Some predictions are just too easy. Over the next three months, state campaign spending records will be broken. Those shadowy 527 groups will have too much influence. There will be too many ads attacking the other side and not enough accentuating the positive. Voters will face a daunting variety of conflicting ballot issues. They may be confused. They certainly will grow even wearier of politics.
That takes care of the obvious.
What about the not-so-obvious, the unpredictable factors in the upcoming election? These questions, for example:
Will Bob Beauprez’s early embrace of the anti-tax, anti-Referendum C forces in his party hurt him or help him in the general election?
What are Bill Ritter’s chances of becoming the first Democrat since Roy Romer to win election to an open governor’s seat?
Will the Republicans, with their edge in voter registration, win back control of the General Assembly?
Will the Colorado congressional delegation tilt in the Democrats’ favor?
What will happen if incompatible ballot issues on marriage pass?
Does Ned Lamont’s victory over Sen. Joe Lieberman in Connecticut have implications for Colorado political strategists?
So far, the answers appear to be: hurt him; better-than-average; maybe the House; don’t be surprised; one shudders to think; and yes.
The governor’s race. Although Jon Caldara decided not to turn in petitions for an initiative to blunt the effects of last year’s Referendum C, the Ritter campaign is not going to let that drop as a campaign issue.
“He supported an issue that’s clearly out of synch with the majority of Coloradans,” said Ritter spokesman Evan Dreyer of Beauprez’s opposition to Referendum C.
Beauprez faced a fierce early challenge from Mark Holtzman, who was attacking from the right and who was loudly opposed to Referendum C. Holtzman got knocked off the ballot, and the anti-Referendum C initiative won’t get on, but Beauprez’s early position still haunts him.
It already has cost Beauprez the support of a number of traditional Republicans, including chambers of commerce and other business-oriented groups.
“We are Republicans who are fiscally conservative, but we also understand there’s a legitimate need and purpose for government in our society, and those need to be funded,” said former state legislator Bill Kaufman. “But you have this group that just wants to cut taxes at any cost.”
Kaufman was among a group of Larimer County Republicans who endorsed Ritter earlier this summer. “My understanding is there’s more on the way,” Kaufman said. Indeed there are, said Dreyer.
John Marshall, spokesman for the Beauprez camp, says he’s got Democrats, too, but “It’ll be a little bit before we roll ’em out.”
Other state offices. There were no party primaries for secretary of state, treasurer or attorney general, so these races have been well under the radar. But that won’t last; every one of them is contested in November.
The legislature. With a couple of exceptions, the more conservative Republicans won primary election contests last Tuesday. Democrats hope some of them are too far right to win a general election.
Maybe. It has happened before. But many of those primary wins are in districts where Republican registration is 20 to 30 percentage points ahead of the Democrats.
John Straayer, a Colorado State University political scientist who’s been following the legislature for years, thinks the Democrats have a good chance to keep their majority in the Senate, currently at 18-17. But he is “just not sure” about the House. Only three seats need to shift to give the Republicans control.
Congress. Beauprez probably would have won re-election in the 7th District; incumbents tend to do that. But he’s running for governor, and the Democrats’ numbers are growing. As of July, there were 7,700 more of them in the district than Republicans.
Despite a sometimes-nasty primary campaign, the Democrats aren’t divided on the issues. This is a race the national party really wants to win; spending could be a record for a Colorado congressional campaign.
The 7th could shift; the 3rd has a Republican plurality, but a Democratic incumbent. The others are too “safe” to change. On the morning of Nov. 8, what was a 4-3 Republican edge in the congressional delegation could be 4-3 Democrats.
Ballot issues. There were 13 Colorado ballot issues in 1988 and again in 1992. It’s possible some of the petitions turned in last week will have insufficient signatures, but it’s likely Colorado voters will face more ballot issues – up to 15 – than at any time since 32 issues were on the 1912 ballot.
Ballot issues can affect candidates. There was all that speculation that having an anti-Referendum C issue on the ballot would be an embarrassment for Beauprez. Some Republicans desperately wanted an immigration issue on the ballot to bring out more of their conservative base.
A minimum-wage proposal may attract the left. Proposals for and against gay marriage and domestic partnerships cancel each other out as base-boosters. If they all pass, the courts will have to sort it out. There’s precedent: In 1974, when conflicting annexation issues passed, the one receiving more votes trumped the other on provisions where the two were in disagreement.
The war in Iraq. The Democrats’ anti-war left spoke with sufficient voice in Connecticut to oust three-term Sen. Joe Lieberman. Colorado Democrats are not as liberal as their Eastern counterparts, and while it’s a key issue in a congressional race, it really has no role in state-level races – except, perhaps, as a way to capitalize on a general “time for a change” sentiment.
“The Democrats will do OK,” says Straayer, “but I say that somewhat tentatively.”
Fred Brown is a retired Capitol Bureau chief for The Post.
Colorado election 2006
Governor: Democrat Bill Ritter has a united party and some business support, while Republican Bob Beauprez hopes he’s put intra-party squabbling and questions about Referendum C behind him. It’s the first race in eight years without an incumbent.
Congress: While five seats look reasonably safe for incumbents, and the GOP is favored to retain the 5th District, the outcome of the 7th District race between Democrat Ed
Perlmutter and Republican Rick O’Donnell could determine which party has the majority of the state’s congressional delegation.
Legislature: Democrats now control both houses, but their majorities are small, and the GOP is gunning to regain control in at least one chamber.
Ballot measures: Voters statewide may have to sort through as many as 15. There are hot-button issues – gay marriage, the minimum wage, school spending, petition rights, judicial term limits and marijuana legalization – and some conflicting measures, so citizens will have to do their homework.
