Orlando, Fla. – A shout away from the Happiest Celebration on Earth, two fans walked the concourse at Disney’s Wide World of Sports complex and rejoiced in baseball’s potential future.
One wore a shirt with “Barry Bonds*” on it. His buddy was more brazen, his shirt screaming: “People for the Ethical Treatment of Baseball,” accompanied by a voided picture of the controversial San Francisco Giants slugger.
The reaction to Bonds, through the voices of fans and actions of commissioner Bud Selig, illustrates baseball’s uncomfortable link to the steroids era and its desire to move forward. Bonds is stalking one of the sport’s most revered records, the home run milestones of Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron. Yet rather than honor the achievement, Selig will be investigating it.
Baseball began reinventing itself last season, when little things mattered again in the first season of tougher steroids testing. Home runs were down 8 percent. Runs sank 4.5 percent. The average velocity for pitchers, according to scouting reports filed, dropped from 92 mph to approximately 89 mph.
But as baseball carves out a new identity, the connection to its past must be addressed: What will be power’s role as the game moves forward?
“Let’s not kid ourselves,” Hall of Famer Reggie Jackson said. “You still have to have power to win.”
With fewer players theoretically possessing power – “Theoretically? Come on, there will be fewer,” Houston’s Morgan Ensberg said – those with it should become even more valuable. The reliever who blows 95 mph smoke will be coveted, no longer taken for granted on pitching staffs full of flame-throwers. The 30-home run, 100-RBI man once again will be a superstar.
“It seemed like 30 (home runs) didn’t even matter for years. So I think what’s happening is great for the game,” said Atlanta outfielder Jeff Francoeur, one of baseball’s best young players. “We are bringing the purity back. I know people love to see the ball hit 600 feet, but at the same time it’s always nice to see a 2-1 game. That’s real baseball.”
Home runs taking a hit
Last year’s numbers reflect the adjustment baseball is undergoing, a sport that more closely resembled its roots than Mark McGwire’s biceps. There were 434 home runs siphoned from the game compared with 2004. The 30 teams combined for 1,051 fewer runs.
And pitchers, after a decade of tasting leather, delivered a counterpunch, posting 189 complete games, a 21 percent spike.
Steroids testing with the strict punishment and better young arms were offered as the reasons behind the offensive decline.
“Natural is better,” Detroit closer Todd Jones said. “Now guys with power mean more since not everybody has it.”
The knee-jerk response gleaned from the data is that it’s time to resurrect the 1959 Go-Go White Sox, the only team, as Jackson put it, “to reach the World Series with no power.” But the 2005 White Sox are a better template. They reacted perfectly to baseball’s seismic shift, blending small ball and muscle while not becoming too reliant on either element.
For all the talk about Ozzie Guillen’s bunt-first, dirt-dog, lean-on-his-pitching-staff reputation, the White Sox ranked fifth in the big leagues with 200 home runs thanks in part to playing at a home run-friendly ballpark. That’s why re-signing Paul Konerko and acquiring Jim Thome, both capable of hitting 40 home runs, were as much a priority as adding Javier Vazquez as the fifth starter this offseason.
“I think you still have to have at least two guys in the lineup who in one swing can turn a game around,” said Joe Garagiola Jr., an assistant in the commissioner’s office and former Arizona Diamondbacks general manager. “It impacts how the other team looks at your lineup. When you have guys like that, it casts a long shadow over the game.”
That’s because the game is undergoing a change that amounts to injectable collagen in the lips, not a face-lift.
Cozy ballparks share in blame
Steroids provide the easiest explanation for the power revolution, but they did not act alone. Many of the factors behind the offensive lunacy still exist, namely cozy ballparks, harder baseballs, better weight training and a compact, now slowly correcting strike zone that devoured pitchers who didn’t challenge hitters.
“One of the things that baseball did, and nobody wants to focus on, is baseball built small ballparks,” former commissioner Fay Vincent said. “They made it easy to hit home runs. Look at Houston; their left field is a joke. Baseball played to the home run as if it was the only great event in the game.”
In recent years, ballparks in Detroit, Seattle, San Diego and Washington were introduced, as Arizona general manager Josh Byrnes noted, which “helped deflate home runs.” But bandboxes still exist from Philadelphia to Chicago to Arlington that can’t be dismissed when assembling a lineup.
“Sure the game is going to be a little different, but there are always going to be guys knocking them out of the park,” said Atlanta’s Andruw Jones, who led baseball last year with 51 home runs. “You need that player like a (Albert) Pujols, David Ortiz or Derrek Lee. Maybe even more now.”
Added Rockies reliever Mike DeJean: “Well, I didn’t finish college, but I know the baseball is a lot different than 15, 20 years ago. The bats are also made a lot better. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out that hitters still have a lot of advantages.”
While players are expected to get smaller over the next few years, they aren’t going to become Lilliputians. The weight room now is part of the game’s fabric. The subtle result: Middle-of-the-road power hitters should wane, while the middle reliever throwing 92 mph over three consecutive days becomes extinct.
“You are still going to have guys who hit 50 home runs. The difference is that guy who was hitting 25 is hitting 10 again,” Atlanta pitcher John Smoltz said. “I know people say just as many pitchers were using steroids, but I can’t see how they benefited from them as much as hitters.”
The fallout will be obvious, explained former big-leaguer Walt Weiss.
“You won’t have teams looking for power from every position, from every pitcher, anymore. That’s not realistic,” he said. “You will see it from the corner positions, and they will be surrounded by guys who can play the game.”
Therein lies the secret. Teams that win are multidimensional, making them more equipped to adjust in a sport where change is the one constant.
No better time for balance
As order is restored to statistics, few teams could benefit more than the Rockies, a franchise in position to amplify power as it diminishes across the major leagues. Constructing a balanced roster is critical, given the only moderate success achieved through extreme philosophical positions.
The Blake Street Bombers went to the playoffs once, in 1995, but never won more than 83 games. The Blake Street Runners? They won 82 games in 2000, even while scoring a franchise-best 968 runs. The Aces Experiment – see Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle – failed miserably.
As the Rockies transition from Todd and the Toddlers to what they hope is a contender, better pitching and defense won’t matter if they can’t score at least 100 more runs.
That’s the lesson of the future: Baseball hasn’t lost its power, it merely is operating on less wattage.
“The more guys who you find out were on steroids, it’s sad. The numbers definitely became meaningless in the 1990s,” Jackson said. “But still, even after they get that stuff out of the game, you have that guy in your lineup who can hit 30 and drive in runs. Without it, you aren’t going to win.”
Power outage, version 2005
1. Jim Thome, DH, White Sox – Hit seven home runs, then hit trade market.
2. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Mariners – 19 home runs were 29 fewer than he hit in 2004.
3. Todd Helton, 1B, Rockies – 20 home runs a career low.
4. Carlos Beltran, OF, Mets – Under Gotham’s glare, he hit 16 homers after signing a $119 million contract.
5. J.D. Drew, OF, Dodgers – Fifteen homers only 15 shy of what Arizona sub Tony Clark delivered.
Wright way to swing the bat
Denver Post national baseball writer Troy E. Renck breaks down the game’s power sources for 2006:
1. David Wright, 3B, Mets – The next Scott Rolen. How does 35 HRs, 110 RBIs at age 23 sound?
2. Jhonny Peralta, SS, Indians – Could replace Miguel Tejada as AL’s best offensive shortstop.
3. Chad Tracy, 3B, Diamondbacks – Paired with Conor Jackson, Arizona has bookends who can go deep 65 times a year.
4. Ryan Howard, 1B, Phillies – Will be a surprise if reigning rookie of the year doesn’t club 40 home runs if he reaches 550 at-bats.
5. Matt Holliday, LF, Rockies – Strong enough to hit ball out to all fields. Should reach 30 home runs this season.
Troy E. Renck can be reached at 303-820-5447 or trenck@denverpost.com.
