The victory of the fledgling Kadima party in Israel’s elections Tuesday demonstrates how deeply Israelis are committed to some kind of land-for-peace plan. But the relatively light turnout also signals skepticism that any true peace plan is possible without a reliable partner representing the Palestinians.
Kadima was formed out of whole cloth by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon only days before he was felled Jan. 4 by a devastating stroke. Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert took over the new party, leading Kadima to capture 28 of the 120 seats in Israel’s parliament, the largest single bloc.
The fact that Kadima won less than a majority was no surprise – no party has ever won an outright majority in Israel’s multi-party elections. Olmert could reach the 61 seats necessary to govern by courting the Labor Party’s 20 seats and the 13 seats held by the ultra-orthodox Shas party. Both parties support Kadima’s plan to partition occupied territories but would likely claim key ministries in return for their backing. Labor leader Amir Peretz reportedly covets the finance ministry, where he could push his plan to double Israel’s minimum wage to about $1,000 a month. Olmert can be expected to vigorously oppose that plan.
Overall, Israeli analysts believe Olmert could easily garner 70 votes in the Knesset in support of his land-for-peace plan. But Hamas’ surprise victory in the last Palestinian election over a disorganized Fatah party with a record of corruption means Israel no longer has a partner in the quest for peace. A new Hamas-led cabinet was sworn in Wednesday to lead the Palestinian Authority, just one day after Olmert’s victory.
Israel has said it will refuse to deal with Hamas unless it renounces violence, recognizes Israel’s right to exist and respects past accords. Hamas has rejected those demands and denounced Olmert’s peace plan. Olmert is thus expected to put the peace process on hold for at least a year to see whether Hamas’ actions match its vitriolic rhetoric.
At 63.2 percent, turnout was the lowest ever for a parliamentary election in Israel. However, while the statistics are not directly comparable, Israel’s turnout still bested the 55.3 percent of voting-age Americans who cast ballots in the 2004 presidential election.
But Israel’s problem isn’t voter apathy. Its voters simply understand that no government, however well-intentioned, can make peace with enemies who are fanatically committed to annihilation of the Jewish state.
