As the holiday shopping season speeds to a finish, some retailers and economists will be watching the weather reports as closely as they track sales data.
“Weather is one of those factors – much like consumer confidence – that can shift the timing of purchases,” said Michael Niemira, chief economist at the International Council of Shopping Centers, an industry trade group.
A blast of cold weather throughout the nation last week contributed to tepid sales for retailers. The council’s weekly sales report showed an increase of just 0.9 percent in chain stores sales over the previous week. Additionally, store traffic was down.
That’s to be expected, said Bill Kirk, vice president of SDI/Weather Trends Inc., a Plymouth Meeting, Pa.-based weather-forecasting firm that advises the council and national retailers.
Stores use the forecasts, based on statistical models and generated up to a year in advance, to determine the items they should stock and promote.
Nationally, SDI is predicting the coldest and snowiest December in five years.
During the weeks leading up to the holidays, retailers prefer cold – but not snowy – weather. Relatively cold weather puts people in a spending mood and boosts sales of cold-weather items such as hats, gloves and sweaters, Kirk said. Snow and extreme cold, however, can keep people at home or send them online to do their shopping.
“Every snow event is a lost shopping day,” Kirk said.
To illustrate the connection between weather and sales, Kirk cited data showing that December 2000 was the sixth-coldest in 111 years. Retail sales for the same period were the worst in 20 years, he said.
Nearly half of households would cancel a planned shopping trip if it’s snowing, a recent survey by SDI and the shopping council showed. Thirty percent of women said they would do more of their shopping online or through catalogs in cold and stormy weather, according to the survey.
“Really cold spells keep people in their houses. That can be disastrous,” said Bill Weaving, a vice president a Planalytics, a Wayne, Pa.- based firm that also helps retailers plan for the weather.
At Aspen Grove, an outdoor shopping center in Littleton, last week’s snow and frigid temperatures kept shoppers home during the day, but business had picked up by Wednesday evening, general manager Jill Kobe said.
Although Aspen Grove quickly recovered and is reporting sales 5 percent ahead of last year, outdoor lifestyle centers and strip malls often bear the brunt of weather-related slowdowns, Kirk said.
Tish Glenn Taylor, general manager of Town Center at Aurora, said she typically doesn’t see a slowdown as a result of the weather. The indoor mall, which recently celebrated a grand reopening following the first phase of its $100 million renovation, has seen an increase in sales and traffic over last year, she said.
Colorado retailers can expect cold but not necessarily much snow, according to the latest 10-day forecast.
Staff writer Kristi Arellano can be reached at 303-820-1902 or karellano@denverpost.com.
