This is how former NCAA Tournament Selection Committee member Craig Thompson sees it during this, the make-or-break week of the Division I basketball season.
“It’s shaping up to be a really difficult year (to select at-large teams),” Thompson said. “In the past, it’s been more difficult actually seeding teams than selecting teams. This year, I think it’s going to be very difficult to select teams.”
From 1995-2000, Thompson sweated the details, so he should know. Tournaments for the major conferences are played this week, and the competition for the NCAA Tournament’s 34 at-large slots – as well as premium seeding – is tighter than ever. Thus, the stakes are even higher.
“Usually it comes down to a 2-for-1 differential, eight teams vying for four slots, or something like that,” Thompson said. “This year, I think there are legitimately 18-20 teams that are in the hunt for nine or 10 slots. And there are going to be people that are going to say, ‘How can we not have been in the tournament? How could we have gotten left out?”‘
In the topsy-turvy world that is NCAA Division I basketball, first impressions mean next to nothing. What happens last is what leaves the lasting memory.
When committee members arrive in Indianapolis on Wednesday, they are instructed to bring a list of 17 teams they think definitely are in for at-large bids.
“I don’t know if you’re going to get there this year,” Thompson said. “You might. But I bet you this: There will be a lot more teams on the 17 list times 10 members than there has been in recent years.”
In the past two weeks several teams have played themselves into the conversation. Arkansas, Seton Hall, Indiana, Brigham Young, Florida State and Alabama-Birmingham are a few.
Then there are those threatening to play themselves out. Syracuse, which was beaten by 39 points at DePaul on Thursday and has lost eight of 12 games, tops that list.
Surprise conference tournament winners who soak up the at-large bids will pose the biggest threat to borderline teams such as the Orange.
Keep an eye on potential movement among the No. 1 seeds. Right now, Connecticut, Duke, Villanova and Memphis have the inside track, but they are a bit more tenuous now. If one of those teams stumbles and Texas makes a run to the Big 12 Tournament title, it might sneak in and grab one. Same thing goes for Ohio State in the Big Ten. Gonzaga probably only has an outside chance. Look for the Bulldogs to grab a No. 2 seed on Selection Sunday.
In the Southeastern Conference, Arkansas and Alabama need to play well to bolster their tournament résumés. A win or two wouldn’t hurt for Kentucky, either.
“Our league is very strong,” Arkansas coach Stan Heath said. “It’s better than it was in November and December. Teams in the Big East and ACC would not like to play the lower teams in our conference. I hear people say other conferences should get 10 and eight teams in. We should get at least six teams in the tournament.”
Staff writer Chris Dempsey can be reached at 303-820-5455 or cdempsey@denverpost.com.
Buffs in at No. 5
Colorado beat visiting Iowa State 84-82 Saturday night in the regular-season finale to secure the No. 5 seed in this week’s Big 12 Tournament in Dallas.
Tournament time
The NCAA Tournament field will be announced at 4 p.m. next Sunday. (KCNC-4). The women’s bracket will be announced at 5 p.m. March 13. (ESPN).
Tournament time
The NCAA Tournament bracket will be announced next Sunday at 4 p.m. (KCNC-4). The women’s bracket will be announced Monday, March 13, at 5 p.m. (ESPN).
Here are the likely No. 1 men’s seeds:
Connecticut
Duke
Villanova
Memphis
But, look out for Texas out of the Big 12, Ohio State out of the Big Ten and maybe even Gonzaga.
Other key dates: Play-in game, March 14; Final Four, April 1; championship, April 3
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