We can only hope that North Korea has come to its senses and canceled its plans to test fire a long-range ballistic missile. While we’re at it, we might as well hope they don’t actually have a missile with such capabilities – capable, that is, of hitting the United States.
U.S. officials have rightly warned that there would be undisclosed consequences if the missile were launched.
A long-range missile test is in no one’s interest, least of all North Korea. Since the North has never bothered to announce its tests ahead of time, no one can be sure this worrisome episode doesn’t signify hostile intent. The missile is said to have sufficient range to reach the West Coast of the United States. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned that a test firing would be “a provocative act.” The chief concern is that such a missile might one day contain a nuclear warhead.
U.S. and Japanese satellites have monitored what they believe is a fully fueled new missile that could conceivably reach the United States. Perhaps it’s for a flight test or an effort to put a satellite in space. Maybe North Korea is simply posturing to gain attention or force the U.S. into direct talks, which Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton has ruled out. Six-party nuclear talks with North Korea have been stalled for months.
The missile preparation came as the United States conducted a major set of exercises off the Pacific island of Guam. The Associated Press reported the maneuvers involve 30 ships, including three aircraft carriers, 22,000 troops and 280 aircraft. On Wednesday, a U.S. warship reportedly prepared to shoot down a mock warhead of a medium-range missile over the Pacific as part of a series of tests, which a Missile Defense Agency official said had been planned for months. Some speculated that the U.S. activity, however, was aimed at dissuading North Korea or possibly trying to shoot down the missile.
Such an effort would carry huge risks. Robert Einhorn at the Center for Strategic and International Studies said a U.S. shootdown of a North Korean test missile or a space launch would draw “very strong international reaction” against the United States. He saw only a small chance that the U.S. would attempt such an intercept.
For North Korea to test fire a long-range missile will only bring more suffering if the country is further isolated and economic sanctions are imposed. South Korea has threatened to withdraw food aid to its impoverished neighbor. Japan, too, has threatened a tough response.
A test would be North Korea’s first significant missile launch since a 1998 test over Japanese territory that shocked Japan into restarting its military defense program.
It’s not too late for diplomacy to ease the current tensions. But North Korea must stand down and allow the six-nation talks to go forward.
