Seoul, South Korea – North Korea has boasted it has nuclear weapons, but actually detonating an atomic device would finally separate the reality from the rhetoric.
The timing of a test would likely aim to coincide with a significant anniversary in the country, many of which revolve around the communist party and cult of personality surrounding leader Kim Jong-Il and his late father Kim Il-Sung, the nation’s founder.
The first chance is Sunday, marking the ninth year since Kim Jong-Il assumed the top job of the Workers Party of Korea.
A U.S. military plane capable of detecting radiation took off from southern Japan on Thursday, Japanese media reported. The mission is believed to be part of American monitoring efforts two days after North Korea threatened to conduct a nuclear test to prove it is a nuclear power.
In the event of a test, North Korea remains so isolated already from the world that there is little most countries could do to punish it diplomatically.
That’s why tough words of warning this week from China and South Korea – the North’s top two trade partners and sources of aid – could be the strongest discouragement to Pyongyang.
Military action by the U.S. or other countries is unlikely because the American military is already overextended in Iraq and Afghanistan. The North has one of the world’s largest armies, a force of more than 1 million, and immense conventional firepower aimed at the neighboring South and its nearby capital, Seoul, would immediately cause massive civilian deaths.
Experts believe North Korea likely is able to build at least a basic type of atomic weapon – but probably not something small and light enough to mount on a long-range missile that could strike the U.S.
