Though they say they believe the budget fix offered by November’s Referendums C and D will fail at the ballot, opponents saw public sentiment drifting away from them this spring, according to an internal poll.
Paid for by an Illinois small- government foundation at the request of the Colorado Club for Growth, the poll also tested many of the arguments being made on both sides of the issue.
The pollster noted some “slippage” in public support for state spending limits under the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights, which Referendum C proposes temporarily lifting.
“There has clearly been some movement away from TABOR in the past five months,” the summary said. “While a small plurality are still opposed to changing TABOR in the form of Referendum C, it has become a contest that will be won by the side that makes the strongest case between now and Election Day.”
The poll found that support for budget reform, measured at 33 percent in January, had grown to 40 percent by May. Opposition, meanwhile, had shrunk from 52 percent to 44 percent, with 17 percent undecided.
The telephone survey of 600 Coloradans over two days in May had a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
(In July, a poll commissioned by The Denver Post with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points measured the Yes vote for Referendum C at 43 percent and No at 42 percent, with 15 percent undecided.)
The Vote Yes campaign, which has obtained the poll summary, believes the poll defined opponents’ campaign strategy.
“I think it’s their road map, because they’ve followed absolutely everything that’s in there,” Vote Yes campaign spokeswoman Katy Atkinson said. “It’s all right there. Everything they’ve done seems to be prescribed right in that document.”
The proponents have also done polling but will not share their results, Atkinson said.
Colorado Club for Growth spokesman Ross Kaminsky said opponents did not need a poll to see the flaws in Referendums C and D.
Independence Institute president Jon Caldara, who opposes the referendums, said the poll’s results were unremarkable.
“We’d be using the same arguments anyway,” he said. “A poll that confirms (existing arguments) doesn’t mean that it’s a blueprint.”
Staff writer Jim Hughes can be reached at 303-820-1244 or jhughes@denverpost.com.
