens,” said oil broker Mike Fitzpatrick at Fimat USA in New York.
In London, Brent crude for August delivery settled 45 cents higher at $58.32 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange.
OPEC president Sheik Ahmed Fahd Al Ahmed Al Sabah said Monday that “if the prices continue to the end of this week at the same level, I will start consulting my colleagues to release the 500,000.”
Last week, OPEC agreed to raise its official production ceiling to 28 million barrels on July 1, but that failed to soothe traders because the cartel’s output already exceeds that level as producers seek to cash in on high prices.
