Recent warnings about Iraq’s pending constitutional vote merit close attention.
One came from Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, who said Iraq is headed toward disintegration and could drag the entire region into war. “There is no dynamic now pulling the nation together. All the dynamics are pulling the nation apart,” he said. Diplomats rarely make blunt comments publicly, but Saud said he already tried to privately warn Bush administration officials.
Meanwhile, a respected think tank, the International Crisis Group, said that unless serious flaws in the constitution can be fixed, Iraq will likely slide toward full-scale civil war.
The IGC didn’t explicitly echo Saud’s grim assessment, but the risk is clear. Strategically located Iraq has some of the world’s largest oil fields, creating enormous incentives for mischief-making neighbors to try to manipulate its internal affairs.
In August, Iraq’s provisional legislature adopted a proposed constitution that satisfies Iraq’s Shiite majority as well as the country’s Kurdish community – but could not win the support of Sunni leaders. Thus the constitutional vote set for Oct. 15 risks deepening Iraq’s sectarianism.
Negotiations have continued without progress. It isn’t clear to us that Sunni leaders are prepared to accept any proposal. Sunnis, the minority in Shiite-dominated Iraq, held power and wealth under Saddam Hussein and have the most to lose. They have been unwilling to cede influence, wary of retaliation from Shiites and Kurds.
Many of the Kurds yearn for full independence, but they are satisfied for now with significant provincial autonomy and the prospect of oil receipts. Shiite provinces hold much of Iraq’s oil wealth and the Shiite majority stands to gain whether the constitution is adopted or Iraq flies apart.
Kurds and Shiites surely will vote for the document and Sunnis against. Sunni clerics are urging Sunnis to go to the polls but it isn’t a ringing endorsement of democracy – if Sunnis vote in large numbers and yet lose, the result may rattle the validity of the new government and further fuel the insurgency.
The constitution enhances the political power of Shiite clerics and lets Iraq draw closer to Iran – a headache for the U.S. since Iran recently installed a stridently anti-American regime.
Even at this late date we hope Sunni leaders will participate in the difficult transition to a democratic Iraq. The danger otherwise is that approval of a constitution may erode rather than enhance stability in a region where a bad situation could get even worse.
