Mexico City – Leftist candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has surged to a five-point lead over conservative rival Felipe Calderon 10 days before Mexico’s presidential election, according to a poll published Thursday.
Two other polls published Thursday, however, showed him either tied with or having only a slight advantage over Calderon. Surveys published earlier in the week showed the candidates running about even, their figures within the statistical margin of error, in the run-up to the July 2 vote.
The poll published Thursday by the daily newspaper Milenio found that Lopez Obrador of the Democratic Revolution Party was backed by 35.4 percent of those polled, compared to 30.5 percent for Calderon of the governing National Action Party.
Roberto Madrazo had the support of 29.6 percent.
The poll was based on interviews with 2,000 registered voters June 16-20 and had a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.
The survey was conducted by Maria de las Heras, one of the few pollsters to predict a win by President Vicente Fox in 2000. De las Heras noted that the latest numbers were similar to those that emerged when the candidates formally launched their campaigns in January.
A second poll released Thursday by the University of Guadalajara gave Lopez Obrador 35.8 percent of the vote compared to 33.5 for Calderon. The poll was conducted June 17-18 with 2,000 registered voters. The margin of error is 2.2 percentage points.
A third poll, from the Grupo de Economistas and Asociados, or GEA, showed Calderon with 33 percent of the vote and Lopez Obrador 31 percent. The poll was conducted June 16 to 18 with 1,600 registered voters, and has a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.
After this week, polling firms and newspapers are legally barred from releasing poll results.
