What once seemed a bountiful snow supply is vanishing quickly.
Thanks to another warm, dry spring, mountain snow depths have plunged below average in every region of Colorado. At some measuring stations near treeline, the snow already has melted. Many others may be snowless by Memorial Day weekend.
The early loss of snow bodes trouble for farmers reliant on river water and for firefighters warily watching dry forests.
The good news for water users: Colorado reservoir levels remain close to normal, partly because conservation programs have lowered municipal consumption dramatically.
“The snowpack that looked healthy six weeks ago is melting very fast,” said Klaus Wolter, a University of Colorado climatologist. “We might end up with one of the earliest melt-offs ever.”
What particularly troubles him is a prolonged weather shift: April and May should be among the wettest months in Colorado, and the state has not seen a cool, wet spring since 1995.
In long-term temperature records, “the one screaming message I’ve been finding is we’ve had this spring warming trend,” Wolter said.
In wet years, “mud season lasted into July,” he said. “This year, we have had a few mud hours. That’s it.”
Just last month, snow depths ranged above average in four of eight Colorado river basins surveyed by the federal Natural Resources Conservation Service.
But April was dry and windy, and some of the snow simply blew into the clouds instead of melting. And the past week of May has been so hot and dry that western Colorado already faces a “red-flag warning” for dry thunderstorms and forest fires.
“We are drying out very fast,” said Larry Helmerick, spokesman for the Rocky Mountain Area Coordination Center, which posted the warning.
He said the center now rates the entire Front Range “at above average potential” for large wildfires.
The driest ground lies in southern Colorado, which benefited least from last winter’s snow.
On April 1, the snowpack in the mountains feeding the San Miguel, Dolores, Animas and San Juan rivers in southwest Colorado was 68 percent of normal, and the Upper Rio Grande basin 64 percent.
By Friday, the snowpack in the southwest basin had dropped to 19 percent of normal for the date and the Rio Grande to 25 percent.
Already, dry weather is imperiling alfalfa crops in southern Colorado and winter wheat on the Eastern Plains.
River basins that held more snow than usual also are drying out quickly.
Since April 1, snowpack depths have dropped from 114 percent to 57 percent of normal in the Yampa-White basin, from 110 percent to 57 percent in the Colorado basin, from 107 percent to 68 percent in the North Platte basin and from 103 percent to 65 percent in the South Platte basin.
Wolter expects the remaining snow will disappear two to four weeks early throughout Colorado, with most basins melting out by the first week of June.
Happily, most Colorado reservoirs are reporting near or above-average storage, “not because of Mother Nature but from people conserving water,” he said. “It’s one of the worst years on record, in terms of the melt-out.”
Staff writer David Olinger can be reached at 303-820-1498 or at dolinger@denverpost.com.
