The Bush administration manifesto has been to promote democracy in the world’s darkest corners. It soon may get its chance in Cuba.
Just three weeks ago, the administration released a 95-page report detailing its plan to prop up a democracy in Cuba when communist dictator Fidel Castro dies or fades from power. Castro this week ceded power, albeit temporarily, to his brother Raul, as he recovers from serious abdominal surgery.
The announcement led to joyous shouts from Cuban exiles dancing in the streets of Little Havana in Miami. Castro turns 80 on Aug. 13, so whatever the pace of his recovery, friends and foes alike can imagine that his reign since 1959 may be nearing an end.
The United States has been trying to hasten Castro’s exit for years, with everything from assassination attempts to a long-term economic boycott.
Now, the Bush administration’s Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba, co-chaired by Condoleezza Rice, has detailed what might be done to help bring democracy to Cuba when Castro dies.
It calls for $80 million in aid to help non-governmental groups in Cuba who want to end communism, with a pledge to help a transition government with humanitarian aid and organizing free elections.
One obstacle to overcome, the report notes, is the Cuban government’s restrictions on access to a free media and the Internet. “We are increasing our determination to break the regime’s information blockade,” Rice said at the time.
The idea is to create an environment where democracy and reforms could flourish. But, according to U.S. law, assistance cannot flow to Cuba if the transitional government includes Raul Castro.
The report also recommends at least $20 million a year for democracy programs “until the dictatorship ceases to exist.”
Many Americans expect Cuban communism to collapse quickly upon Castro’s departure, but it might not happen overnight. In fact, experts believe Cuba will move away from communism more gradually. Raul Castro was officially named his brother’s successor years ago, but at 75, it seems obvious that he would be a transitional figure at most. A 2005 congressional report suggests he could follow a Chinese model with “increases in economic freedom … with continued political authoritarianism.”
It’s fair to say that’s not what the dancing in the streets of Miami is all about.
Some type of democracy in Cuba would be the ideal for its people and the United States, but the shift from a charismatic leader who has ruled for 47 years will surely have some twists and turns.
