It’s been an unhappy New Year for those Colorado Republicans determined to take back control of the state legislature.
History would seem to favor a Republican bounceback, since the GOP controlled at least one and usually both chambers of the General Assembly for 42 years after their 1962 sweep when John Love defeated Democratic Gov. Steve McNichols and Republicans won control of both the House and Senate. But so far the breaks, particularly in the Senate, just aren’t going the Republicans’ way.
The latest gloomy omen for elephantophiles (OK, that word’s a stretch, but you try coming up with a fresh synonym for “Republicans”) came last week when a court ruled Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald, D-Jefferson County, could seek re-election to a full four-year term. Fitz-Gerald was elected to fill out the balance of Tony Grampsas’ term after he died in office. But the court ruled she was sworn in a few days after the midpoint of Grampas’ four-year term and thus was entitled to run again by the letter of Colorado’s term-limit law. Republicans had high hopes of winning back Fitz-Gerald’s seat if the popular incumbent couldn’t run again. The court ruling was doubly disappointing to the GOP because it followed last December’s announcement by popular Rep. Mark Larson, R-Cortez, that he wouldn’t challenge Sen. Jim Isgar, D-Hesperus, for the Senate District 6 seat in southwest Colorado.
Couple those developments with the fact that they have 11 holdover seats, and Democrats would seem to have good odds of at least holding their current 18-17 majority next fall, though Republicans will target Sen. Moe Keller, D-Jefferson County. For their part, Democrats think there are three vulnerable Republicans up this year: Ken Kester in southeast Colorado, Lew Entz in the San Luis Valley and Ed Jones in El Paso County. Democratic hopes against Kester dipped when former Pueblo County Commissioner John Klomp bowed out of that race this week, however, and the affable and moderate Entz pays close attention to his district.
The gloomy Senate picture has prompted many Republican activists to turn to the House, where they’d have to pick up three seats to erase the current 35-30 Democratic majority. Their best chances may be in races pitting recycled Republican senators against first- term Democrats. Republican Ken Chlouber, term-limited from the Senate in 2004, is challenging Gary Lindstrom in District 56, covering Eagle, Lake and Summit counties. Term-limited GOP Sen. Dave Owen will challenge Rep. Jim Reisberg in Weld County’s District 50.
Republicans will also run hard against Rep. Gwen Green, D-Golden, who barely edged Ramey Johnson in 2004. Johnson faces a primary against former Jefferson County Commissioner Pat Holloway for the GOP nod.
Popular Democratic Rep. Angie Paccione of Fort Collins is running for Congress against U.S. Rep. Marilyn Musgrave this year and that makes her current District 53 seat a battleground. Republicans also think they have good odds against first-term Reps. Debbie Benefield, D-Arvada, and Judy Solano, D-Brighton.
On the numbers, first-term Rep. Bernie Buescher, D-Grand Junction, is vulnerable. But the hard-working Buescher is Western Colorado’s only voice on the crucial Joint Budget Committee and should survive.
Counting Buescher, that’s seven Democratic seats at risk. In turn, Democrats think they can challenge Republican Rep. Bob McCloskey, R-Fort Collins. They also expect to be competitive in the races to replace term-limited Republicans Larson and Joe Stengel, R-Littleton. Stengel’s district leans Republican but Democrats are fielding an Iraqi war veteran, former Glendale Mayor Joe Rice, and are excited about this citizen-soldier’s prospects. Finally, if Lakewood Republican Rep. Matt Knoedler doesn’t run again, Democrats will run hard for his District 22 seat.
Today’s snapshot thus shows Republican chances poor in the Senate and only fair in the House. But it’s nine months before the voters sort all these races out Nov 7. That’s a lifetime in politics, and anything can happen in that time.
Bob Ewegen is deputy editorial page editor of The Denver Post. He has covered state and local government since 1963.
