Miami is out of the rankings. Rutgers is in. Wake Forest is undefeated and Colorado is winless. A crazy September ends Saturday with conference play kicking into high gear, a perfect time for antsy athletic directors to lie, “A new season starts tomorrow.”
With a $14 million to $17 million paycheck tied to BCS bowls, conference titles are huge, but 17th-ranked Texas Christian’s collapse Thursday night against Brigham Young helps assure that the BCS will be as exclusive as always. Here’s a look at the 11 conferences in order of unofficial ranking:
SOUTHEASTERN
Who’s hot: Auburn (5-0). New defensive coordinator Will Muschamp has Tigers sacking quarterbacks left and right while making Louisiana State’s offense look like Louisiana-Monroe’s. Survived a scare Thursday, beating South Carolina 24-17.
Who’s not: Mississippi (1-3). Which is worse, losing to Wake Forest at home, 27-3, or losing to Kentucky anywhere? Tennessee transfer Brent Schaeffer (5 INT, 3 TD) not living up to savior status.
Game to watch: Florida at Auburn, Oct. 14. If Florida gets by visiting LSU next week, this will be between two teams in the top five.
Analysis: Shouldn’t any team that goes through this death row of a conference unbeaten receive an automatic berth in the BCS Championship?
BIG TEN
Who’s hot: Michigan (4-0). From No. 14 in preseason to No. 6 in a month, coach Lloyd Carr has gone from hot seat to just plain hot. Add first-year defensive coordinator Ron English to list of hot, young assistants. Who’s not: Northwestern (2-2). No Big Ten team should lose to Nevada and I-AA New Hampshire. The death of coach Randy Walker has had more effect than anyone feared.
Game to watch: Michigan at Ohio State, Nov. 18. If form holds, Ohio State can reach the national title game with a win and Michigan can get into a major bowl game. Just like old times.
Analysis: Saturday night’s game at Iowa is a trap for Ohio State, but the Buckeyes have it all: great defense, explosive players, star quality.
BIG 12
Who’s hot: Missouri (4-0). OK, so it has toasted four marshmallows. So have plenty of others, and the Tigers still lead the nation in defense.
Who’s not: Colorado (0-4). How long can its impressive defense hold on until the offense matures? The winless Buffaloes are looking at possibly their worst season in more than two decades.
Game to watch: Oklahoma-Texas at Dallas, Oct. 7. This is the most evenly matched Red River Rivalry in years, and winner likely gets berth in the league title game.
Analysis: Colt McCoy is improving every week, and Texas learned much from the Ohio State loss. Defending national champ is still the team to beat.
PAC-10
Who’s hot: California (3-1). Since pratfall in opener at Tennessee, has outscored Minnesota, Portland State and Arizona State by average of 44-18, and Nate Longshore has thrown 10 TD passes.
Who’s not: Stanford (0-4). Dead last in nation in total defense, and the Cardinal’s leading rusher after four games has all of 201 yards. Only winnable games left are Arizona and Oregon State. Good thing Stanford’s smart.
Game to watch: California at Southern California, Nov. 18. No. 20 Bears must beat No. 14 Oregon at home Oct. 7, but they’re playing like their preseason billing as USC’s biggest threat.
Analysis: Pac-10 is bottom-heavy, and it would take a monumental upset for USC not to go unbeaten in conference play.
BIG EAST
Who’s hot: Louisville (4-0). Lost its All-America candidates at quarterback and tailback but still rolling thanks to a defense that’s probably better than West Virginia’s. Keep that in mind.
Who’s not: Cincinnati (1-3). This isn’t fair. It lost to Pittsburgh, Ohio State and Virginia Tech, but it’s the only Big East team with a losing mark. That’s how improved the league is.
Game to watch: West Virginia at Louisville, Nov. 2. It’s for a BCS berth, simple as that, and Louisville QB Brian Brohm should be healed by then.
Analysis: Conference will stop taking heat after West Virginia and Louisville thrill the nation in what could be most entertaining game of year.
ATLANTIC COAST
Who’s hot: Wake Forest (4-0). Demon Deacons will be 5-0 when they beat I-AA Liberty on Saturday despite loss of QB in opener and running back and left offensive tackle in third game. A big thank-you to the 10 returning starters on defense.
Who’s not: North Carolina (1-3). Nebraska bust Joe Dailey has been a bust at Carolina, handing QB reins to freshman Cam Sexton. And defense is last in ACC. Not a good combination.
Game to watch: Clemson at Virginia Tech, Oct. 26. This conference has become so weak, these two may have rematch in ACC championship.
Analysis: Virginia Tech is its best team and is ranked just 11th. But this tells you more: The ACC is 3-4 against the Big East Conference, which is has raided for three teams.
MOUNTAIN WEST
Who’s hot: BYU (3-2). Giving TCU its first home loss in since the 2004 season finale shows Bronco Mendenhall has the Cougars back.
Who’s not: San Diego State (0-3). QB Kevin O’Connell goes down in the opener with a thumb injury and Aztecs score one TD in next two games. O’Connell isn’t due back until Air Force Oct. 21.
Game to watch: BYU at Utah, Nov. 25. This always-bitter intrastate rivalry is competitive again, and this could be for the conference title.
Analysis: Horned Frogs make BCS bowl if finish in top 16 and ahead of a BCS conference champ or in top 12. No Mountain West offense appears ready to change destiny.
WESTERN ATHLETIC
Who’s hot: Boise State (4-0). Here’s what Dan Hawkins left: nine returning starters on offense plus a defense holding foes to 14.5 ppg.
Who’s not: Utah State (0-4). Mark offensive coordinator Mike Santiago as the first casualty of the coaching profession. He resigned Monday after the offense did not score in four games.
Game to watch: Fresno State at Boise State, Nov. 1. Fresno State has fallen off the map but it is still the best of the rest.
Analysis: San Jose State, New Mexico State and Idaho are no longer pushovers, but it’s still a long ways from Las Cruces, N.M., to Boise.
CONFERENCE USA
Who’s hot: Houston (4-0). QB Kevin Kolb is being pushed for Heisman candidacy with 12 TD passes and one interception. Cougars 4-0 for first time in 16 years.
Who’s not: Rice (0-4). What do you expect? Owls started season against Houston, at UCLA, Texas and at Florida State. Five of next six are on road.
Game to watch: Houston at Southern Mississippi, Oct. 14. No team, including N.C. State, has scored more than two TDs on Golden Eagles and Kolb gets his biggest test.
Analysis: Texas-El Paso will get better in West and look out for Tulsa. Despite low profile, C-USA may have best division races in country.
MID-AMERICAN
Who’s hot: Western Michigan (3-1). Remember name Mark Bonds. Junior tailback averaging 100 yards a game for surprising Broncos who won at Virginia and blew out Toledo.
Who’s not: Eastern Michigan (0-4). Eagles haven’t won more than four games in 10 years. Make it 11.
Game to watch: Toledo at Northern Illinois, Nov. 7. Despite NIU’s stumble against Ohio, this should be for West Division title.
Analysis: Fall off of Bowling Green and Miami of Ohio have made MAC a much more balanced conference. And Turner Gill has made Buffalo respectable.
SUN BELT
Who’s hot: Are you kidding? It’s 3-22 against I-A foes and one win was Middle Tennessee’s league victory over North Texas. This is like picking the least-rancid piece of last week’s fruit.
Who’s not: Florida Atlantic (0-4). Tough choice but Owls get nod for being outscored 192-20. But they’ve played at Clemson, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and South Carolina. Thanks, Mr. A.D.
Game to watch: North Texas at Louisiana-Lafayette, Nov. 11. These are the two preseason favorites. No need to set your watch.
Analysis: Attendance is up, but every team is a potential homecoming opponent.
John Henderson can be reached at 303-954-1299 or jhenderson@denverpost.com.
