The extent of sea ice coating the Arctic Ocean is at record low levels for the fourth year in a row and Arctic sea ice is likely to disappear by the end of the century, University of Colorado researchers reported Wednesday.
Ice in September stretched across the smallest area in 26 years, said Ted Scambos with the National Snow and Ice Data Center at CU.
In the early 1990s, some believed that a natural climate cycle called the Arctic Oscillation was helping melt the ice. Since that cycle has disappeared, however, the sea ice has continued to decline, most likely because of human-emitted greenhouse gases, Scambos said.
The disappearance of Arctic sea ice and further warming of that region could have major weather repercussions researchers say. Many have predicted it will dry out the West by changing storm tracks, for example.
The change also appears to be becoming self-sustaining: the increased open water absorbs solar energy that would otherwise be reflected back into space by bright white ice, said Scambos, who compiled the data along with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
The findings were released on the center’s website, nsidc.org.
“Feedbacks in the system are starting to take hold,” Scambos said. “The consecutive record- low extents make it pretty certain a long-term decline is underway.”
The findings echo recent computer simulations showing that a buildup of smokestack and tailpipe emissions could lead to a transformed Arctic later this century, when much of the once- ice-locked ocean would become open water in summer.
Expanding areas of open water in summer could be a boon to whales and cod stocks, and the ice retreat could create summertime shipping shortcuts between the Atlantic and Pacific.
But a host of troubles could lie ahead as well. Increased meltwater and icebergs, and thus an accelerated rise in sea levels, could threaten coastal areas. The loss of sea ice also could hurt polar bears and Inuit seal hunters.
Denver Post staff writer Katy Human contributed to this report.