The way Andy Holland figures it, hunting in many of the elk-rich portions of western Colorado is a boom-and-bust sort of thing.
Hunters shoot lots of bulls one year, then suffer through some degree of down cycle the next – particularly in those places that offer over-the-counter licenses.
If this basic tenet of mathematics holds true, elk zealots can expect plenty of horns when the first season begins Oct. 14.
“Lots of 3- and 4-year-olds,” the Durango-based biologist predicted. “Big five-points and small sixes.”
The hard facts are these: After a record 63,000 bag in 2004, the harvest nose-dived to 56,000 last year. Whether you chalk it up to bad hunting conditions or simply the ebb and flow of the cycle, the effect is the same – more and bigger horns this season.
If that weren’t enough to get hunters’ hearts beating faster, now comes another, admittedly less scientific pulse booster.
“It looks like a good weather pattern developing. I think we’ll have weather to help hunting this year,” said Scott Wait, DOW’s chief biologist for the Southwest Region.
It’s not just that Wait feels the change in his bones – which, after all, comes about as close as anything that can be expected from the folks on TV. The veteran woods watcher sees the signs at every turn.
“I’ve already lost my garden to frost this year, which is unusual for Durango,” Wait said of a situation whose implications reach thousands of feet up to timberline.
When a hard freeze turns exposed grass dry and brittle, elk rather quickly migrate downhill into the trees, where ample forage remains.
“With the snow we’ve had, the first season should go really well for elk hunters,” Montrose-based biologist Brad Banulis predicted. “It should bring a lot of elk down out of the alpine.”
Hunters who turn out for this first of four hunt sessions – open only to holders of limited draw licenses – should follow a food trail that almost always will lead to pockets of grass tucked inside patches of dense forest.
Once the shooting starts, elk seldom stray far from cover; finding them generally becomes more difficult as the season progresses.
“If you’re going to hunt the first rifle season, the best advice I can give is to make the most of the first two days,” Steamboat Springs biologist Jeff Yost said. “After that, they know where to move onto private property.”
Beyond that, most variables hinge on the weather. Many hunters bet on late-season storms that tend to drive animals to the lowest elevations, another form of a numbers game that concentrates the most elk in the smallest space.
Where, and when, that arrives is anyone’s guess. An uncommonly moist late summer and autumn, punctuated by the drama of last week’s big snowstorm, suggests an early winter to Wait and other observers.
Meanwhile, a high pressure system has splashed the region with many days of warm sunshine, a turn certain to melt much of the snow and at least partially dry out forest roads that quickly became thick with mud.
In any case, traditional elk areas offer prime prospects for those with both bull or cow tags. Meeker biologist Darby Finley touts the Flat Tops east toward Yampa, the Bears Ears near Craig and, if deeper snow comes, game management units farther west such as 3, 11 and 211. Elk abound throughout the Routt National Forest, in North Park, the Roaring Fork Drainage and the upper Colorado River Basin.
In the southwest, look to the entire expanse of the San Juan Mountains, the Gunnison country and the upper Rio Grande Basin.
As everyone knows, much depends upon what happens with the weather over the next 2 1/2 weeks and beyond. For that, what Scott Wait feels in his bones is as good a guess as any.
Charlie Meyers can be reached at 303-954-1609 or cmeyers@denverpost.com.
