Renee Coon, a travel agent in Erie, Pa., has some advice for her clients who want to take a trip the week between Christmas and New Year’s Day: Don’t go.
She rattles off the realities of traveling during the holiday crunch, including packed flights, long minimum-stay requirements imposed by resorts, bustling crowds at prime family destinations and, more than ever, sky-high prices.
“This year everything has gone up,” said Coon, who works for North Coast Travel, adding that traveling around the holidays “will cost at least 50 percent more than the rest of the year.” It’s not just rising gas prices (the national average cost of a gallon of regular or unleaded gas is up about 75 cents from this time last year) that is causing sticker shock for holiday travelers.
Rising airfares
Room rates are higher, booking a rental car will cost more, and even those low airfares are on the rise, particularly on domestic flights. Fares from New York to Los Angeles, for example, are up 15 percent compared with this time last year, while flights from New York to Las Vegas have risen by 25 percent since October 2004, according to Harrell Associates, a research firm that tracks fares on the top 40 routes flown by each of seven major airlines.
And for the weeks surrounding Christmas, the pricing scenario is even worse: According to Harrell, the average round-
trip advance-purchase fare between New York and Los Angeles was $238 in the two months leading up to the Christmas holidays last year.
Deals already gone
“Tickets are as low as they are going to get,” said Terry Trippler, the airline industry analyst at Cheapseats.com. “If you see a good price, take it.” The rise is expected to continue as higher jet fuel prices are reflected in the cost of a ticket and as airlines in financial trouble trim capacity on domestic routes.
Part of the problem is that a lot of the best deals are already gone, taken by travelers who were making their Christmas plans around Labor Day. Both Expedia and Travelocity report strong early bookings for Thanksgiving and Christmas. Flights on some routes over the Thanksgiving holiday were already filled by early October.
Tom Parsons, the president of Best Fares, said lower prices would be especially hard to find this year because Christmas and New Year’s Day fall on Sundays. “The worst three days to travel will be Jan. 1, 2 and 3,” Parsons said. “All those people who took off the week after Christmas will want to come back New Year’s Day or the day after.”
Pricey lodging
Airfares aren’t the only variable travelers must contend with.
Hotels and resorts are pricier and busier than they have been in recent years. Bjorn Hanson, head of the hospitality and leisure practice at PricewaterhouseCoopers, estimates that occupancy rates over Thanksgiving will be the highest since 1999 and that room rates over the holiday week in December will be 5.2 percent higher nationwide than last year.
“Christmas will feel like the busiest time to travel this year because everyone wants to travel on the same days,” said Gregg Brockway, president of Classic Vacations, a San Jose, Calif.-based travel agency.
Rooms in resorts are 7 to 11 percent more expensive than a year ago, according to Hanson of PricewaterhouseCoopers. On Hawaii’s Big Island, prices for the least expensive rooms at Kona Village Resort are up more than 9 percent to $580 starting in December. The resort’s 125 individual bungalows are sold out for that week.
And finding a room in one of the better hotels in New York over the Christmas holidays will cost an average of 15 percent more than in 2004, Hanson said. During the first three weeks of December, rooms at the New York Palace start at $685, $90 more than last year.
But it doesn’t end there. “Guests will pay more for food and beverage and the use of fitness facilities,” Hanson said. “They should also be alert to what these days are called surcharges, which range from housekeeping fees to the use of resort amenities.”
Getting what you wish for extends to the car rental lot. Neil Abrams, president of Abrams Consulting Group, said car rental rates would jump 5 to 10 percent by the end of the year owing to increased fleet costs for 2006 models.
Even with the rising costs, the travel industry is having its best year since before 2001. “Last year was a massive year for holiday travel,” said Amy Ziff, editor at large of Travelocity.