Setting up a new democracy in the turbulent Middle East is a fearsome undertaking, but we like to think that it can succeed in Iraq in steps, large and small. One large step lies ahead next weekend when a draft constitution goes to the voters.
As Iraqis were picking up election material this week, they continued to suffer attacks that only emphasize the daily menace.
Next Saturday’s election is fraught with opportunity and risk. If the constitution is approved and accepted as a credible document for governance, it will be a stabilizing moment on the democratic path. But Sunni leaders hope to defeat the document and if they cannot accept defeat, a disputed “yes” vote could result in an emboldened anti-government insurgency. Gen. George Casey, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, said last week that such insurgencies typically have a nine-year duration.
And if the Sunnis manage to block the constitution altogether? It could lead to fresh negotiations and perhaps ultimately to a workable compromise – or to chaos and even civil war.
In the face of such uncertainty, growing numbers of Americans are questioning the wisdom and price tag of President Bush’s Iraq policy. Looking for support, the president tried yet again this week to frame the issue as a front for counterterrorism. He declared Thursday that Islamic radicals are using Iraq as a base for attacks and that America will keep its nerve and “win that victory” despite the “temptation in the middle of a long struggle to seek the quiet life.”
Bush said more than 80 Iraqi battalions are fighting along U.S. forces, giving, it seems, false hope that Iraqi forces will be able to replace American troops anytime soon. Casey told the Senate Armed Services Committee last week that only one battalion, or 300 troops, was capable of operating independent of American forces. Previously, U.S. officials said there were three groups so capable.
A critical moment arrives when Iraqis go to the polls. Approval will breathe hope among Iraqis and Americans alike of a U.S. withdrawal. The president is cautioning against any such optimism, instead declaring that “wars are not won without sacrifice and this war will require more sacrifice, more time and more resolve.” He lashed out at critics who say the war has fueled the insurgency, yet just last week Casey said that troop reductions were required to “take away one of the elements that fuels the insurgency … .” Such conflicting sentiments within U.S. circles underscore the treacherous challenges that lie ahead for Iraq.
