Raul Castro has always been at the side of his brother Fidel, wielding power and making policy as the unquestioned second- in-command of Cuba’s communist government.
However, with Cuba’s longtime “Maximum Leader” incapacitated by illness, analysts say Raul Castro will probably struggle to make his low-key personality fit a nation accustomed to Fidel’s blustery, everywhere-at- once style of rule.
“The problem is that Fidel is irreplaceable to their system as he’s built it,” said Florida International University professor Damian Fernandez, a Cuba scholar. “Fidel kept all tensions in check by the force of his personality. You never know how society will react now that the Maximum Leader is gone.”
Raul Castro, 75, does not lack for leadership abilities. The longtime head of Cuba’s military, he has exercised power over competing interests and managed a complex, far-flung empire of his own, but always under the umbrella of his brother’s unquestioned ultimate control.
“There are no great expectations for Raul,” said Mark Falcoff, an American Enterprise Institute scholar and the author of “Cuba, the Morning After.”
“Raul isn’t really liked within Cuba like Fidel was,” Falcoff said. “His style is much different, and we can assume the leadership will be collective now.”
Among those mentioned as likely to work closely with Raul Castro are Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque; Ricardo Alarcon, president of Cuba’s National Assembly; and Carlos Lage, the vice president who manages Cuba’s economy.
Although Raul Castro has been a political hard-liner from his early days, some believe he may lead Cuba toward economic liberalization.
“Raul is more pragmatic than Fidel” on economic matters, Fernandez said.
