AFC WEST
Denver Broncos
Coach: Mike Shanahan
Last season: 10-6, second in AFC West
Key issues: The Broncos need their special teams to improve. Quarterback Jake Plummer has to cut down on mistakes, and the offense has to punch in touchdowns in the red zone. The team must create more turnovers and sacks.
What you need to know: The Broncos have a tough schedule. Thus, it is paramount that Denver doesn’t blow games late, as it has in recent seasons. Last year, the Broncos could have won the AFC West if not for squandered games against Jacksonville and Oakland. Overall, Denver can’t make mistakes and survive. The offense has to take advantage of its yardage totals, the defense can’t give up big games in the air and the special teams have to make a positive impact instead of a negative one.
Prediction: 10-6
Kansas City Chiefs
Coach: Dick Vermeil
Last season: 7-9, third in AFC West
Key issues: The Chiefs need to shore up their defense once again. They also need to find receiving complements to help offensive stars Priest Holmes and Tony Gonzalez.
What you need to know: Don’t expect the Chiefs to be as bad as they were last season. This team improved as the season progressed, winning all four of its games in December. That kind of success could continue. Much of Kansas City’s success will depend on a defense that is expected to be improved. If the Chiefs’ additions of Patrick Surtain and Derrick Johnson can solidify a porous defense, this team could contend again. Offensively, Kansas City will be strong. This team scored at least 30 points eight times last season. So, if the defense stiffens, the Chiefs will be a factor in what likely will be Vermeil’s final season.
Prediction: 8-8
Oakland Raiders
Coach: Norv Turner
Last season: 5-11, fourth in AFC West
Key issues: New receiver Randy Moss has to fit in off the field and be a good citizen. The aging defense has to find a way to keep the Raiders in games.
What you need to know: The Raiders will score points. That will not be a problem. Moss is perhaps the most dangerous player in the NFL. His arrival and subsequent teaming with excellent receiver Jerry Porter makes Oakland an aerial haven. Quarterback Kerry Collins has a strong arm and will find Moss and Porter deep. However, Collins is inconsistent and mistake-prone. Moss used to get frustrated in Minnesota with quarterback Daunte Culpepper, a much better player than Collins. So this could be an explosive situation. Plus, Oakland did little to upgrade its defense, which is old and devoid of much talent. Thus, the problems on defense and Collins’ issues will hurt Oakland.
Prediction: 6-10
San Diego Chargers
Coach: Marty Schottenheimer
Last season: 12-4, first in AFC West
Key issues: Can the Chargers show they are not a fluke? Same thing goes for quarterback Drew Brees, who had a Pro Bowl year in 2004.
What you need to know: The Chargers flew under the radar in 2004. They earned the No. 1 overall pick last year, then proceeded to fly through the season, stunning the AFC West. However, their dream season ended early in their playoff game, a home loss to the Jets. The Chargers are trying to show that last year wasn’t a fluke and that they can make a longer run in the postseason. Barring injury, San Diego should be strong. They return all 22 starters. Brees will be motivated. He is in a contract year and wants to show the Chargers that he and not 2004 top pick Philip Rivers is their guy. Brees is surrounded by a great offense, including star running back LaDainian Tomlinson and tight end Antonio Gates. If Brees doesn’t take a step back, this team will be difficult to beat again.
Prediction: 10-6
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Coach: Brian Billick
Last season: 9-7, second in AFC North
Key issues: Billick’s status as an offensive genius is on the line. If the Ravens’ offense can’t keep up with their defense this year, the genius tag may dissipate.
What you need to know: This defense may not be as strong as it was when it led Baltimore to a Super Bowl title five years ago. But it’s close. Stars abound on this unit. Linebacker Ray Lewis, safety Ed Reed, end Terrell Suggs and cornerbacks Chris McAlister and Samari Rolle are among the best at their positions in the NFL. Baltimore will win many games on defense. The problem is, it will have to. The team may be losing patience with former top pick Kyle Boller, who has not developed quickly. Still, he has help with running back Jamal Lewis and new receiver Derrick Mason. If the offense can carry its load, the Ravens will be Super Bowl contenders.
Prediction: 11-5
Cincinnati Bengals
Coach: Marvin Lewis
Last season: 8-8, third in AFC North
Key issues: The team needs quarterback Carson Palmer to continue his development. If so, the Bengals could be dangerous.
What you need to know: Lewis’ program is on the rise. Cincinnati was strong last season at times but also showed signs of the Bengals of the past. Expect to see a mature and more consistent team. The team has talent on both sides. Of course, it begins with Palmer. In his second season as the starter, the talented Palmer should be more consistent than he was last year. He has plenty of help. Running back Rudi Johnson is one of the most underrated backs in the NFL, and receiver Chad Johnson is a blossoming superstar. Defensively, Cincinnati is solid enough to make a playoff run.
Prediction: 9-7.
Cleveland Browns
Coach: Romeo Crennel
Last season: 4-12, fourth in AFC North
Key issues: Crennel will need to prove he can run his own show, as opposed to being a soldier in Bill Belichick’s army.
What you need to know: This will be a work in progress. Crennel will run his program just as Belichick did. Thus, he will be no-nonsense and concentrate on fundamentals on offense, and run an aggressive 3-4 defense. Crennel doesn’t have a whole lot to work with, though. It could be a long first season as a head coach. Quarterback Trent Dilfer is strictly a stopgap, and former Denver running back Reuben Droughns could have trouble running behind an offensive line that is inferior to the the Broncos’. The defense also is thin. Crennel may be a good hire for down the line, but his Super Bowl days, for now, are over.
Prediction: 3-13.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Coach: Bill Cowher
Last season: 15-1, first in AFC North
Key issues: It’s all about Big Ben. Second-year quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is no longer under the radar. Can he handle it?
What you need to know: The Steelers and Roethlisberger – the most successful rookie quarterback in NFL history – have a mountain of pressure. Can they do it again? No one expected the brilliant regular-season record. Now, they will. The Steelers weren’t as good as they showed last year, and they’ll likely slip a few rungs this year. Roethlisberger is a good fit for the offense, but he made several mistakes in the playoffs. He’ll have to improve. Pittsburgh also will need Jerome Bettis, likely in his final year, to carry the load and make sure disgruntled receiver Hines Ward is motivated. Defensively, this team should be strong and likely will be the determining factor for whether the Steelers will be a playoff team.
Prediction: 10-6
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Coach: Mike Mularkey
Last season: 9-7, third in AFC East
Key issues: It’s all about first-year starter J.P. Losman. Can the Tulane product turn the Bills from an near-playoff team to a playoff team?
What you need to know: The Bills are building the right way, but they actually may make a step back. Under Mularkey, the Bills finished 9-3 after starting 0-4. They were better than most NFL teams by the end of the season but failed to make the playoffs. However, they may not make the postseason again, because the Losman era is starting. Teams with young quarterbacks often struggle. But Losman will have help. Running back Willis McGahee is a star in the making, as is receiver Lee Evans. The defense also is solid. This is a team to watch if Losman can develop quickly.
Prediction: 9-7.
Miami Dolphins
Coach: Nick Saban
Last season: 4-12, fourth in AFC East
Key issues: Plenty. Saban has a major task ahead of him with a poor offense, an old defense and an unpredictable Ricky Williams.
What you need to know: This team could be less talented than last year. Saban has all the makings of becoming a stalwart coach like his NFL mentor, Bill Belichick. But times may be lean early. The Dolphins were horrible in the preseason, and their overall roster is thin. Former Denver quarterback Gus Frerotte has a strong arm, but he is not mobile and the Dolphins don’t have a great line. Ronnie Brown could struggle as a rookie at running back, and Williams will miss the first four games. Defensively, this team used to win games. Now, it has gotten old and is not capable of carrying the team. It could be a long year.
Prediction: 5-11.
New England Patriots
Coach: Bill Belichick
Last season: 14-2, first in AFC East
Key issues: The Patriots, winners of three of the past four Super Bowls, have to show they can win it all again without coordinators Charlie Weis, Romeo Crennel and linebacker Tedy Bruschi.
What you need to know: Never count out the champions. Many observers expect Bill Belichick to take a step back because of the departures of his top assistants and the stroke-induced loss of Bruschi. However, the Patriots are the team to beat in the NFL. Belichick has a great system working on both sides of the ball and, of course, quarterback Tom Brady beautifully runs that system. Remember, this team never has been about individuals. This is an ensemble group. Sure, the Patriots may lose a few more games this year than usual, but until someone proves otherwise, New England is the still the class of the NFL.
Prediction: 11-5.
New York Jets
Coach: Herman Edwards
Last season: 10-6, second in AFC East
Key issues: Quarterback Chad Pennington has to stay healthy, and running back Curtis Martin has to show there’s still tread on the tires.
What you need to know: This is a team that could put it all together. If New England takes a step back, the Jets could be poised to unseat them. If it weren’t for former kicker Doug Brien, this team would have been in the AFC title game last year. But Pennington has to come off a shoulder injury well. He already has a weak arm, so he doesn’t need any other problems. Martin led the NFL with 1,697 yards last year. If he can have another big year, so should the Jets. Defensively, the Jets are strong. End John Abraham and middle linebacker Jonathan Vilma are superstars. The Jets could be, too.
Prediction: 11-5.
AFC South
Houston Texans
Coach: Dom Capers
Last season: 7-9, third in AFC South
Key issues: Can quarterback David Carr show he was worth a top pick and make the next step, which is leading the young Texans to the postseason?
What you need to know: The Texans may be in a fish-or-cut-bait situation. And coach Dom Capers and general manager Charlie Casserly may be the ones dangling on the hook. Word is ownership wants to see the young talent on this team result in a playoff run. A lot of this season will ride on a shaky offensive line and its ability to protect Carr, who was sacked more times than a can of beans. If Carr gets time, he and star receiver Andre Johnson can do damage. Plus, running back Domanick Davis is underrated. Defensively, the group is inexperienced but fast and has playmaking ability. This could be the year a move is made. It better be or changes likely will be on the horizon.
Prediction: 8-8.
Indianapolis Colts
Coach: Tony Dungy
Last season: 12-4, first in AFC South
Key issues: Can the greatness of Peyton Manning be enough for the Colts to finally surpass New England in the AFC. Will Manning get any help from his defense?
What you need to know: Manning is getting to know what Broncos quarterback John Elway felt early and midway through his career. It’s a feeling of not being able to do enough. Even after the best single-season performance by a quarterback in NFL history, Manning is being questioned not only because he just can’t win the big one but that he can’t even get there. But in 2005, as in the past, the Colts’ ultimate fate won’t be up to Manning and his wonderful cast of offensive complements. It’s up to the Colts’ defense. League observers have noted that Dungy’s defense isn’t much better than it was last year. End Dwight Freeney is a star, but he doesn’t have much help. Thus, Manning may not have enough help again, either.
Prediction: 13-3.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Coach: Jack Del Rio
Last season: 9-7, second in AFC South
Key issues: Can quarterback Byron Leftwich stay healthy, and can he improve on what he showed last year? Can this team continue to have the late-game success?
What you need to know: The Jaguars are one of the NFL’s most intriguing teams. They could make a serious playoff run, or they could be exposed for being lucky last year. Eight of Jacksonville’s nine wins in 2004 were by seven points or fewer. That type of fortune doesn’t usually continue for more than a season. Plus, this team has holes on both sides of the ball. Plus, Del Rio is not on great terms with management. Thus, there are plenty of explosive possibilities here. If it all comes together, the Jaguars could be dangerous … or they could stumble and take a few steps back. That’s where this vote goes.
Prediction: 6-10.
Tennessee Titans
Coach: Jeff Fisher
Last season: 5-11, fourth in AFC South
Key issues: Can quarterback Steve McNair, the heart and soul of this team, come back healthy and successful? If not, this team is in trouble.
What you need to know: It likely will be another long year for the Titans, a team used to be at the top of the conference, not the bottom. But that’s where Fisher, one of the league’s top coaches, likely will be again. The Titans are in the midst of a major rebuilding program. There isn’t much talent on this roster. McNair, who is perpetually dealing with injuries, says he’s healthy. But he may not be for long. He just doesn’t have much help, so expect a very poor season in Tennessee.
Prediction: 4-12.
