U.S. workers filing first-time applications for state jobless benefits probably increased last week because of temporary shutdowns at some auto factories, economists said before a government report today.
Initial jobless claims probably rose by 7,000 to 320,000 in the week that ended Saturday, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 39 economists. Claims this year have averaged 309,000, compared with 332,000 in the same period last year.
Jobless-claims figures are distorted in the period when automakers close plants to install machinery for the coming model year. Claims may fall again in coming weeks, reflecting the reluctance of companies to fire workers even as the economy slows.
“Businesses, rather than cut back on employees, are reducing the rate at which they hire,” said Michael Gregory, senior economist at BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. in Toronto. “At some point, if the labor market weakens further, you may start to see the claims move up.”
Economists’ forecasts for claims ranged from 306,000 to 350,000. The Labor Department will release the figures at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
Jobless claims have yet to reflect the cooling economy. Growth probably slowed to a 2.8 percent annual pace last quarter from 5.6 percent in the first three months of the year, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists taken June 30 through Monday.
Average weekly claims of between 300,000 and 320,000 generally have been associated with monthly payroll growth of between 180,000 and 200,000, Gregory said. Claims usually rise as payrolls fall.
That correlation hasn’t held in the first half of this year, when weekly claims averaged 309,000 while payroll growth averaged just 142,000 a month. In the same period of last year, claims averaged 332,000 a week, and payrolls expanded by 164,000 a month.
Unemployment in June held at 4.6 percent, the lowest in five years and a level many economists consider full employment. Employers added 121,000 jobs, fewer than economists expected.
