Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans. The physical damage is obvious, but there is some less-visible devastation as well.
The routine act of voting also was battered by the wind and floods. Already two elections have been postponed in two Louisiana parishes. And there’s a question whether life, and voting, will return to normal by next February, when New Orleans is scheduled to have a municipal election.
Louisiana has an unusually high number of elections. Many of them are local, judicial or bond issues, but the state schedules them. “The legislature wants it that way,” said Jennifer Marusak, confidential assistant to Louisiana Secretary of State Al Ater.
Louisiana has 14 election dates scheduled this year – or had, until Katrina blew in.
Now the last two elections of the year, on Oct. 15 and Nov. 12, have been “delayed until such time as [they] may be rescheduled,” by order of the governor.
That’s if the voters can be found. About 400,000 Louisiana registered voters – a seventh of the state total – scattered to dozens of states, including Colorado, following orders to evacuate.
Most of them, presumably, will be back. But in the meantime, they cause massive logistical problems for the state’s election officials.
“We’re trying to find out where all our people are,” said Marusak.
Those 400,000-plus displaced voters are eligible for absentee ballots. But here’s one example of the problems facing officials – the Red Cross, citing confidentiality concerns, won’t release information about the people in its shelters, Marusak said.
The state not only needs to know who they are, it needs to know what precinct they come from before it can issue absentee ballots.
Marusak said a task force is “trying to find out how we are going to pull this off.”
To handle part of the problem, Louisiana is considering sending a team and voting equipment to the Houston Astrodome, where about 20,000 evacuees are staying. “But we have no way of knowing how many registered voters are there,” Marusek said. If there are only a couple of hundred, it’s a waste of time and money.
Then there’s this: Some precinct polling places were in private homes – 43 of 116 in Orleans Parish, Marusak said, because no public buildings were available. “There’s a very good chance that most of those are no longer in existence.”
Emergency legislation? There’s talk of a special session of the state legislature in late October. But Marusak said elections officials aren’t quite sure what to ask for. It’s hard to anticipate every problem. “Every day we think of something else.”
In addition to logistics, there are questions about how the exodus might affect politics in Louisiana long-term. Democrats are 55 percent of the state’s electorate – Republicans are 24 percent – but the state went for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004.
Political experts, according to a Sept. 11 Associated Press report, assume most of those who left were Democrats. It’s not a pretty assumption, but there’s some rationale to it.
Republicans were more likely to have credit cards and working motor vehicles and could escape until things were cleaned up. The assumption is they’ll be back.
Poorer folks, though, couldn’t get out without help, and once they left, they’ll have a tougher time getting back. The stereotype assumes they’re mostly Democrats.
Everyone in Orleans Parish was ordered to evacuate. That included 299,298 voters, said Marusak. More than 200,000 of those voters are Democrats. Only 36,000 are Republicans. Of the Democrats, 154,000 are black; of the Republicans, 28,000 are white. That suggests Katrina may help Republicans statewide, but not so much in New Orleans – if the Democrats return.
Marusak said the plan now is not to delay the February city election in New Orleans. If the city is deemed “open and operational, by law we have to have the election.” If the people who left haven’t returned, they’ll no longer be considered New Orleans voters.
When will things get back to normal? “I have no idea,” Marusak said.
Fred Brown (punditfwb@aol.com), retired Capitol Bureau chief for The Denver Post, is also a former national president of the Society of Professional Journalists.
