Washington – Americans have turned so sour about the state of the country and their lives that Republican strategists fear they could rise in a wave of anger and sweep Republicans out of power in Congress in next year’s elections, much as they swept the Democrats out in 1994.
Voters haven’t yet turned to the Democrats as a viable alternative. But their anxiety about Iraq, the economy, gasoline prices and the overall performance of their federal government has even some Republican strategists fearing the November 2006 elections.
“This House of Representatives’ Republican majority is in jeopardy,” said Frank Luntz, a GOP strategist who helped his party capture Congress in 1994.
“Today,” added Republican pollster Ed Goeas, “President Bush and Republicans face a political environment that, as reflected in current polling numbers, is the most negative environment of his presidency.”
Beyond that, Bush and GOP lawmakers are hindered in their ability to wage a political comeback. They’re torn by internal fights over Bush’s nomination of Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court and soaring federal spending. And they face a litany of woes beyond their control. Among them: a criminal investigation into White House leaks of a CIA officer’s name; a U.S. death toll in Iraq that passed the 2,000 mark Tuesday; and a coming surge in winter home-heating costs.
A new bipartisan poll released Tuesday underscored the problems Republicans face one year from midterm elections, when they must defend their 55-44-1 majority in the Senate and their 231-202-1 majority in the House.
The survey was conducted jointly by Goeas, who works for GOP congressional candidates, and Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. It was sponsored by George Washington University.
The poll found that 66 percent of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track, while 28 percent said it was headed in the right direction.
It found 44 percent approve of the way Bush is handling his job, while 54 percent disapprove.
Republicans in Congress won a 44 percent favorable rating, and the Republican Party overall 45 percent. Voters were 47 percent favorable to Democrats in Congress; 48 percent were favorable to the Democratic Party overall.
“It is difficult to believe how much the battleground of public opinion has changed in 11 months,” said F. Christopher Arterton, dean of George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management. “After the 2004 election, Bush and the Republicans stood virtually unchallenged in the center of the ring. Now, they’re on the ropes, from self-inflicted blows.”
