Republican gubernatorial candidate Bob Beauprez decisively captured his party’s backing Saturday but he still has a tough road ahead, political analysts say.
First, he has to change political gears, edging himself toward the center – but not quite reaching it – in order to appeal to the more moderate Republicans who vote in the Aug. 8 primary.
“It’s a careful calculation. How much can he go towards the middle without losing the primary but not alienating more mainstream voters?” said Bob Loevy, political science professor at Colorado College.
Beauprez also has to continue battling GOP rival Marc Holtzman, who did not automatically make the primary ballot but says he has enough signatures to secure a spot through petitions.
If the last few months are any indication of the inter-party politics that lie ahead, the contest will be expensive and ugly.
As a result, even if he wins the primary, Beauprez could be left financially drained and publicly battered, giving Bill Ritter, the Democrat’s unopposed gubernatorial nominee, a huge edge.
“Beauprez needs to worry. Holtzman can do a lot of damage,” said Jennifer Duffy, managing editor and political analyst of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report in Washington.
John Marshall, campaign manager for Beauprez, said the two-term congressman will be talking more about business, infrastructure, education and water over the next few months. That’s quite a departure from issues such as illegal immigration, gay marriage and the right to bear arms that were prominent in Beauprez’s speech at the state assembly Saturday.
Different voters have different concerns, Marshall said. “We talk about things that are relevant to voters and are part of their core values,” he said.
As to the campaign’s position toward Holtzman, that “remains to be seen.”
With 28 percent of the delegates’ support, Holtzman was two points shy of automatically making the primary. But Holtzman said Saturday that he had the required 10,500 signatures – 1,500 from each congressional district – to make the ballot. The petition must be filed with the secretary of state’s office by the end of business Thursday.
“We are moving forward and taking it to the voters in August,” Holtzman spokesman Jesse Mallory said Sunday.
It is not unusual for candidates to petition onto the ballot. For instance, Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo of Littleton and Democratic U.S. Rep. Mark Udall both did so in 1998, and former GOP gubernatorial candidate Bruce Benson petitioned on in 1994. None of the three sought votes at the state assembly first.
Both Democrats and Republicans within the state and nationwide try to avoid primaries because the negative publicity of close races often divides the party and hurts the eventual nominee in the general election. Primaries also often eat up huge sums of money that a candidate needs for the general election.
Some experts have suggested Beauprez might try to ignore his rival as much as possible. But Loevy said: “Even if Beauprez wants to ignore Holtzman, the system is just not set up that way when someone has enough money to buy ads and go on television.”
The big winner in this could be Ritter. Through the summer, his campaign plans to raise money and travel the state talking to “mainstream Coloradans,” while Holtzman and Beauprez “squabble with each other,” said his spokesman, Evan Dreyer.
Staff writer Karen Crummy can be reached at 303-820-1594 or
kcrummy@denverpost.com.
