Market jitters that pushed crude oil prices above $62 a barrel yesterday on the death of King Fahd are a reminder of how sensitive the rest of the world is to change in Saudi Arabia, which sits on a quarter of the world’s petroleum reserves.
Fahd, 82, was succeeded by his brother, Crown Prince Abdullah, 81, de facto monarch since 1995, when the late king suffered a debilitating stroke.
The quick transition to the man who’s run the country for the past decade was greeted as a sign of stability.
That’s important to the U.S., given the vital role of Saudi Arabia as an oil supplier and as an ally in the complicated arena of anti-terrorism.
Yet the change marks one more potential hot spot in the volatile Middle East, where the American military is stretched thin in Iraq, Iran is making nuclear noises and Israeli-Palestinian relations are at a delicate point.
The U.S. must watch carefully to see if Abdullah continues to follow his past course as an ally or sets off on a different path.
Abdullah, like his half-brother who preceded him on the throne and the kings before that, is a son of Abdul Aziz al Saud, founder of the Saudi dynasty. He named his half-brother, Sultan, 77, as crown prince.
With even the new leadership elderly, observers will keep a close eye on the next generation of the royal family, well-educated, technically-oriented princes who will be jockeying for position.
Abdullah has ruled the conservative kingdom by carefully walking a tightrope as an ally of the United States while fending off the radical elements in their own Wahhabi Muslim sect.
This led to contradictory policies, such as fighting terrorists while allowing wealthy Saudi interests to bankroll radical clerics and probably al-Qaeda itself.
Is there any doubt that Osama bin Laden would like to step in?
The Saudi government has sometimes tried to crack down on militants, and while he was crown prince Abdullah initiated some modest reforms.
But women still can’t vote and must be veiled in public. Limited municipal elections have been held, but uttering the phrase “constitutional monarchy” can get a person arrested. Conservative elements remain strong in the kingdom.
Because of Saudi Arabia’s strategic and economic importance, the U.S., has a major interest in its stability.
The Bush administration must encourage Saudi reforms even as it forges its relationship with Abdullah.
