One month until madness. Where do we stand?
It is a complicated but interesting answer, and it moves fast. Buckle up.
Connecticut is the nation’s best team. Coach Jim Calhoun’s Huskies have the top talent, and more of it than anyone else. No team is deeper. No team is better.
However, Duke is close. Guard J.J. Redick, for his spectacular play and the competition he puts the numbers up against, night in and night out, gets the nod – however slight – over Gonzaga’s Adam Morrison for player of the year. The Zags, by the way, are the best team in the West.
The 16-team Big East is the king of all of the nation’s conferences, and that will bear out on Selection Sunday when as many as nine teams could receive tournament nods. How good is the conference? Louisville, which reached the Final Four last season, is in danger of not qualifying for the 12-team Big East Tournament.
The Big Ten is just a step away. Michigan State is a Final Four contender; Illinois has unexpectedly played top-10 caliber basketball; and Ohio State, Iowa and Michigan have been solid. Indiana and Wisconsin have stumbled recently but don’t count either out just yet for a spot in the field of 65.
The SEC has new stars and new teams rising to the top. Tennessee, LSU and Florida have surprised during perennial power Kentucky’s struggles. Fresh talent, such as Tennessee’s Chris Lofton, LSU’s Tyrus Thomas and Florida’s Taurean Henderson, give the conference reason to look forward to a bright future.
The Big 12? Looking better. Colorado gave it an early surprise team, and Nebraska has lurked outside of the top four, but the power is shifting back where it usually lies. Texas is the best. Kansas, with rapidly improving young talent, is the scariest; and Oklahoma, with stalwarts Taj Gray, Kevin Bookout and Terrell Everett, will be a tough matchup in March.
The Pac-10 needs help. However, UCLA has been a hidden gem, one of the best little-documented stories in the nation. The Bruins are off to their best start since the mid-1990s and are on a collision course to win the Pac-10 for the first time since 1996-97. And no one can name three of their five starters.
Arizona has struggled. Its top-20 RPI is probably going to get Lute Olsen’s bunch into the tourney, but it’s hard to believe Arizona deserves it. California has played well, Stanford has been good in conference play, and Washington will ride solid nonconference play to the tourney even though it’s struggled in conference.
Of the mid-majors, the Missouri Valley Conference has been the best. Look for at least three of its teams in the NCAA Tournament. Northern Iowa is once again one of the most dangerous middies in the country.
“There is a lot of parity in college basketball right now,” Gonzaga coach Mark Few said. “Go back and check some of these. Duke went overtime at Florida State. They throw in a 50-footer against Virginia Tech. Those teams, they’re last place in the ACC. There’s a lot of parity out there.”
So where do we stand?
In a wild, yet intriguing spot.
Chris Dempsey can be reached at 303-820-5455 or cdempsey@denverpost.com.
NCAA overview
Denver Post college basketball writer Chris Dempsey looks at the national scene with March Madness a month away:
TEAMS ON THE RISE
Ohio State has been one of the nation’s more unexpected best teams this season, and after defeating Illinois on Sunday, the Buckeyes are a half-game out of first place in the Big Ten. An early January rough patch in which it lost two of three games has been replaced by wins in six of Ohio State’s past seven games, including three over ranked opponents.
Since losing back-to-back games to Kansas State and Missouri in mid-January, few teams are playing better basketball than the Kansas Jayhawks, who have won seven straight and are just one game out of first place in the Big 12. N.C. State has won four of its past five games and is in second place in the ACC and Seton Hall has quietly won six of seven, including a blowout victory at N.C. State, creeping into the top six in the Big East. The Hall has a game against West Virginia on Tuesday. Win that, and a tourney bid starts to look real good.
TEAMS FALLING FAST
Indiana fans blame it on the coach. The coach in question, Mike Davis, blames it on injuries and negativity surrounding the program, but either way the Hoosiers have been in a free-fall this month. Indiana is 1-3 in February and has lost five of six overall. But the Hoosiers are not alone.
Stanford’s burgeoning NCAA Tournament hopes took a hit last week with last-minute losses against California and Gonzaga. But with games against Arizona, Washington and UCLA on the horizon there’s still time for the Cardinal to beef up its tourney résumé.
Kentucky makes this list because of three straight losses, the most recent to Vanderbilt, which swept the season series from the Wildcats for the first time since 1972-73. It’s starting to become panic time, but Kentucky still can put something together. However, a brutal three-game end to the regular season looms with games at LSU, at Tennessee and home against Florida.
SLEEPERS
ESPN wondered over the weekend why no one was talking about George Washington, a top-10 team. We’ll second that, but take it a step further. The under-the-radar Colonials will be a tough out for any team in the NCAA Tournament, but they’re not the only ones.
Alabama has won four of its past five and has crept to within one game of the SEC West-leading LSU Tigers. California has ridden the broad shoulders of forward Leon Powe to a 9-3 Pac-10 record, just a half-game behind UCLA for first place. San Diego State has floated to the top of the Mountain West, and Nevada, with five straight wins, has straightened out a 3-3 start in the WAC and is 18-5 overall.
SURPRISES
Pittsburgh coach Jamie Dixon has made a huge case for coach of the year honors. Pittsburgh wasn’t expected to do much this season, but finds itself in the thick of the Big East race and is 19-3 record overall.
Tennessee may be the biggest surprise, with a new “40 Minutes of Hell” reminiscent style of play and a budding star in guard Chris Lofton. There are others ahead, but it’s starting to become a more viable question as the weeks roll by: Is Tennessee worthy of a No. 1 seed?
Illinois had a setback Sunday, but the fact it has played well without Deron Williams and Luther Head – both in the NBA – has been eyebrow-raising. LSU has meshed young talent with old and has come up with an unexpectedly solid season.
BUBBLE ZONE: TEAMS THAT NEED NCAA HELP
Kentucky. Enough said. But outside of the Wildcats, Colorado should have a high postseason stress level these days. The Buffs are badly in need of a signature win to beef up their tourney résumé, one that can be gained this week against Oklahoma on Wednesday.
Syracuse simply can’t afford to keep losing. The Orange has lost five of its past seven games, and though it gets Cincinnati and Louisville this week, three of its final four games are against West Virginia, Georgetown and Villanova.
HIGHEST-BID CONFERENCES (OVERALL)
It has been said the Big East could get 10 teams in the tourney, but look for that number to be eight or nine. The Big Ten will get somewhere from five to seven. The SEC’s final tournament number should be about five.
LOWEST-BID MAJOR CONFERENCES
The Big 12 remains an interesting case study. Texas and Oklahoma are virtual locks for the tourney, and after that there may be one or two more teams or none at all. In the Pac-10, UCLA, Washington and Cal look like keepers. Arizona’s RPI may get the Wildcats in and Stanford needs a strong finish to state its NCAA tourney case. The bottom line: As little as three; as many as five.
