For three of the four head coaches in the NFC North – which may be even worse than baseball’s National League West – the task for the remaining schedule is simple: Win the division or be fired.
A brutal situation? Sure, but so is the play in the division. While the NL West champion San Diego Padres needed a final-week surge to finish with a winning record, there’s a strong chance the NFC North winner will have a losing record.
The North champion is more likely to finish 6-10 than 9-7. It’s late October, and just two teams in the division – Chicago and Detroit – have two victories. Green Bay and Minnesota are 1-4 heading into their epic clash today.
As a result of pathetic play in the division, the coaches are sure to pay. Chicago’s Lovie Smith might be the only safe coach in the division. He is in his second season with the Bears, who have shown some progress. Barring a complete meltdown, it would be a stunner to see him get the ax at the end of the season.
The other coaches – Detroit’s Steve Mariucci, Green Bay’s Mike Sherman and Minnesota’s Mike Tice – are in deep trouble. Only a division title would be likely to save them. It would be tough to fire a coach after a playoff berth, even if accomplished with a record under .500.
Tice, though, could be an exception. If the Vikings squeak to a division crown with a 7-9 record, he very well would be gone anyway. Tice is more of a dead man walking than Sean Penn was. This embattled coach on this sinking ship might require a 10-6 record to stick around. That means the Vikings would have to win nine of their final 11 games. Good luck.
Expect wholesale changes in this division.
Lewis’ disappearance
Baltimore: Among the Ravens’ many issues is the sudden ineffectiveness of former Pro Bowl running back Jamal Lewis. After coming off a federal sentence for a drug conviction, in which he spent his offseason in a halfway house, Lewis, 26, hasn’t been himself. This is the same player who set the NFL single-game rushing record with 295 yards in 2003, when he ran for 2,066 yards. In 2005, though Lewis has only 292 yards and one touchdown on 98 carries.
Lewis’ backup, Chester Taylor, has 202 yards on 35 carries. If the season continues to get away from the Ravens – who had high playoff hopes in training camp – coach Brian Billick may have to go with Taylor as his top back.
Running backs can fizzle without much notice. Perhaps his personal issues, along with wear and tear, have burned out Lewis.
Decision on top pick
Houston: If the Texans keep up their miserable pace, they’ll go from supposed playoff contenders to having the No. 1 overall draft pick next April. The Texans, who play undefeated Indianapolis today, are 0-5 and the only winless team in the NFL.
Their offense is in shambles, and it’s likely there will be coaching changes in January. It’s not too early to talk about what Houston might do with the top pick.
Southern California’s Matt Leinart will be the first quarterback taken, but the Texans made David Carr the top pick in 2002. Although Carr hasn’t been terrific, he has no protection. The Texans owe Carr an $8 million bonus next spring, so they must decide what to do quickly.
It may make sense to keep Carr and give him some help. USC running back Reggie Bush would be a perfect complement. A combination of Carr, Bush and Andre Johnson could improve the offense in a hurry.
Goodbye, Mr. Smith
Minnesota: There is a good chance the career of running back Onterrio Smith is over. There is almost no chance of Smith – who is serving a one-year NFL suspension for violating the league’s substance-abuse policy – will return to Minnesota.
New Minnesota ownership has vowed to clean up the off-the-field mess and the lack of discipline that has clouded this team for years. On the heels of the cruise boat sex scandal, there is no way ownership will allow Smith to come back next year. His fate may have been sealed when days after the boat scandal broke, he was named in a civil suit. He is being sued for the sexual assault of a disabled woman.
With his failed drug tests and this case, it’s hard to imagine any team willing to touch Smith, 24, when he comes off his suspension. Smith also had issues in college at Tennessee and Oregon.
Look for Patriots to rally
New England: The Broncos may have gotten their hands on the Patriots at a good time. At 3-3, the Super Bowl champions likely will rebound after their bye.
The Patriots have been ravaged by injuries, but players such as Richard Seymour, Willie McGinest and Troy Brown will soon heal. The return of heart-and-soul linebacker Tedy Bruschi from a February stroke also should boost the team.
Just as important as the Patriots’ returning health is their upcoming schedule. They have had a difficult early stretch, playing a string of Carolina, Pittsburgh, San Diego, Atlanta and Denver. The Patriots host undefeated Indianapolis in two weeks, but they’ll also play two games each with AFC East foes Buffalo, Miami and New York, all very winnable games. Do not count out the defending Super Bowl champions.
Jordan doesn’t rule
Oakland: Raiders running back LaMont Jordan is the early leader for the free-agent bust of the year. The Raiders paid star money to this career backup when they signed him to a five-year, $27 million deal early in free agency.
Jordan has been less than a big-money player for the Raiders. In Oakland’s four losses, Jordan has not been able to establish a rushing attack, and the Raiders have been a one-dimensional team with Kerry Collins directing a predictable passing game. With grand hopes in the offseason, Oakland is 31st in the league in rushing offense. Jordan is 25th in the NFL in rushing with 318 yards.
Oakland shouldn’t be surprised by his lack of an impact. Jordan was fine as an injury replacement with the Jets, but he never proved he was worth a starting nod or a huge contract.
Rivers being run out?
San Diego: There’s been rampant speculation regarding the Chargers’ quarterback situation for more than a year. A trade has been expected since supposed stopgap signal-caller Drew Brees developed out of nowhere last season with No. 4 overall pick Philip Rivers on the bench.
The Chargers made a trade involving a quarterback Tuesday, just beating the deadline. They brought in A.J. Feeley, who was acquired from Miami for No. 3 quarterback Cleo Lemon. With Feeley clearly the backup of the future, it appears the Chargers will deal Brees or Rivers in the offseason. Look for Rivers to be dealt next year. Brees has continued to develop and has a great rapport with the offense. Many think Rivers is ready to run his own offense. There’s sure to be plenty of interest in him around draft time next year.
Coaches up in arms
The following are the records of each NFC North coach:
Lovie Smith, Chicago
Year Record Finish
2004 5-11 Fourth
2005 2-3
Steve Mariucci, Detroit
Year Record Finish
2003 5-11 Fourth
2004 6-10 Third
2005 2-3
Mike Sherman, Green Bay
Year Record Finish
2000 9-7 Third
2001 12-4 Second
2002 12-4 First
2003 10-6 First
2004 10-6 First
2005 1-4
Mike Tice, Minnesota
Year Record Finish
2001 0-1 Fourth
2002 6-10 Second
2003 9-7 Second
2004 8-8 Second
2005 1-4
Bill Williamson can be reached at 303-820-5450 or bwilliamson@denverpost.com.
