The Colorado and U.S. economies appear to be gliding to a soft landing heading into 2007, although a slowdown in consumer spending could cause them to sputter, economists said Thursday at a gathering of construction-industry workers.
“I don’t see the U.S. economy going in the tank by any means,” said Richard Wobbekind, a University of Colorado economist. “But if we were to see incredibly weak holiday sales, we should keep our seat belts fastened.”
Wobbekind, speaking in Denver at an annual economic forum hosted by the trade group Constructors and Designers Alliance, was joined by Colorado’s two gubernatorial candidates, Democrat Bill Ritter and Republican Bob Beauprez.
Ritter, a former Denver district attorney, and Beauprez, a banker and U.S. congressman, touted themselves as pro-business politicians.
“As governor, if a piece of legislation that is bad for business comes to my desk, I’ll recognize it and I’ll veto it,” said Beauprez, who added that he is opposed to the fall ballot initiative to raise the state’s minimum wage.
Beauprez outlined a set of priorities to benefit business, including opposing new health-care mandates, reforming illegal immigration and maintaining limits on lawsuit damages.
Ritter, who favors the minimum-wage initiative, said as governor he would seek to promote tourism, transportation and increase funding for education.
“In my first 90 days as governor I will appoint a blue-ribbon commission on how to finance and implement a 21st-century transportation system,” he said.
Ritter said he planned to craft economic-development packages geared to particular areas of the state and promote renewable energy investment in all areas of Colorado. He described the role of governor, in part, as marketing the state to companies that might locate here.
Wobbekind, meanwhile, said he is not opposed to increasing the minimum wage for workers – but only on a national basis.
As for his forecast, Wobbekind called for 1.9 percent job growth in Colorado in 2007, down from an expected 2.2 percent job growth this year.
He noted that Colorado is “showing relative strength” compared with the nation, where he predicts 1.3 percent job growth.
Adding jobs is a key factor in driving retail sales, population growth and the housing market. One area of caution, he said, is weakness and oversupply in the national housing market.
Wobbekind said his research indicates Colorado’s population will grow by 90,000 people next year, or 1.6 percent, a rate faster than the 1 percent nationwide.
Wobbekind is also predicting that the nation’s gross domestic product – a key measure of economic health – will grow by about 3 percent in 2007. That’s slightly below this year’s expected growth rate of 3.5 percent.
Cliff Brewis, an economist with McGraw-Hill Construction, said the economy appears stable – although portions of the construction industry are poised for a slowdown.
He said the residential market has clearly softened, although “we don’t expect it to fall off the shelf.”
He added that office and hotel construction is on the rise, as are publicly financed projects such as schools and prisons.
“Public works is one of the most attractive (areas) right now,” he said.
Staff writer Will Shanley can be reached at 303-954-1260 or wshanley@denverpost.com.
