Much has been made of a possible “blue tidal wave” this November, swelling Democratic ranks in Congress. Below the radar screen, the political parties are battling for an unusual number of governorships, and the GOP majority may be at risk.
Of course Colorado features one battle.
Republicans now hold 28 gubernatorial seats to the Democrats’ 22. Democrats lost their majority of both Congress and governors’ mansions in 1994. That has boosted Republicans nationally because governors help raise money for their parties, make critical political and judicial appointments and exert influence over congressional redistricting. Governorships are breeding grounds for future national leaders, including four of the five most recent presidents.
But Republicans are worried about their gubernatorial prospects Nov. 7. September polling shows Democrats ahead for 27 governorships and Republicans 22. (One race is deadlocked in current polling.) Pick-ups for Democrats could include New York and Ohio. Among the battleground states recently polled by Zogby Interactive, Democrats were ahead in 12 races, Republicans led in six while one had “mixed results,” according to the poll.
Colorado could be one of the states where the governorship changes hands. Republican Bill Owens is term-limited, and Democrat Bill Ritter has been leading in the polls to succeed him. More important, perhaps, Ritter has been out-fundraising the Republican candidate, Bob Beauprez.
Winning a majority of gubernatorial seats would be a huge morale boost for Democrats this year, but it also could boost the party’s legislative agenda and its prospects for the 2008 national election.
Republicans began paying greater attention to legislatures and governorships as part of their national strategy in the 1980s and 1990s. Much of the Republicans’ national agenda in the 1990s, such as term limits and budget and welfare reform, bubbled up from statehouses. George Bush emerged from the Texas governorship to win the presidency in 2000, just as Arkansas’ Bill Clinton did for the Democrats in 1992.
Governors help their parties win national elections. In 2000 and 2004 Owens spent a good bit of his political capital helping elect President Bush. (Some say he spent too much time in 2004 worrying about the president only to suffer a string of statehouse and initiative setbacks.)
One consequence of the Republicans’ success over recent years is that it leaves the GOP with much to defend. Add governorships to the challenge for Republicans in 2006.
