Washington – In what may be the Pentagon’s most pessimistic assessment of the war in Iraq to date, two top generals told a Senate panel Thursday that the country could descend into civil war if the wave of sectarian violence isn’t checked soon by Iraqi and U.S. forces.
The generals and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld warned of the toll that violence between Shiite and Sunni Muslim militia groups is taking on efforts to form a government, restore order and begin the withdrawal of U.S. troops.
“I believe that the sectarian violence is probably as bad as I’ve seen it, in Baghdad in particular,” Army Gen. John Abizaid, the commander of U.S. forces in Iraq and chief of U.S. Central Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee. “And that, if not stopped, it is possible that Iraq could move toward civil war.”
Abizaid’s assessment came in response to a question from Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., who noted that the outgoing British ambassador to Iraq, William Patey, recently told his government, in a memo that was leaked, that Iraq was nearing civil war and could split along ethnic lines.
Marine Gen. Peter Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said, “We do have the possibility of (sectarian violence) devolving into civil war.”
Rumsfeld, noting a recent addition of about 3,000 U.S. troops in Baghdad, said: “The goal is not to have U.S. forces do the heavy lifting in Baghdad. The role of the U.S. force is to help them (the Iraqis), to provide logistics, to assist them as needed and to create a presence that will allow the Iraqi security forces to succeed.”
Thursday’s stark assessment stood in contrast to earlier testimony from military leaders who, while acknowledging the dangerous environment in Iraq, have generally emphasized positive developments, such as national elections and Iraqi police successes.
Rumsfeld and the generals spoke as lawmakers prepared to leave for a recess to campaign for the November elections.
With many voters becoming more restless over Iraq, the conflict has become a key campaign issue and given Democrats hopes of taking over control of Congress from the Republicans.
In response to the generals’ dire assessments, White House spokesman Tony Snow said, “The important thing is Gen. Abizaid was saying again that it is very important that we go in and secure Baghdad because that is where people are trying to create broader sectarian strife.”
But Rumsfeld and the generals repeatedly emphasized that securing stability was now the responsibility of Iraq’s government and its U.S.-trained army, police and security forces.
“We need the Iraqi people to seize this moment,” Pace said. “We’ve provided security for them, their armed forces are providing security for them, and their armed forces are dying for them. They need to decide that this is their moment.”
A primary target of those security forces are the Shiite and Sunni militias that have come to flourish in the security vacuum, particularly in and near Baghdad.
Some militias have been accused of dispatching death squads throughout the capital to target innocent civilians.
Abizaid said abolishing those militias is central to bringing order to Iraq.
“Militias are the curse of the region,” he said, adding that such groups can push “the region into very unpredictable directions, as you see Hezbollah moving with regard to inside of Lebanon.”
Despite the obvious difficulties of disarming and disbanding the Shiite and Sunni militias, Abizaid said that “the prospects of the militias, over time, disbanding are good.”
