Buckle up for a barrage of campaign ads over the next four weeks.
Though August has often provided a lull before the Labor Day campaign kickoff, a little-known campaign-finance rule may change that this year, considering the proliferation of so-called 527 groups.
Corporate contributions to 527s – those private groups that use a loophole in campaign finance laws to raise and spend soft money – can’t be spent on “electioneering” 60 days prior to the election. (The money can be spent on more benign items, such as office space and polling, but not on specific candidate advertisements.)
Much of the money that’s been dumped into GOP 527s is corporate, and a few of the Democratic 527s have received union money, which is considered corporate.
“We’ll have an aggressive plan during this 30-day period,” said Alan Philp, executive director of The Trailhead Group, the GOP’s big 527 created by Gov. Bill Owens, Bruce Benson and Pete Coors.
There’s been some chatter in political circles that 527s may have found a loophole in the “corporate” provision by funneling corporate money through umbrella organizations, such as the Republican Governor’s Association, which then dump it into 527s. However, the RGA, which gave Trailhead a cool half-million to help Congressman Bob Beauprez‘s gubernatorial effort had to label how much of the money was considered corporate, Philp said.
Going negative inevitable?
Will Bob Beauprez be forced to “go negative” on Bill Ritter in their gubernatorial race because of his high “unfavorable” ratings?
Ritter’s camp is hunkering down. “The only thing they can do is attack Bill and distort his record,” Ritter campaign manager Greg Kolomitz said in a release last week. Several political strategists agree with him.
According to a recent Mason-Dixon poll conducted for The Post, 85 percent of Coloradans recognize Beauprez’s name. Unfortunately for Beauprez, 22 percent recognize it “unfavorably,” compared to only 31 percent who recognize it favorably.
In politics, it’s difficult to convert an unfavorable to a favorable, said pollster Floyd Ciruli, “particularly when it was done in high-profile fashion.” He was referring to Beauprez’s primary battle with Marc Holtzman, who tagged him as “Both Ways Bob.” “When you’re struck with an early low favorability or a high unfavorability, your choices are limited,” he said. “By and large, you have to raise the other guy’s negatives.”
Only 8 percent of Coloradans view Ritter unfavorably, according to the poll. Of course, a big chunk, 25 percent of the electorate, has never heard of him. That can be a blessing or a curse. While it allows him to tell his personal story to voters, there’s room for Beauprez to drive up his low unfavorables. (Ritter’s ratio of favorable to unfavorable is nearly 4 to 1, while Beauprez’s is not even 2 to 1.)
Beauprez’s campaign manager, John Marshall, says the Beauprez camp will lay out the differences between the candidates. “Some people think that pointing out differences that are germane to the campaign is negative, [but] I don’t,” he said. “Are we going to engage in gratuitous attacks that aren’t germane? No, we’re not. But if he’s going to run on his record as [district attorney], we’re going to absolutely make an issue of his record as a DA.”
GOP strategist Katy Atkinson says no one has to go negative. “What you’ll see from Beauprez will be pretty positive and what you’ll see from the 527s will be the really negative,” she said. “I won’t be surprised if that happens from both campaigns.”
Adios, amigos
Anti-illegal immigration crusader Tom Tancredo‘s spokesman, Will Adams, is leaving the congressman’s office for law school. He notified some members of the media with a note that began: “Adios, amigos!” He’ll be replaced by his predecessor, Carlos Espinosa.
Find more online
Go to the Haley’s Comment blog at denverpostbloghouse.com/haley to find more political news, including an updated list of this fall’s top 10 statehouse races; the impact vote centers will have on campaigning; and state Rep. “Buffie” McFadyen‘s letter to Congress.
Dan Haley (dhaley@denverpost.com) is a member of the Denver Post editorial board.
