A couple of things we know: As we’ve discussed before, the Dallas Stars have been the league’s shootout aces in the inaugural season of using penalty shots after five minutes of overtime to determine which team gets credit for a “win” and a second point. (And that’s a more appropriate way of putting it, actually, than saying it breaks a tie.)
Going into the weekend, the Stars were 11-0 in shootouts. OK, it’s not an absolute shock Dallas has been the best in the NHL. But some of the other teams with admirable shootout records? How about the New York Islanders (8-3), Columbus (8-2) and the Los Angeles Kings (5-1)?
On the flip side were the surprisingly poor records of teams such as the Eastern Conference’s best, Ottawa (2-6), and in the Western Conference Colorado (3-6), Anaheim (2-7), San Jose (1-7) and Calgary (2-5). Even Detroit is only 2-3.
And you thought the Avs were having problems: In their past five shootouts, the Senators have gotten the puck in the net – let’s add this up – exactly zero times.
So what’s it mean: Actually, at least in the West, not much.
It’s shaky to assume that all games that went to shootouts would have ended in overtime ties without the new system. It’s at least theoretically possible that some teams could play more conservatively in overtime if they feel their chances for the extra point are better in a shootout than in an open-throttled overtime. But we’ll assume that all games that went to a shootout would have ended in ties. With that stipulation, a look at the standings and the shootout records shows that at least before Friday’s games, the race for playoff spots hasn’t been much affected by the shootouts.
The details: Without shootouts, Anaheim, which went into Friday’s games tied with Vancouver and Edmonton at 86 points and in the conference’s eighth spot on tiebreakers, would have been alone in sixth.
Edmonton (7-8 in shootouts) would have been in the No. 9 spot and out of the playoff bracket if the season ended now, instead of seventh. And San Jose, a horrible 1-7 in shootouts, would have been in the final playoff spot at No. 8, instead of outside the playoff field.
So the only Western Conference team that is killing itself with shootout problems is San Jose. (Anaheim will be saying the same thing, but only if it misses the playoffs.)
And in the East, while there would have been some shuffling among teams outside the playoff field with two weeks to go, the shootouts’ impact on the playoff race has been minimal. They’ve helped New Jersey considerably, but nobody with legitimate playoff hopes has been killed by shootout problems.
Northwest: There’s another way to look at it, of course, and that’s how the race would have been affected if some teams had been doing better in shootouts. So it’s fair to say that the shootouts have represented missed opportunities to take control of the division race for Calgary and Colorado. If either the Flames or the Avs (but not both) had done better, they would have had some breathing room going into the Friday night game at Calgary.
