Last Tuesday, Mexico’s Federal Election Tribunal announced it found no fraud in its review of Mexico’s July 2 presidential elections. Although the decision won’t be official until Sept. 6, this effectively means that Felipe Calderón, the candidate from the conservative National Action Party (PAN), will become Mexico’s next president.
This has been the closest election in Mexico’s history; Calderón’s margin of victory was 243,000 votes out of 41 million. His opponent, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (or “Amlo,” as many people refer to him), has bitterly protested the result and demanded a complete recount of all the votes cast, using the slogan, “Voto por voto, casilla por casilla” (“vote by vote, polling place by polling place). He has set up a protest tent city in the Zócalo, Mexico City’s huge central plaza, paralyzing the center of the city.
Both the United States and Colorado have a great deal at stake in this election. What better way to ease the immigration problem than for Mexico to have the kind of economic growth that would allow its workers to live and prosper in Mexico rather than having to come to the United States?
And for Colorado, our exports to Mexico soared from $154 million in 1993 to $689 million in 2004, an increase of 346 percent. This is a much greater increase than for any other of our major markets, creating jobs for Coloradans and putting Mexico in second place behind Canada in our state’s trade.
I went to Mexico twice to observe the election process. The first visit was from June 29 through Election Day, July 2, when I interviewed dozens of Mexicans in both Guadalajara (where Colorado has had a trade office since 1994) and Mexico City. I asked voters whom they would vote for and why, what the issues were and how they felt about the election process.
I returned to Mexico City on Aug. 19 and stayed in the Majestic Hotel, which looks out onto the Zócalo, spending three days observing the protests and talking to people.
A tiny, older man named Emilio was standing at the entrance to the Majestic. He had been working as a tour guide for 40 years but said this protest has devastated his business. The hotel claimed to be 20 percent full but I rarely saw another guest and certainly not any other Americans.
The López Obrador supporters had taken over the entire Zócalo and erected a U-shaped series of large tents in which they were living. At the open end, facing the Presidential Palace, was a stand where musicians played and various members of López Obrador’s team gave speeches.
Thinking that the mood might be uglier than during my earlier trip, I hid my watch and passport, took a cheap camera and wandered up the Avenida Francisco Madero. Once a major route connecting the Zócalo with the Museo de Bellas Artes, the Alameda Park and the Avenida Reforma, it was totally blocked by large booths.
Inside them, you could watch videos of López Obrador, listen to singers and speakers, play chess, see soccer matches or a Brad Pitt film on TV, get free food or buy political memorabilia like cups, pins, glasses, CDs or even T-shirts showing López Obrador.
You could even draw caricatures of his opponent, Felipe Calderón, or of current President Vicente Fox, who is from the same political party. Calderón was generally portrayed as the “rata de dos patas” (“two-legged rat”) and Fox as the traitor.
This was a well-organized and -funded protest, and the mood was much friendlier than I had expected. Everyone was extremely helpful, and many people expressed surprise and appreciation that an American would take the time to see what was happening in their country.
At no time did I see any caricatures or hear any comments about the United States, President Bush or our current immigration debate. As I was told a number of times, Mexicans were going to resolve their issues without blaming outsiders.
López Obrador spoke one evening. Although he was calm and composed, he ridiculed and demeaned both his opponents and the electoral process. We were in a crowded space between the huge tents and I realized that the crowd was actually quite small.
Although a few people waved flags, most chatted with each other or just wandered around. I also had time to explore the tent city, peeking into the sleeping areas to try to estimate how many people were actually living there. I eventually concluded that it was much fewer than my original estimate of 2,000 to 3,000.
Away from the Zócalo, it was as if this encampment didn’t exist, either physically or in the minds of the people I interviewed.
Before I left, I spoke with Elias Fernández from Queretaro, a coordinator for López Obrador, and asked what would happen if the election tribunal ruled that the contest was fair and that Calderón was the winner. He shook his head, unable to conceive of that happening.
What happens next? When will this tent city be cleared out? Will there be violence? Will the country unite behind Calderón in order to carry out the reforms that are so badly needed?
López Obrador may have made a huge mistake in mounting this protest, but he will push on. It doesn’t matter to him that he has reinforced impressions in some minds that he’s “dangerous” and that his protest has caused economic damage for lower income working people like Emilio the guide, the staff at hotels like the Majestic and others in the tourism or service industries.
My impression, however, was that the protest was much smaller than earlier press reports had indicated and that López Obrador had driven away many of his initial supporters.
In Colorado, we also are facing a change of leadership. I would urge whoever wins the governor’s race to not only maintain Colorado’s trade office but find other ways to strengthen and advance this relationship. Rather than simply arguing about immigration problems, we ought to do our share to stop the problem at its source.
That means helping Mexico develop the kind of economy that will allow Mexicans to live, work and prosper within their own country.
Morgan Smith opened Colorado’s International Trade Office in Guadalajara, Mexico, and started the Colorado-Mexico Air Quality Initiative, a project whereby scientists and air quality officials from Colorado worked with their Mexican counterparts on the problem of vehicle emissions.
