It’s been a tough year for bond managers. Returns are low and tightly bunched across sectors, underscoring the fact that fixed income has been a difficult area in which to shine. But some funds have managed to do just that.
Morningstar Inc., which bestows the Oscars of the fund world each January, recently identified a few of the top contenders in the fixed-income realm. The award goes to managers with superior long-term track records who have posted outstanding results for the previous year and demonstrated strong commitment to their shareholders.
With bond yields low and few opportunities in the corporate market, “there have been relatively few ways for managers to distinguish themselves from the rest of the pack this year,” said Scott Berry, an analyst with Morningstar. Returns have been clumped in a tight range, with the average short-term fund gaining just 1.2 percent and the average long-term fund rising only 2.6 percent.
The surprise of the year has been that long-term funds have done better than their short-term counterparts, although the Federal Reserve has been steadily raising interest rates for the past 15 months, from a 1 percent federal funds rate to the current 3.5 percent.
Typically, long bonds are more sensitive to such hikes, but they haven’t suffered as expected. This has contributed to a challenging environment for bond managers, said Mark Kiesel, a senior member of PIMCO’s investment strategy and portfolio management group.
“This was totally unexpected and it has fascinated people, including us. Nobody could have predicted this,” Kiesel said. “It’s made for a challenging market in terms of predicting yields.”
Of course, Kiesel notes, interest rates aren’t the only thing bond managers monitor. There’s also duration, their position on the yield curve and the quality of issues they hold.
They watch volatility and can choose which sectors to invest in, from Treasuries, municipals and mortgages to corporate issues, TIPs, international and emerging markets and high yield.
For skilled managers, there have been opportunities.
When the general consensus was to avoid long bonds, some took a chance and held onto them, and were rewarded.
For others, the credit downgrades of Ford Motor Co. and General Motors Corp. presented buying opportunities.
The automakers’ bonds dropped dramatically following their initial downgrades in April, but they rebounded over the following months. Managers who got in at the right time were able to book gains.
Others benefited by dipping into less-traveled areas of the market, such as bank loans, which come with credit risk and require some extra research. High yield has also held up fairly well this year, though many analysts feel it’s reaching the end of its cycle.
“One of the overall themes has been flexibility. Managers that were nimble enough to take advantage of these opportunities are the ones who have shined,” Berry said.
“They’ve been flexible, and in some cases they’ve been more creative than other managers.”
Morningstar’s short list of top performers includes previous fixed-income managers of the year Bill Gross of PIMCO Total Return (PTTRX), Dan Fuss of Loomis Sayles Bond (LSBRX) and the team at Western Asset Core Bond (WATFX). A total of 24 funds met the criteria, including eight taxable and two municipal funds at Vanguard Group, which Berry said reflects the importance of low expenses when returns are tight and yields are paltry.
“Vanguard dominated; they blew away the screen … because of their low expenses,” Berry said.
“If a fund has low costs, it’s an unbelievable advantage. If a mutual fund has an expense ratio of 0.5 percent, and it’s competing against one with a 1 percent expense ratio, that half percent is nearly insurmountable in this environment.”
